Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a strong fluctuation in lithium prices in the short term, supported by a backdrop of price reassessment across key metals [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel and coal production in 2026, which, combined with Vale's suspension of nickel mining, is expected to tighten supply and support nickel prices [1] - The cobalt market is expected to remain structurally tight, with prices likely to rise further due to ongoing supply constraints [2][5] - The antimony market is showing signs of recovery in exports, which may lead to domestic prices converging with higher international prices [6][18] - The lithium market is experiencing a continuous destocking trend, with prices expected to remain strong due to stable demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [8][19] - The rare earth market is tightening due to new export restrictions from Vietnam, which may further support prices [20] - The tin market faces uncertainties in supply due to ongoing issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's government plans to cut nickel production by approximately 34% in 2026, reducing the target to 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - Vale's Indonesian operations have halted nickel mining, contributing to supply tightness [1] - The cobalt market is expected to face structural supply constraints, with prices projected to rise due to a decrease in available export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][5] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise as supply remains tight, particularly with winter mining activities slowing down [6][18] - The Chinese government has implemented export controls that may further tighten supply and support higher domestic prices [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased to 118,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a 16.76% rise [8] - Continuous destocking in the lithium market is expected to support prices, with demand from the electric vehicle sector remaining robust [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - New export restrictions from Vietnam are expected to tighten global rare earth supply, supporting prices [20] - China continues to dominate the rare earth supply chain, with significant production capacity compared to other countries [20] Tin Industry Update - The tin market is facing uncertainties due to supply issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] - Recent increases in tin imports from Myanmar may help alleviate some supply concerns, but overall uncertainty remains [21]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 27 日 短期锂价仍持续看涨，看好价格重估背景下的 关键金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼 26 年镍矿配额或下调叠加对镍矿伴生资源额外 征税税负，对镍矿价格或有支撑 截止到 12 月 24 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15435 美元/ 吨，较 12 月 17 日上涨 8.13%，LME 镍总库存为 255696 吨， 较 12 月 17 日增加 0.67%；沪镍报收 12.68 万元/吨，较 12 月 19 日上涨 8.38%，沪镍库存为 45,280 吨，较 12 月 19 日增加 0.02%；截止到 12 月 26 日，硫酸镍报收 26,900 元/吨，较 12 月 19 日价格下跌 2.36%。根据 SMM，印尼原料方面，火法矿 方面，从供应角度来看，印尼主要镍矿产区正处于活跃雨季， 导致部分矿山生产受阻。截止这周，印尼林业部执法行动仍在 延续，受此监管压力，矿山普遍维持惜售/观望态度，出货节 奏趋于保守。需求端来看，NPI 冶炼厂的采购 ...