证券研究报告 行业研究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 资源国竞相管制矿产出口 助有色行业长期景气 核[心T观ab点le：_Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 2 月 25 日下午，多家国际媒体几乎同时报道锂矿的重磅消息。据 Reuters 报 道，津巴布韦政府宣布立即暂停所有原材料及锂精矿出口，包括正在运输途中 的货物。矿业部长表示，该禁令"即刻生效，直至另行通知"，Bloomberg 几 乎也同步进行了报道。该国原则上计划 2027 年禁止精矿出口；当前在当地拥 有锂盐或硫酸锂生产产能的企业仍可申请锂精矿出口许可证，且硫酸锂目前允 许出口。未来仅持有效采矿权及获批选矿厂的企业具备出口资格，禁止代理及 第三方贸易商出口。申请时需提交省级矿业办关于选矿能力及合规的建议信， 并申报矿物成分。违规者（如续用过期待办）将吊销出口许可乃至采矿权。 表 1、津巴布韦暂停锂矿原矿出口政策进展 | 日期 | 津巴布韦锂矿出口管制进展 | | --- | --- | | 2月17日 | 该国矿业与采矿发展部部长文件通知津巴布韦矿业协会,政府高度关注采矿业在矿产出 | | | 口过程中持续存在的违规行为,决定重新调整所有矿产 ...

据路透社2月18日报道，美国已与乌兹别克斯坦签署协议，以确保更稳定地获取后者的关键矿产资源。 随着全球能源转型与科技革命加速推进，关键矿产已从单纯的工业原料跃升为重塑全球产业格局与地缘 政治版图的关键要素之一。在这一领域，各国合作与博弈的触角从非洲加丹加高原的铜钴富矿带延伸至 太平洋海底的多金属结核，从拉美安第斯山脉的"锂三角"延伸至中亚腹地的稀土矿床。《环球时报》从 今天起将推出"关键矿产博弈"系列报道，在"中亚篇"中，我们将为您讲述中亚五国蕴藏着怎样的关键矿 产资源，美国、欧盟、日本等在该地区如何落子布局，这场围绕关键矿产的博弈又将如何撬动国际能源 格局。 "跻身全球前20大战略资源生产国之列" 萨里塔格矿区位于塔吉克斯坦西部的陡峭山谷中。在海拔4000米山峰之下纵横交错的巷道中，矿工们正 奋力开采锑矿。这是一种银灰色的金属，曾经以化妆品成分而为人所知，如今已成为战略性产业的关键 资源，可被用于制造太阳能电池板和加固军用车辆装甲。 "塔吉克斯坦有许多锑矿床。"塔尔科黄金公司副总监朱马佐达对法新社这样说。该公司锑供应量占全球 10%。根据美国地质调查局的数据，2023年塔吉克斯坦锑产量约为2.1万吨，占全球 ...

【环球时报驻哈萨克斯坦特派记者 李强 环球时报特约记者 杨逸】 编者的话： 据路透社2月18日报道，美国已与乌兹别克斯坦签署协议，以确保更 稳定地获取后者的关键矿产资源。随着全球能源转型与科技革命加速推进，关键矿产已从单纯的工业原料跃升为重塑全球产业格局与地缘政治版 图的关键要素之一。在这一领域，各国合作与博弈的触角从非洲加丹加高原的铜钴富矿带延伸至太平洋海底的多金属结核，从拉美安第斯山脉 的"锂三角"延伸至中亚腹地的稀土矿床。《环球时报》从今天起将推出"关键矿产博弈"系列报道，在"中亚篇"中，我们将为您讲述中亚五国蕴藏 着怎样的关键矿产资源，美国、欧盟、日本等在该地区如何落子布局，这场围绕关键矿产的博弈又将如何撬动国际能源格局。 " 跻身全球前 20 大战略资源生产国之列 " 萨里塔格矿区位于塔吉克斯坦西部的陡峭山谷中。在海拔4000米山峰之下纵横交错的巷道中，矿工们正奋力开采锑矿。这是一种银灰色的金属， 曾经以化妆品成分而为人所知，如今已成为战略性产业的关键资源，可被用于制造太阳能电池板和加固军用车辆装甲。 "塔吉克斯坦有许多锑矿床。"塔尔科黄金公司副总监朱马佐达对法新社这样说。该公司锑供应量占全球10% ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is the strategic competition between the US and Japan to secure critical mineral resources, driven by concerns over China's dominance in this sector [1][3][15] - The US has initiated a "Treasury Plan" with a budget of $12 billion to stockpile essential minerals, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign sources, particularly China [1][3] - Japan is actively exploring seabed resources, specifically rare earth elements, with the "Chikyū" deep-sea vessel successfully extracting mineral-rich sediment from the Minami-Tori-shima area [5][7] Group 2 - In 2025, the US Department of Defense and the Department of Energy plan to invest several billion dollars in domestic rare earth producers to enhance mineral security [3][5] - A cooperation agreement was signed between Japan and the US, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in various sectors, including nuclear energy, AI, and critical minerals [5][11] - The competition for critical minerals is not limited to the US and Japan; African nations like the Democratic Republic of the Congo are implementing export quota policies, affecting global cobalt prices and supply chains [9][11] Group 3 - Despite the significant investments, experts warn that the high costs and technical challenges of deep-sea mining could delay commercial viability for at least a decade [9][15] - China currently controls approximately 70% of global rare earth production and 90% of processing, creating substantial barriers for other nations attempting to compete [13][15] - The article highlights the increasing assertiveness of resource-rich countries in Africa, which are becoming less willing to allow resources to flow to any single nation [15]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report expresses optimism for key metals in the future despite recent price declines due to market panic [1] - Supply tightening expectations remain for nickel, cobalt, antimony, lithium, rare earths, tin, tungsten, and uranium, which may support prices in the coming months [1][2][8][11][13][14][22] Nickel and Cobalt Industry Summary - As of January 30, LME nickel settled at $17,540 per ton, down 5.85% from January 23, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 0.90% to 286,284 tons [1] - Supply constraints are expected due to increased rainfall in Indonesia affecting mining and shipping operations, alongside regulatory pressures leading to conservative sales strategies [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel mining quotas to 250-260 million tons, which is anticipated to support nickel prices [1][16] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 446,000 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 1.83% [2][17] Antimony Industry Summary - Antimony prices have increased, with antimony ingot averaging 162,500 yuan per ton as of January 29, up 1.25% [6] - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to production halts at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry, which may reduce output by over 2,000 tons [6][19] Lithium Industry Summary - Lithium carbonate prices fell to 160,400 yuan per ton as of January 30, down 6.22% [8] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to environmental assessments delaying mining operations in Jiangxi, impacting future supply [8] - Demand is expected to remain strong, potentially stabilizing prices despite recent declines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Summary - The report highlights tightening supply expectations for rare earths, particularly due to new regulations in Vietnam and ongoing geopolitical tensions [20] - The global rare earth supply chain remains heavily reliant on China, which continues to dominate production capabilities [20] Tin Industry Summary - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, with LME tin settling at $54,000 per ton as of January 30, down 0.37% [11] - Supply concerns persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing regulatory actions in Indonesia [11][12] Tungsten Industry Summary - Tungsten prices have seen significant increases, with white tungsten concentrate priced at 597,500 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 11.58% [13] - Supply constraints are expected to continue due to strict mining quotas and environmental regulations [13][21] Uranium Industry Summary - Uranium prices remain high, with global market prices at $63.51 per pound, supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [14][22] - The report indicates a persistent supply-demand gap in the uranium market, with expectations for continued price support [14][22]

Group 1 - The core transformation in wealth discussions has shifted from real estate to resource topics, indicating a significant change in investment focus for ordinary people [1][3] - The traditional reliance on real estate as a wealth vehicle is losing its effectiveness, as the economic growth drivers are changing [5][11] - The old economic model, characterized by investment, export, and consumption, is reaching its limits, necessitating a shift to new growth drivers [9][11] Group 2 - The new growth drivers are identified as technology innovation, green transition, and security assurance, all of which are interconnected and emphasize the importance of resources [13][19] - Technology innovation is evolving from isolated breakthroughs to integrated industry applications, enhancing value creation [15][19] - The green transition is framed as a global resource competition, with critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel becoming essential for the new energy landscape [19][27] Group 3 - The demand for key minerals is expected to surge due to the ongoing energy transition, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance [29][31] - Resources are viewed as a dual-value asset, providing both a hedge against economic uncertainty and growth potential during prosperous times [33][39] - Four key resources are highlighted for investment focus in 2026: copper, lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, each linked to the new economic drivers [35][37][39] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on the entire industrial chain rather than merely speculating on price increases, emphasizing companies with integrated operations and technological advancements [41][43] - The shift from real estate to resource investment reflects a broader change in economic philosophy, prioritizing quality and innovation over mere expansion [43][45] - The ongoing wealth reshuffling is an opportunity for those who can adapt to the new economic landscape and recognize the value of resource investments [45]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, supporting antimony prices, with average prices for antimony ingots at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant legislative changes in Vietnam impacting global supply [20] - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound, significantly higher than historical lows [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to remain tight, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry - Antimony prices are supported by long-term supply tightness, with domestic production facing seasonal disruptions [6][18] Lithium Industry - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and ongoing supply constraints, with significant price increases noted [8][19] Rare Earth Industry - Legislative changes in Vietnam are tightening global rare earth supply, with China maintaining a dominant position in the market [20] Tin Industry - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise further due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the political maneuvering by the U.S. under President Trump to pressure allied nations into reducing their reliance on Chinese rare earths, threatening tariffs and quotas if they do not comply within 180 days [1][4][5] - Japan emerged as a prominent player during the meeting, showcasing its efforts to diversify its rare earth supply sources, yet it faced backlash from the U.S. for not aligning quickly enough with American demands [3][4] - The article emphasizes the critical role of rare earths in modern industries, including electric vehicles and advanced military technology, underscoring the urgency of the U.S. strategy to secure alternative supply chains [4][5][10] Group 2 - China currently dominates global rare earth production and refining capabilities, which is a source of anxiety for the U.S. as it struggles to establish its own supply chain [5][10] - The U.S. strategy of pressuring allies to reduce dependence on China may backfire, leading to a loss of trust among allies and potential instability in global rare earth prices [10][11] - The article argues that the U.S. approach lacks a coherent strategy and instead relies on coercive tactics, which may ultimately jeopardize the long-term stability of its alliances and supply chains [11]

矿业价值链包括勘探、采选、冶炼加工、精加工、运输与分销、回收与终端处置等环节，链条深长、工 艺复杂，任何节点的干扰都可能波及上下游，形成供应链风险。特别是，与能源转型相关的锂、镍、钴 等金属矿呈现种类多、品位低、资源分布分散等特征，造成其供应在资源禀赋和技术能力等方面更受限 制，安全保障难度显着提高。在多重不确定性叠加下，能源转型金属矿的产业链比较脆弱，投资风险偏 高。 我国虽在能源转型金属矿的加工精炼环节具有优势，但矿种来源主要依赖进口。以锂、钴为例，我国 2022年消费量在全球占比分别为65.9%和42.8%，但国内矿山产量在全球占比仅约为14%和1%，绝大部 分由外部供应。为强化供应链韧性，近年国内矿产公司积极涉足能源转型金属矿的海外投资，紫金矿 业、赣锋锂业、洛阳钼业、华友钴业等都在此列。 值得注意的是，随着全球矿产投资的增加，各方对矿产资源的争夺更为加剧，资源国地区的地缘政治冲 突与资源民族主义也同步兴起。尤其，全球矿产资源禀赋分布不均，矿业投资多发生于资源国，而资本 约束与终端消费主要来自国际市场与下游工业国，故单一国家的法律对跨国矿业投资的约束存在天然边 界。在资源国监管能力不足与跨境执法不易的 ...

Core Insights - Greenland has become a focal point due to its vast natural resources and strategic location, with significant reserves of rare earth elements, oil, natural gas, and minerals essential for electric vehicle production [3][8][9] Resource Potential - Greenland's proven rare earth reserves amount to 28.2 million tons, ranking it among the top globally [3] - The island is estimated to hold up to 90 billion barrels of oil and over 1,600 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which could significantly impact global energy dynamics [8] - Lithium reserves in Greenland, particularly at Cape Farewell, are estimated at 2.8 million tons, accounting for about 10% of the world's current lithium resources, attracting interest from companies like Tesla [9] Strategic Importance - Greenland's geographical position makes it a key hub for the Arctic shipping routes, which can save 9 to 15 days of transit time compared to traditional routes, enhancing its commercial viability [5][6] - The Arctic shipping routes are viewed as potentially transformative for global trade, akin to the Suez and Panama Canals [6] Environmental and Cultural Considerations - The indigenous Inuit population has a deep connection to the land, and large-scale industrial development could disrupt their traditional lifestyle and cultural heritage [10] - Experts emphasize the need for respecting indigenous rights and ensuring their participation in resource development to achieve sustainable growth [10]