铜：本周LME铜价+2.21%到12133.0美元/吨，沪铜+5.95%到9.87万元/吨。供应端，据SMM，进口铜精 矿加工费周度指数跌至-44.9美元/吨；截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存环比周一增加14.96%，连续三 周累库，总库存同比去年同期增长8.82万吨。冶炼端，据SMM，本周SMM废产阳极板企业开工率为 64.60%，环比下降1.08个百分点。预计下周开工率环比下降0.62个百分点至64.06%。消费端，据SMM， 本周国内铜线缆企业开工率双降，行业表现承压。受铜价高位拖累，采购情绪与新增订单疲软，叠加成 本倒挂，企业减产增多。元旦临近，订单颓势难改，预期下周开工率继续回落；高铜价对市场需求形成 显著抑制，本周国内漆包线行业表现未达预期，行业开机率环比下降1.67个百分点，回落至76.6%。近 期铜价快速冲高并再创阶段性新高，终端企业采购意愿降至冰点，企业陷入观望"躺平"状态。铜价高位 运行背景下，漆包线行业需求抑制效应持续凸显，短期内景气度将延续低迷态势。 铝：本周LME铝价+0.03%到2956.50美元/吨，沪铝+0.99%到2.24万元/吨。供应端，据SMM，本周四国 内主流消费地电解铝 ...

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.21% to $12,133.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 5.95% to 98,700 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 14.96% week-on-week, with total inventory up by 88,200 tons year-on-year [1] - High copper prices are suppressing market demand, leading to a decline in operating rates for domestic wire and cable enterprises [1] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.03% to $2,956.50 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.99% to 22,400 yuan per ton [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded 617,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 17,000 tons [2] - The overall operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8% due to weak orders and high aluminum prices [2] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 3.24% to $4,505.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 15.73 tons to 1,068.27 tons [3] - Geopolitical risks are influencing the gold market, leading to a strong oscillation pattern [3] - The market is anticipating significant developments in international relations that could impact gold prices [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 3.33% this week [4] - China's rare earth permanent magnet exports in November increased by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the same period [4] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is boosting demand forecasts for rare earths [4] Group 5: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 6.94% to 103,400 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 3.22% to 89,800 yuan per ton [5] - Lithium production increased to 22,200 tons this week, with a slight rise in output [5] - The supply-demand balance remains stable, with strong demand from the new energy sector supporting high prices [5] Group 6: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.85% this week, attributed to profit-taking by speculative funds [4] - The outlook remains positive for antimony prices due to expected recovery in exports and stable demand [4] - Resource scarcity and reduced production from overseas mines are expected to support upward price trends [4] Group 7: Tin - Tin price decreased by 1.07% this week, with inventory increasing by 4.72% [4] - Supply disruptions in major overseas tin mining regions are contributing to price fluctuations [4] - The long-term outlook for tin remains positive due to expected demand growth in sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [4] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 7.0% to $15,700 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose by 12.0% to 125,000 yuan per ton [5] - Nickel market sentiment turned optimistic due to potential supply tightening from Indonesia [5] - Current market dynamics reflect a balance between strong expectations and weak demand realities [5]

国金证券近日发布有色金属周报：氧化镨钕本周价格环比下降0.88%。据SMM多家原矿分离企业因年末 环保督查趋严等因素在12月份停产，月度产量可能减少20-25%；10月我国磁材出口量同比、环比分别 +16%、-5%；结合往后出口更加宽松的预期，我们对后续需求更加高看一眼；外部抢出口叠加供改持 续推进，稀土供需共振可期。 铜：本周LME铜价+2.75%到11870.5美元/吨，沪铜-0.96%到9.32万元/吨。供应端，据SMM，进口铜精 矿加工费周度指数跌至-43.7美元/吨；截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存周内环比微增0.79%，虽然到货 量减少但受需求疲软影响有所累库。展望后续，SMM预期进口到货将减少，国产到货维持正常，且临 近年末需求端依旧疲软，预计周度库存小幅去库。冶炼端，据SMM，随年末将至，冶炼厂控制库存水 平对冷料需求下降，本周SMM废产阳极板企业开工率为65.68%，环比下降1.03个百分点。预计下周开 工率环比下降1.62个百分点至64.06%。消费端，据SMM，本周铜线缆开工率环比微升、同比偏弱，订 单无实质改善，年末企业聚焦资金回收，生产稳中有序。下周开工率预计小幅提升，需求端支撑不足致 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

Core Viewpoint - Recent data has increased the probability of the Federal Reserve further lowering interest rates in December, providing support for precious metal prices [2][3] Precious Metals - Gold price reached $4243.00 per ounce, up $51.95 from November 28, with a growth rate of 1.24% [2] - Silver price was $58.11 per ounce, increasing by $4.20 from November 28, reflecting a growth rate of 7.78% [2] - The core PCE price index for September showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, down from 2.9% previously, aligning with expectations [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 86.2% according to the CME Fedwatch tool [2] Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $11616 per ton, up $631 from November 28, with a growth rate of 5.74% [4] - SHFE copper closed at 92720 yuan per ton, increasing by 5250 yuan from November 28, with a growth rate of 6.00% [4] - LME copper inventory was 162550 tons, up 3125 tons from November 28, but down 107975 tons year-on-year [4] - Domestic aluminum price was 22150 yuan per ton, up 720 yuan from November 28 [5] - LME aluminum inventory was 528300 tons, down 10750 tons from November 28, and down 158825 tons year-on-year [5] Tin - Domestic refined tin price was 314410 yuan per ton, up 14120 yuan from November 28, with a growth rate of 4.70% [7] - LME tin inventory was 3085 tons, down 75 tons from November 28 [7] - Supply disruptions and expectations of interest rate cuts have led to a significant increase in tin prices [7] Antimony - Domestic antimony ingot price remained stable at 171000 yuan per ton, unchanged from November 28 [8] - Both supply and demand are weak, leading to stable prices [8] Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - Gold industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [9] - Copper industry also holds a "recommended" investment rating due to ongoing tightness in copper supply [10] - Aluminum industry is rated "recommended" as supply remains rigid [11] - Tin industry is rated "recommended" with expectations of tight supply supporting prices [12] - Antimony industry is rated "recommended" following a rebound after a six-month price decline [13] Key Stock Recommendations - Gold industry recommends stocks such as Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Gold International, and China National Gold [14] - Copper industry recommends stocks including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Cangge Mining, and Minmetals Resources [15] - Aluminum industry recommends stocks like Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao [16] - Antimony industry recommends Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals [17] - Tin industry recommends stocks such as Xiyang Co., Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Xingye Silver Tin [17]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and rare earths, indicating high market activity and potential for growth [12][33][34]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton on LME, with domestic prices rising by 6.12% to 92,800 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and high demand [1][13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton on LME, with domestic prices up 3.4% to 22,300 yuan per ton, reflecting stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2][14]. - Gold prices decreased by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and market volatility, while SPDR gold holdings increased [3][15]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, rose by 2.79%, with expectations of increased demand due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][34]. - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the outlook remains positive due to anticipated recovery in exports [4][35]. - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, supported by low inventory levels and supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar [4][36]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 92,800 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply constraints are evident with a decrease in copper inventory and processing fees [1][13]. - Downstream demand is weakening due to high prices, leading to a decline in new orders [1][13]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton, with domestic prices at 22,300 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Inventory levels remain stable, but processing rates have decreased slightly [2][14]. - Demand is cautious due to high prices affecting transaction volumes [2][14]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, with geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating a slight uptick in investor interest [3][15]. Rare Earths - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased by 2.79%, with expectations of higher demand due to supply constraints [4][34]. - Export conditions are improving, contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [4][34]. Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to potential export recovery [4][35]. Tin - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, driven by low inventory levels and supply disruptions [4][36].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Gold has obtained a mining license for the Xinxiao County Tanxi Tungsten Mine, which will enhance its production capacity and contribute to future revenue growth [1][2]. Group 1: Mining License and Production Capacity - Hunan Gold's subsidiary, Xinxiao Siwei Mining Co., Ltd., has acquired a mining license for the Tanxi Tungsten Mine, with an annual production capacity of 990,000 tons and a mining area of 1.3336 square kilometers, valid for 20 years [1]. - The confirmed mineral resources include 19.16 million tons of tungsten ore with a WO3 resource of 70,411 tons and an average grade of 0.367% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3, Hunan Gold reported a revenue of 12.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117.91%, and a cumulative revenue of 41.194 billion yuan for the first nine months, reflecting a 96.26% growth [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 reached 373 million yuan, up 63.13%, with a total net profit exceeding 1 billion yuan for the first nine months, marking a 54.28% increase [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Product Pricing - The prices of Hunan Gold's main products have shown strong performance, with gold sales prices increasing by 41.04%, refined antimony prices by 41.95%, and tungsten concentrate prices by 29.83% [2]. - The overall price increase of key products has significantly expanded the company's profit margins [2]. Group 4: Future Projects and Growth - Hunan Gold is focusing on expanding its gold production capacity through projects like the Gansu Jiaxin Copper-Gold Mine, which is set to start in June 2025 with a mining capacity of 500,000 tons per year [3]. - The company is also working on resource integration projects in the Wangu mining area, aiming to complete asset acquisition soon [3].

华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4072.85美元/盎司，环比11月14 日+1.75美元/盎司，涨幅为0.04%。周内伦敦白银价格为48.91美元/盎司，环比11月14日-3.11美元/盎司， 跌幅为-5.97%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 贵金属：12月美联储进一步降息分歧大，贵金属价格支撑仍在 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4072.85美元/盎司，环比11月14日+1.75美元/盎司，涨幅为0.04%。周内 伦敦白银价格为48.91美元/盎司，环比11月14日-3.11美元/盎司，跌幅为-5.97%。 数据方面，美国11月纽约联储制造业指数18.7，前值10.7，预期5.8。美国9月失业率4.4%，前值4.3%， 预期4.3%。美国9月非农就业人口变动11.9万人，前值-0.4万人，预期5.1万人。美国11月标普全球综合 PMI初值54.8，前值54.6，预期54.6。美国11月标普全球制造业PMI初值51.9，前值52.5，预期52。 数据方面，前期由于美国政府停摆，9月就业数据本周才发布，虽然9月新增非农就业人数超过预期，但 是9月失业率反弹，导致市场判断12月美 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the antimony sector, indicating a positive outlook after a rebound in antimony prices following a six-month decline [10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the antimony market is experiencing a supply tightness with low trader inventories, leading to strong expectations for price increases. The current price of domestic antimony ingots is stable at 171,000 CNY/ton [10]. - The report also emphasizes that the gold sector is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate-cutting cycle, with a "Recommended" investment rating for gold [10]. - For copper, despite unclear short-term rate-cut expectations, the continuous tightness in copper mines supports a "Recommended" investment rating [10]. - The aluminum sector is rated "Recommended" as well, with rigid supply conditions for electrolytic aluminum [10]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, leading to a "Recommended" investment rating for tin [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) experienced a weekly decline of 7.87%, ranking in the mid-lower range among all Shenwan primary industries [19]. - The performance of sub-sectors varied, with lithium showing a slight increase of 0.14%, while gold saw a decline of 4.61% [19]. Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold [10]. - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [10]. - For aluminum, recommended stocks are Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [10]. - In the antimony sector, recommended stocks include Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous [10]. - For tin, recommended stocks are Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [10].

Group 1: Aluminum Market - LME aluminum price increased by 0.52% to $2877.00 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum rose by 0.99% to 21,800 yuan per ton [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded at 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to earlier in the week [3] - National alumina production capacity stands at 110.32 million tons per year, with operational capacity at 89.56 million tons per year; weekly operating rate decreased by 0.81 percentage points to 81.18% [3] Group 2: Copper Market - LME copper price rose by 1.53% to $10,859.00 per ton, and Shanghai copper increased by 1.12% to 86,900 yuan per ton [2] - Import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$42.21 per ton; national inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 201,100 tons [2] - Domestic waste anode plate production remains high with an operating rate of 73.62%, expected to rise by 2.61 percentage points next week [2] Group 3: Gold Market - COMEX gold price increased by 4.16% to $4,174.50 per ounce; SPDR gold holdings rose by 6.87 tons to 1,048.93 tons [4] - Market influenced by U.S. political dysfunction and geopolitical risks, leading to a strong oscillation pattern [4] Group 4: Rare Earth and Antimony - Praseodymium and neodymium prices decreased by 1.40%; rare earth prices expected to rise due to increased demand following the suspension of control measures [5] - Antimony price increased by 15.5% due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply [5] Group 5: Tin and Lithium - Tin price increased by 3.11% as Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining [6] - Lithium carbonate price rose by 3.14% to 83,200 yuan per ton, with total production at 21,500 tons [6]