继本周一白银爆拉逾10%创2008年来最大盘中涨幅后，铜成为又一创下十多年来最强盘中涨势的金属资产。 1月29日周四，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的三个月期铜交易史上首次突破1.45万美元/吨，日内最高涨幅达11%，创2009年来最大盘中涨幅；纽约期铜主 力合约同日盘中也曾涨超10%。此后，美股早盘时段，随着美股这类风险资产遭抛售、美元短线拉升，伦铜和纽铜均回吐过半涨幅，仍有望均创收盘历 史新高。 铜价暴涨之际，金银在创下盘中历史新高后也出现剧烈波动。纽约黄金期货在欧股盘前涨破5580美元，连续第九个交易日创盘中历史新高，日内涨超 5%，但美股早盘曾转跌超3%。欧股盘中，纽约期银史上首次突破120美元/盎司，日内涨幅曾接近7.3%，但美股早盘也转跌，刷新日低时跌近6.1%，美 股午盘均收窄多数跌幅。 市场分析指出，这轮大宗商品新年涨势由多重因素共同推动，包括美元贬值、地缘政治紧张引发的实物资产避险需求上升，以及市场对美联储将转向更 宽松货币政策的预期。而考虑当前供应充裕的信号，最近期铜大涨已引发市场人士警告涨势不可持续。 作为关键的工业金属，铜价自12月初以来已累涨超20%，但涨势发生在中国需求并非强劲且和伦敦市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global metal market in 2025 is experiencing unprecedented price surges across various metals, driven by a combination of supply-demand imbalances, policy adjustments, and industrial upgrades, marking the beginning of a new valuation cycle for the metal industry [1] Precious Metals - Gold prices have surpassed $4,500 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 60%, supported by global uncertainties and central bank purchases, with over 1,000 tons of net gold bought by central banks in 2025 [1] - Silver has doubled in price, driven by a 50% year-on-year increase in silver demand for photovoltaic applications, with industrial demand significantly boosting silver prices [2] - Platinum and palladium are supported by hydrogen energy and automotive recovery, with ETF holdings rising, indicating a positive market trend for these metals [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have reached over $12,200 per ton, with a year-on-year increase of over 30%, driven by demand from electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI data centers, while supply disruptions have led to a projected global refined copper shortage of 150,000 tons in 2025 [3] - Nickel prices have seen significant fluctuations due to policy changes in Indonesia and domestic stockpiling, with a potential for price recovery in 2026 as demand remains stable [3][4] New Energy Metals - Lithium prices have increased by 28% since July, supported by new regulations that eliminate inefficient production and rising demand from energy storage and electric vehicles, with a projected penetration rate of over 40% for new energy vehicles in 2025 [4] - Cobalt prices have surged over 130% due to tightened export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds 70% of global cobalt resources, highlighting the vulnerability of the supply chain [4] Strategic Metals - Strategic metals like tungsten, gallium, and germanium are experiencing price surges due to their irreplaceable roles in key industries, with China controlling 98% of global gallium production and 70% of germanium production, leading to an 84% increase in gallium prices in 2025 [5] - The combination of policy support and technological advancements is transforming strategic metals from mere resources into strategic assets, with ongoing value reassessment in the industry [5] 2026 Outlook - The metal market is expected to shift from broad increases to structural differentiation, with copper projected to reach $13,000 per ton due to limited supply and structural demand from new energy and AI [6] - Precious metals are likely to experience high volatility but remain supported by safe-haven and industrial demand, while strategic metals are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend due to solidifying global pricing power [7] Conclusion - The 2025 metal market reflects a broader energy revolution and industrial upgrade, with metals playing a crucial role in supporting new productive forces, indicating a significant opportunity for those who can navigate the evolving landscape of supply-demand dynamics, policy, and technology [8]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The market is optimistic about liquidity returning, leading to a rise in precious metal prices, particularly silver, which has seen significant price increases due to tight balance and low inventory [1] - The prices of light rare earths have increased, while heavy rare earth prices have declined, with specific prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide reported at 567,000, 1,480,000, and 6,525,000 CNY per ton respectively, showing a mixed trend [1] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices are expected to perform strongly due to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and an improving supply-demand balance, with a notable increase in market risk appetite [2] - The ongoing negotiations for copper concentrate long-term contracts are intensifying, reinforcing the consensus on supply tightness, while the market anticipates upcoming economic data that could further influence copper prices [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The weekly operating rate for aluminum processing has increased by 0.3% to 62.3%, indicating a positive trend in production, with various segments showing improvement due to year-end demand releases [2] - The macroeconomic sentiment is favorable, contributing to the sustained high-level fluctuations in aluminum prices [2] Group 4: Energy Metals - Lithium production has decreased seasonally, with a reported output of 22,000 tons, down by 265 tons, while inventory has also declined by 2,452 tons, indicating a tightening supply [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supplies, while downstream demand is cautious, leading to a strategic shift towards integrated cost advantages in cobalt production [3]