1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in January this year will decrease compared to December last year, and the year-on-year decline of PPI in January will narrow compared to December last year [5][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. In 2025, the national consumer prices were flat compared to the previous year. Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year, non-food prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, consumer goods prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year [2][7] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, non-food prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and service prices were flat month-on-month. Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month [2][8] - **Eight major categories**: In December, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol increased by 0.2% month-on-month, housing prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, transportation and communication prices were flat month-on-month, medical care prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, education, culture and entertainment prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices were flat month-on-month, daily necessities and services prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and other supplies and services increased by 2.8% month-on-month [9] - **Impact factors**: The increase in the year-on-year increase of food prices in December was an important factor driving the relatively large year-on-year increase of CPI in December. The month-on-month increase of industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy by 0.6% affected the month-on-month increase of CPI by about 0.16 percentage points [2][8] - **January forecast**: The current agricultural product prices are conducive to the increase of the year-on-year CPI data in January, and have little impact on the month-on-month CPI data in January. It is speculated that refined oil prices will have a downward pull on the year-on-year CPI in January and may have a slight downward pull on the month-on-month CPI in January [11] PPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decrease and a previous value of a 2.2% decrease. In 2025, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%. Production material prices decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, and living material prices decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [3][12] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Production material prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and living material prices were flat month-on-month [4][13] - **Industry performance**: In December, industries with a relatively large year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices included the oil and gas extraction industry, coal mining and washing industry, etc.; industries with a relatively large year-on-year increase included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. Industries with a relatively large month-on-month increase in prices included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; industries with a relatively large month-on-month decline included the oil and gas extraction industry and oil, coal and other fuel processing industries [12][15] - **Impact factors**: The price increases of precious metals represented by gold and silver prices, and non-ferrous metals represented by copper in December played a relatively large role in the month-on-month increase of PPI in December [5][20]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月09日 (原油) 经历多日承压后夜盘油价迎来显著反弹，布伦特最高接近63美元/桶。市场对地缘风险的反应虽推动 短期回升,但其持续性仍待观察。地缘局势的反复可能加剧油价波动、影响短期节奏,但并未扭转 库存累积带来的下行压力。当前供需格局显示，第一季度全球石油库存压力依然突出，供应过剩仍 是压制油价中枢下行的主要因素。需要警惕的是,若伊朗等地缘风险急剧升级,不排除引发油价短 期脉冲式上涨行情。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属先抑后扬，跌势缓和。美国周度初请失业金人数20.8万人，维持在低位水平。开年全球 她缘乱局延续，资金情绪主导剧烈波动，彭博大宗商品指数年度调仓影响不具备持续性，贵金属高 位震荡后仍有望测试前高阻力，考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下降后寻找再入场机会。聚焦今晚 美国非农就业数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走低，高盛上调上半年铜价目标12750美元。市场关注美国高法对特朗普对等关税的裁 决，不过涉铜多走行业关税。沪铜主力换月至2603合约，市场关注2601合约期货仓单变动。昨日上 海铜贴水125元，SMM社库增至27.38万吨。前期 ...

格隆汇1月8日｜加拿大商品贸易差额重新转为逆差，因为计算机和电子产品进口增长超过了对美国之外 其他国家的黄金出口激增的影响。加拿大统计局周四公布的数据显示，10月份贸易逆差为5.83亿加元 （4.21亿美元）。市场预计逆差会更大，达到15亿加元。加拿大出口中流向美国的占比降至67.3%，为 自1997年开始有数据以来不含疫情时期的最低水平。10月份对美国的出口下降了3.4%，主要受飞机和 黄金出口下降拖累。加拿大统计局表示，总体而言，当月进口增长3.4%，原因是计算机及计算机零部 件进口创纪录，其中包括来自爱尔兰的处理单元。智能手机、贵金属和工业机械也推动了进口增加。出 口总额增长2.1%，主要由黄金出口拉动，尤其是对英国的出货。10月份未加工黄金以及白银和铂金出 口飙升47.4%。能源出口下降8.4%。 ...

宏观层面，地缘风险溢价仍在，但今日铸造铝价格走势随电解铝、铜及贵金属一同回调。特朗普政府 2026 年对委内瑞拉发动军事打击后，又将目光锁定格陵兰岛，且接连干预多国内政。这一系列举动引 发多头对全球政治局势动荡的强烈担忧，为规避风险，多头选择在价格高点获利了结。受此影响，人民 币震荡走弱，全球股市大面积下挫，市场风险偏好受到一定压制，铸造铝价格因此承压下行。 基本面方面，原料端，因进口废铝与国产废铝供应均偏紧，这使得铸造铝价格跌幅受限，成本端对铸造 铝价格形成有力支撑。需求端表现依旧疲软，行业步入季节性消费淡季，年末氛围渐浓，合金厂开工率 持续下滑，汽车行业消费需求也有所下降，铸造铝采购需求低迷。现货市场上，持货商报价依旧坚挺， 下调幅度不大，下游企业谨慎入场，日内交易仅维持刚需。第二交易时段，铸造铝盘面价格走低，持货 商报价略有下调，小部分买方追跌补货，但市场流通货源零星，实质性成交稀少，整体成交活跃度一 般。 综合来看，铝合金需求将逐步进入淡季，合金厂按需生产导致开工率回落，但成本端支撑稳固，加之持 仓上升，铸造铝价格将维持高位震荡格局。此外，铝合金价格走势与铝价紧密相关，当铝价（AL）回 落时，更有利于 ...

地缘避险情绪升温，BCOM指数权重调整启动 市场分析 政策预期回摆。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内卷式" 竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振消费， 以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。2026年中国人民银行 工作会议1月5日-6日召开，会议强调，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效 运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。随后，央行宣布在1月8日将开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月 （90天）。随着国内系列重要会议的召开，以及美联储12月宣布重回"限制性"立场，且美联储目前内部分歧犹存， 巴尔金强调"精细调整"，而米兰称今年应降息超过100个基点，因此后续内外的政策预期存在回摆的风险，资产情 绪和宏观有所背离。后续：一、关注国内具体政策出台情况；二、特朗普宣布的美联储主席候选人。此外，元旦 假期期间，地缘局势骤紧，在民粹主义和贸易保护主义思潮下，未来全球局势动荡仍将是常态，商品的供给端风 险以及宽松货币政策仍将是商 ...

量刻三(Z0019656) 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月8日 数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 欢迎关注微信公众号 广发期货EDP | | | | 【每日精选观点】 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 合约 | 观点 | | | | ゙慎 塑料 | NI2602 12605 | 多单减仓 震荡偏强 | | | | 铁矿石 | 12605 | 短多尝试 | | | | 豆粕 | M2605 | 農荡偏强 | | | | 白银 | AG2604 | 逢低买入 【全品种日评】 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IF2603 | | 节后开门红行情伴随显著放量,突破前高力量强, | | | 股指 | IH2603 | 主线结构集中,股指表现分化 | 推荐继续持有牛市价差组合,逢低可再构建备兑组 | | | | IC2603 IM2603 | | 合,做好组合风险控制,避免单边重仓追高。品种 上IC成分较为契合主线结构,表现更强。 | | | | ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/01/08 Assets Allocation in January: Macro Friendly, Metals Optimistic 1 月资产配置月报：宏观友好，金属乐观 | 姜 | 婧 | Jiang Jing | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F3018552 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0013315 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王含章 | | Wang Hanzhang | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F03121254 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0022985 | | 仲 | 鼎 | Zhong Ding | 从业资格号 Qualification No.: F0 ...

（文华综合） 沪铜夜盘低开低走，早间延续弱势，目前主力合约跌幅超过2%，国际铜同步下跌。此前受助于矿紧担 忧，叠加贵金属大涨带来的多头情绪外溢，沪铜再创新高，但国内需求受到高价抑制，目前贵金属高位 调整，沪铜追随贵金属跌势出现回落。 ...

证券日报网讯 1月7日，中金岭南在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，当前贵金属价格受国际、国内等 各项因素影响，存在着价格波动。相对应的利润存在不确定性。关于公司产能等相关情况的信息请留意 公司后续的定期报告及相关公告。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - Northern Copper's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.06% and a total market capitalization of 29.866 billion yuan, indicating potential volatility in the market [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Northern Copper's stock has increased by 1.88%, with a 3.16% rise over the last five trading days and a 0.51% increase over the last 20 days, while it has decreased by 9.89% over the last 60 days [2]. - As of January 7, the stock price was reported at 15.68 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 9.85 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.26% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Northern Copper achieved a revenue of 19.973 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 689 million yuan, which is a 26.10% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, Northern Copper has distributed a total of 601 million yuan in dividends, with 387 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Northern Copper was 182,900, an increase of 1.67% from the previous period, with an average of 10,412 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 1.64% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 14.9068 million shares, an increase of 3.5978 million shares from the previous period, while the Southern CSI 1000 ETF has reduced its holdings by 84,500 shares [3].