主论坛环节，中国宏观经济学会副会长祝宝良发表了关于《2026年我国宏观经济形势和政策取向》 的主题演讲。他指出，当前，我国的潜在经济增长速度仍在5%左右。建议把推动物价合理回升和经济 增长5%左右作为2026年经济调控目标。2026年，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，不断深化改革、扩大开放，着力扩大内需，着力增强微观主体活力，着 力稳定市场主体信心，推动经济稳中向好。 中信证券海外宏观首席分析师崔嵘及其团队对全球经济走势作出研判。他们认为，2025年关税波折 扰乱全球经济，预计2026年海外宏观面将迎来一段暂时的清朗期：一是清朗的基本面，包括地缘、财 政、货币政策的不确定性下降，美欧日经济增长将适度加速，以及通胀担忧趋于回落至"舒适区"；二是 在资产配置端要保持一份清醒。展望2026年，预计全球降息潮在幅度上可能将低于2025年，同时美元在 上半年波折后将转强，二者叠加可能导致全球金融市场流动性不及2025年，总体风险资产的回报率低于 2025年。具体资产来看，仍看好AI行业，并维持对黄金和工业金属的超配建议。 11月26日，以"破浪前行，扬帆起航"为主题的中信期货 ...

-4849 .1012 -48倍 | 7 Elite | 日度策略参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 份格号:F025192 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品神 | | | | | | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期,A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 股指 | 農汤 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 六川金融 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 至间。 | | | | | | | | 近期市场情绪反复,铜价或震荡运行。 | 農汤 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而宏观情绪反复,铝价高位震荡运行。 | 震荡 | F | | | | | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 | 氧化铝 | 格继续围绕成本线附近震荡运行,关注矿端价格变化。 | 美联储内部分歧加大, 近期宏观情绪预计反复。基本面短期国内 | | | | | | | ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-26 人民币汇率稳步走强，美联储降息预期强化 市场分析 国内经济基础仍待夯实。10月28日，"十五五"规划建议全文发布，公报提到，到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技 实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP目标 推算，"十五五"期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右，较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月30日， 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，11月5日，中国正式落实暂缓关税。数据方面，10月全国制造业PMI录得49， 环比值下跌0.8；中国10月出口（以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节 前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口"和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓。11 月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措 施，国内经济基础仍待夯实。国务院新闻办公室定于2025年11月27日（星期四）上午10时举行国务院政策例行吹 风会，介绍增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施有关情况。1 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年11月26日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价回落，布伦特01合约跌1.15%。最新消息显示美鸟就和平方案的谈判进展积极。乌克 兰方面表示乌美总统或在周四会面以达成协议,相关地缘风险的回落引领油价下跌。供需方面四季 度、明年一季度市场仍面临更大的累库预期，我们始终认为油价的下行驱动仍在，近端风险在于俄 罗斯能否接受最新版本和平方案。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡，美国补发9月零售销售月率录得0.2%低于预期和前值。PPI基本符合预期。消息称 乌克兰同意美国提出的和平协议条款，但一些细节仍未敲定，各方将继续会谈。降息和地缘前景仍 存较强不确定性,贵金属高位震荡等待方向性突破。 【铜】 隔夜铜价波动大，美国ADP就业报告显示劳动力市场疲软，滞后的零售数据一般、PPI持平、联储部 分官员继续表明降息态度，12月下调利率概率预期升至八成以上，铜价一度扩大涨幅。美国铜市交 易所库存已创历史高位,Codelco拟发往东亚地区的精铜长单溢价报价高企。关注沪铜增仓变动, 前期多单止盈后,关注MA40日均线表现。 (铝) 隔夜沪铝小幅回落。铝价回调后下游逢低补库 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——688496，被证监会立案！刚上市业绩就变脸，亏损超1亿元；核心产品受重 创：第一大客户"自产自用"，减少采购 （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，2025年11月25日，深交所向山东恒邦冶炼股份有限公司发出监管函：2025年8月12日，你 公司披露的《关于独立董事辞职的公告》显示，你公司独立董事黄健柏、焦健因连续担任公司独立董事 满六年，申请辞去公司独立董事及董事会相关专门委员会职务。因黄健柏、焦健辞职将导致公司独立董 事人数少于董事会成员的三分之一，根据《上市公司独立董事管理办法》《公司章程》等相关规定，其 辞职报告将在公司召开股东会选举产生新任独立董事后方可生效。根据相关规定，你公司应当自独立董 事提出辞职之日起六十日内完成补选。目前你公司未依规及时完成补选工作。你公司的相关行为违反了 本所《股票上市规则》第1.4条和《上市公司自律监管指引第1号——主板上市公司规范运作》第3.2.8条 第三款的规定。本所希望你公司及全体董事、高级管理人员认真吸取教训，并提醒你公司及全体董事、 高级管理人员严格遵守《证券法》《公司法》等法律法规，以及本所《股票上市规则》及相关规定，真 实、 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 上周国际油价回落，布伦特01合约跌2.77%。俄乌协议再现曙光，周日美乌双方就美国提出的结束 俄乌冲突28点新计划举行的会谈取得进展,特朗普提出本周四是乌克兰接收和平方案的最后期限, 美联储对12月降息的反复态度亦令原油等风险资产承压。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面临 更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险。 2025年11月24日 (责金属) (原油) 周五贵金属震荡偏弱。美国补发部分经济数据具备韧性，美联储官员们表态存在较大分歧，周五组 约联储主席称利率仍有调整空间令市场再度提升对12月降息押注。美方提出俄乌和平计划遭到多方 反对,后续仍将持续博弈。短期市场多空消息繁杂,贵金属高位震荡,关注技术面的方向性突破。 【铜】 上周五伦铜收回盘中跌幅、尾盘走高，沪铜8.55万再显韧性。美联储票委言论将下月降息概率预期 再次提至五成以上，带动贵金属与铜价反弹回升。LME0-3月转微幅升水，库存15.5万吨，且注销仓 单占比低。沪铜上周减仓,价格震荡在短期均线间。国内沪粤现货交割后延续升水报价。前期空单 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential AI bubble and the implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding rate cuts [2] - It examines the evolution of the real estate market, particularly the direct supply of housing by banks, and its impact on the sector [2] - The article also reflects on the implications of large banks merging with smaller banks, providing insights into the banking sector's future [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests a stable global economy with a continued cycle of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the shift towards "big fiscal" policies in major economies [5] - It indicates that while China's economy faces short-term pressures, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a slow bull market in Chinese stocks and a cautious approach to the bond market [5] - The article predicts a long-term upward trend in commodity prices, particularly in the context of a weakening US dollar [5] Group 3 - The discussion on precious metals highlights the fluctuating expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the potential turning point for cyclical demand in gold and silver [7] - It also addresses the structural opportunities in the precious metals market arising from the macroeconomic reordering [7] Group 4 - The focus on AI and large models reveals investment opportunities within the internet and data center industries, emphasizing the growth potential in these sectors [9] - The article identifies five key questions for investors regarding the development trends in AI [9] Group 5 - The report on the technology sector indicates that the AI industry revolution is driving high growth in demand for computing power and hardware, alongside accelerating commercialization in application sectors [11] - It highlights critical growth directions such as 6G, quantum technology, and domestic semiconductor production [11]

天眼查App显示，近日，深圳市宝立源贵金属有限公司成立，法定代表人为司马石飞，注册资本50万人 民币，经营范围为一般经营项目是：贵金属冶炼；金属材料制造；金属材料销售；稀有稀土金属冶炼； 非金属矿物制品制造；非金属矿及制品销售；有色金属压延加工；金属废料和碎屑加工处理；电子产品 销售；技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；锻件及粉末冶金制品制造； 新材料技术研发；技术进出口；货物进出口。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经 营活动），许可经营项目是：无。 ...