1月29日至1月30日，黄金白银遭遇"瀑布流直线跳水"，现货黄金从猛冲5600美元/盎司，到跌穿5000美元/盎司，仅仅用了一天。暴跌原因是什么？长期看 金价和白银价格走势如何？暴跌给普通投资者什么样的风险警示？黄金股和黄金相关基金能否跟进？金饰品价格如果波动大，可否买入？1月30日，扬子 晚报/紫牛新闻记者采访了江苏省理财师协会秘书长、拾榴询财创始人南小鹏，卓创资讯分析师，私募基金总经理等多位专家。 闪崩！现货黄金跌穿5000美元/盎司 白银跌穿100美元/盎司 1月29日纽约交易时段，贵金属价格迅速跳水。现货黄金价格日内一度涨至5600美元/盎司附近，但北京时间23:00开始跳水，从5530美元/盎司左右跌至 5105.83美元/盎司，日内最大跌幅5.7%，最终收跌0.69%，报5377.4美元/盎司。现货银价从历史高位121.67美元/盎司跌至106.80美元/盎司，日内最大跌幅 达8.5%。 | 概览 | 图表 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in precious metal prices and its impact on the real economy, particularly the consumer and manufacturing sectors, highlighting a disconnect between market sentiment and actual demand [1] - It emphasizes that the current trading environment is driven by emotions rather than logic, leading to extreme price volatility and potential market corrections [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The precious metals market is experiencing a speculative bubble, with significant price increases that are not supported by fundamental supply and demand metrics [7] - Regulatory measures, such as increased margin requirements by major exchanges, have triggered a forced deleveraging in the market, contributing to recent price declines [6] - Market rumors, particularly regarding the financial stability of major banks, have exacerbated volatility and led to panic selling among investors [11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The article notes that while precious metals like silver and gold have seen substantial price increases (silver up 173% and gold up over 71% in 2025), the actual industrial demand growth for silver is only 15% [7] - There is a persistent supply shortage in the silver market, with a cumulative supply gap approaching 25,500 tons from 2021 to 2025, indicating that the fundamental demand remains strong despite price corrections [12] - The macroeconomic environment is shifting, with changing expectations around Federal Reserve interest rate policies impacting the attractiveness of precious metals as safe-haven assets [12]

Core Insights - The price of silver has reached a historic high of over $70 per ounce, while gold has also surpassed $4,497 per ounce, marking significant annual increases of over 140% for silver and over 70% for gold [1][2][3] Price Movements - As of December 23, 2023, silver's price has increased by 140.77% year-to-date, significantly outperforming gold's 70.89% increase [3] - The historical price ratio between gold and silver typically fluctuates between 50 to 80 times, but this year it exceeded 100 times after a surge in gold prices [5] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in precious metal prices is attributed to multiple macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has reduced the attractiveness of cash and short-term bonds, driving investment towards gold and silver [5] - Geopolitical tensions have also heightened market uncertainty, contributing to increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven [6] Industrial Demand for Silver - Silver's industrial demand is projected to grow by approximately 5,000 tons from 2016 to 2024, with its applications in solar energy, electric vehicles, and AI data centers becoming increasingly critical [9] - The World Silver Association reports that industrial demand for silver is expected to rise from 153,000 tons in 2016 to 204,000 tons in 2024 [9] Comparison with Oil Market - In contrast to the booming silver market, the oil market is experiencing a downturn, reflecting a slowdown in global economic activity and a long-term trend towards energy transition [10] - The rise of electric vehicles is expected to peak global oil demand around 2030, while non-OPEC countries are increasing production, leading to an oversupply in the oil market [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance's Accounting Department has provided clear accounting treatment guidelines for standard warehouse receipt transactions, which helps to standardize financial operations and information disclosure for enterprises engaged in financial activities [1][2][4]. Group 1: Accounting Treatment Guidelines - The new guidelines classify contracts for buying and selling standard warehouse receipts as financial instruments under the Accounting Standards for Enterprises No. 22, which applies to contracts that can be settled in cash or other financial instruments [2][3]. - Enterprises that frequently buy and sell standard warehouse receipts for short-term profit without physical delivery should recognize the difference between the received consideration and the book value of the sold receipts as investment income, rather than sales revenue [3][4]. - The distinction between hedging against price fluctuations and speculative trading is crucial for accurate accounting treatment and compliance, as it affects how transactions are reported in financial statements [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Enterprises - The clarification of accounting treatment is expected to curb speculative trading and false trading behaviors, guiding enterprises to focus on activities related to the real economy [6][7]. - Companies are advised to clearly differentiate between speculative transactions and those involving physical delivery, ensuring that accounting practices reflect the true nature of their business activities [6][7]. - The new requirements are seen as a supportive measure for the stable development of the futures market, enhancing the management of enterprises' futures-related activities and improving the market's service to the real economy [7][8].