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Core Viewpoint - The sudden surge of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since February 2023 and marking the largest single-day increase in 40 years, is attributed to both external factors and internal financial dynamics, particularly the actions of Taiwan's life insurance companies [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - The NTD experienced a 3% increase last Friday and a further 4% rise on Monday, indicating significant volatility in the foreign exchange market [1]. - The surge in the NTD may be superficially linked to increased demand for Taiwanese semiconductors from the US tech sector, but it is primarily driven by life insurance companies hedging against dollar exposure [3]. Group 2: Structural Issues in the Insurance Sector - Taiwan's life insurance industry faces a substantial structural mismatch, with approximately $1 trillion in private hands, of which $700 billion is held in insurance investment portfolios [4]. - The insurance companies have relied on issuing policies in NTD while investing in USD assets, leading to a currency mismatch risk exceeding 40% of their investment portfolios, amounting to about $460 billion, which is over 60% of Taiwan's GDP [4]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The life insurance sector is exposed to three main risks: depreciation of the USD against the NTD, high currency hedging costs, and capital losses due to rising US bond yields [5]. - The financial stability of Taiwan is significantly threatened by the combination of a weak USD and high US interest rates, which could lead to substantial losses for the insurance companies [6]. Group 4: Hedging Strategies - Although Taiwan's life insurance companies have some hedging strategies in place, approximately $200 billion of USD assets remain unhedged, equating to a quarter of Taiwan's GDP [10]. - The hedging tools primarily involve foreign exchange forward contracts, which have become costly, especially during periods of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - If the USD continues to weaken and Taiwan cannot effectively intervene, the life insurance sector may be forced to further hedge its dollar exposure, potentially leading to a spiral effect of NTD appreciation [11]. - The ongoing situation may signal the beginning of a broader financial restructuring globally, particularly if the USD enters a prolonged depreciation phase [12].

4月2日，美国宣布实施"对等关税"政策。自此之后，全球金融市场就出现大幅震荡，全球股市4月7日重 演"黑色星期一"，国际油价也出现波动。截至发稿时，除美国宣布暂停部分国家关税时出现短暂提振 外，整体呈"跌跌不休"的状态。笔者认为，国际金融市场已接近进入金融风暴状态。金融市场，尤其是 美国金融市场的走势，将直接影响国际石化企业，更将左右美国特朗普关税的实施情况。对美国石化业 来说，比目前苦日子更"苦"的日子或许要来了。 实际上，国际市场对美国"对等关税"政策并不看好，股市就是反映。美国宣布"对等关税"后，立即引发 全球股市下跌，美股市场甚至发生恐慌性抛售，美股累计下跌超10%，国际油价累计下跌超10美元/ 桶，黄金等避险资产价格随之上涨。美国石化行业巨头的股价也蒸发不少，如埃克森美孚股价从4月2日 的118.39美元/股跌至4月10日的99.93美元/股，雪佛龙同期从167.40美元/股跌至134.98美元/股。关税政 策下的美国石化业信心可见一斑。笔者认为，从目前的美股走势看，至少美国已经在经历一起人为制造 的金融风暴，在美股上市的化企都要做好股票市值蒸发的准备。 同样的事件也发生在美国国债上。4月7日，传统 ...