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【西街观察】降息在等待更佳时机
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-08-20 15:11
8月20日,央行披露最新一期的LPR(贷款市场报价利率)报价,如预期般,未有变化。 自5月下降以来,LPR已连续三个月维持不变。这表明央行正在复杂经济环境中对政策时机进行精准把 控,降息选项,也正在等待更契合经济修复节奏的发力窗口。 当前利率环境已为实体经济提供了充分支撑。7月新发放企业贷款利率约3.2%,新发放个人住房贷款利 率约3.1%,分别较去年同期下降约45个和30个基点。企业与居民获取资金的成本处于历史低位。从这 一视角看,信贷资源供给总体是充裕的。 从市场反馈看,前期低利率政策的效果正在逐步释放。M1增速回升显示企业经营活力增强,沪指站上 3700点、A股总市值突破100万亿元,更是宏观经济韧性与市场信心共振的直接体现。此时保持利率稳 定,既是对经济复苏势头的巩固,也是对过度宽松可能引发的资金空转、资产泡沫等风险的主动防范。 结构性工具的优先发力,进一步解释了当前暂不降息的政策逻辑。央行在二季度货币政策执行报告中明 确强调,落实落细适度宽松的货币政策,四篇专栏聚焦结构性支持的表述,清晰传递出下半年政策重 心。 在经济复苏不均衡的背景下,通过定向工具精准滴灌科技创新、小微企业、消费等领域,比总量降息 ...
【MACRO锐评】美国 6 月非农数据全景解析:就业韧性与政策博弈下的市场涟漪
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 09:22
Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll data revealed a complex resilience in the U.S. labor market, prompting a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy paths [2] - The non-farm employment population increased by 147,000, exceeding the expected 110,000, with the previous value revised from 139,000 to 144,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of surpassing economists' predictions [3] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%, remaining stable within a narrow range of 4.0%-4.2% since May 2024 [3] Group 2 - Average hourly wage growth showed a moderate slowdown, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous value of 0.4%; year-on-year growth was 3.7%, slightly down from the expected 3.9% and revised previous value of 3.8% [6] - The report indicated a combination of strong employment and moderate wage growth, suggesting a vibrant labor market while alleviating inflation concerns [6] - Long-term unemployed individuals increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, accounting for 23.3% of the total unemployed, indicating underlying structural issues in the labor market [6] Group 3 - Following the data release, financial markets adjusted rapidly, with the dollar index rising by 0.47% to 97.308, while spot gold fell by $19 to $3,328.04 per ounce, a decrease of 0.65% [8] - The expectations for Federal Reserve policy shifted significantly, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 98% to 80% after the data release [11] - Despite the reduced likelihood of immediate rate cuts, the overnight index swap market still indicates over 70% chance of a rate cut before September, reflecting a long-term expectation for policy easing [11] Group 4 - Employment growth in June showed a pattern of "government strong, private weak," with government jobs increasing by 73,000, primarily in state and local education sectors, while the federal government cut 7,000 jobs [12] - The private sector added 74,000 jobs, below the expected 100,000, with notable growth in healthcare and social assistance, but overall performance was weaker than anticipated [12] - Analysts noted that the report did not provide an urgent reason for the Federal Reserve to cut rates immediately, emphasizing the ongoing strength in employment data [15] Group 5 - Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. Treasury yield forecasts despite the June non-farm data easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, predicting year-end yields of 3.45% for two-year and 4.20% for ten-year Treasuries [16] - The firm highlighted that government hiring driving growth and a slight decline in labor participation rate weakened the perceived strength of the data [16] - The potential signing of a $3.4 trillion fiscal plan by Trump, including tax cuts, could increase government borrowing but may enhance the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries if achieved through rate cuts [18]
全国各地现理发店倒闭潮,没有电商冲击,理发店为什么自己能干黄?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 01:28
Core Insights - The hair salon industry is facing a significant closure trend, with over 300,000 salons expected to shut down in 2024, and closure rates projected to reach 18.73% in first-tier cities and 26.3% in third- and fourth-tier cities by 2025 [2] Group 1: Operational Challenges - The reliance on prepayment models, such as "pay 5000 get 2000 free," has led to a cash flow dependency that shifts operational focus, resulting in a fragile financial structure [2] - Over 70% of consumers express dissatisfaction with aggressive upselling practices, with 58% of high-end salon customers leaving due to excessive marketing efforts [2] Group 2: Cost Pressures - Rental costs in prime commercial areas are significantly higher, with a 50㎡ salon in Shanghai's Jing'an district costing 40,000 to 60,000 yuan per month, three times the cost of community shops [3] - The average monthly salary for skilled hairdressers is around 8,000 yuan, but the industry faces a high turnover rate of 37% and a low retention rate of less than 20% for new hires, exacerbating service quality issues [3] Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - The sales of home hair clippers are expected to surge by 210% in 2025, leading to a decrease in salon visits from once a month to once every six months for male customers [4] - A significant portion of Gen Z males (43%) are opting for self-managed hairstyles, while the use of hairpieces among female consumers has risen to 29% [4] Group 4: Market Dynamics - There is a misalignment in pricing strategies, with 60% of salons charging over 68 yuan per visit experiencing low foot traffic, while community salons charging below 30 yuan have an 82% survival rate [6] - The oversupply of salons is evident, with one community in Hangzhou having 23 salons for a population of 15,000, while profitability requires a minimum of 3,000 residents per salon [6] Group 5: Path Forward - The case of a community salon in Shenyang, which offers haircuts for 15 yuan without membership cards, demonstrates that focusing on basic service quality and customer trust can lead to higher foot traffic and potential recovery for the industry [6]
“美国比以往更有紧迫感”
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-13 13:34
以下文章来源于猛犸工作室 ,作者傅一波 猛犸工作室 . 时代周报深度报道。互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号:44120230006 本文来自微信公众号: 猛犸工作室 (ID:MENGMASHENDU) ,嘉宾:李成(香港大学当代中国与世界 研究中心主任、政治与公共行政学系教授), 作者:傅一波,编辑:潘展虹,题图来自:视觉中国 美国政府的关税新政,在全球化遭遇逆流之际,进一步引发了国际贸易市场的波动。事实上,从美国时间4 月2日,美国总统特朗普公布针对全球的"对等关税"政策以来,包括加拿大、欧盟、中国等多方就提出了各 项强硬的反制措施。 5月10日至11日,中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦举行。当地时间11日晚,中方代表团在举行新闻发布会时 表示:中美达成重要共识,会谈取得实质性进展。 随后,中美双方在北京时间5月12日下午发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。 据商务部新闻发言人表示,本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展,大幅降低双边关税水平,美方取消了 共计91%的加征关税,中方相应取消了91%的反制关税;美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税",中方也相应暂停 实施24%的反制关税。 中美会谈释放了哪些信号,未来走势又会如 ...
国产PE高供应态势延续 引发价格竞争与结构性矛盾
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-05 17:40
导语: 2025年二季度中国聚乙烯(PE)市场将迎来新一轮产能释放高峰,随规模企业陆续投产,行业供需格 局、价格走势及贸易流向均面临深刻变化。 MEETING 2025 近期会议安排预告 2025年4-6月国内PE投产计划 单位:万吨/年,万吨 2025年二季度中国聚乙烯(PE)市场将迎来新一轮产能释放高峰,以埃克森美孚惠州项目为代表的头 部企业大规模投产将进一步推高国产供应量,从二季度PE国产供应量来看,预计二季度PE产量约 840.37万吨,环比增长4.42%,同比增长28.14%。随规模企业陆续投产,行业供需格局、价格走势及贸 易流向均面临深刻变化。从短线来看,供应量激增对区域供需及价格形成压制,而长线来看,行业结构 性矛盾日益突出。 数据来源:金联创 数据来源:金联创 从近五年来看,中国聚乙烯市场经历了显著的产能扩张。自2020年起,国内大炼化及轻烃装置集中投 放,中国聚乙烯行业迈入了新一轮的扩能高峰期。随产能不断增长,中国聚乙烯市场多元化格局形成, 市场竞争与日俱增。2020-2024年,中国PE产能复合增长率约8.46%,产量复合增长率约6.86%。 2025-2026年,中国聚乙烯市场将达到产能 ...