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铁矿周报:铁水产量反弹,铁矿震荡运行-20251117
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 01:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore futures fluctuated and rebounded last week, with the molten iron output rebounding, market sentiment improving, and spot prices rising. It is expected that the iron ore will show a fluctuating trend [1][4][6]. - On the demand side, some steel mills resumed production last week due to a long shutdown, and the molten iron output increased compared with the previous week. It is currently slightly higher than the same period last year and is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the future [1][4][6]. - On the supply side, although the overseas shipment volume and arrival volume decreased last week, they remained at relatively high levels in recent years. The port inventory continued to increase, and the supply pressure remained high [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3053 | 19 | 0.63 | 4907951 | 2731199 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3256 | 11 | 0.34 | 1702672 | 1302507 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 772.5 | 12.0 | 1.58 | 1423894 | 494127 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1192.0 | - 78.0 | - 6.14 | 5024636 | 941024 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1669.5 | - 87.0 | - 4.95 | 107554 | 48736 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, some steel mills resumed production due to a long shutdown. The molten iron output increased compared with the previous week, currently slightly higher than the same period last year, and is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the future. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.73 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.8%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.22 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.96%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 18.62 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The average daily molten iron output was 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.94 tons compared to the same period last year [4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume and arrival volume decreased but remained at relatively high levels in recent years. The port inventory continued to increase, and the supply pressure remained high. The total global iron ore shipment was 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons from the previous week. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2548.6 tons, a decrease of 210.6 tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 15812.84 tons, an increase of 188.71 tons from the previous week, and the average daily port clearance volume was 340.28 tons, an increase of 4.73 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - On November 11, the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou project was held in the Port of Mariabaya, Guinea [10]. - Brazil's CSN announced its Q3 2025 results, with the iron ore segment performing strongly, setting a record high in production and sales. In Q3, the company's iron ore production reached 1192.8 tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous quarter and a 4.3% increase year - on - year [10]. - From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 73563 billion yuan, a 14.7% year - on - year decrease. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 652939 million square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year decrease [10]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of futures and spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., as well as data on steel production, inventory, and iron ore shipment and arrival volume [9][11][13].
铁水大幅减少,铁矿承压运行
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 02:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand side: Last week, there was a significant increase in steel mill maintenance, leading to a substantial adjustment in molten iron production. As the off - season approaches, molten iron production will be in a downward cycle. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from the previous week and 0.69 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average molten iron production was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 8,900 tons from the same period last year [1][4][5]. - Supply side: Last week, overseas shipments increased week - on - week, while arrivals decreased. Shipments were at a high level, and the supply remained strong. The total global iron ore shipments were 3.3884 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons week - on - week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 152.7293 million tons, an increase of 1.6344 million tons week - on - week, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3122 million tons, an increase of 91,500 tons [1][5]. - Overall: In the short term, the impact of the macro - environment has weakened, and demand has marginally declined. It is expected that iron ore will show a volatile and pressured trend [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3046 | 9 | 0.30 | 5713284 | 2644571 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3250 | 46 | 1.44 | 2311059 | 1501678 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 771.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1404210 | 561141 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1248.5 | 69.5 | 5.89 | 5960825 | 939022 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1757.5 | 81.5 | 4.86 | 116416 | 49180 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Futures market: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated upwards. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and an important consensus was reached on Sino - US tariffs. Supported by a warm macro - atmosphere, the futures market was strong. - Spot market: The price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 783 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Super Special powder was 705 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 78 yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". It is proposed that in key areas, the total steel production capacity should not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited. The capacity replacement ratio for iron - making and steel - making in each province (region, municipality) should not be less than 1.5:1. - On October 28, the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development were released, aiming to optimize and upgrade traditional industries. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction starting from December 1. - The Ministry of Commerce introduced the consensus on the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls and the Section 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly [9]. Relevant Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, basis, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and other aspects, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [7][10][12] etc.
发运到港回落,铁矿震荡反弹
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 05:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side has seen an increase in recent maintenance, leading to a sequential decline in hot metal production. Based on blast furnace shutdown and restart plans, hot metal production is expected to continue decreasing next week. The supply side shows that both overseas shipments and arrivals decreased sequentially last week, and shipments in July are forecasted to decline sequentially, potentially alleviating inventory pressure slightly. Affected by internal and external policies, iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [1][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3,072 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan (2.57%), with a total trading volume of 9,806,031 lots and a total open interest of 3,184,065 lots. - SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,201 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (2.56%), with a total trading volume of 3,372,278 lots and a total open interest of 1,595,284 lots. - DCE iron ore closed at 732.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (2.23%), with a total trading volume of 1,988,565 lots and a total open interest of 639,417 lots. - DCE coking coal closed at 839.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (-0.94%), with a total trading volume of 6,574,591 lots and a total open interest of 757,780 lots. - DCE coke closed at 1,433 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan (0.81%), with a total trading volume of 142,161 lots and a total open interest of 57,347 lots. [2] Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. Affected by internal and external policies, market sentiment improved. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 723 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton sequentially, and the price of Super Special powder was 610 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton sequentially. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 113 yuan/ton. - On the demand side, recent maintenance increased, causing hot metal production to decline sequentially. According to the blast furnace shutdown and restart plan, hot metal production is expected to continue to decrease next week. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a sequential decrease of 0.36 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.65 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a sequential decrease of 0.54 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.21 percentage points; the steel mill profit rate was 59.31%, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 14.72 percentage points; the average daily hot metal production was 2.4085 million tons, a sequential decrease of 14,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 15,300 tons. - On the supply side, both overseas shipments and arrivals decreased sequentially last week. Shipments in July are expected to decline sequentially, potentially alleviating inventory pressure slightly. Last week, the total global iron ore shipments were 3.3576 million tons, a sequential decrease of 149,100 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.8823 million tons, a sequential decrease of 178,500 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1.999 million tons, a sequential decrease of 110,900 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.7768 million tons, a sequential decrease of 41,800 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 883,300 tons, a sequential decrease of 67,700 tons. The iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2.7872 million tons, a sequential decrease of 222,600 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1.9091 million tons, a sequential decrease of 159,000 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.6973 million tons, a sequential decrease of 82,900 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 878,100 tons, a sequential decrease of 63,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14.4859 million tons, a sequential increase of 5,670 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 334,190 tons, a decrease of 4,750 tons. [4][5] Industry News - In response to the news of "emission reduction and production restriction in Tangshan from July 4th to 15th", Mysteel conducted a follow - up survey on full - process steel enterprises in Tangshan. The manufacturers said they had received the notice. Affected by air quality, they were basically continuing the control in late June. Currently, sintering production was restricted by 30%, and some blast furnaces were not operating at full capacity, with limited impact on overall production. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission was held to study issues such as promoting the in - depth construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to govern the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, standardize government procurement, bidding, and investment promotion, and strive to promote the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade and continuously carry out special actions to standardize law enforcement involving enterprises. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnamese exports to the US will be subject to a 20% tariff, and any transshipped goods will be subject to a 40% tariff. In addition, Vietnam has agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods. - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. [10] Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and iron ore shipments, arrivals, and port inventory. [9][11][13][21][23][28][29][31][32][34][36][38][40][42][44][47][49][50][52][53][55][57]
海外发运高位,铁矿震荡偏弱
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:29
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply side shows that the overseas shipment volume rebounded last week, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years. On the demand side, steel mills' furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season have increased recently, leading to a continuous decline in molten iron production. With the steel demand entering the off - season, the molten iron output is decreasing while the supply is strong [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 2969 yuan/ton, a decline of 6 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.20%. The total trading volume was 8652225 lots, and the total open interest was 3086173 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3082 yuan/ton, a decline of 10 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.32%. The total trading volume was 2922804 lots, and the total open interest was 1566756 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 704.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.5 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.49%. The total trading volume was 1262009 lots, and the total open interest was 716699 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 774.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.0 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.51%. The total trading volume was 6009851 lots, and the total open interest was 695773 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1349.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.0 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.07%. The total trading volume was 158036 lots, and the total open interest was 56573 lots [2]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the iron ore futures showed a fluctuating trend. The molten iron output decreased slightly. The positive news from the Sino - US negotiations had limited boost to the market. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 719 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 613 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - grade PB powder and low - grade Super Special powder was 106 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, steel mills' furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season increased. The molten iron output continued to decline. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.36 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.05 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.66 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [1][4]. - On the supply side, the overseas shipment volume rebounded last week, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years. The global iron ore shipment volume was 3510.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.4 tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2919.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50.6 tons. The total shipment volume from Australia was 2169.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 249.3 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1892.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 392.2 tons. The total shipment volume from Brazil was 749.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 198.7 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 315.25 tons, a decrease of 13.81 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - On June 6, the Western Range Iron Ore Project jointly developed by Rio Tinto Group and Baowu Resources was officially put into operation. The project can produce up to 25 million tons of iron ore per year, with a total production capacity of 130 million tons and an average iron grade of about 62% [9]. - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK. The two sides had a frank and in - depth dialogue, exchanged in - depth views on economic and trade issues of concern, reached a principle consensus on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns [9]. - On June 13, 2025, the Israeli Air Force launched air strikes on dozens of targets related to Iran's nuclear program and other military facilities in Iran and named the operation "Lion's Strength". The Israeli military said that Iran had enough enriched uranium to manufacture multiple bombs within a few days, so action was needed to address this "imminent threat" [9]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes a series of charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis trends, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and other aspects [8][10][12].
铁矿周报:铁水产量见顶,铁矿调整为主-20250519
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 08:03
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillatory adjustment due to the weakening fundamentals. The supply side shows that last week's shipping and arrival volumes both declined month - on - month, with shipping volume at a medium level in recent years and arrival volume at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating a relatively loose supply. On the demand side, the number of steel mill overhauls increased last week, combined with the weakening downstream demand, leading to a decline in molten iron production from its peak [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3082 yuan/ton, a rise of 60 yuan, a rise rate of 1.99%, a total trading volume of 9932652 lots, and a total open interest of 2795790 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3226 yuan/ton, a rise of 69 yuan, a rise rate of 2.19%, a total trading volume of 3176582 lots, and a total open interest of 1362524 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 728.0 yuan/ton, a rise of 32.0 yuan, a rise rate of 4.60%, a total trading volume of 2364452 lots, and a total open interest of 757976 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 852.5 yuan/ton, a fall of 25.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 2.85%, a total trading volume of 2616452 lots, and a total open interest of 464062 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1445.5 yuan/ton, a fall of 1.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 0.07%, a total trading volume of 132073 lots, and a total open interest of 51651 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated and rose, mainly driven by the macro - environment, but were dragged down by the weakening molten iron production, resulting in a fall after reaching a high. In the spot market, the price of Rizhao Port PB powder was 765 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 638 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 127 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, the number of steel mill overhauls increased last week, combined with the weakening downstream demand, leading to a decline in molten iron production from its peak. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.36 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 244.77 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.88 tons [4]. - On the supply side, last week's shipping and arrival volumes both declined month - on - month, with shipping volume at a medium level in recent years and arrival volume at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating a relatively loose supply. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2422.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 117.9 tons. The Australian shipping volume was 1797.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.0 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1593.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 75.4 tons. The Brazilian shipping volume was 625.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 146.0 tons. The total global iron ore shipping volume was 3029.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.5 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14746.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.72 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 339.59 tons, an increase of 11.08 tons [5]. Industry News - The joint statement of the China - US high - level economic and trade talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China also correspondingly suspended or cancelled non - tariff counter - measures against the US. Both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [6][7]. - According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy application volume has exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy application volume for automobile trade - in reached 3.225 million, of which new - energy vehicles accounted for more than 53% [10]. - From January to April, the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; the new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the money supply M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than last month [10]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis trends, steel mill profits, black metal smelting and rolling industry profitability, iron ore supply and demand indicators (such as shipping volume, arrival volume, inventory, etc.), and steel production and consumption indicators (such as daily and monthly production, apparent consumption, etc.) [9][11][13]