黑色金属月报-铁矿 吨钢利润收缩 矿价承压 2025年9月1日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 吨钢利润收缩 矿价承压 8月铁矿主流现货价格反弹，月度涨幅在12-30元不等。具体来看，卡粉（+23），PB粉（+15），BRBF （+30），金布巴（+13）， 超特粉（+33），mac（+12）。块矿方面，PB块（+17） ，纽曼块（+35），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（+52）。普氏62%指数方面，截止8 月29日，普氏指数收于103.6美元，月环比回升4.55美元，目前按汇率7.13折算人民币大致在860元左右。仓单方面，截止8月29日，最 优交割品为NM粉，目前最新报价在776元/吨左右，折算仓单（厂库）为801元/吨左右，09铁矿平水现货，除NM粉之外，次优交割品为pb 粉。 库存方面：中国47港铁矿石库存环比去库，低于去年同期。截止目前，47港铁矿石库存总量14388.02万吨，环比去库56万吨,较年 初去库1222万吨,比去年同期库存低1691万吨。下期从卸货端考虑，到港回升；从需求端考虑，铁水小 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's supply - demand fundamentals have changed. The market is bearish in the short - term, and the ore price is expected to continue the downward trend in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the decline in hot metal production [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term outlook is weakly volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the downward pressure on ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The demand for iron ore is weakening as steel mills' production slows down during the off - season, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. On the supply side, port arrivals are increasing, overseas miners' shipments remain high, and domestic ore production is active, leading to a large supply pressure. As a result, the iron ore fundamentals are continuously weakening, and the ore price is under pressure [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The downstream construction demand continues to decline on a month - on - month basis, and the apparent demand for major steel products has also weakened. The valuation of the black sector continues to oscillate weakly. Recently, the shipment volume of mainstream mines has increased slightly on a month - on - month basis. The iron - water production has reached an inflection point, but downstream construction is still at a relatively high level. Overall, the supply - demand fundamentals show signs of entering the off - season, with a lack of demand highlights. Coupled with the strengthened market expectation of increased iron ore supply in the second half of the year, it is difficult for the futures price to obtain continuous price support. In the short term, the iron ore price may continue to oscillate weakly [4][48]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Periodic and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 oscillated downward, closing at 718.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 750,000 lots, a decrease of 6,700 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of imported iron ore at ports remained stable this week. Among them, the price of 64.5% Karara fines at Qingdao Port dropped 13 yuan/ton to 845 yuan/ton, and the price of 62.5% BRBF dropped 16 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton. For domestic iron ore, the price of 66% iron concentrate in Tangshan dropped 5 yuan/ton to 930 yuan/ton, while the price of 66% iron concentrate in Hanxing and 65% iron concentrate in Laiwu increased by 21 yuan/ton to 947 yuan/ton and 865 yuan/ton respectively. The Platts 62% index closed at 98.95 US dollars/dry ton this week, a week - on - week increase of 2.15 US dollars/dry ton [8]. 1.2 Spread Changes - **Spot Variety Spread**: This week, the price decline of low - grade ore at ports was relatively small, and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores narrowed [15]. - **Periodic - Spot and Futures Inter - Month Spread**: This week, the main iron ore contract 2509 was at a discount of 107.1 yuan/ton compared to the 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port, 3.1 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The spread between 2509 - 2601 was 35.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the spread between 2601 - 2605 was 55.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous week [20]. 2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 2.1 Supply - **Foreign Ore Shipment and Domestic Arrival**: As of May 16, the weekly shipment volume from Australia was 1.6489 billion tons, and that from Brazil was 751.1 million tons, a total of 2.4 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 250.1 million tons. The arrival volume at northern Chinese ports was 1.0578 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 203.6 million tons [25]. - **Domestic Ore Capacity Utilization**: As of May 23, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines nationwide was 66.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.54% [26]. - **Iron Ore Freight**: The freight from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 18.86 US dollars, the same as the previous period, and the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was 8.48 US dollars, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 US dollars. Recently, the shipment volume of mainstream mines has increased slightly on a month - on - month basis [27]. 2.2 Demand - As of May 23, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 91.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. The total weekly output of five major steel products was 8.7244 million tons, an increase of 40,900 tons from the previous week, mainly driven by the increase in rebar and wire rod production. The iron - water production has reached an inflection point, but downstream construction is still at a relatively high level [35][36]. 2.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 139.8783 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7826 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons. In terms of components, Australian ore decreased by 1.074 million tons to 59.1268 million tons, Brazilian ore decreased by 693,900 tons to 52.3989 million tons, and trade ore decreased by 139,700 tons to 94.5341 million tons [39]. 2.4 Steel Mill Profits - With the appearance of the iron - water production inflection point, the profit situation of steel mills has improved with the continuous decline in coking coal and coke prices. In terms of futures profits, as of May 23, the futures profit of the rebar 2510 contract was 123.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.74 yuan/ton from last week; the futures profit of the hot - rolled coil 2510 contract was 216.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.74 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of spot profits, as of May 23, the spot profit of rebar was 71.30 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.17 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot profit of hot - rolled coil was 101.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.83 yuan/ton from the previous week [42]. 2.5 Technical Analysis - This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 oscillated downward, closing at 718.0 yuan/ton. The short - term upper resistance level is 802 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 640 yuan/ton [46].