Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints In August, the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore ran smoothly, with port inventories showing a continuous downward trend and prices remaining relatively stable. However, the supply pressure increased as the current shipment reached a new high for the year, with significant increases in Brazil and non - mainstream mines, and obvious rebounds in arrivals. On the demand side, the molten iron output continued to decline month - on - month, and the northern production restrictions at the end of the month would cause periodic disturbances to demand, weakening the supply - demand situation. In terms of valuation, after the finished product prices fell, the spot and futures profits shrank significantly, causing price pressure adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support around $90, and cautious operations are recommended [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: In August, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore rebounded, with monthly increases ranging from 12 - 30 yuan. As of August 29, the Platts 62% index was at $103.6, up $4.55 month - on - month, equivalent to about 860 yuan in RMB. The optimal deliverable product was NM powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the 09 iron ore was at par with the spot [6]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory was 143.88 million tons, a decrease of 560,000 tons from the previous period, 12.22 million tons from the beginning of the year, and 16.91 million tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory may increase slightly in the next period [6]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume in this period was 3.5568 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 241,000 tons. The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.8081 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 115,000 tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1.8115 million tons, a decrease of 69,500 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.4504 million tons, a decrease of 207,800 tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 996,600 tons, an increase of 185,000 tons [7]. - **Demand**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills in this period was 240,130 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 6,200 tons per day. There were 4 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 blast furnace restarts. According to the blast furnace shutdown and restart plan, the molten iron output may continue to decline in the next period [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: As of August 29, the optimal deliverable product was Newman powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal was PB powder [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period**: As of August 29, the spread between iron ore 09 and 01 contracts was 15.5 (-3.5) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: The content does not mention relevant data. - **High - Low Grade Price Difference**: The content does not mention relevant data. - **Premium Index**: As of August 28, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.1835 (+0.0025), and that for 65% pellets was 16.4 (+0.4) [26]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: The content presents the inventory trends and premium (discount) situations of various iron ore brands in 15 ports [29]. - **Steel Mill Sintered Fine Ore Inventory**: As of August 29, the imported sintered fine ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills was 1.206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%, and the domestic sintered fine ore inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.94% [32]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory & Daily Consumption**: As of August 29, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9.0072 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%, and the daily consumption was 296,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% [35]. - **Port Inventory, Berthing**: The content shows the trends of port total inventory, berthing ship numbers, and inventories of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores in 45 ports [38]. - **Port Inventory - By Ore Type**: As of August 29, the imported port lump ore inventory was 1.654 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%; the pellet ore inventory was 283,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.75%; the iron concentrate inventory was 1.113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; and the coarse powder inventory was 10.713 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20% [41]. - **Siltage**: The content presents the historical siltage volume data from 2020 - 2025 [44]. - **Iron Ore Floating Quantity**: The content shows the floating quantity trends of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries to China [47]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantity**: The content presents the import quantity trends of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [50][51][57]. - **Australia's Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: As of August 29, Australia's shipment to China was 1.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.53%, and the total shipment was 1.812 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69% [60]. - **Brazil's Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: As of August 29, Brazil's shipment to the world was 997,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.78% [65]. - **Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines**: As of August 29, the total shipment volume of the four major mines was 2.112 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Among them, Vale's shipment volume increased significantly, while Rio Tinto's decreased [66]. - **Iron Ore Arrival**: As of August 29, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.526 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.5%, and the arrival volume at northern ports was 1.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.8% [73]. - **Freight**: The content shows the historical freight trends from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao [75]. - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: As of August 29, the iron concentrate output of mines was 76,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%, and the inventory was 33,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% [77]. - **Steel Mill Fine Ore Daily Consumption & Steel Mill Capacity Utilization**: As of August 29, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%, and the average daily molten iron output was 240,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [79]. - **Pig Iron Production**: The content presents the daily pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [84]. - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The content shows the pig iron production trends of the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China [87]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The content presents the pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [92].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's supply - demand fundamentals have changed. The market is bearish in the short - term, and the ore price is expected to continue the downward trend in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the decline in hot metal production [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term outlook is weakly volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the downward pressure on ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The demand for iron ore is weakening as steel mills' production slows down during the off - season, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. On the supply side, port arrivals are increasing, overseas miners' shipments remain high, and domestic ore production is active, leading to a large supply pressure. As a result, the iron ore fundamentals are continuously weakening, and the ore price is under pressure [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The downstream construction demand continues to decline on a month - on - month basis, and the apparent demand for major steel products has also weakened. The valuation of the black sector continues to oscillate weakly. Recently, the shipment volume of mainstream mines has increased slightly on a month - on - month basis. The iron - water production has reached an inflection point, but downstream construction is still at a relatively high level. Overall, the supply - demand fundamentals show signs of entering the off - season, with a lack of demand highlights. Coupled with the strengthened market expectation of increased iron ore supply in the second half of the year, it is difficult for the futures price to obtain continuous price support. In the short term, the iron ore price may continue to oscillate weakly [4][48]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Periodic and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 oscillated downward, closing at 718.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 750,000 lots, a decrease of 6,700 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of imported iron ore at ports remained stable this week. Among them, the price of 64.5% Karara fines at Qingdao Port dropped 13 yuan/ton to 845 yuan/ton, and the price of 62.5% BRBF dropped 16 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton. For domestic iron ore, the price of 66% iron concentrate in Tangshan dropped 5 yuan/ton to 930 yuan/ton, while the price of 66% iron concentrate in Hanxing and 65% iron concentrate in Laiwu increased by 21 yuan/ton to 947 yuan/ton and 865 yuan/ton respectively. The Platts 62% index closed at 98.95 US dollars/dry ton this week, a week - on - week increase of 2.15 US dollars/dry ton [8]. 1.2 Spread Changes - **Spot Variety Spread**: This week, the price decline of low - grade ore at ports was relatively small, and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores narrowed [15]. - **Periodic - Spot and Futures Inter - Month Spread**: This week, the main iron ore contract 2509 was at a discount of 107.1 yuan/ton compared to the 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port, 3.1 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The spread between 2509 - 2601 was 35.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the spread between 2601 - 2605 was 55.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous week [20]. 2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 2.1 Supply - **Foreign Ore Shipment and Domestic Arrival**: As of May 16, the weekly shipment volume from Australia was 1.6489 billion tons, and that from Brazil was 751.1 million tons, a total of 2.4 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 250.1 million tons. The arrival volume at northern Chinese ports was 1.0578 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 203.6 million tons [25]. - **Domestic Ore Capacity Utilization**: As of May 23, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines nationwide was 66.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.54% [26]. - **Iron Ore Freight**: The freight from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 18.86 US dollars, the same as the previous period, and the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was 8.48 US dollars, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 US dollars. Recently, the shipment volume of mainstream mines has increased slightly on a month - on - month basis [27]. 2.2 Demand - As of May 23, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 91.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. The total weekly output of five major steel products was 8.7244 million tons, an increase of 40,900 tons from the previous week, mainly driven by the increase in rebar and wire rod production. The iron - water production has reached an inflection point, but downstream construction is still at a relatively high level [35][36]. 2.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 139.8783 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7826 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons. In terms of components, Australian ore decreased by 1.074 million tons to 59.1268 million tons, Brazilian ore decreased by 693,900 tons to 52.3989 million tons, and trade ore decreased by 139,700 tons to 94.5341 million tons [39]. 2.4 Steel Mill Profits - With the appearance of the iron - water production inflection point, the profit situation of steel mills has improved with the continuous decline in coking coal and coke prices. In terms of futures profits, as of May 23, the futures profit of the rebar 2510 contract was 123.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.74 yuan/ton from last week; the futures profit of the hot - rolled coil 2510 contract was 216.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.74 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of spot profits, as of May 23, the spot profit of rebar was 71.30 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.17 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot profit of hot - rolled coil was 101.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.83 yuan/ton from the previous week [42]. 2.5 Technical Analysis - This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 oscillated downward, closing at 718.0 yuan/ton. The short - term upper resistance level is 802 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 640 yuan/ton [46].