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2025H2全球铜矿供给更为紧俏 | 投研报告
五矿证券近日发布有色金属海内外24家半年报全扫描:2025H1全球头部铜企产量741万 吨,同比+20万吨,同比增速为2.8%。从同比增速来看,24家铜矿企业中,仅有9家企业的 产量同比增速出现下滑,减量的原因主要系原矿品位和回收率降低、水资源限制等外部干扰 等。从同比增量来看,贡献主要增量的为力拓(同比+11万吨)、五矿资源(同比+10万 吨)、智利国家铜业(同比+6万吨)、紫金矿业(同比+5万吨)等。 以下为研究报告摘要: 事件描述 我们梳理了全球24家铜矿企业(2025H1头部24家铜企合计产量为741万吨,市占率60% 以上)的半年报及投资者交流纪要,想要回答以下几个问题: 事件点评 (1)从全年产量指引来看,2025年头部铜企产量指引难言乐观。根据最新的产量指 引,2025年头部铜企的产量指引预计同比+1.7%,相较于2025年初的产量指引有所下调(年 初的产量指引同比+2.8%)。例如,嘉能可、泰克资源、智利国家铜业等下调了产量指引; 力拓预期产量位于指引上限。综合来看,产量指引合计下调了11.4万吨(公告产量指引上/下 沿的按照指引最高/低值计算,其余按照中值计算)。下调指引的原因包括尾矿建设延 ...
海内外24家半年报全扫描:2025H2全球铜矿供给更为紧俏
Minmetals Securities· 2025-10-09 07:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The global copper supply is expected to remain tight in the second half of 2025, with a projected production of 570 million tons from major mining companies, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [2][24] - The average C1 cash cost for major copper companies decreased to $1.72 per pound in the first half of 2025, down 8.7% year-on-year, with most companies experiencing a decline in costs due to increased copper production and strong by-product prices [3][21] - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources is anticipated to create a top five global copper producer, with an annual output exceeding 1.2 million tons [3][36] Summary by Sections Section 1: Supply and Demand - In the first half of 2025, the production of the top 24 copper companies reached 7.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20,000 tons, with a growth rate of 2.8% [1][11] - The production guidance for 2025 has been revised downwards to a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, compared to an initial forecast of 2.8% [2][13] Section 2: Cost Analysis - The average C1 cash cost for 15 copper companies was $1.72 per pound in the first half of 2025, with only four companies reporting an increase in costs [3][21] - The decline in costs is attributed to higher copper output and favorable by-product prices, particularly for companies like Minmetals Resources and Antofagasta [25][21] Section 3: Financial Performance - Chinese copper companies showed an increase in net profit margins and free cash flow, while overseas companies experienced declines in these metrics [29][30] - The free cash flow for overseas copper companies dropped by an average of 54%, contrasting with a 432% increase for Chinese companies [29][30] Section 4: Strategic Developments - Freeport-McMoRan is advocating for U.S. policies to boost refined copper production and is exploring copper scrap as a potential source [36] - The Cobre Panama mine is under consideration for a restart in early 2026, with ongoing negotiations between Panama and First Quantum Minerals [36]