Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to the weak employment performance in the US, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased, and there are production disturbances in multiple copper mines both at home and abroad. This may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in the price of Shanghai copper. The trading strategy suggests short - term light - position buying on dips for the main contract, with attention to support and resistance levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - **Price**: On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 86590 (down 10 from the previous day), and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper half - average price was 86655 (up 45 from the previous day). The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic disk) was 10953 (up 120.5 from the previous day) [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai copper on November 26, 2025, was 107213 lots (an increase of 20231 lots from the previous day), and the open interest was 204728 lots (an increase of 5146 lots from the previous day) [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper increased compared to last week. The Chinese copper inventory on November 26, 2025, was 39825 tons (a decrease of 1140 tons from the previous day) [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances in multiple copper mines both at home and abroad, causing the Chinese copper concentrate import index to remain negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased compared to the previous month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper cups decreased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Short - term light - position buying on dips for the main contract. Pay attention to the support level around 82000 - 84000 and the resistance level around 88000 - 90000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, focus on the support level around 10300 - 10500 and the resistance level around 11000 - 11500. For US copper, note the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The Sino-US reached a one-year economic and trade agreement, and there are production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines. However, due to the Fed's more hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, the strengthening of the US dollar index and the tightening of liquidity may lead to an adjustment in the price of Shanghai copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the closing price was 85,740, a decrease of 1,560 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 166,742 lots, an increase of 16,145 lots. The open interest was 227,549 lots, a decrease of 21,213 lots. The inventory was 41,147 tons, an increase of 1,081 tons [2]. - **LME Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,649, a decrease of 170 compared to the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -30.45, a decrease of 4.75 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.9255, a decrease of 0.19 [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, resulting in a continuous negative import index of copper concentrates in China, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, and copper enameled wires have decreased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rates of recycled copper rods, copper strips, and copper tubes have increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week. The inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Lightly short the main contract on rallies. Pay attention to the support level of 81,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level of 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, the support level is around 10,200 - 10,500 and the resistance level is around 11,500 - 12,000. For US copper, the support level is around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level is around 5.5 - 6.0 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariff re - imposition, expectations of future Fed rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be weak first and then strong. The report suggests waiting for the price to fall before laying out long positions [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data 1. Shanghai Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai copper inventory was 36,295 tons, an increase of 3,405 tons from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi average price was 86,668.945, the SMM premium copper open - discount - average price was 100, the Shanghai copper basis was 1,580, and the trading volume was 210,984 lots, a decrease of 80,438 lots from the previous day [1] 2. London Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,598.5, a decrease of 203.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 153, a decrease of 56.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 54.87, a decrease of 171.91 from the previous day [1] 3. COMEX Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the total COMEX copper inventory was 342,280, an increase of 2,755 from the previous day; the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.998, an increase of 0.15 from the previous day; the open interest was 187,566 lots, a decrease of 14,265 lots from the previous day [1] 4. Price Ratio and Premium Data - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9643, an increase of 0.08 from the previous day; the SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) - average price was 110, and the SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) - average price was 53, a decrease of 1 from the previous day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding a 50% tariff on certain copper products has led to significant volatility in copper prices, impacting both domestic and global markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - On July 31, A-share copper mining stocks experienced a collective decline, with major companies like Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum falling over 4% [1] - The announcement caused a dramatic drop in copper futures, with COMEX copper prices plummeting over 18% to $4.63 per pound, marking the largest single-day decline in history [2] - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper contracts narrowed significantly, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The new tariff policy is seen as a correction to the previously inflated expectations for U.S. copper prices, leading to a more balanced import strategy [3] - U.S. refined copper imports surged to 864,000 tons in the first half of the year, a 147% increase year-on-year, indicating a supply surplus [3] - If the price difference between U.S. and LME copper contracts turns negative, it could lead to a significant outflow of copper stocks from the U.S. to Asia and Europe, creating inventory pressures [3] Group 3: Future Policy Uncertainty - The prospect of U.S. refined copper import tariffs is not entirely off the table, with potential plans for a 15% tariff in 2027 and a 30% tariff in 2028 [4] - The volatility in U.S. copper prices poses challenges for companies in managing risks effectively, as market conditions are increasingly influenced by geopolitical factors [4] - The impact of the new tariff policy on China's copper exports is expected to be limited, with China accounting for only 5.2% of U.S. copper imports [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper prices are under pressure due to a combination of factors including the U.S. decision not to impose tariffs on copper raw materials and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in copper prices [1] - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives effective from August 1, which is less severe than previously expected, resulting in a significant drop in U.S. copper prices [1] - China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1] Group 2 - Jinrui Futures notes that the recent tariff implementation may lead to potential logistics recovery, which could result in an oversupply situation, necessitating observation of consumer resilience [2] - If consumption continues to underperform expectations, there is a risk of price declines in the copper market [2]

Macro News - The U.S. economy grew by 3% in Q2, exceeding the expected 2.4% [1] - The ADP employment number for July increased by 104,000, surpassing the expected 75,000, marking the highest growth since March [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with dissenting votes from Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut [1] - Powell emphasized a data-driven approach and stated that the current monetary policy stance is favorable, suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be temporary [1] Market Sentiment - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 54.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 45.7% [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have adjusted, with a focus on potential cuts only in October [2] - The recent GDP and ADP data indicate a robust U.S. economy, leading to a stronger dollar and pressure on precious metals [2] - Despite short-term market fluctuations, there are ongoing risks of inflation rebound and economic slowdown, suggesting that precious metals may continue to experience wide fluctuations at high levels [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal divisions persisting. Powell's remarks were seen as hawkish, reducing the probability of a September rate cut, leading to declines in US stocks and gold, and significant rebounds in the US dollar and Treasury yields. The US economic growth slowdown in the first half was removed from the statement, and no signal of a September rate cut was given. The US Q2 GDP data rebounded more than expected, but the growth center has shifted down overall. Tariffs are becoming a slow - moving variable, and the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in late August is important. The medium - and long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Refined copper being excluded from tariffs and the cooling of the anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver, which is expected to follow gold in a weak oscillation in the short term [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Focus on Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, and Powell said it was too early to determine a September rate cut [2] - The initial annualized Q2 real GDP in the US increased by 3% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding the expected 2.4%. The initial quarter - on - quarter increase in real personal consumption expenditure was 1.4%, slightly lower than the expected 1.5%. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3% [2] - The number of ADP employed people in the US in July increased by 104,000, exceeding the estimate of 75,000 [2] - The US Treasury plans to set the quarterly refinancing bond issuance at $125 billion, in line with expectations, and expects bond issuance to remain stable for at least the next few quarters [2] - Trump said India will pay a 25% tariff and a fine related to purchasing Russian military equipment and energy starting from August 1 [2] Price Logic - The Fed's inaction in the interest - rate meeting, combined with the hawkish remarks, led to market reactions. The Q2 GDP data showed a significant impact from tariffs, and the growth center has shifted down. The main contract of COMEX gold changed to 2512, causing price - spread fluctuations. The support level of spot gold at 3250 should be watched. The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs and the cooling of anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver [3] Outlook - The weekly range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between 3250 and 3450, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between 36 and 40 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is currently experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand slowdown, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and is awaiting more definitive guidance as the August 1 deadline approaches [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The night trading session for copper opened slightly higher but fell back, closing down by 0.18% [1] - Domestic demand is currently weak, leading to a limited accumulation of social inventory [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are anticipated, with the market expecting the Fed to maintain its current stance [1] Group 2: Trade Developments - A trade framework agreement was reached between the U.S. and the EU, reducing market uncertainty [1] - Ongoing attention is required on the progress of U.S.-China negotiations [1] - There are rumors regarding the potential implementation of tariffs on imported copper by the U.S. on August 1, including possible exemptions [1] Group 3: Chilean Copper Tariffs - Chile's finance minister indicated expectations for U.S. copper tariff exemptions, leading to a significant drop in U.S. copper prices, which affected LME and Shanghai copper prices [1] - Chile accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. copper imports; if exemptions are granted, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper will narrow significantly [1] - Despite potential exemptions, U.S. copper prices are expected to remain higher than non-U.S. markets due to ongoing tariffs [1] Group 4: Processing Fees - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are still operating at low levels, and the tight supply situation is unlikely to change in the short term [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of Fed rate cuts, potential disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It advises investors to hold existing long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740 yuan, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 73,257 lots, down 6,755 lots. The open interest was 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,755 yuan, up 200 yuan, and the spot - futures spread was 15 yuan, up 160 yuan [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: In different regions, the spot premiums of electrolytic copper showed various changes. For example, the Guangzhou spot premium was - 10 yuan, down 25 yuan; the North China spot premium was - 120 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the East China spot premium was 90 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 22, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,888 dollars, up 31 dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (presumably data error in the text), and the previous day's value was 124,850 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22, 2025, was 5.768 dollars, up 0.19 dollars. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Production Forecast**: Nornickel expects this year's copper production to be 343,000 tons, lower than the previous estimate. Anglo Asian Mining PLC's Denirli copper mine in the Fuzuli - Karabakh Economic Region has started production, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - **Export Outlook**: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of some refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. SMM expects the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July [2]. 3.3 Macro - economic Situation The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. The import tariff has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate in US consumer prices in June. However, the US RPP annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The expectation of Powell's early departure and Fed rate cuts has increased, raising the probability of rate cuts in September or December [3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - **Upstream**: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The export (import, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at ports in the world (China) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in July may change (decrease, increase). Some smelters have production issues, while others are starting new projects or expanding production, which may lead to an increase in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper and electrolytic copper in July. The import window for electrolytic copper is closed, and the inventory in China's bonded area remains flat, while the social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has increased [5]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has increased compared to last week. The overall demand is still weak, but the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries has increased. However, due to factors such as the Sino - US tariff issue and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline (decrease, decrease, decrease, increase). The domestic electrolytic copper holders are actively supporting prices, and the supply of deliverable trading brands is tight, while the price of non - standard trading brands is low [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver, with various institutions raising their price forecasts due to increased investment demand and tightening physical supply [2][4][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 57% this year, while silver has risen by 30%, both reaching multi-year highs [2][4]. - The performance of palladium and copper has also been notable, with increases of over 36% and 36% respectively, while gold has risen by 26% [2]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has been strong, with a 19.54% increase, ranking first among 31 sectors [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Trends - There has been a surge in sales of silver products, such as silver bars and coins, alongside a continuous increase in silver ETF shares [3]. - Citigroup has raised its price targets for platinum and silver, predicting silver could exceed $40 per ounce in the coming months due to tightening supply and rising investment demand [4]. - The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical tensions and economic downturns could further boost gold prices by 10% to 15% [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other sectors, with all sub-industries showing positive growth [6]. - The precious metals sector has led the market, with specific ETFs linked to precious metals showing significant year-to-date gains [6]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of investment demand in driving silver prices, indicating a strong correlation between investment demand and price movements [5]. Group 4: Strategic Metals and Policy Risks - The article discusses the political and policy risk premiums associated with trading strategic metals, highlighting the need for a long-term view on supply chains and national security [7].