王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 沪铜日评20251015: 加征关税存不确定和铜矿供给预期紧张扰动铜价 | | --- | | 近期走势 变量名称 2025-10-14 2025-10-13 2025-09-26 较昨日变动 | | 库存(吨) 36295 32890 26557 3, 405. 00 | | SMM 1#电解铜-半均价 06668 945.00 85045 82485 | | SMM升水铜开贴水一平均价 100 150 40 -50.00 | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 SMM是法铜开贴水一半均价 -45 -45 -105 0. 00 | | (现货与期货) SMM贵溪铜开贴水-半均价 130 160 60 -30. 00 | | 45 49 53 -4. 00 | | 价差(近月与远月) | | 沪铜连二-沪铜连三 90 40 60 50. 00 | | 变量名称 2025-10-14 2025-10-13 2025-10-06 较昨日变动 近期走势 | | 伦敦铜 | | LME铜期货3-15个月合约价差 153 209. 5 36. ...

铜矿股异动主要受一则关税消息影响。当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起对进口 半成品铜产品（例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管）及铜密集型衍生产品（例如管件、电缆、连接器 和电气元件）普遍征收50%关税。铜输入材料（例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和阳极铜）和铜废料 不受"232条款"或对等关税约束。 特朗普将进口量最大的精炼铜排除在关税清单之外的决定出乎市场意料。消息发布当日，美国纽约商品 交易所（COMEX）铜主力合约（下称"美铜"）单日盘中暴跌超18%至4.63美元/磅，创历史最大单日跌 幅。同日，英国伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜主力合约（下称"伦铜"）收跌0.74%至9730美元/吨。美铜与 伦铜之间的价差也从一日之前每吨约3500美元缩窄至500美元，溢价从28%大幅回落至5%左右。7月31 日，美铜继续下跌，跌幅一度超过20%，回吐4月初以来全部涨幅。 美国是全球第二大铜消费国。据美国地质调查局数据，2024年美国铜消费量约180万吨，其中精炼铜160 万吨、废铜20万吨。精炼铜消费中，约一半来自进口。 一德期货首席分析师王伟伟强调，精炼铜进口关税前景并未完全消失，美国未来铜贸易政策的 ...

沪铜早间低开，日内跌幅不断扩大，收盘下跌1.3%。美国不对铜原材料征税，对铜关税强度不及前期 预期，隔夜美铜大幅跳水，美国对铜相关关税逻辑将会重塑，美联储态度鹰派，美指反弹，日内工业品 走势疲弱，利空因素偏多，沪铜也显露疲态。 （文华综合） 隔夜美联储议息会议连续第五次按兵不动，符合市场预期，不过美联储主席表示尚未就9月利率做出任 何决定，这一表态相对鹰派，隔夜美指出现明显反弹。7月份，中国官方制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，受传统生产淡季、部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响。 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，展望后市，观察到国内反内卷刺激的部分商品有明显回落，预期驱动的 行情放缓，未来仍需检验现实。关税落地令物流有潜在回流，预计导致过剩兑现，需观察消费韧性情 况，若持续弱于预期则价格有回落风险。 美国对铜关税政策再度生变，隔夜美国白宫表示，美国总统特朗普宣布对进口半成品铜产品和铜密集型 衍生产品征收50%的普遍关税，自8月1日起生效。根据白宫发布的情况说明书，此次征收的关税不包括 废铜以及铜矿石、精矿、粗铜、阴极和阳极等铜原材料。关税强度明显不及前期预期，隔夜美铜出现坠 落一幕，伦 ...

Macro News - The U.S. economy grew by 3% in Q2, exceeding the expected 2.4% [1] - The ADP employment number for July increased by 104,000, surpassing the expected 75,000, marking the highest growth since March [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with dissenting votes from Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut [1] - Powell emphasized a data-driven approach and stated that the current monetary policy stance is favorable, suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be temporary [1] Market Sentiment - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 54.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 45.7% [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have adjusted, with a focus on potential cuts only in October [2] - The recent GDP and ADP data indicate a robust U.S. economy, leading to a stronger dollar and pressure on precious metals [2] - Despite short-term market fluctuations, there are ongoing risks of inflation rebound and economic slowdown, suggesting that precious metals may continue to experience wide fluctuations at high levels [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal divisions persisting. Powell's remarks were seen as hawkish, reducing the probability of a September rate cut, leading to declines in US stocks and gold, and significant rebounds in the US dollar and Treasury yields. The US economic growth slowdown in the first half was removed from the statement, and no signal of a September rate cut was given. The US Q2 GDP data rebounded more than expected, but the growth center has shifted down overall. Tariffs are becoming a slow - moving variable, and the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in late August is important. The medium - and long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Refined copper being excluded from tariffs and the cooling of the anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver, which is expected to follow gold in a weak oscillation in the short term [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Focus on Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, and Powell said it was too early to determine a September rate cut [2] - The initial annualized Q2 real GDP in the US increased by 3% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding the expected 2.4%. The initial quarter - on - quarter increase in real personal consumption expenditure was 1.4%, slightly lower than the expected 1.5%. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3% [2] - The number of ADP employed people in the US in July increased by 104,000, exceeding the estimate of 75,000 [2] - The US Treasury plans to set the quarterly refinancing bond issuance at $125 billion, in line with expectations, and expects bond issuance to remain stable for at least the next few quarters [2] - Trump said India will pay a 25% tariff and a fine related to purchasing Russian military equipment and energy starting from August 1 [2] Price Logic - The Fed's inaction in the interest - rate meeting, combined with the hawkish remarks, led to market reactions. The Q2 GDP data showed a significant impact from tariffs, and the growth center has shifted down. The main contract of COMEX gold changed to 2512, causing price - spread fluctuations. The support level of spot gold at 3250 should be watched. The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs and the cooling of anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver [3] Outlook - The weekly range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between 3250 and 3450, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between 36 and 40 [6]

最近国内铜精矿加工费仍然低位运行，矿紧局面短期难以改变。 沪铜夜盘小幅高开后出现回落，日内持续偏弱震荡，收盘下跌0.18%。国内正值需求淡季，社会库存略 有累积但幅度有限，临近8月1日关键节点，铜市等待更多确定性消息指引。 （文华综合） 本周美联储会议纪要即将落地，目前市场认为美联储将继续按兵不动。周末美国和欧盟达成贸易总体框 架，市场不确定性进一步回落，不过本周仍需关注中美谈判进展。另外，最近市场传言较多，美国对于 进口铜的关税是否将在8月1日正式落地以及是否会有豁免也值得重点关注。新湖期货表示，隔夜智利财 长表示预计将获得美国铜关税豁免，美铜大幅下跌，拖累LME及沪铜短暂回调。美国进口铜中智利约 占70%，若智利获得豁免，则COMEX与LME铜价差将大幅收窄，但因美铜关税仍在，COMEX铜价仍 将高于非美市场，已流入美国的铜再流出概率不大。该事件对COMEX铜价影响较大，对非美市场铜价 影响较小；关注8月1日美国铜关税落地情况。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of Fed rate cuts, potential disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It advises investors to hold existing long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740 yuan, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 73,257 lots, down 6,755 lots. The open interest was 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,755 yuan, up 200 yuan, and the spot - futures spread was 15 yuan, up 160 yuan [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: In different regions, the spot premiums of electrolytic copper showed various changes. For example, the Guangzhou spot premium was - 10 yuan, down 25 yuan; the North China spot premium was - 120 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the East China spot premium was 90 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 22, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,888 dollars, up 31 dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (presumably data error in the text), and the previous day's value was 124,850 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22, 2025, was 5.768 dollars, up 0.19 dollars. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Production Forecast**: Nornickel expects this year's copper production to be 343,000 tons, lower than the previous estimate. Anglo Asian Mining PLC's Denirli copper mine in the Fuzuli - Karabakh Economic Region has started production, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - **Export Outlook**: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of some refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. SMM expects the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July [2]. 3.3 Macro - economic Situation The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. The import tariff has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate in US consumer prices in June. However, the US RPP annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The expectation of Powell's early departure and Fed rate cuts has increased, raising the probability of rate cuts in September or December [3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - **Upstream**: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The export (import, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at ports in the world (China) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in July may change (decrease, increase). Some smelters have production issues, while others are starting new projects or expanding production, which may lead to an increase in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper and electrolytic copper in July. The import window for electrolytic copper is closed, and the inventory in China's bonded area remains flat, while the social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has increased [5]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has increased compared to last week. The overall demand is still weak, but the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries has increased. However, due to factors such as the Sino - US tariff issue and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline (decrease, decrease, decrease, increase). The domestic electrolytic copper holders are actively supporting prices, and the supply of deliverable trading brands is tight, while the price of non - standard trading brands is low [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver, with various institutions raising their price forecasts due to increased investment demand and tightening physical supply [2][4][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 57% this year, while silver has risen by 30%, both reaching multi-year highs [2][4]. - The performance of palladium and copper has also been notable, with increases of over 36% and 36% respectively, while gold has risen by 26% [2]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has been strong, with a 19.54% increase, ranking first among 31 sectors [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Trends - There has been a surge in sales of silver products, such as silver bars and coins, alongside a continuous increase in silver ETF shares [3]. - Citigroup has raised its price targets for platinum and silver, predicting silver could exceed $40 per ounce in the coming months due to tightening supply and rising investment demand [4]. - The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical tensions and economic downturns could further boost gold prices by 10% to 15% [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other sectors, with all sub-industries showing positive growth [6]. - The precious metals sector has led the market, with specific ETFs linked to precious metals showing significant year-to-date gains [6]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of investment demand in driving silver prices, indicating a strong correlation between investment demand and price movements [5]. Group 4: Strategic Metals and Policy Risks - The article discusses the political and policy risk premiums associated with trading strategic metals, highlighting the need for a long-term view on supply chains and national security [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increases in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver, with a strong performance across nearly all non-ferrous metals, driven by investment demand and market conditions [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 57% this year, while silver has risen by 30%, reaching a 14-year high [2][4]. - Investment in silver products, such as silver bars and coins, has surged, leading to a continuous increase in silver ETF shares [3][4]. - Citigroup has raised its price forecasts for silver and platinum, projecting silver to reach $40 per ounce in the next three months and $43 in the next 6-12 months [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries, with a year-to-date increase of 19.54%, leading all 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification [3][6]. - The demand for silver is primarily driven by investment, which has a positive correlation with silver prices, indicating a significant "amplifying" effect during a silver bull market [5]. - The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical tensions and economic downturns could further increase demand for gold, potentially raising its price by 10%-15% [4]. Group 3: Broader Non-Ferrous Metals Market - All sub-sectors within the non-ferrous metals industry have experienced price increases, with the precious metals sector leading at a 36.74% rise [6][7]. - The energy metals sector has seen a 12.69% increase, while the industrial metals sector has risen by 16.78% [7]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of considering long-term supply chain and national defense needs in the context of political risk premiums affecting strategic metals [7].

Group 1 - As of July 11, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai silver futures closed at 9040 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase in open interest by 152,238 contracts [1] - During the week of July 7-11, the Shanghai silver futures opened at 8919 yuan/kg, reached a high of 9118 yuan/kg, and a low of 8840 yuan/kg, resulting in a weekly change of 1.38% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials have signaled a dovish stance, with Waller suggesting a potential rate cut in July and Daly emphasizing that tariffs may not impact inflation as much as expected, indicating room for about two rate cuts this year [2] - On July 9, the trading volume for silver futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was 50,874 contracts, a decrease of 9,779 contracts from the previous trading day [2] - On July 10, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a decrease of 23,751 kg in silver warehouse receipts, with a total reduction of 43,634 kg over the past week, representing a decline of 3.25% [2] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Futures believes that after a significant rebound, silver prices will revert to fundamentals under commodity attributes, with global silver supply expected to increase and demand to decrease, narrowing the supply-demand gap to a four-year low [3] - Jinyuan Futures notes that despite Trump's tariffs boosting demand for safe-haven assets, a strong US dollar limits gold price increases, while high copper tariffs are positively impacting silver prices [3] - The current market's reduced sensitivity to tariffs and rising risk assets have diminished gold's attractiveness, while silver's strong performance is attributed to its low price and demand for a rebound [3]