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议息会议表述偏鹰,贵?属短线下挫
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 03:30
议息会议如期按兵不动,美联储内部分化持续,鲍威尔在措辞中删去经济 增⻓在上半年放缓的表述,且并未透露9⽉降息的信号,市场将此视为鹰 派表达,9⽉降息概率下降,盘中美股、⻩⾦下挫,美元及美债收益率显 著反弹。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-31 议息会议表述偏鹰,贵⾦属短线下挫 重点资讯: 1)美联储连续第五次按兵不动,将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4. 25%至4.5%之间不变,符合预期。美联储主席鲍威尔表示现在就断言 美联储是否会像金融市场预期的那样在9月下调联邦基金利率还为时 过早。他说,在关税和通胀仍充满不确定性的情况下,当前的利率水 平是合适的。鲍威尔表示,关税传导至价格的过程可能比之前预料的 更慢,判断关税对通胀的影响仍然太早。 2)美国第二季度实际GDP环比年化初值增3%,预期增2.4%,第一季度 终值减0.5%;实际个人消费支出初值环比增1.4%,预期增1.5%,第一 季度终值增0.5%;核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值为2.5%,预期2. 3%,前值3.5%。 3)美国7月ADP就业人数增加10.4万人,预估为增加7.5万人,前值为 减 ...
沪铜日评:国内铜治炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量初现下降-20250723
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 07:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of Fed rate cuts, potential disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It advises investors to hold existing long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740 yuan, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 73,257 lots, down 6,755 lots. The open interest was 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,755 yuan, up 200 yuan, and the spot - futures spread was 15 yuan, up 160 yuan [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: In different regions, the spot premiums of electrolytic copper showed various changes. For example, the Guangzhou spot premium was - 10 yuan, down 25 yuan; the North China spot premium was - 120 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the East China spot premium was 90 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 22, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,888 dollars, up 31 dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (presumably data error in the text), and the previous day's value was 124,850 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22, 2025, was 5.768 dollars, up 0.19 dollars. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Production Forecast**: Nornickel expects this year's copper production to be 343,000 tons, lower than the previous estimate. Anglo Asian Mining PLC's Denirli copper mine in the Fuzuli - Karabakh Economic Region has started production, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - **Export Outlook**: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of some refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. SMM expects the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July [2]. 3.3 Macro - economic Situation The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. The import tariff has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate in US consumer prices in June. However, the US RPP annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The expectation of Powell's early departure and Fed rate cuts has increased, raising the probability of rate cuts in September or December [3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - **Upstream**: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The export (import, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at ports in the world (China) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in July may change (decrease, increase). Some smelters have production issues, while others are starting new projects or expanding production, which may lead to an increase in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper and electrolytic copper in July. The import window for electrolytic copper is closed, and the inventory in China's bonded area remains flat, while the social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has increased [5]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has increased compared to last week. The overall demand is still weak, but the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries has increased. However, due to factors such as the Sino - US tariff issue and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline (decrease, decrease, decrease, increase). The domestic electrolytic copper holders are actively supporting prices, and the supply of deliverable trading brands is tight, while the price of non - standard trading brands is low [5].
有色金属涨幅领跑市场!年内白银大涨30%,多家机构上调目标价
天天基金网· 2025-07-18 06:20
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver, with various institutions raising their price forecasts due to increased investment demand and tightening physical supply [2][4][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 57% this year, while silver has risen by 30%, both reaching multi-year highs [2][4]. - The performance of palladium and copper has also been notable, with increases of over 36% and 36% respectively, while gold has risen by 26% [2]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has been strong, with a 19.54% increase, ranking first among 31 sectors [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Trends - There has been a surge in sales of silver products, such as silver bars and coins, alongside a continuous increase in silver ETF shares [3]. - Citigroup has raised its price targets for platinum and silver, predicting silver could exceed $40 per ounce in the coming months due to tightening supply and rising investment demand [4]. - The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical tensions and economic downturns could further boost gold prices by 10% to 15% [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other sectors, with all sub-industries showing positive growth [6]. - The precious metals sector has led the market, with specific ETFs linked to precious metals showing significant year-to-date gains [6]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of investment demand in driving silver prices, indicating a strong correlation between investment demand and price movements [5]. Group 4: Strategic Metals and Policy Risks - The article discusses the political and policy risk premiums associated with trading strategic metals, highlighting the need for a long-term view on supply chains and national security [7].
有色金属涨幅领跑市场!年内白银大涨30%,多家机构上调目标价
券商中国· 2025-07-18 01:59
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant price increases in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver, with a strong performance across nearly all non-ferrous metals, driven by investment demand and market conditions [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 57% this year, while silver has risen by 30%, reaching a 14-year high [2][4]. - Investment in silver products, such as silver bars and coins, has surged, leading to a continuous increase in silver ETF shares [3][4]. - Citigroup has raised its price forecasts for silver and platinum, projecting silver to reach $40 per ounce in the next three months and $43 in the next 6-12 months [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries, with a year-to-date increase of 19.54%, leading all 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification [3][6]. - The demand for silver is primarily driven by investment, which has a positive correlation with silver prices, indicating a significant "amplifying" effect during a silver bull market [5]. - The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical tensions and economic downturns could further increase demand for gold, potentially raising its price by 10%-15% [4]. Group 3: Broader Non-Ferrous Metals Market - All sub-sectors within the non-ferrous metals industry have experienced price increases, with the precious metals sector leading at a 36.74% rise [6][7]. - The energy metals sector has seen a 12.69% increase, while the industrial metals sector has risen by 16.78% [7]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of considering long-term supply chain and national defense needs in the context of political risk premiums affecting strategic metals [7].
关税战持续 银价的补涨行情有望持续
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-13 23:02
Group 1 - As of July 11, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai silver futures closed at 9040 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase in open interest by 152,238 contracts [1] - During the week of July 7-11, the Shanghai silver futures opened at 8919 yuan/kg, reached a high of 9118 yuan/kg, and a low of 8840 yuan/kg, resulting in a weekly change of 1.38% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials have signaled a dovish stance, with Waller suggesting a potential rate cut in July and Daly emphasizing that tariffs may not impact inflation as much as expected, indicating room for about two rate cuts this year [2] - On July 9, the trading volume for silver futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was 50,874 contracts, a decrease of 9,779 contracts from the previous trading day [2] - On July 10, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a decrease of 23,751 kg in silver warehouse receipts, with a total reduction of 43,634 kg over the past week, representing a decline of 3.25% [2] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Futures believes that after a significant rebound, silver prices will revert to fundamentals under commodity attributes, with global silver supply expected to increase and demand to decrease, narrowing the supply-demand gap to a four-year low [3] - Jinyuan Futures notes that despite Trump's tariffs boosting demand for safe-haven assets, a strong US dollar limits gold price increases, while high copper tariffs are positively impacting silver prices [3] - The current market's reduced sensitivity to tariffs and rising risk assets have diminished gold's attractiveness, while silver's strong performance is attributed to its low price and demand for a rebound [3]
投资策略周报:“平准基金”成A股稳定器,三主线望走牛-20250713
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-13 11:01
Market Review - The domestic market shows a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with rising market risk appetite driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and expectations from important real estate meetings, leading to an increase in stock and commodity markets while the bond market remains under pressure. Major A-share indices saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, led by real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors. The banking index reached a historical high on Thursday but adjusted on Friday [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "stabilizing fund" is seen as a stabilizer for A-shares, with three main lines expected to perform well. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3500 points for the first time this year, with large financials, "anti-involution," and technology themes showing alternating upward trends. The proportion of financing funds and northbound trading funds in the market has significantly increased, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite driven by profit-making effects. Unlike the previous "924" rally, the current A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains will require volume support, and short-term market consolidation may be needed. However, the policy support for capital markets remains strong, and the influx of medium- to long-term funds like the "stabilizing fund" suggests limited downside even if the market experiences pullbacks, presenting numerous structural opportunities in a "stable yet rising" environment [2][3]. Industry Allocation - Focus on three main lines for industry allocation: 1) In a low-interest-rate environment, stable dividend assets will continue to be an important direction for medium- to long-term fund allocation 2) Beneficiaries of price increases in related resource sectors, such as minor metals and industrial metals 3) New technology and growth sectors, including military industry, marine economy, AI computing power, and solid-state batteries [2][3].
【期货热点追踪】伦铜六个交易日首次上涨,跟随美铜走高,乐观预期能持续吗?智利铜出口或将陷入困境?
news flash· 2025-07-10 23:46
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that copper prices have risen for the first time in six trading days, following the upward trend of U.S. copper prices, raising questions about the sustainability of this optimism [1] - There are concerns regarding potential challenges in Chile's copper exports, which may impact the overall copper market [1]
50%铜关税:历史新高+史上最大单日涨幅后会发生什么?
对冲研投· 2025-07-09 12:54
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of President Trump's announcement to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, which has led to a significant spike in copper prices and trading volumes, indicating a major shift in the copper market dynamics [3][7]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - Trump's decision to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports caused copper prices to soar to historical highs, marking the largest single-day increase ever recorded [3]. - The trading volume on the COMEX during the announcement window was 54% higher than any period since Trump's election, with the Sep/Dec price spread trading at three times its historical high [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. is a major copper importer, with 2024 imports expected to account for approximately 53% of total demand, while domestic production is around 850,000 tons, with imports exceeding 1.4 million tons [7]. - The tariff announcement came earlier than market expectations, as the investigation under Section 232 could have extended until late November [9]. Group 3: Inventory and Price Mechanism - Despite the tariff, U.S. copper inventories have accumulated significantly, leading to a supply surplus that may mitigate immediate price impacts [12]. - The COMEX price reflects the total cost of importing copper into the U.S., and the current supply situation suggests that short-term import shocks can be absorbed [11]. Group 4: Future Market Implications - The timing of the tariff's implementation is crucial; if enacted within three weeks, it may not significantly pressure overseas markets due to existing shipments [20]. - The potential for exemptions on certain copper products, such as scrap copper, remains uncertain, which could affect market structure and pricing [16]. Group 5: Long-term Considerations - Once the tariff is in effect, additional buying may decrease, and U.S. import levels could drop below normal as existing inventories are prioritized for use [17]. - The preemptive stockpiling of copper suggests that the market's reaction to the tariff may be delayed until domestic inventories are significantly reduced [20][21].
【期货热点追踪】特朗普宣布50%铜进口税,美铜创新高,伦铜、沪铜为何不涨反跌?
news flash· 2025-07-09 12:48
Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% import tax on copper by Trump has led to a surge in U.S. copper prices, reaching new highs, while London and Shanghai copper prices have experienced declines, raising questions about market dynamics and reactions to trade policies [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. copper prices have hit record highs following the import tax announcement, indicating strong domestic demand and potential supply constraints [1] - In contrast, London copper prices have decreased, suggesting that international markets may be reacting differently to the U.S. policy changes [1] - Shanghai copper prices also fell, which may reflect concerns over domestic economic conditions or shifts in demand [1] Group 2: Implications for the Industry - The 50% import tax could lead to increased production costs for manufacturers relying on imported copper, potentially impacting profit margins [1] - The divergence in price movements between U.S. and international markets may create opportunities for traders to capitalize on price discrepancies [1] - Long-term implications for the copper industry could include shifts in sourcing strategies and potential investments in domestic production capabilities [1]