以下为研究报告摘要： 2025Q2美国页岩油资本开支及产量指引变化 暨4月份关税政策影响油价后，美国页岩油公司在Q1季报中均纷纷下调全年的资本开支 及产量指引，Q2大体延续Q1时给的全年指引。 现金流下降，倾斜配置维持股东回报 天风证券近日发布石油石化行业专题研究：根据RBN统计的39家页岩油气公司桶油税前 利润测算历年盈亏平衡成本，拉长周期看，盈亏平衡成本有所提升，2025Q2E&P公司盈亏 平衡成本54.5美金/boe。油价疲软开始影响油公司的利润和现金流，公司注重资本开支的效 率、还债，公司在这些方面的现金流流出明显得到改善，使得公司能够维持历史上较高的股 息和股票回购计划。 意味着之前我们分析的美国页岩油产量增长的驱动因子减少一项——收并购协同效应带 来的产量超预期，同时页岩油公司还削减了资本开支，仅依赖于效率的提升（除非AI带来 超预期的技术提升），我们预计美国页岩油产量实现增长可能较为困难。若WTI维持在60美 金/桶，页岩油产量可能略有下降，但若低于60美金/桶，页岩油产量可能出现明显下降。 盈亏平衡成本测算 根据RBN统计的39家页岩油气公司桶油税前利润测算历年盈亏平衡成本，拉长周期看， 盈亏 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the company's self-owned copper production decreased by 21.0% year-on-year to 176,000 tons, while cobalt production increased by 1.1% to 9,400 tons [1][3] - The company reported a significant increase in zinc production, which rose by 18.9% year-on-year to 251,600 tons, and a decrease in lead and nickel production [1][2] - The first half of 2025 saw a 26% decrease in copper production compared to the first half of 2024, attributed to mining sequencing and lower ore grades [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Q2 2025 Production Overview - Self-owned copper production: 176,000 tons, down 21.0% year-on-year, up 4.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned cobalt production: 9,400 tons, up 1.1% year-on-year, down 1.1% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned zinc production: 251,600 tons, up 18.9% year-on-year, up 17.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned lead production: 41,000 tons, down 7.0% year-on-year, down 17.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned nickel production: 17,800 tons, down 12.7% year-on-year, down 5.3% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned gold production: 301,000 ounces (9.36 tons), down 18% year-on-year - Self-owned silver production: 9,097,000 ounces (282.95 tons), down 0.2% year-on-year [1][2][3] H1 2025 Production Overview - Self-owned copper production: 343,900 tons, down 26% year-on-year - Self-owned cobalt production: 18,900 tons, up 19% year-on-year - Self-owned zinc production: 465,200 tons, up 12% year-on-year - Self-owned lead production: 90,900 tons, up 3% year-on-year - Self-owned nickel production: 36,600 tons, down 7% year-on-year - Self-owned gold production: 301,000 ounces (9.36 tons), down 18% year-on-year - Self-owned silver production: 9,097,000 ounces (282.95 tons), down 0.2% year-on-year [3][7][8] 2025 Production Guidance - Updated production guidance reflects a tightening of ranges, considering year-to-date performance and expected full-year results [11][13]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [10] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, copper production decreased by 11% year-on-year to 173,000 tons, primarily due to reduced output in Chile, despite an increase in Peru [2] - The average realized price for copper in H1 2025 was $4.36 per pound, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year [3] - Iron ore production in Q2 2025 was 15.9 million tons, up 2% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from Minas-Rio [4] - The average realized price for iron ore in H1 2025 was $89 per wet ton, down 4% year-on-year [5] - Manganese ore production surged by 109% year-on-year to 746,000 tons in Q2 2025, recovering from previous disruptions [6] - Platinum Group Metals (PGM) production fell by 47% year-on-year to 492,000 ounces, impacted by reduced procurement and operational disruptions [7] - The average realized price for PGM in H1 2025 was $1,506 per ounce, a 4% increase year-on-year [7] - Coking coal production dropped by 51% year-on-year to 2.1 million tons in Q2 2025, primarily due to mine closures [8] - The average realized price for HCC coking coal in H1 2025 was $172 per ton, down 37% year-on-year [8] - Nickel production decreased by 5% year-on-year to 9,500 tons in Q2 2025, with an average realized price of $6.28 per pound, down 8% year-on-year [12][13] - Diamond production fell by 36% year-on-year to 4.1 million carats in Q2 2025, with an average realized price of $155 per carat, down 5% year-on-year [13][14] Production Guidance - The copper production guidance for 2025 remains unchanged at 690,000 to 750,000 tons, with unit costs expected to be approximately 151 cents per pound [15][26] - Iron ore production guidance for 2025 is maintained at 57 to 61 million tons, with unit costs around $36 per ton [16][26] - Diamond production guidance for 2025 is unchanged at 20 to 23 million carats, with unit costs around $94 per carat [17][18] - Coking coal production guidance remains at 10 to 12 million tons, with unit costs under review due to temporary mine closures [19][26] - Nickel production guidance for 2025 is unchanged at 37,000 to 39,000 tons, with unit costs around 505 cents per pound [21][22]