Group 1 - The main contract for aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a new high since November 2024, closing at 20,900 yuan per ton, up 0.75% [1] - The analyst from a futures company stated that the aluminum fundamentals are the strongest among base metals, supported by a limited smelting capacity of 45 million tons and rising alumina prices [1] - As of July 18, the total aluminum inventory monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,822 tons, the lowest since February 2024, despite a rebound over three consecutive weeks [1] Group 2 - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global lead market surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared to a shortage of 6,000 tons in April [1] - In the first five months of 2025, the global lead market had a surplus of 23,000 tons, down from a surplus of 68,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - The global zinc market faced a shortage of 43,900 tons in May 2025, contrasting with a surplus of 17,300 tons in April [1] Group 3 - LME copper inventory increased by 2,775 tons or 2.27%, reaching 124,850 tons, with the largest change occurring in the Guangyang warehouse, which added 1,500 tons [2] - LME three-month zinc rose by 0.14% to $2,842.5 per ton, while three-month tin increased by 0.1% to $33,845 per ton [2] - Three-month copper saw a slight increase of 0.07% to $9,866.5 per ton, while three-month lead and nickel experienced declines of 0.55% and 0.18%, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached a three-month high due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, which increased the premium of U.S. copper over LME copper, despite a moderate inflow of LME copper stocks alleviating tightness in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market - On July 2, LME three-month copper rose by $79, or 0.8%, closing at $10,013 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,020.5, the highest level since March 26 [1][2]. - The premium of U.S. Comex copper over LME copper is 14%, as market expectations suggest that the investigation into potential U.S. copper import tariffs will take longer, while the White House focuses on "reciprocal" tariff negotiations [3][4]. - Alastair Munro from Marex stated that U.S. copper is the real leader in the market, with LME spot copper contracts trading at a premium of $85 per ton over three-month copper, down from $320 per ton last week, the highest level since November 2021 [4]. Group 2: Other Metals Market - LME three-month aluminum increased by $21.5, or 0.83%, closing at $2,620.0 per ton [5]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $43.5, or 1.6%, closing at $2,757.5 per ton [6]. - LME three-month lead increased by $21.5, or 1.05%, closing at $2,059.5 per ton [7]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $96, or 0.63%, closing at $15,302.0 per ton [8]. - LME three-month tin increased by $53, or 0.16%, closing at $33,714.0 per ton [9].

Group 1 - LME copper prices surged to a nearly three-month high, driven by a weak dollar, supply concerns, and speculative buying after key technical levels were breached [1][3] - As of June 26, LME three-month copper rose by $187, or 1.93%, closing at $9,899.5 per ton, marking the strongest level since March 27 [1][2] - The premium of LME spot copper contracts over three-month copper rebounded to $310 per ton, the highest since November 2021 [4] Group 2 - The dollar index fell to its lowest level since early 2022, weakening confidence in the robustness of U.S. monetary policy, which supports commodity prices [3] - Active buying in the Chinese copper market was noted, with Shanghai Futures Exchange copper contracts rising by 0.6% to 79,000 yuan (approximately $11,022.74), the highest since June 11 [6] - LME copper has increased by 22% since hitting a low of $8,105 per ton in April 2023 [6] Group 3 - Other base metals also saw price increases, with LME three-month zinc rising by $63.5, or 2.35%, to $2,768.0 per ton, and three-month tin increasing by $556, or 1.68%, to $33,749.0 per ton [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a sell-off in risk assets, resulting in a stronger US dollar and a decline in most base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 13, LME three-month copper fell by $57 or 0.59%, closing at $9,645 per ton, with an intraday low of $9,532, marking the weakest level since June 3 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down $14.50 or 0.58% to $2,503.00, three-month zinc down $19.50 or 0.74% to $2,623.00, and three-month lead down $6.00 or 0.30% to $1,990.50 [2][6]. - The COMEX copper premium over LME copper reached $976 per ton [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - The strong US dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies, contributing to the market's risk reduction in copper and aluminum [3]. - Alastair Munro from Marex noted that the current events have diminished the likelihood of prices moving upward, suggesting that price declines may attract bargain hunters [3][5]. - The majority of selling pressure is attributed to commodity trading advisors (CTA) investment funds [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand Insights - In contrast to the LME, Shanghai aluminum has seen a third consecutive day of gains, closing at 20,440 yuan per ton, up 0.49%, supported by declining inventories [7]. - As of the week ending June 13, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventories fell to 110,001 tons, the lowest since February 2024, having decreased by 54% since late March [7].