业内人士表示，美伊地缘博弈、美国关税政策裁定等事件影响贵金属与原油价格走势，白银库存紧张等 基本面因素也为其上涨提供支撑。展望后市，受供应端不确定性、需求季节性波动及宏观环境扰动等影 响，大宗商品价格波动大概率加剧，贵金属与原油仍将是市场波动的核心品种，需重点关注相关风险。 贵金属板块表现亮眼 据正信期货统计，马年春节假期期间（北京时间2月13日15时至2月23日15时，下同），贵金属板块表现 亮眼。其中，COMEX白银期货累计涨超11%，涨幅位居全球主要大宗商品首位；COMEX黄金期货累 计涨超3%，延续此前的上涨趋势。 来源：中国证券报 马年春节假期期间，全球大宗商品市场走势分化，整体呈现贵金属领涨、能源板块强势的特征，其中纽 约商品交易所（COMEX）白银期货、黄金期货及布伦特原油期货、WTI原油期货涨幅显著，成为市场 关注的焦点，工业金属等其他品类则表现分化。 国际原油市场也在春节假期期间迎来强势反弹，布伦特原油期货与美国WTI原油期货双双大幅上涨。 据正信期货统计，春节假期期间，布伦特原油期货累计涨超5%；美国WTI原油期货累计涨幅超4%。 南华期货表示，短期国际原油市场定价的核心依然在中东地缘风险 ...

业内人士表示，美伊地缘博弈、美国关税政策裁定等事件影响贵金属与原油价格走势，白银库存紧张等 基本面因素也为其上涨提供支撑。展望后市，受供应端不确定性、需求季节性波动及宏观环境扰动等影 响，大宗商品价格波动大概率加剧，贵金属与原油仍将是市场波动的核心品种，需重点关注相关风险。 贵金属板块表现亮眼 据正信期货统计，马年春节假期期间（北京时间2月13日15时至2月23日15时，下同），贵金属板块表现 亮眼。其中，COMEX白银期货累计涨超11%，涨幅位居全球主要大宗商品首位；COMEX黄金期货累 计涨超3%，延续此前的上涨趋势。 ● 本报记者 马爽 马年春节假期期间，全球大宗商品市场走势分化，整体呈现贵金属领涨、能源板块强势的特征，其中纽 约商品交易所（COMEX）白银期货、黄金期货及布伦特原油期货、WTI原油期货涨幅显著，成为市场 关注的焦点，工业金属等其他品类则表现分化。 一德期货贵金属分析师张晨表示，春节假期期间，"美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违 法"的消息，成为影响贵金属价格走势的最重磅事件。一方面，若部分关税取消，美国通胀问题缓解的 概率将上升。通胀预期下行叠加市场风险偏好抬升，将推动名义利率 ...

2月16日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜走弱，因美元走强，且焦点转向库存增加，以及假期 清淡交易期间疲软的需求前景。 伦敦时间2月16日17:00(北京时间2月17日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌30.5美元，或0.24%，收报每吨 12,850.5美元。 | | 2月16日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张默帽 | | 三个月期铜 | 12,850.50 - | -30.50 -0.24% | | 三个月期铝 | 3.052.50 | -25.00 -0.81% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,290.00 ↓ | -47.50 -1.42% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,958.00 | -2.00 -0.10% | | 三个月期镇 | 17.115.00 ↑ +131.00 ↑ +0.77% | | | 三个月期锡 | 45,681.00 -1,021.00 ↓ -2.19% | | **周一适逢中美假期，市况清淡** 贸易商表示，本周正值中国春节假期，且周一为美国公众假期，这意味着市场交易量偏低；而伦敦金属 交 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell to a one-week low but recovered some losses, with tariff reduction prospects increasing pricing uncertainty [1][3]. Group 1: Aluminum Market - On February 13, LME three-month aluminum dropped by $22.5, or 0.73%, closing at $3,077.5 per ton, reaching its lowest level since February 6 [1][2]. - The prospect of the U.S. reducing aluminum tariffs has added uncertainty to trade flows and pricing, with U.S. buyers' prices dropping 6.8% to 93 cents per pound [3]. - Analysts indicate that the main market impact comes from primary aluminum tariffs, and any tariff reductions on derivative products will not affect LME aluminum prices unless they extend to primary metals [3]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Other industrial metals experienced declines due to profit-taking and risk aversion, with LME three-month copper rising slightly by $5.5, or 0.04%, to $12,881.0 per ton, moving away from its record high of $14,527.50 set on January 29 [4]. - LME three-month zinc fell by $36.5, or 1.08%, closing at $3,337.5 per ton [5]. - LME three-month lead decreased by $17.5, or 0.88%, to $1,960.0 per ton, while nickel dropped by $444, or 2.55%, to $16,984.0 per ton [6]. - LME three-month tin saw a significant drop of $2,961, or 5.96%, closing at $46,702.0 per ton [7]. Group 3: Supply and Export Regulations - Indonesia is considering a plan to ban the export of various raw materials, including tin, in the coming years [8]. - The country has already banned the export of several raw ores, including nickel ore, bauxite, and copper concentrate, to attract domestic processing industry investment and promote high-value product exports [9].

Group 1 - LME copper prices have declined by 0.62% to $13,095 per ton, while Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract rose by 0.09% to 101,600 yuan per ton [1] - The increase in inventories and weak demand continue to pressure copper prices, with LME copper stocks rising to 184,300 tons from 137,225 tons on January 10 [1] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, starting February 15, is expected to further impact demand as buyers complete pre-holiday restocking [1] Group 2 - Yangshan copper premium has increased from $20 per ton to $38 per ton, but remains low compared to over $50 per ton at the end of December, indicating weak demand [2] - Other base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed performance, with tin rising by 3.42% and aluminum, zinc, and nickel declining [2] - LME's three-month tin prices remained stable, while aluminum, zinc, and nickel prices decreased by 0.72%, 0.34%, and 1% respectively, with lead prices increasing by 0.20% [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold and silver prices have experienced a significant decline, leading to a drop in base metal prices as well [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are falling sharply, indicating a bearish trend in the precious metals market [1] Group 2: Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum prices decreased by 4% to $3,093.50 per ton [1] - Three-month nickel prices also fell by 4%, reaching $17,726.00 per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices declined due to a stronger US dollar, but supply concerns and speculative interest limited the drop in prices [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market Analysis - On January 13, LME three-month copper fell by $45.5, or 0.34%, closing at $13,164.0 per ton [1][2]. - Over the past 12 months, LME copper has surged by 45%, reaching a record high of $13,387.50 last week [5]. - Concerns about supply disruptions in copper mining and expectations of a supply shortage this year have contributed to the price increase [5]. - The premium for LME spot copper over the three-month contract rose to $64 per ton, the highest in a month, compared to just $3 a week prior [5]. Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $13, or 0.41%, closing at $3,197.5 per ton [6]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $14.5, or 0.45%, closing at $3,201.5 per ton [7]. - LME three-month lead rose by $8.5, or 0.41%, closing at $2,061.5 per ton [8]. - LME three-month nickel fell by $207, or 1.16%, closing at $17,681.0 per ton [9]. - LME three-month tin increased by $1,561, or 3.25%, closing at $49,528.0 per ton [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index strengthened, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4]. - The US Consumer Price Index for December rose by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with economists' expectations and significantly above the Federal Reserve's target [3][5]. - The National Mining Association of Chile (Sonami) projected that Chile's copper production will range between 5.5 to 5.7 million tons by 2026, up from last year's estimate of 5.4 million tons [5].

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices surged at the beginning of the year due to supply concerns stemming from a strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile, with SHFE copper closing up 2.68% at 101,350 yuan per ton and LME copper rising 2.75% to $12,813 per ton [1] - The strike, resulting from failed negotiations over a new labor contract, has intensified supply worries for 2026, contributing to a historical high in copper prices over the past year [1] Group 2: Other Metals - Aluminum opened the year strongly, with SHFE aluminum closing up 3.98% at 23,645 yuan per ton and LME aluminum increasing by 1.28% to $3,054 per ton [3][4] - Tin prices also saw significant gains, with SHFE tin rising 2.45% to 334,370 yuan per ton and LME tin up 3.42% to $41,790 per ton [5] - Zinc and lead prices increased as well, with SHFE zinc up 2.25% to 23,820 yuan per ton and SHFE lead rising 0.67% to 17,395 yuan per ton [5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices experienced a slight decline but are expected to record the largest annual gain since 2009 in 2025, driven by supply concerns and demand growth from AI and energy sectors [1] - Year-to-date, copper prices have surged over 42% due to uncertainties surrounding US tariffs and production disruptions at mines [1] - Three-month copper futures fell by 0.49% to $12,497 per ton, while the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 0.84% to 98,240 yuan per ton, with a cumulative increase of 33.27% this year [1] Group 2 - COMEX copper inventories have reached a historical high of 490,722 tons, increasing by 426.75% year-to-date, while LME copper inventories have decreased by 44.91% to 149,475 tons [2] - Tin is projected to have the second-largest annual gain among base metals, with three-month tin futures down 1.67% but expected to record a 42% annual increase [2] Group 3 - Aluminum is identified as a winner among base metals this year, with LME three-month aluminum rising by 0.44% and expected to achieve over a 17% annual gain [3] - Nickel prices are anticipated to record an annual gain for the first time since 2023, with three-month nickel futures down 1.35% but projected to have over an 8% annual increase [3] Group 4 - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month zinc down 0.24% and three-month lead up 0.22% [4]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a historical high of $12,960 per ton before retreating, with a current increase of 3.27% to $12,560 per ton [1] - Shanghai copper futures for February rose by 0.76% to ¥98,860 per ton, after hitting a record high of ¥102,660 per ton last Friday [1] - Analysts indicate that profit-taking by investors and a decrease in market risk appetite are contributing to the current price adjustments [1] Group 2 - Shanghai copper saw an approximate 6% increase last week, while London copper prices rose by 1.93% [2] - The market is anticipating the release of the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes, which may influence future interest rate decisions [2] - Technical analysts predict LME copper may retreat to the range of $12,344 to $12,544 per ton this week, facing strong resistance around $12,869 per ton [2]