11月21日（周五），伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜下滑，预计本周将录得跌幅，因强势美元及喜忧参半的 9月就业数据令投资者在美联储12月利率决议前保持谨慎。 LME三个月期铝下跌0.94%，至每吨2,787.50美元；期锌下跌1.33%，至每吨2,976美元；期铅下跌 1.07%，至每吨1,989美元；期锡下跌0.79%，至每吨36,775美元；期镍下跌0.94%，至每吨14,365美元。 沪铝主力合约下滑1.09%，收报每吨21,340元；沪铅合约下跌0.46%，收报每吨17,165元；沪锌下跌 0.09%，收报每吨22,395元；沪镍下跌1.75%，收报每吨114,050元；沪锡下跌0.93%，收报每吨290,740 元。 （文华综合） 周四因美国政府停摆而推迟公布的9月就业数据向美联储发出了好坏参半的信号，决策者正在考虑12月 份的利率决定，该数据显示新增就业岗位增长强于预期，但失业率升至近四年来的新高。 9月就业数据将是12月利率决议前发布的最后一次官方就业数据。 由于许多美联储官员仍持鹰派态度，美元依然强劲，这对以美元计价的大宗商品造成了压力，使持有其 他货币的投资者认为这些商品更加昂贵。 截至北京时 ...

Group 1 - The three-month copper futures on the LME reached a record high of $11,146 per ton, closing at $11,094.5 per ton [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve, which is influencing market sentiment [3] - Easing trade tensions have improved investor expectations regarding future demand for copper [3] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" has been jointly compiled by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network and copper industry enterprises [3]

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - LME copper prices rose by 1% to $10,761.00 per ton, approaching a 16-month high due to concerns over mining production disruptions outweighing the impact of a stronger dollar [1][2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 22%, driven by production interruptions in major copper mines in Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia [2][3] - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, one of the largest globally, has been suspended for nearly a month following a landslide that resulted in seven fatalities [2][3] Group 2: Price Forecasts and Market Sentiment - Citigroup raised its target price for LME three-month copper from $10,500 to $11,000 per ton, anticipating that economic growth recovery in 2026 could push prices to $12,000 per ton [3] - Dan Smith from Commodity Market Analytics noted that LME copper is nearing a critical resistance zone between $10,750 and just below $11,000, which has previously been a barrier in May 2021, March 2022, and May 2024 [3] Group 3: Chilean Copper Exports and Global Nickel Market - Chile's copper exports in September amounted to $4.39 billion, a decrease of 2.03% compared to the same month last year [4] - Sumitomo Metal Mining forecasts a continued surplus in the global nickel market for the third consecutive year, with a projected surplus of 256,000 tons in 2026, slightly down from 263,000 tons in 2025 [5] - The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) expects global nickel demand to rise to 3.82 million tons in 2026, up from 3.6 million tons in 2025, while production is anticipated to increase to 4.09 million tons [6][7]

Group 1 - LME three-month copper reached $10,460.50 per ton, the highest level since May 2024, driven by concerns over tightening supply [1] - Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for global copper mine supply in 2025 and 2026 [1] - The interruption at Grasberg, the world's second-largest copper mine in Indonesia, forced operator Freeport-McMoRan to declare force majeure [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a 15-month high, driven by a decline in the US dollar and a framework agreement between China and the US regarding TikTok-related issues [1][4] - On September 15, LME three-month copper rose by $119, or 1.18%, closing at $10,186.5 per ton, with an intraday peak of $10,192.50, the highest since June 4 of the previous year [1][5] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 16%, but has struggled to maintain significant gains after surpassing the $10,000 mark [5] Group 2 - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up by $11, or 0.41%, closing at $2,700.5 per ton [2][7] - Three-month zinc rose by $22, or 0.74%, closing at $2,979.0 per ton [2][8] - Conversely, three-month lead fell by $15.5, or 0.77%, closing at $2,002.0 per ton, while three-month tin decreased by $336, or 0.96%, closing at $34,639.0 per ton [2][9][11] Group 3 - The decline in the US dollar index is noted, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, expected to hold meetings this week, with a rate cut anticipated [6]

Group 1 - The main contract for aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a new high since November 2024, closing at 20,900 yuan per ton, up 0.75% [1] - The analyst from a futures company stated that the aluminum fundamentals are the strongest among base metals, supported by a limited smelting capacity of 45 million tons and rising alumina prices [1] - As of July 18, the total aluminum inventory monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 108,822 tons, the lowest since February 2024, despite a rebound over three consecutive weeks [1] Group 2 - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global lead market surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared to a shortage of 6,000 tons in April [1] - In the first five months of 2025, the global lead market had a surplus of 23,000 tons, down from a surplus of 68,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - The global zinc market faced a shortage of 43,900 tons in May 2025, contrasting with a surplus of 17,300 tons in April [1] Group 3 - LME copper inventory increased by 2,775 tons or 2.27%, reaching 124,850 tons, with the largest change occurring in the Guangyang warehouse, which added 1,500 tons [2] - LME three-month zinc rose by 0.14% to $2,842.5 per ton, while three-month tin increased by 0.1% to $33,845 per ton [2] - Three-month copper saw a slight increase of 0.07% to $9,866.5 per ton, while three-month lead and nickel experienced declines of 0.55% and 0.18%, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached a three-month high due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, which increased the premium of U.S. copper over LME copper, despite a moderate inflow of LME copper stocks alleviating tightness in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market - On July 2, LME three-month copper rose by $79, or 0.8%, closing at $10,013 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,020.5, the highest level since March 26 [1][2]. - The premium of U.S. Comex copper over LME copper is 14%, as market expectations suggest that the investigation into potential U.S. copper import tariffs will take longer, while the White House focuses on "reciprocal" tariff negotiations [3][4]. - Alastair Munro from Marex stated that U.S. copper is the real leader in the market, with LME spot copper contracts trading at a premium of $85 per ton over three-month copper, down from $320 per ton last week, the highest level since November 2021 [4]. Group 2: Other Metals Market - LME three-month aluminum increased by $21.5, or 0.83%, closing at $2,620.0 per ton [5]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $43.5, or 1.6%, closing at $2,757.5 per ton [6]. - LME three-month lead increased by $21.5, or 1.05%, closing at $2,059.5 per ton [7]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $96, or 0.63%, closing at $15,302.0 per ton [8]. - LME three-month tin increased by $53, or 0.16%, closing at $33,714.0 per ton [9].

Group 1 - LME copper prices surged to a nearly three-month high, driven by a weak dollar, supply concerns, and speculative buying after key technical levels were breached [1][3] - As of June 26, LME three-month copper rose by $187, or 1.93%, closing at $9,899.5 per ton, marking the strongest level since March 27 [1][2] - The premium of LME spot copper contracts over three-month copper rebounded to $310 per ton, the highest since November 2021 [4] Group 2 - The dollar index fell to its lowest level since early 2022, weakening confidence in the robustness of U.S. monetary policy, which supports commodity prices [3] - Active buying in the Chinese copper market was noted, with Shanghai Futures Exchange copper contracts rising by 0.6% to 79,000 yuan (approximately $11,022.74), the highest since June 11 [6] - LME copper has increased by 22% since hitting a low of $8,105 per ton in April 2023 [6] Group 3 - Other base metals also saw price increases, with LME three-month zinc rising by $63.5, or 2.35%, to $2,768.0 per ton, and three-month tin increasing by $556, or 1.68%, to $33,749.0 per ton [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - LME three-month copper prices have risen to $9,832 per ton, marking the highest level since March 28 [1] Group 1 - The increase in copper prices indicates a strong demand in the market [1] - The current price reflects a significant upward trend in the copper market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a sell-off in risk assets, resulting in a stronger US dollar and a decline in most base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 13, LME three-month copper fell by $57 or 0.59%, closing at $9,645 per ton, with an intraday low of $9,532, marking the weakest level since June 3 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down $14.50 or 0.58% to $2,503.00, three-month zinc down $19.50 or 0.74% to $2,623.00, and three-month lead down $6.00 or 0.30% to $1,990.50 [2][6]. - The COMEX copper premium over LME copper reached $976 per ton [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - The strong US dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies, contributing to the market's risk reduction in copper and aluminum [3]. - Alastair Munro from Marex noted that the current events have diminished the likelihood of prices moving upward, suggesting that price declines may attract bargain hunters [3][5]. - The majority of selling pressure is attributed to commodity trading advisors (CTA) investment funds [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand Insights - In contrast to the LME, Shanghai aluminum has seen a third consecutive day of gains, closing at 20,440 yuan per ton, up 0.49%, supported by declining inventories [7]. - As of the week ending June 13, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventories fell to 110,001 tons, the lowest since February 2024, having decreased by 54% since late March [7].