证券研究报告 基础材料 锂：近端强现实，远期依旧看好上涨 锂行业：近端强现实，远期需求分歧依旧较大 今年 9 月以来，碳酸锂价格持续走强，期货主力合约价格一度突破 10 万元 /吨，价格上涨主要可归因为供给端江西枧下窝矿山在 8 月停产以及需求端 下游电池需求呈现明显淡季不淡，供给扰动与需求高增速共振下，国内库存 持续去化。与此同时，国内储能招标维持高增速，导致市场对于 26 年全球 储能出货预期大幅抬升。强现实+强需求预期推升碳酸锂价格在三季度以来 持续上涨。站在当前节点展望后市，市场对具体 26/27 年需求增速预期尤其 储能的增速上呈明显分歧，该分歧直接导致市场对于碳酸锂未来的长期供需 测算结果方差较大。本文将对不同终端增速预期下的碳酸锂需求以及不同价 格下的供给进行测算，以分析未来锂价的合理中枢。 供给：预计锂资源 26 年/27 年产量增速为 32.3%/17.1% 根据我们测算，2026 年全球锂资源供应增量将主要来自国内盐湖新项目投 产、非洲矿与澳矿的放量，以及南美盐湖产能的爬产。中性预期下，我们预 测 2025 年至 2027 年全球锂资源供给量预计分别为 163.4 万吨、216.2 万 吨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the optimistic outlook for the lithium industry, particularly regarding supply-demand dynamics and price forecasts for 2026 [1][12][19] - The lithium mining sector has seen significant stock price increases, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium expressing bullish sentiments about future lithium prices [1][15] - Predictions indicate that global lithium supply may reach 203,000 tons LCE by 2026, while demand could rise to 214,000 tons LCE, resulting in an 11,000-ton supply gap [17][18] Group 2 - The carbon lithium market has experienced a recovery after a decline, with prices rebounding from a low of 60,000 yuan/ton in June to new highs in November [3][5] - Speculative trading in the futures market has been volatile, with trading volumes fluctuating significantly due to regulatory adjustments by exchanges [5][6][10] - The trading environment has seen a shift, with trend-following funds remaining at historically high levels despite some speculative funds withdrawing [10][12] Group 3 - The lithium industry is characterized by a slow capacity reduction, with companies maintaining production levels and avoiding permanent shutdowns [12][15] - The demand for lithium is expected to be driven by the growth in energy storage and electric vehicle markets, with significant increases in production of energy storage cells reported [23][28] - The potential resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine could introduce supply pressures, depending on market conditions and price levels [27][28]

作者丨董鹏 编辑丨朱益民 11月28日，A股锂矿板块涨幅居前。截至11月收官，电池板块已涌现出多只翻倍股，其中国晟 科技涨 155% ，华盛锂电涨 132% ，海科新源涨 122% 。 因交易所调控，阶段性降温的碳酸锂期货，新、老主力合约LC2605、LC2601亦回升至9.7万 元/吨和9.5万元/吨附近。 锂矿股的反复上涨、碳酸锂期货活跃度的提升，背后是行业供需关系的边际改善，以及业内对 2026年行业景气度提升的乐观预期。 继赣锋锂业董事长李良彬11月中旬明确"看涨"锂价后，天齐锂业董事长蒋安琪也认为2026年全 球锂行业有望达到供需平衡。 更有乐观的期货机构预测，2026年全球锂资源供应增长至203万吨LCE，同期需求则可能升至 214万吨LCE，从而产生11万吨的需求缺口。 当然，以上"锂业双雄"与期货机构的判断，只是站在当前节点、基于已知条件作出的预判，行 业供需如何演变依旧充满了太多的不确定因素。 比如，下半年由储能所引领的需求增长能否持续？后续锂价如何持续上涨、大幅领先宁德时代 枧下窝锂矿成本线后，会否刺激其加快复产？ 投机资金撤离，趋势资金仍在 "2025年碳酸锂的行情 并非简单的V型反转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector in A-shares is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures and optimistic expectations for industry demand and supply balance by 2026 [1][2][19]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures contracts LC2605 and LC2601 have rebounded to approximately 97,000 CNY/ton and 95,000 CNY/ton, respectively, following a period of price decline [1]. - The average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased from a low of 60,000 CNY/ton in late June to a new high in mid-November, driven by factors such as production halts and surging demand from energy storage [2][4]. - The trading volume and speculative activity in the futures market have intensified, with the turnover ratio rising from 1.4 to over 2.2, indicating increased market engagement [6][11]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecasts - Predictions for 2026 suggest a global lithium supply increase to 2.03 million tons LCE, while demand may reach 2.14 million tons LCE, resulting in an 110,000-ton supply gap [2][16][19]. - Major industry players, including Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, express optimism about achieving supply-demand balance by 2026, with potential price surges if demand growth exceeds expectations [14][19]. - The lithium supply chain is expected to remain resilient, with no significant closures or permanent shutdowns of mines anticipated, contributing to a stable supply outlook [13][14]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Reactions - The futures market has seen regulatory adjustments, including increased transaction fees and margin requirements, aimed at cooling speculative trading [4][7][8]. - Following these regulatory changes, speculative funds have begun to withdraw, leading to a temporary cooling in the lithium carbonate futures market [8][10]. - Despite the withdrawal of speculative funds, trend-based investments remain high, indicating continued confidence in the long-term outlook for lithium prices [11][12]. Group 4: Short-term Variables - The ongoing production of energy storage batteries and the potential resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine are critical factors that could influence short-term supply and pricing dynamics [21][24][28]. - Current market sentiment is cautious, with downstream buyers primarily focusing on essential inventory replenishment rather than aggressive purchasing [26][29].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks experienced a surge in the afternoon, with Tianqi Lithium Industries rising by 4.11% and Ganfeng Lithium increasing by 3.21, driven by strong demand in renewable energy and electric vehicles [1] Industry Summary - The chairman of Tianqi Lithium, Jiang Anqi, stated that the demand for lithium materials is continuously increasing due to the rapid growth of electric commercial vehicles and energy storage applications. By 2026, global lithium demand is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, achieving a near balance between supply and demand [1] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, Li Liangbin, predicted a 30% increase in lithium carbonate demand by 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, with supply capacity expected to grow by approximately 250,000 tons. This indicates a balanced supply-demand scenario, with potential upward pressure on lithium carbonate prices [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not be able to keep pace, leading to prices possibly exceeding 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [1]

智通财经APP获悉，锂矿股午后拉升，截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696)涨4.11%，报47.64港元；赣锋锂业 (01772)涨3.21%，报49.56港元。 消息面上，天齐锂业董事长蒋安琪今日在2025年第二届中国国际锂业大会上表示，受益于可再生能源并 网需求、商用重卡等电动化设备增速迅猛，储能领域和动力电池对基础锂材料的需求持续上涨，2026年 全球锂需求量预计将达到200万吨碳酸锂当量，基本达到供需平衡。随着锂行业供需格局的改善，产业 链将破除同质化竞争，企业将迎来更大的发展空间。 值得一提的是，此前赣锋锂业董事长李良彬预测，2026年碳酸锂需求会增长30%，需求达到190万吨， 同时供应能力经过评估后会增长25万吨左右，供需基本平衡，碳酸锂价格有探涨空间。如果明年需求增 速超过30%，甚至达到40%，短期内供应无法平衡，价格可能会突破15万元/吨甚至20万元/吨。 ...