Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices experienced a rapid decline at the end of January and early February, with LME nickel dropping to around 16,500 and Shanghai nickel falling to approximately 130,000, but have since stabilized and recovered more than half of the losses [3][17]. Group 2: Nickel Ore Supply Dynamics - Indonesia is set to reduce nickel ore quotas, with approximately 260-270 million tons approved for mining by 2026, slightly above market expectations but significantly below the 2025 target of 379 million tons [4][18]. - The world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay, is expected to see a substantial reduction in production quotas, with the approved ore production quota for this year at 12 million tons, far below the 42 million tons target for 2025 [4][18]. - Nickel Industries' Hengjaya mine has had its sales quota for 2026 significantly increased from 9 million wet tons to 14.3 million wet tons [4][18]. Group 3: Nickel Iron Production and Pricing - In January, nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia totaled 165,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [7][21]. - The domestic high nickel pig iron price remains stable to slightly strong, with prices around 1,035-1,060 CNY per nickel, while Indonesian nickel pig iron FOB prices are stable at 133 USD per nickel [7][21]. Group 4: Refined Nickel Supply Situation - In January, domestic refined nickel production in China was 35,225 tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year, with high inventories putting pressure on nickel prices [9][23]. - The total nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a new high of 58,775 tons as of February 13, indicating a generally oversupplied market [9][23]. Group 5: Demand Recovery Outlook - In January, domestic production of 300 series stainless steel was 1.8581 million tons, a 6.3% increase month-on-month and an 18.6% increase year-on-year, but February production is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival [11][25]. - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has stabilized after a decline, with a recent price of 32,175 CNY per ton, while the production of downstream precursor plants has not yet resumed [11][25]. Group 6: Summary of Market Conditions - The overall market sentiment for precious metals and non-ferrous metals is warming, which may support a rebound in nickel prices, although a strong dollar may exert some pressure [13][27]. - The geopolitical landscape and the ongoing supply chain disruptions are likely to maintain the strategic value of key raw materials, with short-term nickel ore supply appearing slightly tight [13][27].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown marginal improvement. It is expected that the overall supply and demand in February will still tend to be loose, and the overall visible inventory will remain at a high level, putting pressure on prices. However, the Indonesian government's downward revision of the 2026 nickel ore quota and the proposed revision of the domestic nickel ore pricing method have significantly adjusted the market's expectations of nickel cost and balance, providing some support for nickel prices. [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On February 11, 2026, affected by the news that Indonesia approved a nickel ore quota of about 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, the Shanghai nickel futures price once soared by over 4.4% to 139,940 tons. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) announced the 2026 work plan and cost budget (RKAB), with the approved nickel ore production quota between 2.6 and 2.7 billion tons. Considering that 2026 is a period of concentrated release of new capacity in Indonesia's hydrometallurgical process (HPAL), the theoretical demand for domestic nickel ore in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to be about 15% higher than the currently approved quota, creating a significant tightening expectation in the market. [2] Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel production rebounded again in January, and the overall production of nickel matte and nickel ice in Indonesia remained high in January, so the supply - side pressure still exists. On the demand side, it is still in the traditional consumption off - season. The stainless - steel production in January increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival holiday. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious, and the overall fundamentals remain in a state of surplus. In terms of inventory, according to Wind data, the LME inventory increased by 678 tons to 285,750 tons, and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 318 tons to 52,039 tons, with the global overall visible inventory still at a high level. [3] Summary and Strategy - Currently, the Indonesian policies strongly support nickel prices, but the high visible inventory may limit the upward space to some extent. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously and lightly before the holiday, continue to pay attention to opportunities for buying at low prices in the medium term, and continuously follow the progress of relevant Indonesian policies. [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown marginal improvement. It is expected that the overall supply and demand in February will still be loose, and the overall visible inventory will remain at a high level, which will put some pressure on prices. At the same time, the Indonesian government's reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota and the proposed revision of the domestic nickel ore pricing method have significantly adjusted the market's expectations of nickel cost and balance, providing some support for nickel prices. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons On February 11, 2026, affected by the news that Indonesia approved a nickel ore quota of about 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, the Shanghai nickel price once soared by more than 4.4% to 139,940 tons. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) released the 2026 work plan and cost budget (RKAB), and the Director - General of Minerals and Coal of the ESDM, Tri Winarno, revealed that the approved nickel ore production quota is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons. Considering that 2026 is still a period of concentrated release of new capacity of high - pressure acid leaching (HPAL) in Indonesia, to maintain the reasonable operating rate of existing and under - construction projects, it is expected that the theoretical demand for nickel ore in Indonesia in 2026 will be about 15% higher than the currently approved quota of 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, forming a significant tightening expectation in the market. [2] Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic nickel production increased again in January. At the same time, the production of nickel matte and nickel ice in Indonesia in January remained at a high level overall, and the pressure on the supply side still exists. [3] - **Demand**: It is still in the traditional consumption off - season. The stainless steel production in January increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but it is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival holiday. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious, and the overall fundamentals remain in surplus. [3] - **Inventory**: According to Wind data, the LME inventory increased by 678 tons to 285,750 tons yesterday, and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 318 tons to 52,039 tons. The global overall visible inventory is still at a high level. [3] Summary and Strategy The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved. It is expected that the supply and demand in February will be loose, and the visible inventory will remain high, suppressing prices. The Indonesian policy has strongly supported the nickel price, but the high visible inventory may limit the upward space to some extent. It is recommended to hold positions lightly and cautiously before the festival, and continue to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices in the medium term. Also, continue to pay attention to the progress of relevant Indonesian policies. [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Nickel Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the nickel market, particularly the impact of Indonesia's nickel quota policy and its implications for supply and pricing dynamics in the industry [1][3][10]. Key Points and Arguments Nickel Quota Policy - Indonesia's nickel quota policy is tightening, with a significant reduction to 250 million tons by 2026, leading to an expected supply gap of approximately 80 million tons, which may support a rebound in nickel prices [1][4][10]. - The Indonesian government aims to stabilize nickel prices to increase fiscal revenue, with historical data indicating a price floor around $15,000 per ton [10]. Supply Dynamics - The Philippines is expected to have flexible nickel supply capabilities, potentially compensating for part of the supply gap, but a real shortfall of about 30 to 40 million tons may still exist [1][7]. - Other countries like Australia and New Caledonia can provide additional nickel supply, but only if prices remain above $20,000 per ton [1][8]. Price Trends - Nickel prices are under pressure, with $20,000 per ton identified as a critical resistance level in the short term. Long-term price trends will depend on supply-demand balance, policy changes, and macroeconomic factors [2][12]. - Current global nickel inventory exceeds 300,000 tons, but actual supply-demand balance may reflect a shortfall of 400,000 to 500,000 tons when accounting for grade fluctuations and inventory consumption [9][10]. Market Sentiment - The recent drop in silver prices has negatively impacted the sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector, although long-term demand growth driven by the energy revolution could support recovery [6][12]. - The nickel market has experienced weak price performance over the past year, primarily due to insufficient demand from the energy transition and competition from alternative battery technologies [2][5]. Future Outlook - The nickel price outlook is contingent on supply-demand equilibrium and policy developments. Short-term price support may arise from quota reductions and improved market sentiment, while long-term growth will depend on global economic conditions and the rise of alternative materials [5][12][24]. - The potential for cobalt pricing to be established could elevate nickel's bottom valuation by $500 to $1,000, but the upper price limit may be constrained by supply responses [1][15]. Additional Considerations - The Indonesian government's control over nickel pricing and quotas may face challenges from large enterprises with strong bargaining power, which could influence future policy effectiveness [10][18]. - The impact of high-cost projects outside Indonesia, which require sustained high nickel prices to remain viable, could also affect market dynamics if prices fall [19][21]. Conclusion - The nickel market is navigating a complex landscape shaped by regulatory changes, supply constraints, and evolving demand dynamics. Stakeholders should closely monitor policy developments and macroeconomic indicators to assess future price movements and investment opportunities in the sector [5][12][24].

Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) has seen a price increase of over 6%, with a monthly rise exceeding 30%, currently trading at 2.71 HKD and a transaction volume of 25.9145 million HKD [2] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association reported a significant reduction in the nickel production target for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down from the 2025 target of 379 million tons [2] - CICC indicated that the tightening of nickel ore quotas is unlikely to have a significant negative impact on the Indonesian economy, and the increase in nickel prices could enhance tax revenue and the value of local resources, suggesting a high probability of the quota policy being implemented [2] Group 2 - Guangzhou Futures noted that the Indonesian government is still discussing the quota plan internally, and previous announcements regarding nickel ore quotas have often been retracted, indicating that the impact of this news on nickel prices may be overestimated [2] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining owns several nickel-copper mines, including Karatungke, Huangshandong, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as vanadium mines at Xianghe Street and Mujia River, and a fluorite mine at Kalchaer [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 30% in the month and currently trading at 2.71 HKD, with a trading volume of 25.91 million HKD [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining fully owns four nickel-copper mines: Kalatongke, Huangshandong, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as two vanadium mines: Xianghe Street and Mujia River, and the Karachar fluorite mine [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association reported that the government's nickel production target for the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is approximately 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set for 2025 [1] - CICC indicated that the tightening of nickel mining quotas will have a minimal impact on the Indonesian economy, and rising nickel prices will enhance tax revenue and increase the value of local resources, suggesting a high probability of the quota policy being implemented [1] - Guangzhou Futures noted that the Indonesian government is still discussing the quota plan internally, and past instances of similar quota policy news being disproven suggest that the impact on nickel prices may be overestimated [1]