热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月底2月初，镍价跟随贵金属和有色整体出现快速回调，LME镍最低至16500附近，沪镍则跌至13万附 近，随后便企稳震荡，目前已收复一半以上跌幅。 短期镍矿供应略偏紧 印尼将缩减镍矿配额的消息还在持续发酵，据悉，印尼当前已为2026年批准了约2.6亿-2.7亿镍矿开采配 额，略高于之前市场预估，但远低于2025年目标3.79亿吨。全球最大镍矿韦达湾预计将遭印尼政府大幅 缩减产量配额，今年获批矿石产量配额为1200万吨，远低于2025年的4200万吨，也低于2024年初批复的 基础配额1600万吨；不过，年初配额可在年中调整，最终产量存在弹性。同时，Nickel Industries旗下 Hengjaya矿山已获批2026年镍矿RKAB销售配额，总量由之前的900万湿吨显著提升至1430万湿吨。 据Mysteel，节后菲律宾和印尼镍矿价格稍有分歧，印尼2月下半月HPM基准价已按新HMA调整，各品 位价格小幅下跌约0.2-0.3美元/湿吨，升水暂维持节前水平，目前正值斋月，政府审批及矿山作业效率 放缓，供应难有明显增量；菲律宾方面，矿山持续少量出货 ...

基本面来看，供应端。国内电镜1月产量环比再度回升，同时印尼1月MINP和冰镜产量整体维持高位，整体操供给端压力仍存。需求端仍处传统消费淡季，不锈钢 1月排产环比在利润修复下存在小幅回升，2月因春节假期影响预计排产环比将明显下滑，终端需求仍维持B对谨慎态度，整体基本面过剩维持。库存端末看，据万得 数据，昨日LME库存再度环比累积678吨至285750吨，沪镍仓单环比累积318吨至52039吨，全球整体显性库存仍处高位。 总结及策略 总结束看，银当下基本面未见边际改善，预计2月整体供需仍趋宽松，整体显性库存维持高位，对价格形成一定压制。同时，据我的钢铁网消息，印尼下修26年镍 矿配额、同时拟修订银矿内贺计价方式，使得市场对银成本及平衡预期有较为明显调整，对银价形成一定支撑。策略上，当下印尼端政策对银价形成较强支撑，但显 性库存高位或在一定程度限制向上高度，建议节前谨慎轻仓持有，中期继续关注逢低吸纳机会，后续持续关注印尼相关政策进展。 信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 印尼26年镍矿配额落地、镍价冲高 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 2026年2月11日， ...

信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 印尼26年镍矿配额落地、镍价冲高 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 2026年2月11日，受印尼批准约2.6-2.7亿吨银厂配额消息影响，沪银一度上冲超4.4%至13.994万吨。据我的钢铁网2月11日消息，能源和矿产资源部(ESDM) 发布了2026年镇工作计划租成本预算(RKAB)，ESDM部矿产和煤炭总干事Tri Winarno透露。 批准的银矿生产配额在2.6亿吨型2.7亿吨之间。考虑到2026 年仍是印尼 湿法（HPAL）新增产能集中释放朗，为维持现有及在建项目的合理开工率，我们预计2026年印尼国内银矿的理论需求量预计高于目前批准配额量2.6-2.7亿吨约 15%,对市场形成较为显著的紧缩预期。 基本面情况 基本面来看，供应端。国内电镜1月产量环比再度回升，同时印尼1月MINP和冰镜产量整体维持高位，整体操供给端压力仍存。需求端仍处传统消费淡季，不锈钢 1月排产环比在利润修复下存在小幅回升，2月因春节假期影响预计排产环比将明显下滑，终端需求仍维持B对谨慎态度，整体基本面过剩维持。库存端末看，据万得 数据，昨 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Nickel Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the nickel market, particularly the impact of Indonesia's nickel quota policy and its implications for supply and pricing dynamics in the industry [1][3][10]. Key Points and Arguments Nickel Quota Policy - Indonesia's nickel quota policy is tightening, with a significant reduction to 250 million tons by 2026, leading to an expected supply gap of approximately 80 million tons, which may support a rebound in nickel prices [1][4][10]. - The Indonesian government aims to stabilize nickel prices to increase fiscal revenue, with historical data indicating a price floor around $15,000 per ton [10]. Supply Dynamics - The Philippines is expected to have flexible nickel supply capabilities, potentially compensating for part of the supply gap, but a real shortfall of about 30 to 40 million tons may still exist [1][7]. - Other countries like Australia and New Caledonia can provide additional nickel supply, but only if prices remain above $20,000 per ton [1][8]. Price Trends - Nickel prices are under pressure, with $20,000 per ton identified as a critical resistance level in the short term. Long-term price trends will depend on supply-demand balance, policy changes, and macroeconomic factors [2][12]. - Current global nickel inventory exceeds 300,000 tons, but actual supply-demand balance may reflect a shortfall of 400,000 to 500,000 tons when accounting for grade fluctuations and inventory consumption [9][10]. Market Sentiment - The recent drop in silver prices has negatively impacted the sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector, although long-term demand growth driven by the energy revolution could support recovery [6][12]. - The nickel market has experienced weak price performance over the past year, primarily due to insufficient demand from the energy transition and competition from alternative battery technologies [2][5]. Future Outlook - The nickel price outlook is contingent on supply-demand equilibrium and policy developments. Short-term price support may arise from quota reductions and improved market sentiment, while long-term growth will depend on global economic conditions and the rise of alternative materials [5][12][24]. - The potential for cobalt pricing to be established could elevate nickel's bottom valuation by $500 to $1,000, but the upper price limit may be constrained by supply responses [1][15]. Additional Considerations - The Indonesian government's control over nickel pricing and quotas may face challenges from large enterprises with strong bargaining power, which could influence future policy effectiveness [10][18]. - The impact of high-cost projects outside Indonesia, which require sustained high nickel prices to remain viable, could also affect market dynamics if prices fall [19][21]. Conclusion - The nickel market is navigating a complex landscape shaped by regulatory changes, supply constraints, and evolving demand dynamics. Stakeholders should closely monitor policy developments and macroeconomic indicators to assess future price movements and investment opportunities in the sector [5][12][24].

Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) has seen a price increase of over 6%, with a monthly rise exceeding 30%, currently trading at 2.71 HKD and a transaction volume of 25.9145 million HKD [2] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association reported a significant reduction in the nickel production target for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down from the 2025 target of 379 million tons [2] - CICC indicated that the tightening of nickel ore quotas is unlikely to have a significant negative impact on the Indonesian economy, and the increase in nickel prices could enhance tax revenue and the value of local resources, suggesting a high probability of the quota policy being implemented [2] Group 2 - Guangzhou Futures noted that the Indonesian government is still discussing the quota plan internally, and previous announcements regarding nickel ore quotas have often been retracted, indicating that the impact of this news on nickel prices may be overestimated [2] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining owns several nickel-copper mines, including Karatungke, Huangshandong, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as vanadium mines at Xianghe Street and Mujia River, and a fluorite mine at Kalchaer [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 30% in the month and currently trading at 2.71 HKD, with a trading volume of 25.91 million HKD [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining fully owns four nickel-copper mines: Kalatongke, Huangshandong, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as two vanadium mines: Xianghe Street and Mujia River, and the Karachar fluorite mine [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association reported that the government's nickel production target for the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is approximately 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set for 2025 [1] - CICC indicated that the tightening of nickel mining quotas will have a minimal impact on the Indonesian economy, and rising nickel prices will enhance tax revenue and increase the value of local resources, suggesting a high probability of the quota policy being implemented [1] - Guangzhou Futures noted that the Indonesian government is still discussing the quota plan internally, and past instances of similar quota policy news being disproven suggest that the impact on nickel prices may be overestimated [1]