新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-26 市场分析 2026-02-25日沪镍主力合约2605开于139000元/吨，收于141250元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化2.32%，当日成交量为 221614（+88557）手，持仓量为38264（37428）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约强势收涨，日内先抑后扬，资金与情绪共振推升价格。隔夜LME镍大涨3.64%至 17,915 美元/吨，叠加全球有色金属板块普涨，提振国内沪镍多头信心。今日国内商品市场有色全线飘红，沪镍跟随板块 走强，资金流入明显。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，节后镍矿市场交投氛围逐步恢复。印尼市场因基准价调整小幅回调，但进口菲律宾 矿价格持续走高；菲律宾矿山报价延续涨势，国内市场则暂以观望为主。 现货方面：日内镍价继续走高，精炼镍现货成交整体转冷。沪镍主力合约更换至2605合约，但贸易商多数仍使用 沪镍2603作为报价合约，各品牌精炼镍现货升贴水整体持稳，金川资源现货升水继续回落。其中金川镍升水变化-350 元/吨至8550元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为53177 （1 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The report presents the price changes of various international varieties from February 13th, 15:00 to February 23rd, 18:00 in 2026, including stock indices, commodities, and currency indices [3]. 2. Key Points by Category Stock Indices - The FTSE A50 Index rose from 14,684 to 14,919, a 1.60% increase [3]. - The Hang Seng Index increased from 26,595.15 to 27,081.91, a 1.83% rise [3]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Index went up from 49,451.98 to 49,625.97, a 0.35% increase [3]. - The S&P 500 Index climbed from 6,832.76 to 6,909.51, a 1.12% gain [3]. - The NASDAQ Composite Index advanced from 22,597.15 to 22,886.07, a 1.28% increase [3]. - The Nikkei 225 Index dropped from 56,941.97 to 56,825.7, a 0.20% decline [3]. Commodity Indices - The Baltic Dry Index decreased from 2,083 to 2,043, a 1.92% fall [3]. Energy Commodities - Brent Crude Oil rose from $67.55 to $71.04, a 5.17% increase [3]. - US Crude Oil increased from $62.83 to $66.23, a 5.41% rise [3]. Precious Metals - CMX Gold climbed from $4,986.7 to $5,170.1, a 3.68% gain [3]. - CMX Silver advanced from $77.105 to $86.515, a 12.20% increase [3]. Base Metals - LME Copper rose from $12,894.5 to $12,966, a 0.55% increase [3]. - LME Aluminum increased from $3,062.5 to $3,102.5, a 1.31% rise [3]. - LME Zinc went up from $3,352.5 to $3,377.5, a 0.75% increase [3]. - LME Lead dropped from $1,976.5 to $1,963, a 0.68% decline [3]. - LME Nickel advanced from $17,255 to $17,600, a 2.00% increase [3]. - LME Tin climbed from $46,940 to $47,500, a 1.19% gain [3]. Iron Ore - TSI Iron Ore decreased from $97.15 to $95.85, a 1.34% fall [3]. Agricultural Commodities - CBOT Soybeans rose from $1,134.75 to $1,146.75, a 1.06% increase [3]. - CBOT Soybean Meal increased from $308.6 to $309.7, a 0.36% rise [3]. - CBOT Soybean Oil advanced from $57.26 to $59.67, a 4.21% increase [3]. - CBOT Corn climbed from $430.25 to $438.75, a 1.98% gain [3]. - CBOT Wheat rose from $550.75 to $575.75, a 4.54% increase [3]. - MDE Crude Palm Oil increased from 3,996 to 4,084, a 2.20% rise [3]. - ICE No. 2 Cotton advanced from 64.26 to 65.46, a 1.87% increase [3]. - ICE No. 11 Sugar climbed from 13.53 to 13.9, a 2.73% gain [3]. Currency Indices - The US Dollar Index rose from 97.0775 to 97.6349, a 0.57% increase [3]. Currency Pairs - The US Dollar against Offshore RMB decreased from 6.908 to 6.8852, a 0.33% decline [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price and cumulative percentage change of various commodities, stock market indices, and other important indicators during the Spring Festival holiday in the overseas market [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Commodities - NYMEX crude oil closed at $66.31 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.57% during the holiday [2] - NYMEX natural gas closed at $2.99 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 6.41% during the holiday [2] - COMEX gold closed at $5130.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.31% during the holiday [2] - COMEX silver closed at $84.57 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 9.45% during the holiday [2] - LME copper closed at $12964.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.25% during the holiday [2] - LME zinc closed at $3382.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.20% during the holiday [2] - LME nickel closed at $17435.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.59% during the holiday [2] - LME aluminum closed at $3102.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.39% during the holiday [2] - LME tin closed at $46559.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.62% during the holiday [2] - LME lead closed at $1965.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.35% during the holiday [2] - TSI iron ore CFR China (62% iron powder) closed at $95.30 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 1.60% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybeans closed at $1153.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.67% during the holiday [2] - CBOT corn closed at $428.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.87% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean oil closed at $59.34 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 3.80% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean meal closed at $314.20 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.58% during the holiday [2] - CBOT wheat closed at $581.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.97% during the holiday [2] - CBOT rice closed at $10.52 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 4.54% during the holiday [2] - ICE 11 - sugar closed at $13.86 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.29% during the holiday [2] - ICE 2 - cotton closed at $65.55 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.13% during the holiday [2] Stock Market - The S&P 500 closed at 6909.51 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.07% during the holiday [2] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22886.07 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.51% during the holiday [2] - The UK FTSE 100 closed at 10686.89 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.30% during the holiday [2] - The French CAC40 closed at 8515.49 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.45% during the holiday [2] - The German DAX closed at 25260.69 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.39% during the holiday [2] - The Nikkei 225 closed at 56825.70 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.20% during the holiday [2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26413.35 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.58% during the holiday [2] Other Important Indicators - The US dollar index closed at 97.74 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.91% during the holiday [2]

| 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 | | --- | | 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 | | 联系方式：010-85356618 | 使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责 本报告仅向特定客户传送 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版 载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期货股份有限公司。 近五年涨跌幅均值 NYMEX原油 NYMEX天然 气 COMEX黄金 COMEX白银 LME铜 LME锌 LME镍 LME铝 LME锡 LME铅 CBOT大豆 CBOT玉米 CBOT豆油 CBOT豆粕 CBOT小麦 CBOT稻谷 ICE11号糖 ICE2号棉 花 标普500 美元指数 CRB商品指 数 BDI 近十年平均 0.01% -3.23% 0.82% 1.95% 0.00% 0.11% 0.44% 0.27% 1.70% 0.53% 0.61% -0.19% -0.43% 0.81% -0.53% -1.71% -0.07% 1.28% 0.08% -0.03% 0.01% 0.67% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% ...

Market Overview - In January 2026, global funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, with China experiencing a notable decline in fund allocation[3] - The Brent crude oil price increased by 14.6%, while industrial and precious metals saw substantial gains, with LME nickel, copper, and aluminum rising over 10%[3] - The U.S. equity market attracted $44.9 billion, while non-U.S. equity markets only saw an inflow of $2.3 billion during the same period[12] Fund Flows - China’s equity market experienced an outflow of $96.2 billion in January, while the fixed income market saw a $17 billion outflow[25] - Active funds contributed $2.1 billion to the Chinese equity market, whereas passive funds saw a significant outflow of $98.2 billion[22] - The relative outflow ratios for Chinese fixed income and equity funds reached 11.0% and 7.2%, respectively, indicating a higher outflow compared to other major markets[22] Global Asset Allocation - As of December 2025, the global allocation to U.S. equities slightly decreased to 61.2%, while the allocation to Chinese equities was at a historical low of 31.5%[3] - Emerging markets reduced their allocation to Chinese equities, with the current allocation ratio at 37.7%, reflecting a downward trend[3] Risk Factors - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not accurately represent long-term trends, and potential economic downturns in Europe and the U.S. could impact market stability[3]

每经AI快讯，伦敦基本金属期货集体下跌，LME铜持续走低，现跌超5%；LME镍跌超7%，LME锌、 铝跌近5%。 每经AI快讯，伦敦基本金属期货集体下跌，LME铜持续走低，现跌超5%；LME镍跌超7%，LME锌、 铝跌近5%。 ...

北京时间2月1日上午，比特币跌破79000美元关口，报78130美元/枚，跌至2025年4月以来的最低水平。 截至发稿，比特币报78848.5美元，日内跌6.35%，此前一度跌至75687美元。 SOL、狗狗币等跌超10%。 | 加密货币数据分析 | | | | | | | | | Q | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 后生品 | 海外 | 代币解模总览 | | Memes ETH SOL BSC Layer-1 | | AI Al Agents | Gar> ( ( 盘示自遇) | | 现 鹤语器 8 自定义 | | 直 | | · 瑞居 | 走 | | 价格 价格(245%) | 资金费本 | | 24小时成交题 成交部(246%) | 市值 | 用食 | 加合(15%) | MO(24h%) | | | * 1 | B BTC | $78848.5 | -6.35% | -0.0009% | $1120 5102 | +6.36% | $1.57万亿 | $541.2207 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant market crash in gold and silver prices, triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a liquidity crunch and forced selling across various asset classes [3][4][5]. Market Reaction - On the last trading day of January, gold prices fell by over 12%, dropping below $5000 per ounce, while silver experienced a maximum drop of over 35%, marking its largest single-day decline in nearly 40 years [3][4]. - The sell-off was exacerbated by increased margin requirements from exchanges, leading to a vicious cycle of forced liquidations [7][8]. Federal Reserve Nomination Impact - Kevin Warsh's nomination is perceived as a hawkish shift, altering market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and monetary policy, which previously supported rising gold prices [5][6]. - Warsh's stance on reducing the Fed's balance sheet and being cautious about inflation has led to a significant rebound in the dollar index and a sharp correction in commodity markets [6]. Technical Indicators and Market Conditions - Prior to the crash, gold and silver markets showed extreme overbought signals, with gold's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 90 and silver's RSI exceeding 93, indicating a high likelihood of a technical correction [10][11]. - The volatility in the market was further amplified by algorithmic trading and forced liquidation, which triggered additional selling pressure [11]. Retail Market Response - Retail investors faced challenges in responding to the price drop, with many unable to intercept orders for gold jewelry purchased at higher prices, as retailers often do not accept returns for precious metals [12][13]. Future Outlook - Short-term market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued forced selling and volatility, while long-term views suggest a potential shift towards a de-dollarization trend, which may support gold prices in the future [14][16]. - Despite the recent crash, gold and silver still recorded significant gains for January, with COMEX gold and silver futures up 13% and 20% respectively [15].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin dropping to its lowest level since April 2025, reflecting a broader trend of falling prices across various digital assets [1][4]. Market Performance - Bitcoin fell to a low of $75,719 before recovering slightly to $79,000, marking a daily decline of 2.58% [1]. - Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies like SOL and Dogecoin saw declines exceeding 10%, with Ethereum down 9.24% and SOL down 9.95% [4]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased by approximately $111 billion over the past 24 hours, with over 420,000 liquidations amounting to $2.566 billion [5]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable lack of sustained buying interest in Bitcoin, raising questions about its role in asset allocation as both a trend-following and inflation-hedging asset [7]. - Despite favorable market conditions for Bitcoin, such as a weakening dollar and rising gold prices, the cryptocurrency has not attracted significant investment [6][7]. Regulatory Environment - The delay in the implementation of new regulatory structures for the U.S. cryptocurrency market has further diminished investor interest in digital assets [6][7]. Geopolitical Factors - Tensions between Israel and Iran may also be influencing Bitcoin's price, with analysts noting extremely low retail interest in the asset [7]. - Recent comments from U.S. President Trump regarding negotiations with Iran and military posturing in the region have added to the uncertainty in the market [8].

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling to $75,500 before recovering slightly to $78,739.4, marking a decline of 6.49% [1] - Ethereum followed a similar trend, dropping to $2,202.4 and currently trading at $2,439.46, down 9.87% [3] - Other cryptocurrencies such as SOL and Dogecoin fell over 10%, while SUI and BNB dropped more than 9%, and ADA decreased by over 8% [5] Liquidation and Market Impact - In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market saw liquidations totaling $2.559 billion, affecting over 420,000 traders. Long positions accounted for $2.4 billion of the liquidations, while short positions were $150 million [5] - The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid-ETH, valued at $223 million [5] Precious Metals Market Reaction - Precious metals experienced a sharp decline, with silver dropping over 25%, platinum and palladium down more than 10%, and gold falling over 9% [7] - The market attributed these declines to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair by Trump, which raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and strengthened the dollar, negatively impacting gold and silver prices [7][8] Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Following Warsh's nomination, market expectations shifted, with traders anticipating two interest rate cuts this year, compared to previous forecasts of only one cut in 2026 and another in 2027 [8] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% during its last meeting, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that current data does not suggest a significantly restrictive policy [9]