| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-09-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 120620 | -230 10-11月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -170 | -30 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15170 | 65 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 81691 | 79 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -33857 | -2264 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 223152 | 2058 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 26986 | 547 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 8550 | -42 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 22111 | -193 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 121450 | -100 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 121550 | 100 | | | 上海电 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable; the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation [3]. - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output [3]. - On the demand side, the profits of stainless - steel plants have improved, and the plants have increased production; the production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, but the downstream procurement demand is still weak, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased; the overseas LME inventory has increased [3]. - Technically, the price has fallen with an increase in positions, indicating a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in a range. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,170 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 30,724 lots, a decrease of 200 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 11,094 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,841 tons, a decrease of 210 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 194.65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.23 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 billion tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 billion tons, a decrease of 459,000 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests temporarily observing or conducting range - bound operations with a reference range of 12.0 - 12.5. It anticipates that nickel prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the future. The macro - situation shows that China's July CPI was flat year - on - year and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. The Indonesia government's PNBP policy restricts supply and raises costs, while the Philippines' nickel ore supply rebounds. On the supply side, overall refined nickel production increased slightly, and on the demand side, stainless - steel mills increased production, and new - energy vehicle production and sales climbed, but ternary battery demand was limited. Recently, nickel price increases led to reduced procurement demand, with domestic inventory rising and overseas LME inventory also growing. Technically, there are differences between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the battle around M60 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract was 122,130 yuan/ton, a 950 - yuan increase. The 09 - 10 contract spread was - 150 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase. The LME 3 - month nickel price was 15,115 dollars/ton, unchanged. The main contract's open interest was 77,193 lots, a decrease of 1,762 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,349 lots, a decrease of 2,345 lots. LME nickel inventory was 211,296 tons, a decrease of 936 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons (weekly), an increase of 444 tons. The LME nickel canceled warrants totaled 14,832 tons, a decrease of 936 tons. The Shanghai nickel warrant quantity was 20,723 tons, an increase of 102 tons [3]. 2.现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan/ton, a 900 - yuan increase. The spot average price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River was 122,750 yuan/ton, a 700 - yuan increase. The Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) price was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai electrolytic nickel bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The NI main contract basis was 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 199.29 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.56 dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore was 1,033.34 million tons (weekly), an increase of 38.98 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore was 65.84 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production was 2.26 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.13 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 104.14 million tons, an increase of 19.32 million tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel was 174.4 million tons, a decrease of 4.07 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 59.29 million tons, a decrease of 1.51 million tons [3]. 6. Industry News - In July, China's CPI increased 0.4% month - on - month from a 0.1% decrease in June, and the core CPI increased 0.8% year - on - year with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased 3.6% year - on - year, the same as in June. The US and Russia are seeking a cease - fire agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which has caused a "flash crash" in crude oil prices. Trump said he would meet Putin in Alaska on the 15th. Zelensky firmly rejected territorial concessions [3]. 7. Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [3]

报告行业投资评级 - No investment rating provided in the report 报告的核心观点 - Philippine nickel ore supply has rebounded, but domestic nickel ore port inventories have declined, leading to a tight raw material situation [2] - High raw material prices and a downward trend in nickel prices have caused profit losses for some non - integrated smelters, leading to production cuts [2] - Stainless steel mills' profit margins have been compressed, resulting in production cuts for the 300 - series; new energy vehicle production and sales continue to rise, but ternary battery demand has declined [2] - Recently, nickel prices have fallen, leading to increased spot premiums and decreased domestic social inventories, while overseas LME inventories have increased [2] - Technically, with declining positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears. Attention should be paid to the MA60 pressure level, and short - term fluctuations and adjustments are expected. It is recommended to wait and see [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 期货市场 - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 120,910 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is - 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5105 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars; the position volume of the main contract for Shanghai nickel is 90,543 lots, down 4,924 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 21,786 lots, up 1,182 lots; LME nickel inventories are 211,254 tons, up 2,172 tons [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventories are 25,750 tons, up 299 tons; LME nickel cancelled warrants total 15,870 tons, up 3,558 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai nickel is 20,923 tons, down 247 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plates from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 990 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.74 dollars/ton, down 7.95 dollars [2] 上游情况 - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, up 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 994.36 million tons, up 6.49 million tons [2] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, down 7.57 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of ferronickel is 2.26 million metal tons, down 0.13 million metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 billion tons, up 193.2 million tons [2] 下游情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.4 million tons, down 4.07 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 60.8 million tons, up 0.23 million tons [2] 行业消息 - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may continue as a governor after that [2] - The EU Commission spokesperson said that the EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, and the extension will take effect this week [2]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - The supply and demand in the nickel market are currently weak. The supply cost of nickel resources has increased due to the PNBP policy in Indonesia, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. Some non - integrated smelters have chosen to reduce production due to profit losses. On the demand side, stainless steel mills have compressed profits and reduced production of the 300 - series, while the demand for ternary batteries has declined despite the continued increase in new energy vehicle production and sales. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly, and overseas inventory has also accumulated again. Technically, it is in a range - bound adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly on rallies [2] Group 3 - Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,550 yuan/ton, up 1,170 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,215 dollars/ton, up 150 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 54,128 hands, down 8,675 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 16,072 hands, down 927 hands. The LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, up 708 tons. The上期所 nickel inventory is 25,047 tons, up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,038 tons, up 720 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,049 tons, down 506 tons [2] 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,550 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 210.81 dollars/ton, up 4.01 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 3.9272 million tons, up 1.0131 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 8.9649 million tons, up 0.2465 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, up 31,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, down 39,600 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, up 18,500 tons [2] Industry News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%, in line with expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected for five consecutive months. The EU trade commissioner said there are still significant differences in some key areas in the negotiation. The Central Urban Work Conference pointed out that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. The US Treasury Secretary said there is no need to worry about the suspension of additional tariffs [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the nickel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Technically, there is a rebound with reduced volume and positions, testing the MA10 resistance upwards, and it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel was 121,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread was -210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [2]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 145 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 85,713 lots, an increase of 2,167 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel was -2,491 lots, a decrease of 3,037 lots; LME nickel inventory was 200,724 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,075 tons, an increase of 120 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel totaled 29,046 tons, an increase of 684 tons [2]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel was 22,251 tons, a decrease of 48 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 123,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 123,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 100 US dollars/ton [2]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 1,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan [2]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was -188.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.05 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 291.41 million tons, an increase of 137.89 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 725.88 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons [2]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 78.86 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.99 US dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron was 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.11 million metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 18,746.54 tons, an increase of 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron was 81.69 million tons, a decrease of 19.64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was -7.75 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 182.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000 people, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The recruitment speed in May reached the lowest level since March 2023 [2]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that the US economic activity declined slightly, with enterprises and consumers facing increased policy uncertainty and rising price pressure, and the overall economic outlook was pessimistic [2]. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated to be 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Concern Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, and the actual progress should be monitored [2].