本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 139800 | 5700 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -220 | 110 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17290 | 530 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 131481 | -3248 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -49943 | -4234 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 255354 | 72 | | | 上期所 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience a short - term weak adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the competition at the 116,000 - yuan mark. The Philippines is in the rainy season, leading to a decline in nickel ore imports. The potential variables of Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes have limited impact on supply recently. The supply of the pure nickel market is under great pressure, while the demand side shows positive trends. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing, and the technical side shows a bearish atmosphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan; the 01 - 02 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,675 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 106,302 lots, an increase of 3,719 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 18,301 lots, an increase of 3,129 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,092 tons, an increase of 564 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 42,508 tons, an increase of 1,726 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,390 tons, an increase of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 33,939 tons, a decrease of 296 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 2,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 192.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.7 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,469.71 tons, a decrease of 17.62 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.29 million metal tons, an increase of 0.12 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 90.51 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 3.73 tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.53 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects to cut interest rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion US dollars. Powell said that the bond - buying scale may remain at a high level in the next few months, the labor market is gradually cooling but slower than expected, and it can wait patiently at the current interest rate, and the impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the candidate for the Fed chairman in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The US employment market shows signs of stabilization after two consecutive months of decline, with the ADP employment in October increasing by 42,000, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing the cost of supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is at a high level, but the grade of nickel ore has declined, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year. The new electrolytic nickel projects are slowly put into production, and due to low nickel prices and cost - side pressure, some smelters are losing money and reducing production, so the growth of refined nickel production is expected to be limited. On the demand side, the peak season of stainless - steel mills is not prosperous, but the cost of nickel - iron has decreased, and the profit of steel mills has improved, so the planned production volume is expected to increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, contributing a small increase in demand for ternary batteries. The domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, and the market mainly purchases on demand, with the spot premium rising. The LME inventory overseas also shows an increase. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate and adjust. Technically, the price drops with increasing positions, the short - selling sentiment heats up, and the lower limit of the range is being tested. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,750 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,015 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 118,664 lots, an increase of 3,500 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 33,684 lots, a decrease of 1,648 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,128 tons, an increase of 378 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 36,751 tons (weekly), an increase of 676 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,540 tons, an increase of 114 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 32,689 tons, a decrease of 240 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,500 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 120,700 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 750 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 210.37 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.3 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, a decrease of 23.22 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,479.1 million tons (weekly), a decrease of 18.81 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.61 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production is 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.03 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 108.53 million tons, an increase of 21.12 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 2.48 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.27 million tons, and the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.08 million tons, an increase of 0.41 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025, higher than the market expectation of 28,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October was 52.4, the highest since February 2025. The State Council will adjust the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025. The 24% additional tariff rate on the US will continue to be suspended for one year, and the 10% additional tariff rate on the US will be retained. According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in October, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market reached 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, and the penetration rate of new - energy retail sales in the passenger car market was 58.7%. Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the 8th China International Import Expo and delivered a keynote speech, stating that China will adhere to economic construction as the center, focus on high - quality development, and unswervingly promote high - level opening - up [3].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core View - The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change, and nickel prices are expected to adjust at a low level. Technically, with increasing positions and price fluctuations, there are differences in trading between bulls and bears, maintaining a range-bound oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][4]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel was 121,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 770 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread was -260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price was 1,5215 dollars/ton, a decrease of 270 dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai nickel was 74,700 lots, a decrease of 3,140 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel was -28,802 lots, an increase of 545 lots. LME nickel inventory was 242,094 tons, an increase of 4,716 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 33,119 tons, an increase of 3,604 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants totaled 6,198 tons, a decrease of 696 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai nickel was 25,272 tons, an increase of 44 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,400 yuan. The spot average price of 1 nickel plate from Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 122,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract was 1,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 630 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was -193.95 dollars/ton, a decrease of 22.14 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 6.3467 million tons, an increase of 1.3409 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore was 15.0093 million tons, an increase of 0.9156 million tons. The average import unit price of nickel ore was 61.33 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.43 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output was 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 24,426.84 tons, a decrease of 13,807.17 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 874,100 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 583,400 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons [2]. Industry News - On October 10th, Eastern Time, the US announced that in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items, it would impose a 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on all key software. The US will levy port fees on relevant Chinese ships on October 14th. The list of candidates for the Fed Chairman has been narrowed to five, and BlackRock executive Rieder has "impressed" Bessent. The Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission plan to deploy AI large models in the government affairs field in a coordinated and intensive manner [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation [3]. - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output [3]. - The profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and the plants have increased production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, and downstream buyers purchase on dips, with the spot premium remaining stable [3]. - Domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory overseas has accumulated. Technically, the position has increased while the price has adjusted, with differences in long - short trading, and the price maintains a wide - range shock within the range [3]. - It is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range operations, and pay attention to the support at the 12 - level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,620 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price difference between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,170 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 81,691 lots, up 79 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 33,857 lots, down 2,264 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 223,152 tons, up 2,058 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,986 tons, up 547 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 8,550 tons, down 42 tons [3]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,111 tons, down 193 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 830 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 182.88 US dollars/ton, up 5.59 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,308.23 million tons, up 48.41 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,018.74 million metal tons, and the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 2.2 million tons, down 0.02 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 57.74 million tons, down 0.94 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The report by National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie pointed out that efforts should be made to stabilize employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, promote the in - depth integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, deepen reforms and expand opening - up, prevent and resolve risks in key areas, promote regional coordinated development and urban - rural integration, promote green and low - carbon development through dual - control of carbon emissions, and improve people's livelihood [3]. - Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo'an emphasized putting the strengthening of the domestic cycle in a more prominent position and implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies [3]. - In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.9%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%. The year - on - year increase of the core CPI in August has expanded for the fourth consecutive month [3]. - US inflation unexpectedly declined in August, with the PPI down 0.1% month - on - month, turning negative for the first time in four months, and the year - on - year growth rate of 2.6% was lower than expected [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable; the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation [3]. - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output [3]. - On the demand side, the profits of stainless - steel plants have improved, and the plants have increased production; the production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, but the downstream procurement demand is still weak, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased; the overseas LME inventory has increased [3]. - Technically, the price has fallen with an increase in positions, indicating a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in a range. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,170 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 30,724 lots, a decrease of 200 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 11,094 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,841 tons, a decrease of 210 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 194.65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.23 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 billion tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 billion tons, a decrease of 459,000 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests temporarily observing or conducting range - bound operations with a reference range of 12.0 - 12.5. It anticipates that nickel prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the future. The macro - situation shows that China's July CPI was flat year - on - year and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. The Indonesia government's PNBP policy restricts supply and raises costs, while the Philippines' nickel ore supply rebounds. On the supply side, overall refined nickel production increased slightly, and on the demand side, stainless - steel mills increased production, and new - energy vehicle production and sales climbed, but ternary battery demand was limited. Recently, nickel price increases led to reduced procurement demand, with domestic inventory rising and overseas LME inventory also growing. Technically, there are differences between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the battle around M60 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract was 122,130 yuan/ton, a 950 - yuan increase. The 09 - 10 contract spread was - 150 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase. The LME 3 - month nickel price was 15,115 dollars/ton, unchanged. The main contract's open interest was 77,193 lots, a decrease of 1,762 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,349 lots, a decrease of 2,345 lots. LME nickel inventory was 211,296 tons, a decrease of 936 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons (weekly), an increase of 444 tons. The LME nickel canceled warrants totaled 14,832 tons, a decrease of 936 tons. The Shanghai nickel warrant quantity was 20,723 tons, an increase of 102 tons [3]. 2.现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan/ton, a 900 - yuan increase. The spot average price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River was 122,750 yuan/ton, a 700 - yuan increase. The Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) price was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai electrolytic nickel bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The NI main contract basis was 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 199.29 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.56 dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore was 1,033.34 million tons (weekly), an increase of 38.98 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore was 65.84 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production was 2.26 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.13 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 104.14 million tons, an increase of 19.32 million tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel was 174.4 million tons, a decrease of 4.07 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 59.29 million tons, a decrease of 1.51 million tons [3]. 6. Industry News - In July, China's CPI increased 0.4% month - on - month from a 0.1% decrease in June, and the core CPI increased 0.8% year - on - year with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased 3.6% year - on - year, the same as in June. The US and Russia are seeking a cease - fire agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which has caused a "flash crash" in crude oil prices. Trump said he would meet Putin in Alaska on the 15th. Zelensky firmly rejected territorial concessions [3]. 7. Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [3]

报告行业投资评级 - No investment rating provided in the report 报告的核心观点 - Philippine nickel ore supply has rebounded, but domestic nickel ore port inventories have declined, leading to a tight raw material situation [2] - High raw material prices and a downward trend in nickel prices have caused profit losses for some non - integrated smelters, leading to production cuts [2] - Stainless steel mills' profit margins have been compressed, resulting in production cuts for the 300 - series; new energy vehicle production and sales continue to rise, but ternary battery demand has declined [2] - Recently, nickel prices have fallen, leading to increased spot premiums and decreased domestic social inventories, while overseas LME inventories have increased [2] - Technically, with declining positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears. Attention should be paid to the MA60 pressure level, and short - term fluctuations and adjustments are expected. It is recommended to wait and see [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 期货市场 - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 120,910 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is - 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5105 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars; the position volume of the main contract for Shanghai nickel is 90,543 lots, down 4,924 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 21,786 lots, up 1,182 lots; LME nickel inventories are 211,254 tons, up 2,172 tons [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventories are 25,750 tons, up 299 tons; LME nickel cancelled warrants total 15,870 tons, up 3,558 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai nickel is 20,923 tons, down 247 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plates from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 990 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.74 dollars/ton, down 7.95 dollars [2] 上游情况 - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, up 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 994.36 million tons, up 6.49 million tons [2] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, down 7.57 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of ferronickel is 2.26 million metal tons, down 0.13 million metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 billion tons, up 193.2 million tons [2] 下游情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.4 million tons, down 4.07 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 60.8 million tons, up 0.23 million tons [2] 行业消息 - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may continue as a governor after that [2] - The EU Commission spokesperson said that the EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, and the extension will take effect this week [2]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - The supply and demand in the nickel market are currently weak. The supply cost of nickel resources has increased due to the PNBP policy in Indonesia, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. Some non - integrated smelters have chosen to reduce production due to profit losses. On the demand side, stainless steel mills have compressed profits and reduced production of the 300 - series, while the demand for ternary batteries has declined despite the continued increase in new energy vehicle production and sales. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly, and overseas inventory has also accumulated again. Technically, it is in a range - bound adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly on rallies [2] Group 3 - Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,550 yuan/ton, up 1,170 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,215 dollars/ton, up 150 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 54,128 hands, down 8,675 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 16,072 hands, down 927 hands. The LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, up 708 tons. The上期所 nickel inventory is 25,047 tons, up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,038 tons, up 720 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,049 tons, down 506 tons [2] 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,550 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 210.81 dollars/ton, up 4.01 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 3.9272 million tons, up 1.0131 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 8.9649 million tons, up 0.2465 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, up 31,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, down 39,600 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, up 18,500 tons [2] Industry News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%, in line with expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected for five consecutive months. The EU trade commissioner said there are still significant differences in some key areas in the negotiation. The Central Urban Work Conference pointed out that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. The US Treasury Secretary said there is no need to worry about the suspension of additional tariffs [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the nickel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Technically, there is a rebound with reduced volume and positions, testing the MA10 resistance upwards, and it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel was 121,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread was -210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [2]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 145 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 85,713 lots, an increase of 2,167 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel was -2,491 lots, a decrease of 3,037 lots; LME nickel inventory was 200,724 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,075 tons, an increase of 120 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel totaled 29,046 tons, an increase of 684 tons [2]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel was 22,251 tons, a decrease of 48 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 123,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 123,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 100 US dollars/ton [2]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 1,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan [2]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was -188.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.05 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 291.41 million tons, an increase of 137.89 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 725.88 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons [2]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 78.86 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.99 US dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron was 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.11 million metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 18,746.54 tons, an increase of 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron was 81.69 million tons, a decrease of 19.64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was -7.75 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 182.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000 people, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The recruitment speed in May reached the lowest level since March 2023 [2]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that the US economic activity declined slightly, with enterprises and consumers facing increased policy uncertainty and rising price pressure, and the overall economic outlook was pessimistic [2]. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated to be 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Concern Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, and the actual progress should be monitored [2].