1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment continues to warm up, with risk assets showing a preference. The domestic economy remains stable, presenting mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets, and the policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the weak US dollar pattern will continue in the long run. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. - The overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the ideas of long - short allocation diverge. In the financial sector, the bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. For precious metals, risk appetite has recovered, leading to a short - term adjustment. Shipping sentiment has declined, and the duration of the increase in the loading rate in June should be monitored. In the black building materials sector, the performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. The low inventory reality and weak demand expectations in the non - ferrous and new materials sector lead to continued oscillations. In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil remains stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. In the agricultural sector, the substantial progress of Sino - US negotiations is beneficial for the market [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future. This week, the long - term inflation expectation has stabilized, the short - term inflation expectation has risen, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic fundamentals have changed little this week, with both internal and external demand showing some resilience. The real estate market is in the off - season, and the infrastructure physical workload has decreased seasonally. At the local level, the issuance of special bonds has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds from the central government will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Funds are releasing congestion, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Stock index options: Sellers need to wait for the inflection point of the decline in volatility, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Treasury bond futures: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: Pessimistic sentiment fades, and the price remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Coking coal: Transaction conditions improve, but confidence is still insufficient, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Other varieties: Most varieties are in a state of oscillation, while soda ash is expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a state of oscillation, while zinc is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, and nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The rebound is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation and decline. - LPG: Weak oscillation due to geopolitical easing. - Other varieties: Different varieties have different short - term judgments, such as oscillation, oscillation and rise, or oscillation and decline [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Most agricultural products are in a state of oscillation, with different influencing factors and short - term trends [9].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - Domestic economic maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. - The domestic and overseas macro situations show different trends. Overseas, inflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. In the domestic market, there are expectations of moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements established policies [7]. - The investment sentiment in the financial, precious metals, shipping, black building materials, energy - chemical, and agricultural sectors is mainly in a state of shock, with different influencing factors and short - term outlooks for each sector [7][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, with a more cautious expectation of rate cuts in the second half of the year. US economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and the manufacturing index showed weakness, and the economic recovery is restricted by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, increasing policy expectations for the second half of the year. The "national subsidy" funds are being gradually allocated. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, the service industry grew faster, and industrial and consumer data showed positive growth [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, a weak US dollar pattern persists, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and gold [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights **Macro** - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are expected, and fiscal policies are being implemented [7]. - Overseas: Inflation trading cools down, and the economic growth expectation improves [7]. **Finance** - Stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are all in a state of shock, with different influencing factors such as capital flow, option liquidity, and policy changes [7]. **Precious Metals** - Gold and silver are in short - term adjustment due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations, and are affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. **Shipping** - The shipping market sentiment has declined, and the focus is on the recovery of the loading rate in June. The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of shock, affected by factors such as tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. **Black Building Materials** - Most products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, coke, and others, are in a state of shock, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy [7]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - Non - ferrous metals continue to be in a state of shock, with different trends for each metal. For example, copper prices are high, while zinc prices may decline [7]. **Energy - Chemical** - Different energy - chemical products have different trends. Crude oil, urea, and some other products may be in a state of shock or shock - decline, while ethylene glycol and short - fiber may show shock - rise trends [9]. **Agriculture** - Agricultural products such as livestock, rubber, and cotton are in a state of shock, affected by factors such as supply - demand, policy, and weather [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 黑色系表现弱势，金、油相对偏强 ——中信期货晨报20250613 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | STC BEY LES CALL HOW BAY ARE | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3883.6 | 0.12% | 0.73% | 1.60% | 0.65% | -0.95% | | | 上证50期货 | 2682.2 | -0.01% | 0.32% | 0.56% | 0.61% | 0.16% | | | 中证500期货 | 5780 | 0.33% | 0.95% | 2.70% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, indicating the continuous impact on demand and inflation. Despite weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. The April trade deficit was lower than expected, mainly due to demand front - loading and a sharp increase in Sino - US tariffs. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the economic outlook was described as "slightly pessimistic and uncertain". However, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies will implement established measures [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks should be noted. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Pay attention to option market liquidity. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The progress of Sino - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short - term. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Pay attention to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Pay attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: The fundamental contradictions are limited, and the price is mainly driven by costs. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is boosted by the macro - environment. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Coke: Molten iron production continued to decline, demand was weak, and the third round of price cuts was inevitable. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Coking coal: Supply was slightly disrupted and contracted, and the supply - demand improvement was not obvious. Pay attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [7]. - Alumina: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the alumina price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Aluminum: The trade tension has eased, and the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. Pay attention to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: Zinc ingot inventory continued to decline, and the zinc price rebounded slightly. Pay attention to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Lead: There is still cost support, and the lead price fluctuated. Pay attention to supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Nickel: The supply - demand situation is generally weak, and the nickel price fluctuated widely in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price rebounded slightly, and the price fluctuated. Pay attention to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Tin: The inventory in both markets continued to decline, and the tin price fluctuated. Pay attention to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Industrial silicon: The flood season is approaching, and the silicon price is still under pressure. Pay attention to unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Lithium carbonate: The warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the lithium price rose with reduced positions. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and pay attention to macro and geopolitical disturbances. Pay attention to OPEC+ production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - LPG: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of PG may be limited. Pay attention to the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Asphalt: Profits continue to expand, and the downward pressure on the asphalt futures price increases. Pay attention to unexpected demand. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: As the crude oil price rises, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil declines. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates with the crude oil price. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Methanol: The coal price stabilizes, the port basis strengthens, and methanol fluctuates. Pay attention to the macro - energy situation and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Urea: The futures price is weak, and wait for the callback opportunity after agricultural demand is released. Pay attention to market trading volume, policy trends, and demand realization. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Ethylene glycol: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. Pay attention to ethylene glycol terminal demand. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - PX: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PX price declined. Pay attention to crude oil price fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PTA: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PTA price declined. Pay attention to polyester production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Short - fiber: Textile and clothing demand is less than expected, and the processing fee of short - fiber is compressed at a high - level of production. Pay attention to terminal textile and clothing exports. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - Bottle chips: Production was at a high level, supply was in surplus, and low processing fees will continue. Pay attention to future bottle - chip production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PP: The oil price rebounded, and pay attention to maintenance changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Plastic: The raw material end provides support, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Styrene: The real - world situation is still poor, and the styrene price fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the oil price, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - PVC: Short - term sentiment improved, and PVC rebounded weakly. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Caustic soda: The spot price reached the peak and declined, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Pay attention to market sentiment, production, and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Oils and fats: The Sino - US trade negotiations boosted market sentiment, and there is a demand for soybean and palm oil to rebound. Pay attention to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Protein meal: The spot price declined, the basis weakened, and the technical rebound of the futures price is expected to be limited. Pay attention to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. 3.3 Agriculture - Corn/Starch: The spot market is stable, and the futures price continues to rise. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Live pigs: Supply and demand are loose, and the pig price fluctuates at a low level. Pay attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Rubber: There are no new variables, and the futures price stabilizes. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures price stabilizes temporarily. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Pulp: There is no major driving force for pulp, and it mainly fluctuates. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Cotton: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the macro - environment releases positive signals to boost the futures price. Pay attention to demand and production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Sugar: The sugar price fluctuates and consolidates, and pay attention to the 5700 support level. Pay attention to abnormal weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Logs: The delivery game is intense, and the futures price fluctuates more. Pay attention to shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9].