Report Title - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with the black sector leading the gains - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250725 [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the potential new Fed Chair's stance may affect interest - rate cut expectations. The US tariff policies are expected to be finalized in early August. Domestically, the Q2 economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy - driven growth, especially in Q4. Domestic assets present structural opportunities, and long - term weak - dollar trend is expected [7]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence improved in June, leading to a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The potential Fed Chair nominees generally advocate for interest - rate cuts, with nominations expected between Oct - Dec 2025. US tariff policies may be finalized on Aug 1 and 12, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, and June exports rose 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an increase in infrastructure investment. As the Politburo meeting approaches, there are expectations for policies to boost domestic demand, with more incremental policies likely in Q4 [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A long - term weak - dollar trend is expected, and strategic allocation to resources like gold and copper is recommended [7] 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: There is no need to overly worry about market adjustments, with expectations of incremental funds. The short - term outlook is for a volatile upward trend [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility is increasing, but market sentiment remains positive. However, option liquidity is deteriorating, and the short - term is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is weak. Key factors include unexpected tariff policies, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase. Key factors include Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policy. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Shipping - For container shipping on the Europe route, attention is on the balance between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Key factors are tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Market sentiment is cooling, and price increases are slowing. Key factors include the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, and overseas mine production. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Coke**: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and price increases are moderating. Key factors are steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Coking Coal**: There are strong expectations for anti - cut - throat competition policies, and prices continue to rise. Key factors are steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: An anti - cut - throat competition plan for non - ferrous metals is about to be introduced, providing support for copper prices. Key factors are supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Aluminum Oxide**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and prices are adjusting at high levels. Key factors are slower - than - expected ore production resumption, faster - than - expected electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme market trends. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Aluminum**: The boost in sentiment is weakening, and prices are falling. Key factors are macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand shortfalls. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices are under pressure at high levels, and geopolitical factors are key. The short - term outlook is volatile [11] - **LPG**: The fundamental situation remains loose, and prices follow the cost side. The short - term outlook is volatile [11] - **Asphalt**: Main - producer spot prices are falling, and futures prices are adjusting due to high valuations. The short - term outlook is downward [11] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is significant downward pressure on prices. Key factors are crude - oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are following crude - oil prices and weakening. Key factors are crude - oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [11] Agriculture - **Pig**: Market sentiment is cooling, with near - term prices weak and far - term prices strong. Key factors are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11] - **Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment persists, and prices are oscillating at high levels. Key factors are weather in production areas, raw - material prices, and macro changes. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market is in an adjustment phase. Key factor is significant crude - oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the candidate for the new Fed chair is affecting interest - rate cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of tariffs in early August. The domestic second - quarter economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy games at the end of the month. Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. - The stagflation trading overseas is cooling down, and the long - short allocation ideas are differentiating. The financial sector maintains a pattern of strong stocks and weak bonds. Precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments due to rising risk appetite. The shipping sector is seeing a decline in sentiment. The black building materials sector is strongly rising due to favorable supply - demand factors. The non - ferrous and new materials sector is rebounding from a decline. The energy - chemical sector is expected to be dragged down by crude oil and show a weak oscillation. The agricultural sector is experiencing a rapid rise in funds and sentiment [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales data. The candidates for the new Fed chair generally advocate interest - rate cuts, and the nomination is expected from October to December 2025. Tariff policies may be implemented by August 1st and 12th, with uncertainties remaining [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export volume increased by 5.8% year - on - year, better than market expectations. High - frequency data shows an improvement in infrastructure investment. There are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies around the end - of - month Politburo meeting. Currently, growth - stabilizing policies mainly focus on using existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights **Macro: Overseas Stagflation Trading Cooling** - **Domestic**: Appropriate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [7]. - **Overseas**: The inflation - expectation structure is flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling down [7]. **Financial: Continued Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index continues to reach new highs, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, but concerns about insufficient incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: High intraday volatility drives short - term trading, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, but concerns about deteriorating option liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. **Precious Metals: Rising Risk Appetite, Short - Term Adjustment** - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [7]. **Shipping: Declining Sentiment, Focus on June Loading Rate** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. **Black Building Materials: Favorable Supply - Demand, Strong Rise** - **Steel Products**: Positive news drives the market, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about special - bond issuance progress, steel exports, and hot - metal production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by coal - coke news, prices rise slightly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Market sentiment is high, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Positive news triggers a sharp rise, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Driven by the coking - coal futures limit - up, prices rise significantly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about raw - material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The black chain performs strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Rising sentiment drives prices to the limit - up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures price increases drive spot prices up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about soda - ash inventory [7]. **Non - Ferrous and New Materials: Tariff Game vs. Policy Stimulus** - **Copper**: The possible early implementation of US copper tariffs pressures prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, and weak domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The impact of warrant registration needs to be observed, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected slowdown in ore复产, unexpected increase in electrolytic - aluminum复产, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation shows fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The rebound of the black series boosts prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline, and concerns about macro - turning risks and unexpected increase in zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Supported by cost and with inventory accumulation, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: The long - term trend is oscillatory decline after the opening of the LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by weak nickel - iron prices, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong supply - demand fundamentals, prices have a strong bottom, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about the复产 expectation in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rise under the "anti - involution" sentiment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by supply - side speculation, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. **Energy - Chemical: OPEC+ Over - Production, Crude Oil Drag** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are under pressure at high levels, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [9]. - **LPG**: The fundamental situation remains loose, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices of major producers decline, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about unexpected demand [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are under great downward pressure, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about crude - oil and natural - gas prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices follow crude oil and weaken oscillatory, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about crude - oil and natural - gas prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Boosted by coal in the short term, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply - demand cannot provide strong support, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about export - policy trends and elimination of production capacity [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand both decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about the production - cut rhythm of filament factories and the return of overseas devices [9]. - **PX**: Supported by crude - oil costs and affected by unexpected device disruptions, prices fluctuate with costs, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about device recovery and new PTA capacity investment [9]. - **PTA**: Supply increases while demand decreases, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about the production - cut rhythm of filament factories and the commissioning of Sanfangxiang [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream cost rebounds, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about terminal textile and clothing exports [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: Device production cuts are implemented, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about future bottle - chip operation [9]. - **Propylene**: After a strong debut, prices may oscillate in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic macro - situation [9]. - **PP**: Driven by multiple factors, prices oscillate upward, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [9]. - **Plastic**: Boosted by multiple factors, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment improves, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: Sentiment warms up again, with a short - term judgment of cautious optimism, and concerns about expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: With strong expectations and weak reality, prices have a weak rebound, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about market sentiment, operation, and demand [9]. **Agriculture: Capital Sentiment Boosts Prices** - **Oils and Fats**: Prices oscillate and diverge, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices do not rise as much as futures, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot prices oscillate strongly at low arrivals, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about insufficient demand, macro - situation, and weather [9]. - **Pig**: Driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, far - month contracts rise, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment remains, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices follow the overall commodity trend, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about significant crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the macro - situation, it is recommended for long - position allocation, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about macro - economic changes and US - dollar - denominated quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: Supported by low inventory, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about demand and output [9]. - **Sugar**: Rising imports increase upward resistance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about abnormal weather [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the nomination of the new Fed Chair is affecting interest - rate cut expectations. The US tariff policies may be finalized in early August. Domestically, the Q2 economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy games at the end of the month. Domestic assets present structural opportunities, and long - term weak dollar trend continues. Strategic allocation to resources like gold and copper is recommended [6]. - For various asset classes, most are in a state of volatility, with some showing upward or downward trends based on different market logics such as policy expectations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Summary - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The new Fed Chair nomination is expected between October - December 2025, and US tariff policies may be finalized on August 1st and 12th [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export value increased 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an improvement in infrastructure investment. There are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies, and current stable - growth policies focus on using existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in Q4 [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities. Overseas, factors like tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. A long - term weak dollar trend is expected, and strategic allocation to resources such as gold and copper is advisable [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term implementation of fiscal policies [7]. - **Overseas**: Inflation expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Positive expectations of "anti - involution" policies are hard to disprove, but there is a lack of incremental funds, resulting in a volatile market [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment fluctuates, with selling options dominating, and deteriorating option liquidity leads to a volatile market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond yield curve continues to steepen, and factors like unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing may affect the market, which is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to adjust, and factors such as Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies should be monitored, with a volatile market expected [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, there is a game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, and factors like tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies should be watched, with a volatile market expected [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Most products in this sector, including steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to have a volatile and relatively strong performance due to factors such as cost support, production, and policy expectations [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a volatile state, with some like zinc and nickel expected to have a downward - trending or weak - trending volatility due to factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and policy risks [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Due to OPEC+'s unexpected production increase, the energy and chemical sector is expected to be weakly volatile. Different products have different trends based on their supply - demand, cost, and other factors, such as crude oil expected to decline, and some products like ethylene glycol expected to rise [8]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Agricultural products show different trends. For example, palm oil leads the rise in oils, while corn and starch futures are expected to decline weakly, and most products are in a volatile state affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and trade policies [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. There is a higher probability of the implementation of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" policy on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been released, with most rates (except for Japan and Malaysia) being lowered, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm employment in the US was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. On July 4th, the "Big and Beautiful" Act was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact on some domestic - demand - oriented commodities. On July 1st, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" [7]. Asset Views - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. Pay attention to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" on assets. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [8]. Finance - The sentiment in the stock market rebounds, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a mild upward trend; stock index options remain cautious; the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures weakens [8]. Precious Metals - The risk preference rises, and precious metals such as gold and silver continue to adjust [8]. Shipping - The sentiment in the shipping market falls. For the container shipping route to Europe, focus on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases [8]. Black Building Materials - Iron ore performs strongly, supporting the price center of the sector. Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are in a volatile state, with different influencing factors for each [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff negotiations and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing a downward trend, such as zinc and nickel [8]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ over - expected production increase will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Different chemical products have different short - term trends, such as some showing volatile rises, some showing volatile falls, and some remaining volatile [10]. Agriculture - In the agricultural sector, the prices of some products such as pigs are under pressure, and different agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by various factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment continues to warm up, with risk assets showing a preference. The domestic economy remains stable, presenting mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets, and the policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the weak US dollar pattern will continue in the long run. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. - The overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the ideas of long - short allocation diverge. In the financial sector, the bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. For precious metals, risk appetite has recovered, leading to a short - term adjustment. Shipping sentiment has declined, and the duration of the increase in the loading rate in June should be monitored. In the black building materials sector, the performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. The low inventory reality and weak demand expectations in the non - ferrous and new materials sector lead to continued oscillations. In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil remains stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. In the agricultural sector, the substantial progress of Sino - US negotiations is beneficial for the market [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future. This week, the long - term inflation expectation has stabilized, the short - term inflation expectation has risen, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic fundamentals have changed little this week, with both internal and external demand showing some resilience. The real estate market is in the off - season, and the infrastructure physical workload has decreased seasonally. At the local level, the issuance of special bonds has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds from the central government will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Funds are releasing congestion, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Stock index options: Sellers need to wait for the inflection point of the decline in volatility, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Treasury bond futures: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: Pessimistic sentiment fades, and the price remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Coking coal: Transaction conditions improve, but confidence is still insufficient, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Other varieties: Most varieties are in a state of oscillation, while soda ash is expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a state of oscillation, while zinc is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, and nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The rebound is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation and decline. - LPG: Weak oscillation due to geopolitical easing. - Other varieties: Different varieties have different short - term judgments, such as oscillation, oscillation and rise, or oscillation and decline [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Most agricultural products are in a state of oscillation, with different influencing factors and short - term trends [9].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - Domestic economic maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. - The domestic and overseas macro situations show different trends. Overseas, inflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. In the domestic market, there are expectations of moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements established policies [7]. - The investment sentiment in the financial, precious metals, shipping, black building materials, energy - chemical, and agricultural sectors is mainly in a state of shock, with different influencing factors and short - term outlooks for each sector [7][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, with a more cautious expectation of rate cuts in the second half of the year. US economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and the manufacturing index showed weakness, and the economic recovery is restricted by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, increasing policy expectations for the second half of the year. The "national subsidy" funds are being gradually allocated. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, the service industry grew faster, and industrial and consumer data showed positive growth [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, a weak US dollar pattern persists, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and gold [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights **Macro** - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are expected, and fiscal policies are being implemented [7]. - Overseas: Inflation trading cools down, and the economic growth expectation improves [7]. **Finance** - Stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are all in a state of shock, with different influencing factors such as capital flow, option liquidity, and policy changes [7]. **Precious Metals** - Gold and silver are in short - term adjustment due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations, and are affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. **Shipping** - The shipping market sentiment has declined, and the focus is on the recovery of the loading rate in June. The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of shock, affected by factors such as tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. **Black Building Materials** - Most products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, coke, and others, are in a state of shock, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy [7]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - Non - ferrous metals continue to be in a state of shock, with different trends for each metal. For example, copper prices are high, while zinc prices may decline [7]. **Energy - Chemical** - Different energy - chemical products have different trends. Crude oil, urea, and some other products may be in a state of shock or shock - decline, while ethylene glycol and short - fiber may show shock - rise trends [9]. **Agriculture** - Agricultural products such as livestock, rubber, and cotton are in a state of shock, affected by factors such as supply - demand, policy, and weather [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate and the expectation of rate cuts in the second half of the year but is more cautious. The US economic fundamentals are still disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The surge in oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - Domestic macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announces multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations in the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, and the service industry grew faster. The decline in housing prices continued to narrow. Industrial and service production, as well as consumer spending, all showed positive growth [7]. - Asset views: The domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, but the long - term weak dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price and Fluctuation - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 1000 futures had the highest daily increase of 1.10%, while the CSI 500 futures, SSE 50 futures, and CSI 300 futures also rose by 0.67%, 0.66%, and 0.63% respectively [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.02%, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.01%, while the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures remained unchanged [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index remained unchanged, the euro against the US dollar had no change in pips, the US dollar against the Japanese yen remained unchanged, and the central parity rate of the US dollar increased by 15 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate remained unchanged, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.3 bp, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield remained unchanged [3]. - **Hot Industries**: The comprehensive finance industry had the highest daily increase of 5.03%, followed by the comprehensive, computer, and national defense and military industries [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil rose by 1.27%, while ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 3.76%. COMEX gold decreased by 0.06%, and COMEX silver decreased by 2.20% [3]. 3.2 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and the US economic data shows mixed performance. The economic fundamentals are still affected by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum promotes policy expectations. In May, fixed - asset investment, industrial production, service industry, and consumer spending all showed positive trends [7]. 3.3 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [8]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment in stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are all expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined. The container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the game between peak - season expectations and price increases [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: In the off - season, the molten iron output has increased, and the market continues to fluctuate narrowly. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The coexistence of low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations leads to continued fluctuations in non - ferrous metals. Zinc and nickel are expected to decline, while others are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil maintains high volatility. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [10]. - **Agriculture**: The Sino - US negotiation has made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price rebound. Different agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to factors such as harvest, planting, and production - demand data [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance [6]. - Domestic macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, increasing expectations for下半年 policies. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing and service industries grew, and industrial and consumer data showed positive trends [6]. - Asset viewpoint: The domestic economy maintains a weak - stable pattern, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro** - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% in June. US economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and the manufacturing index were weak. Economic recovery is limited by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, and high oil prices may lead to a hawkish Fed [6]. - **Domestic Macro** - The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced financial support policies. 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local areas, and the remaining will be distributed gradually. In May, fixed - asset investment, industrial and service sectors, and consumer spending all showed positive growth [6]. - **Asset Viewpoint** - Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, and the long - term weak - dollar trend continues. Strategic allocation to resources like gold is recommended [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector** - **Stock Index Futures**: Funds are releasing congestion, with risks of end - of - session stock stampedes and deteriorating dollar liquidity, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Selling options requires waiting for a downward inflection point in volatility, with deteriorating option liquidity, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with risks of unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals** - Gold and silver are expected to continue short - term adjustments due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations, with attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping** - The container shipping market to Europe is expected to focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Black Building Materials** - **Steel Products**: Inventory is being depleted, with limited fundamental contradictions. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production, and they are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has increased, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Coke**: A fourth round of price cuts is imminent, and prices are weakly stable. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Transaction volume has improved, and the price decline has slowed. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - **Copper**: The dollar index is weak, and copper prices are high. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's dovish stance, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina futures price has risen. Attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme sector trends, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and high premiums have led to a rise in aluminum prices. Attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Industry** - **Crude Oil**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will continue to have high volatility. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [11]. - **Methanol**: The Israel - Iran conflict has not subsided, and methanol is expected to be strong with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: Geopolitical disturbances and the start of domestic and foreign demand have led to a strong futures price. Attention should be paid to market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [11]. - **Agriculture** - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday's performance was differentiated, with soybean oil being strong. Attention should be paid to South American soybean harvests, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, and it is expected to rise with fluctuations [11]. - **Protein Meal**: Oil mills' inventory accumulation may put pressure on the basis, and the futures - cash market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade disputes [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The number of incoming vehicles is low, and the futures and cash prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to insufficient demand, macro factors, and weather [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals still have the momentum to recover, but the recovery is disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The Fed is expected to "hold steady" in June due to the rebound of May CPI data falling short of expectations and the potential hawkish signals from the soaring oil prices [6]. - Domestic macro: The domestic price level remains weakly stable, with the downstream performing better than the upstream. International input factors lead to price declines in related industries, and downstream production tends to digest existing inventories, increasing pressure on upstream production. The PPI - CPI gap shows downward pressure recently [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities due to the weakly stable pattern of domestic prices and the economy, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals continue to recover from the contraction in Q1, but are affected by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. The Fed is likely to "hold steady" in June as the May CPI rebound is below expectations, and the soaring oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic price level is weakly stable, with the downstream outperforming the upstream. International factors cause price drops in upstream industries, and downstream production focuses on inventory digestion, increasing upstream pressure. The PPI - CPI gap shows recent downward pressure [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern persists, and attention should be given to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of gold [6]. 3.2 View Highlights **Macro**: - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are implemented, and the fiscal end implements established policies in the short term [7]. - **Overseas**: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. **Financial**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Micro - cap risks are not yet released, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Focus on the liquidity of the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [7]. **Precious Metals**: - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeds expectations, and precious metals continue to adjust in the short term. Monitor Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. **Shipping**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Pay attention to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The market is expected to fluctuate. Focus on tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. **Black Building Materials**: - **Steel**: The static fundamentals are good, but the demand expectation is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' hot metal production slightly decreases, and port inventories increase slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Demand support weakens, and the futures price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Focus on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Upstream inventories continue to accumulate, and mine shutdowns increase. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Monitor steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand expectation is poor, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The Hebei Steel tender is announced, and market sentiment is poor. The market is expected to fluctuate. Focus on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production weaken, and inventories decrease slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor spot sales and production [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply gradually recovers, and upstream inventories accumulate. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to soda ash inventories [7]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: - **Copper**: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are operating at a high level. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish - than - expected stance, and the less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [7]. - **Alumina**: The spot price drops, and the alumina futures price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to the less - than - expected resumption of ore production, the more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by Trump's steel and aluminum tariff increase and other factors, the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7]. - **Zinc**: After the price drop, downstream procurement is active. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to macro - turning risks and the more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Cost support is temporarily stable, and the lead price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor supply - side disruptions and the slowdown of battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: The Philippines removes the ban on raw ore exports, and the nickel price is weak in the short term. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price continues to decline, and the futures price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and the tin price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the resumption expectation of Wa State and the change in demand improvement expectation [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the silicon price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Monitor more - than - expected supply cuts and more - than - expected photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment deteriorates, and the price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks intensify, and oil price fluctuations increase. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor OPEC+ production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [9]. - **LPG**: Cost - side support increases, and LPG follows the crude oil rebound. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to developments in crude oil and overseas propane costs [9]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, and the asphalt futures price strengthens. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor more - than - expected demand [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to a resurgence of the geopolitical premium of fuel oil. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price follows the crude oil price increase. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The Iran - Israel conflict causes a significant increase in methanol prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to market transactions, policy trends, and demand realization [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Monitor the terminal demand for ethylene glycol [9]. - **PX**: Supply restarts quickly. Monitor PTA production and polyester start - up. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil fluctuations and downstream device changes [9]. - **PTA**: Supply increases and demand decreases, and the PTA pattern weakens marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor polyester production [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber industry production cuts lead to a slight repair of processing fees. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Pay attention to terminal textile and clothing exports [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: High - level production leads to oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor the later start - up of bottle chips [9]. - **PP**: The oil price rises significantly, but the fundamentals are still under pressure, and PP rebounds. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the oil price and domestic and international macro situations [9]. - **Plastic**: In the short term, it follows the oil price fluctuations and rebounds. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the oil price and domestic and international macro situations [9]. - **Styrene**: Macro expectations rise again, and styrene rebounds. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to the oil price, macro policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical conflicts boost market sentiment, and PVC is recommended to be shorted at high prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The cost center weakens, and caustic soda runs weakly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to market sentiment, start - up, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The production increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil may weaken marginally, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is normal. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The basis of soybean meal from October to January increases in volume, and the hedging pressure on the futures market increases. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro situation, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The spot price increase slows down, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, macro situation, and weather [9]. **Agriculture**: - **Hogs**: The average weight is high, and the spot and near - month prices are still under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: The rebound ends, and the price drops rapidly in the afternoon. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the weather in production areas, raw material prices, and macro changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It first falls and then rises, and is treated as weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price drops, and there is a greater possibility of breaking through the lower platform. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotations [9]. - **Cotton**: The rebound height of the cotton price is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to demand and production [9]. - **Sugar**: The new - season sugar market is expected to be loose, and domestic and international sugar prices continue to decline. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to abnormal weather [9]. - **Logs**: The spot price weakens, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to shipment volume and shipping volume [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's equal - tariff hikes and high uncertainty on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. US economic data in May was weak, but the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth reduced market bets on Fed rate cuts. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies maintain stability, and in the short term, they may mainly utilize existing resources. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to remain resilient, but pressure on export and price data may gradually appear. Attention should be paid to China's "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the Politburo meeting in July [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to gradually rise. Bonds are still worth allocating at low prices after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations. Focus on low - valuation and policy - driven logics [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: In April, the US trade deficit was $61.62 billion. The year - on - year import was 3.4%, and the month - on - month was - 16.3%. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the economic outlook was described as "slightly pessimistic and uncertain". However, May's non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth were better than expected [6]. - Domestic: Policies maintain stability. Manufacturing profits are resilient, but export and price data may face pressure. Pay attention to "rush re - export", "rush export" and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset: Overseas, more hedging and more volatility; in China, a structural market. Allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and bonds are worth allocating at low prices. Stocks and commodities are range - bound, focusing on low - valuation and policy - driven logics [6]. 3.2 Viewpoints Compendium 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies implement established plans [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks are not fully released, and the market is in a state of shock. Pay attention to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and be cautious with covered strategies. Pay attention to option market liquidity, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/silver: The progress of Sino - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Pay attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Sino - US talks have started, and the market is waiting and observing. Pay attention to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and molten iron production, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price fluctuates. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Coke: Demand support weakens, and there is still an expectation of price decline. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and the market is in a state of shock and decline [7]. - Coking coal: Supply and demand are still loose, and upstream sales are weak. Pay attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and the market is in a state of shock and decline [7]. - Other products: Such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, are all in a state of shock, with different factors to pay attention to [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are high. Pay attention to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and domestic demand recovery, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Other non - ferrous metals: Such as aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, etc., are in a state of shock, with different influencing factors [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and pay attention to macro and geopolitical disturbances. The market is in a state of shock [9]. - Other chemical products: Such as LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc., have different short - term trends and factors to pay attention to, mainly in a state of shock, with some in a state of decline or shock and rise [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Rubber: Driven by the strength of commodities, rubber prices rise. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, and the market is in a state of shock [9]. - Other agricultural products: Such as cotton, sugar, and corn, have different short - term trends and factors to pay attention to, mainly in a state of shock [9].