德意志银行外汇研究主管George Saravelos表示，美元和美债市场面临的核心挑战在于美国的双赤字地 位需要持续的外国资金流入来维持。一旦外资对美债和美元的兴趣冷却，后果可能是汇率波动加剧和债 券收益率的剧烈震荡。 全球长债收益率继续飙升。上周(5月19日～23日)，美债和日债接连出现问题，20年期日债和美债拍卖 同时遇冷，让美国和日本的长债收益率持续刷新高点。 多家机构警告，发达国家的长期债券市场面临脆弱性，债券供给在增加，买家却在减少。这种局面短期 内不太可能快速改善，因此长期国债的收益率仍可能继续冲高。 美债利率 有进一步冲高风险 随着穆迪5月17日下调了美国评级，从Aaa下调至Aa1，美国失去了最后一个最高信用评级。上周市场迅 速反应，美元指数下跌，当周累计下跌1.9%，创下4月中旬以来最大单周跌幅。 与此同时，美国政府的减税法案引发市场对财政赤字扩大的担忧，继续推动长期美债抛售。5月21日， 20年期和30年期国债收益率纷纷突破5%关口。投标倍数双双出现明显下滑之后，5月22日，20年期美债 收益率最高达到5.1654%，30年期国债收益率盘中创下5.1555%的新高点。 高盛警告，30年期美 ...

Group 1: Global Long-Term Interest Rates - Goldman Sachs predicts that global long-term interest rates will continue to rise, with the speed of this increase being crucial as it may trigger systemic risks in financial markets [1][2] - The current slow pace of interest rate increases has limited impacts on the stock market, but a rapid rise could lead to significant declines and tighten financial conditions [2][6] Group 2: United States - Concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit are resurfacing, particularly with the new fiscal legislation that does not intend to reduce borrowing [3][4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds could exceed 6%, driven by a combination of potential growth rates and persistent deficits [6][17] - The U.S. government is unlikely to reduce spending significantly, and any intervention by the Federal Reserve or Treasury may only provide temporary relief [5][6] Group 3: Europe - Weak economic data and escalating trade conflicts have led to expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June, with inflation forecasts falling below targets [7][8] - The ECB is expected to lower growth and inflation projections, and a 25 basis point cut would bring the policy rate down to 2% [8][19] - Market reactions to potential rate cuts have been muted, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [10][19] Group 4: United Kingdom - The UK's service sector inflation has exceeded expectations, providing justification for a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England [11][12] - Upcoming wage data will be critical in determining the future direction of monetary policy, with high wage growth potentially undermining rate cut expectations [12][19] - Despite high inflation, market responses have been relatively calm, suggesting that the potential for further rate cuts is already priced in [12][19] Group 5: Japan - Japan's long-term bond market is facing structural challenges as life insurance companies shift from being net buyers to net sellers of long-term bonds [13][15] - The Japanese government is increasing bond issuance while the Bank of Japan has not indicated any tightening measures, leading to concerns about rising long-term interest rates [15][20] - Upcoming bond auctions will be critical to monitor as they may reflect ongoing demand issues in the long-term bond market [16][20]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the performance of A-share insurance companies in Q1 2025 was impacted by rising long-term interest rates and market volatility, leading to a decline in total investment returns and a mixed profit performance across the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Performance - A-share insurance companies achieved a total net profit of 841.76 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, which was below expectations of 7.9% [2]. - The contribution to profit from insurance services, investment performance, and other pre-tax profits was 75.5%, 16.7%, and 7.8% respectively [2]. - Total investment returns decreased by 11% year-on-year due to significant negative contributions from fair value changes amid stock and bond market pressures [1][2]. Group 2: New Business Value (NBV) Performance - The NBV growth rate for listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 ranged from 4.8% to 67.9%, continuing a growth trend [3]. - New business volume increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 246.84 billion yuan, with growth rates for individual companies varying between -19.5% and 130.8% [3]. - Factors affecting performance included adjustments in preset interest rates, product structures, commission rates, and the fluctuating focus on financial products [3]. Group 3: Property Insurance Performance - The premium growth rate for the "old three" major property insurers was between 1.0% and 7.6% in Q1 2025, with the combined ratio (CR3) decreasing by 0.6 percentage points to 63.8% [4]. - The combined operating ratio (COR) improved more than expected, with notable reductions for major insurers such as PICC and Ping An [4]. Group 4: Investment Yield and Asset Allocation - The annualized total investment yield for listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 varied, with New China Insurance at 5.7% (up 1.1 percentage points) and China Life at 2.75% (down 0.48 percentage points) [5]. - The proportion of FVOCI (Fair Value Through Other Comprehensive Income) assets increased for most insurers, reflecting a strategic shift in asset allocation amid market conditions [5]. Group 5: Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks including New China Insurance (601336.SH), PICC (601319.SH), China Property Insurance (02328), China Taiping (601601.SH), Ping An (601318.SH), and China Life (601628.SH) as potential investment opportunities [6].