Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external macro - narrative is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the medium - term, which support the valuation of the black series. In the short - term, terminal demand is weakening, iron ore supply is steadily rising, demand is falling from a high level, and the overall supply - demand relationship is shifting from tight to balanced. Short - term iron ore lacks upward drivers and is expected to follow the sector. The price will fluctuate within a range [2][3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Supply - Outer - mine shipments maintain a high growth rate. Australian and Brazilian shipments have been higher than the historical average for three consecutive weeks, Vale's shipments reached a five - year high, and non - mainstream shipments have been higher than last year's level for four consecutive weeks. The arrival volume is slightly lower than last year, and supply pressure is expected to gradually increase [2]. Demand - China's daily average pig iron output has slightly declined to 240.13 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.62). The steel mill profitability rate is continuously falling, and blast furnace profits are approaching the break - even point. With the parade - related production restrictions in North China, although the full - scale loss of short - process steelmaking protects iron ore demand to some extent, the support from domestic demand for prices is weakening [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills has declined but remains high. The steel mill inventory has decreased due to more maintenance in North China. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and with high daily consumption and high pig iron output, the inventory is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with no significant pressure to accumulate [2]. Price - The price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore (2601 contract) will be in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 101 - 104 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship shifts from balanced and tight to balanced. The price will be more affected by the macro situation next week and is expected to run with an upward bias in the short term. The price of the main contract of Dalian Iron Ore (2601 contract) will be in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Logic - Last week, the macro - level disturbances weakened, the "anti - involution" sentiment subsided, and the market trading focus returned to the industrial fundamentals. The continuous three - week over - seasonal inventory accumulation of threaded steel on the finished product side depressed the valuation level of the black series. The high - profit of blast furnaces at a high level declined, limiting the space for molten iron increase. The unexpected increase in supply also inhibited the market, and the price generally followed the sector trend [2] 3.2 Supply - The recovery of foreign ore shipments exceeded expectations. Australia's shipments were stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and tends to rise, and the marginal support on the supply side weakens [2] 3.3 Demand - The average daily molten iron output in China has rebounded slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current average daily molten iron output at 240.75 (a month - on - month increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the blast furnace profit has also continuously declined. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. Overall, the support of domestic demand for prices weakens marginally. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron can maintain a high level and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2] 3.4 Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end remains high, and the inventory at the steel mill end has decreased month - on - month. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly this period. In the future, with the increase in shipments and the decline of molten iron from a high level, the inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply - demand relationship of iron ore is shifting from tight - balance to balance, with supply growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining resilient. Short - term prices will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market is more focused on the industrial fundamentals, although there are still expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply The recovery of foreign ore shipments has exceeded expectations. Australia's shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have risen for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and generally on the rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand China's daily average pig iron output has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.75 (a week - on - week increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and blast furnace profits have also continuously decreased. Short - process steel production has fallen into full - scale losses again, which provides some protection for iron ore demand. Overall, the support from domestic demand for prices is weakening marginally. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can remain at a high level and the military parade - related production restrictions in North China [2]. Inventory Steel mills' daily consumption of imported ore remains high, and their inventory has decreased week - on - week. Port inventories have continued to accumulate slightly. With the increase in shipments and the decline of pig iron production from a high level, short - term inventories are expected to remain stable or increase slightly [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously Bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term Long Participation [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously Bullish [1][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously Bullish [1][14][15] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously Bearish [1][18][19] Core Views - **Rebar**: Currently, blast furnace profits are still good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, with high hot metal output. The demand side remains weak, and construction steel transactions are hovering at a low level. However, the production restriction policies during the military parade have not been fully implemented, which continues to support the market's expectation of supply-side contraction. The raw material side also brings disturbances. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and currently, it is in a neutral position. Short-term market trends are prone to fluctuations [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The output and apparent demand of hot-rolled coils have decreased month-on-month, and inventories have slightly increased. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The export profit of hot-rolled coils has significantly declined, and exports may be affected in the future. Strong macro expectations provide support at the bottom, and the production restriction expectations during the military parade support the market. Currently, it is in a neutral position, and short-term market trends may fluctuate [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, hot metal output has slightly increased. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have both decreased, while port and steel mill inventories have increased simultaneously. Steel mill restocking has driven the price to be firm in the short term. Under the dominance of fundamentals, the ore price is strong [1][8][9]. - **Coke**: Coke spot prices have increased for six consecutive rounds, and coke enterprise profits continue to improve. Some regions have announced production restriction policies during the military parade, and the supply side may contract to some extent in the future. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, with relatively stable output and inventory. In the medium term, the raw material side may still be supported by news of production restrictions and cutbacks, maintaining a strong trend. In the short term, the current price is relatively high, and the exchange has introduced new trading restrictions on coking coal, so there may be a short-term correction. It is advisable to wait and see [1][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: In terms of supply and demand, the domestic coking coal output has remained flat month-on-month, with an absolute level lower than that of the same period last year. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently. The total inventory at the mine end has stopped decreasing month-on-month, and the transfer speed to downstream has slowed down. The absolute level of hot metal output is still high, and the raw material demand is relatively stable. Recently, news of coal mine production restrictions still supports the market, and the medium-term trend may remain strong. However, the exchange has restricted the trading limit of the 01 contract and increased the intraday speculative handling fee, which may dampen market sentiment. In the short term, pay attention to the risk of market fluctuations and it is advisable to wait and see [1][14][15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser. With the concentrated release of a new round of demand, short-term demand resilience remains. The total on-balance-sheet inventory continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. Currently, the main contract has gradually shifted to the 01 contract. Market sentiment has declined but still has some momentum. In the short term, the cost side has relatively strong support. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser. Enterprise inventories have slightly decreased, but the absolute level is still high. Warehouse receipts have continued to increase compared to last week, and the overall supply pressure is obvious. Currently, the main contract has switched to the 2511 contract. Short-term market sentiment still has some momentum. Continue to pay attention to the performance of coking coal and coke. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Currently, blast furnace and electric furnace profits are good, and steel mills are highly motivated to produce. The demand side is weak, but production restriction expectations support the market. In the medium term, it will fluctuate within a range, and short-term trends are prone to fluctuations [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Output and apparent demand have decreased, and inventories have slightly increased. Export profits have declined, but macro and production restriction expectations support the market. Currently, it is in a neutral position, and short-term trends may fluctuate [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, hot metal output has increased slightly, foreign ore arrivals and shipments have decreased, and inventories have increased. Steel mill restocking has driven the price to be firm, and the ore price is strong [1][8][9]. Coke - Spot prices have increased for six consecutive rounds, and coke enterprise profits have improved. Some regions have announced production restriction policies, and the supply side may contract. Currently, supply and demand are balanced, and in the medium term, it will maintain a strong trend. In the short term, there may be a correction due to high prices and trading restrictions [1][11][12]. Coking Coal - Domestic output is flat, Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased, and mine end inventory transfer has slowed down. Raw material demand is stable, and production restriction news supports the market. In the medium term, it will remain strong, but short-term market sentiment may be dampened by trading restrictions [1][14][15]. Ferrosilicon - Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser, enterprise inventories are high, and supply pressure is obvious. The main contract has switched, and short-term market sentiment still has some momentum. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. Manganese Silicon - Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser, demand has some resilience, and inventory is declining but still high. The main contract has shifted, and short-term cost support is strong. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19].