1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are in a weak and volatile state due to the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve. For both nickel and stainless steel, it is advisable to focus on range - bound operations considering the large price fluctuations and approaching Spring Festival. However, with the continuous supply disruptions of nickel ore, there is some support at the cost end, and one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is significant [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On February 3, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 132,640 RMB per ton and closed at 134,830 RMB per ton, a - 1.25% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 663,364 (- 144,776) lots, and the open interest was 101,500 (- 9,445) lots. The main contract showed a "low - open, bottom - probing, and oscillating recovery" weak consolidation trend, influenced by the game between macro - sentiment and industrial fundamentals [2] - Macroscopically, the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve overnight led to concerns about liquidity tightening, causing a general decline in commodities. The sharp drop in LME nickel dragged down the opening of Shanghai nickel. In China, the relatively stable macro - policy and rising pre - holiday capital risk - aversion sentiment limited the price rebound [2] - In the nickel ore market, it diverged from the downstream. Affected by overseas macro - news, Shanghai nickel futures adjusted significantly, and the downstream nickel - iron price also回调. But the nickel ore CIF quotes remained high due to the high FOB transaction costs. The CIF transaction price of 1.4% grade nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia reached 58 - 60 US dollars, and the domestic port quotes also rose to a similar level. There was a stalemate in the market as traders held firm on prices based on procurement costs, while downstream nickel - iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced raw materials due to falling product prices and increased profit pressure. The domestic factories' psychological price for 1.4% grade nickel ore was generally 55 - 56 US dollars, resulting in few actual transactions [3] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 143,400 RMB per ton, up 100 RMB per ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 500 RMB per ton to 9,250 RMB per ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at - 50 RMB per ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 RMB per ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 48,180 (1,606) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,528 (0) tons [3] - **Strategy** - It is recommended to focus on range - bound operations. Considering the continuous supply disruptions of nickel ore and cost - end support, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is significant [3] - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3][4] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On February 3, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 13,520 RMB per ton and closed at 13,585 RMB per ton. The trading volume was 219,431 (- 141,131) lots, and the open interest was 67,925 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract showed a "low - open and narrow - range oscillation" weak consolidation trend, with prices difficult to rebound effectively due to the game between cost support, weak pre - holiday demand, and bearish macro - sentiment [4] - Overnight, the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve led to a general decline in commodities, and the sharp drop in LME nickel dragged down the opening of stainless steel. In China, the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion sentiment and the collective decline in the black sector reduced market risk appetite, suppressing price rebounds. On the supply side, some steel mills carried out pre - holiday maintenance, slightly alleviating the supply pressure. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approached, downstream processing enterprises gradually shut down, resulting in cold spot procurement and sales. Although the spot prices of stainless steel tried to hold firm, the actual transactions were limited, and the weak phased demand was the main constraint for price increases [4][5] - In the spot market, the spot quotes were driven down by futures, and actual transactions were poor due to the approaching Spring Festival. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,000 (- 300) RMB per ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 14,050 (- 150) RMB per ton. The 304/2B premium and discount was 490 - 690 RMB per ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 6.50 RMB per nickel point to 1,032.5 RMB per nickel point [5] - **Strategy** - It is recommended to focus on range - bound operations. Considering the continuous supply disruptions of nickel ore and cost - end support, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is significant [5] - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - The prices of domestic vegetable oils followed the trend of stagnation and correction due to the stagnation and correction of US crude oil and US soybean oil, as well as the weakening of macro - sentiment. The main contract of rapeseed oil oscillated and adjusted below 9400 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the support at the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range for Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures. [1] Cotton - Cotton prices are supported under inventory pressure, with strong buying power in the market and decent consumption. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, new textile orders decline, and demand is mainly for essential needs. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support around 14500 yuan. [2] Sugar - Internationally, Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, India's sugar production has increased significantly, and Thailand's sugar production may decline slightly. It is expected that raw sugar will oscillate at a low level of 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, the Spring Festival stocking is nearing the end, prices are weakening, and the support from the spot market is gradually weakening. The price is in the bottom - grinding stage, and the market is expected to follow the overall macro - sentiment, with attention paid to the pressure around the previous high of 5300 yuan. [3] Red Dates - The Spring Festival is the traditional consumption peak season for red dates. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the downstream has sufficient time for stocking. The futures are still in the low - valuation range, and the registration volume of new - season red date futures warehouse receipts is relatively small. Attention should be paid to the spot trading and inventory situation of red dates. [4] Apples - During the Spring Festival stocking peak, the trading activity in major apple - producing areas has increased, and the cold - storage inventory has decreased. However, the transaction of farmer - owned apples is still average, and the arrival volume at the Guangdong wholesale market has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the post - festival inventory reduction rhythm. [7][12] Corn and Corn Starch - Before the festival, the selling window in the grass - roots level has shortened, and the enthusiasm for selling has slightly increased. The price is running weakly, but the price decline is limited due to the low - level inventory of the mid - downstream and the strong price - support sentiment. The demand side shows that the deep - processing inventory has increased but is still at a low level, and feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The short - term corn price may decline slightly, and attention should be paid to the selling rhythm and policy release. [14] Meal - The US soybeans have strong support below. Although the short - term impact of Argentina's drought speculation and Brazil's logistics supports the market, the market has declined due to the influence of macro - sentiment. The domestic spot market remains loose, with a high operating rate. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is still relatively high, and the downstream inventory is sufficient with limited stocking willingness. The arrival rhythm is uncertain, and there is speculation about customs clearance. The downside space for soybean and rapeseed meal is also limited. The market's pre - festival stocking sentiment is expected to gradually weaken, and the market may continue to decline with attention paid to the driving force of macro - sentiment. [18] Pigs - The spot price is oscillating weakly, the supply is increasing, and the secondary fattening inventory is rapidly declining. The large - sized pigs that were previously reluctant to sell are now accelerating their sales. The supply pressure is increasing, and there is an expectation of early sales in February. The current futures and spot prices are both weakening, with limited fundamental positives. The market is mainly trading the off - season demand after the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the market will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. [20] Eggs - Egg - raising enterprises are actively selling, and the inventory is normal. The supply of large - sized eggs is sufficient, while that of small - sized eggs is tight. The egg price has reached a phased high, and the downstream demand is not keeping up. As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg sales shift from external to internal. It is expected that the egg price will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the short term. [24] Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 30, compared with January 29, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased to varying degrees. For example, the Jiangsu average price of soybean oil decreased by 120 yuan to 8670 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. [1] - **Basis Changes**: The basis of various oils also changed. For example, the basis of soybean oil Y2605 decreased by 20 yuan to 388 yuan, a decrease of 4.90%. [1] - **Inventory and Other Information**: The inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in coastal areas is provided, and the impact of factors such as rainfall in Argentina on CBOT soybeans and the impact of Trump's speech on US soybean oil are also analyzed. [1] Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 decreased, with the cotton 2605 price dropping by 240 yuan to 14670 yuan, a decrease of 1.61%. The ICE US cotton main contract also decreased slightly. [2] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased, while the FC Index:M: 1% decreased. The basis between 3128B and the 05 and 09 contracts increased significantly. [2] - **Industry Situation**: The inventory of some regions decreased, the industrial inventory increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in the bonded area also increased. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth, as well as the processing profit of spinning enterprises, showed different changes. The retail sales of clothing and textile products and the export volume of related products also had corresponding changes. [2] Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased slightly, and the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.45 cents to 14.26 cents, a decrease of 3.06%. [3] - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price increased slightly, and the basis also changed. The import prices of Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased. [3] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales in the country and Guangxi decreased year - on - year, the sales rate decreased, the industrial inventory in the country increased, and the sugar import volume increased. [3] Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased slightly. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed. [4] - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou spot prices of different grades of red dates changed slightly. [4] - **Inventory and Other Information**: The inventory of 36 sample points decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The arrival volume at the Guangdong Ruyifang market increased. [4] Apples - **Futures Market**: The prices of apple 2605 and 2610 decreased, with the apple 2605 price dropping by 124 yuan to 9518 yuan, a decrease of 1.29%. [7] - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at major fruit wholesale markets decreased slightly. [7] - **Inventory and Other Information**: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 28.73 tons to 654.05 tons, a decrease of 4.21%. [7][12] Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2603 decreased slightly, the basis increased, the 3 - 7 spread decreased, the north - south trade profit increased, the Brazilian arrival duty - paid price increased slightly, and the import profit decreased. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased, the trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. [14] - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2603 decreased, the basis increased, the 3 - 7 spread increased slightly, the starch - corn 03 spread decreased, the Shandong starch profit decreased, the trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. [14] Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased slightly, the futures price of M2605 decreased, the basis increased, the spot basis quote increased, the Brazilian 3 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit increased, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. [18] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased, the futures price of RM2605 decreased, the basis increased, the Canadian 3 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit decreased, and the warehouse receipts were zero. [18] - **Soybeans**: The spot prices of Harbin soybeans and Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged, the futures prices of soybean one and soybean two main contracts decreased, the basis increased, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. [18] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread, all changed. [18] Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract decreased, the price of pig 2605 increased slightly, the price of pig 2603 increased slightly, the 3 - 5 spread increased, the main contract's trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased to zero. [20] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the local premiums and discounts are provided. [20] - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased slightly, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, the weekly prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight decreased, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased. [20] Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 03 and 04 contracts decreased, the basis increased, and the 3 - 4 spread increased. [24] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased, the egg - chick price increased, the culled - hen price increased, the egg - feed ratio increased, and the breeding profit increased significantly. [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a general decline in base metal prices, with zinc being the only metal to rise, driven by supply disruptions and pre-holiday stocking demand [1][2][3] - Copper prices fell by 810 yuan to 101,690 yuan/ton, influenced by a cooling macro sentiment and nearing the end of pre-holiday stocking [1][3] - Aluminum prices showed a slight decline of 160 yuan to 23,870 yuan/ton, supported by strong fundamentals and low global visible inventories [1][3] Group 2 - Tin prices experienced a significant drop of 10,500 yuan to 426,500 yuan/ton, primarily due to reduced speculative interest following trading limit adjustments by the exchange [2][3] - Nickel prices fell sharply by 5,400 yuan to 148,700 yuan/ton, as high inventories and weak downstream demand countered long-term benefits from reduced export quotas [2][3] - The overall market adjustment is characterized as a release of pent-up emotions rather than a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics [3][4] Group 3 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to influence global liquidity expectations, creating a battleground between macro expectations and industrial fundamentals [4][5] - Precious metals like gold and silver are anticipated to remain strong due to their ties to geopolitical risks and monetary policy shifts [5] - Industrial metals such as copper and lithium are expected to show resilience due to their long-term supply-demand gaps, despite short-term adjustments [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lead market shows slight price increases supported by macroeconomic conditions and industry fundamentals, with a focus on liquidity and demand dynamics [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures experienced a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 17,010 yuan per ton, down 35 yuan or 0.21% [1] - The latest London lead price is reported at 2,028 USD, down 7 USD [1] - The average price for 1 lead in the Changjiang market is 17,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Industry Support - The People's Bank of China has signaled liquidity easing through MLF operations, which, along with a weakening US dollar, has boosted the financial attributes of metals and global purchasing power [2] - The recovery in domestic manufacturing PMI and ongoing automotive consumption stimulus policies provide resilience for downstream lead-acid battery demand [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are evident as recycled lead enterprises face environmental and profit pressures, leading to reduced supply [2] - The demand side is supported by seasonal needs for traditional automotive batteries and growth in the emerging energy storage sector, along with pre-holiday stockpiling [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - The current trading atmosphere in the spot market reflects strong demand, with sellers reluctant to sell due to tight supply expectations, leading to high spot prices [4] - Downstream enterprises are primarily engaged in cautious purchasing driven by pre-holiday stock needs, resulting in moderate trading activity [4] Group 5: Short-term Price Outlook - In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern supported by macroeconomic easing, rigid supply, and pre-holiday stockpiling [5] - Key future considerations include the resumption of smelting operations post-holiday, improvements in raw material supply, and the realization of downstream automotive and energy storage demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a short-term weak trend due to multiple pressures from macro sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and capital flows [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures showed a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 17,360 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, a decrease of 0.57% [1] - The latest price for London lead is reported at 2,053 USD, remaining stable [1] - The average price for the ccmn Longjiang comprehensive 1 lead is 17,300 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a contradiction, with primary lead smelting operating at a relatively high rate, but raw material supply remains tight [2] - Domestic lead concentrate processing fees are running at low levels, and import processing fees are still in a deep negative range [2] - The demand side is experiencing structural differentiation, with traditional consumption entering a seasonal off-peak period and electric bicycle battery orders weakening [3] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - The entire industry chain exhibits a characteristic of "tight raw materials, loose finished products," with lead concentrate inventories at moderate levels while recycled lead raw material inventories are significantly lower than in previous years [3] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend, supported by raw material costs and low inventories, while being pressured by weak demand and capital diversion [3] - The lead market is at a critical stage of supply-demand rebalancing, with short-term oscillation expected [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that lead prices have experienced a significant decline due to a combination of macroeconomic sentiment shifts and fundamental pressures in the industry [2][3] - On January 8, 2026, lead prices dropped sharply, driven by dual pressures from domestic and international factors, including a stronger US dollar and a lack of robust monetary policy support from the central bank [2] - The supply-demand dynamics have shifted to a "supply increase and demand decrease" scenario, with rising inventories in smelting plants and a slowdown in demand from key sectors like lead-acid batteries [2] Group 2 - The short-term outlook for lead prices is dominated by bearish sentiment and seasonal demand weakness, suggesting a continuation of weak fluctuations [3] - Long-term price trends will depend on the recovery strength of downstream demand post-holiday and actual adjustments in the supply side, particularly in recycled lead [3] - The market is currently in a process of rebalancing between macroeconomic sentiment and industry fundamentals [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5]. - Aluminum prices also retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. The movement of aluminum prices is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but is constrained by the industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the Fed's interest - rate meeting last week, the Fed's dovish stance led to a weak US dollar index, which was positive for copper prices. On Friday night, the overseas macro - atmosphere suddenly deteriorated, causing a sharp decline in copper prices after they hit new highs [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again. Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, there was a strong willingness to close out positions, leading to a short - term decline in copper prices. After the meeting, with a dovish Fed, copper prices increased in volume. The overall trend of increasing positions and rising prices remained unchanged [5]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On December 12, Mysteel's copper ore port inventory was 664,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,000 tons. Since November, the sulfuric acid price has been rising, and the upstream smelting profit has recovered significantly [26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 171,200 tons, a weekly increase of 6,700 tons. The COMEX + LME inventory was 613,100 tons, a weekly increase of 14,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [28]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper products rebounded month - on - month. As copper prices broke through upwards at the end of November, it is expected that the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment will rise again, and the capacity utilization rate in December may decline significantly [30]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance, mainly due to the constraints of industrial fundamentals. The macro - environment is relatively neutral for aluminum. The increase in aluminum prices has led to a rise in downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot discounts of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have remained weak. On Friday, the cooling of the macro - atmosphere led to a significant decline in SHFE aluminum with a reduction in positions [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 12, the port inventory of bauxite was 26.4354 million tons, a decrease of 1.4746 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.6554 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina continued to operate weakly, with the main contract price falling below 2,500. The profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum continued to expand, but on Friday night, the profit narrowed as aluminum prices retreated from their highs [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week; overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 525,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week. The slow reduction of electrolytic aluminum inventory at a low level supports aluminum prices [49]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline from a high level, mainly because the continuous rise in aluminum prices has suppressed downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the factory inventory at 86,500 tons, a slight decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous week [54][57]. 4. Conclusion - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again, but on Friday night, they fell sharply due to a decline in global market risk appetite. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere, and pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5][59]. - Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance. The movement is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but constrained by industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets strengthened this week due to positive market sentiment driven by the release of China's 14th Five - Year Plan and the potential easing of Sino - US trade conflicts. However, as these macro - level positive factors are realized, the market sentiment will cool down, and the trading logic will return to the industrial fundamentals. Fundamentally, the steel and ore markets remain weak, mainly because the terminal demand shows no sign of improvement. The rebound in the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils this week may not be sustainable, and the decline in steel mill profits will also suppress the demand for iron ore. The pattern of weak peak seasons for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore markets are likely to maintain a weak outlook [60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price increased from 778 yuan/wet ton to 803 yuan/wet ton, and the price of Brazilian mixed powder rose from 815 yuan/wet ton to 840 yuan/wet ton. The spot landing profit of PB powder improved from - 24.26 yuan/wet ton to - 15.51 yuan/wet ton, and that of Brazilian mixed powder increased from - 1.59 yuan/wet ton to 8.41 yuan/wet ton. Australia's shipments to China decreased by 34.9 tons to 1625.3 tons, while Brazil's shipments increased by 100.8 tons to 925.1 tons. The port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 163.44 tons to 15272.93 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 592 tons to 2084.3 tons. The port clearance volume increased by 9.15 tons to 331.22 tons. The daily port trading volume of iron ore decreased by 0.6 tons to 79.6 tons. The average daily hot - metal production decreased by 3.54 tons to 236.36 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02% [6]. 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: The price of Shanghai rebar increased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils rose from 3290 yuan/ton to 3330 yuan/ton. The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points to 81.75%, while the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 0.97 percentage points to 68.83%. The blast - furnace profit of rebar improved from - 60 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils decreased from - 59 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton. The electric - furnace profit of rebar increased from - 154 yuan/ton to - 139 yuan/ton. The weekly production of rebar increased by 5.52 tons to 212.59 tons, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.11 tons to 323.56 tons. The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 6.67 tons to 430.81 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory decreased by 12.92 tons to 171.71 tons. The weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.64 tons to 328.93 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.31 tons to 77.66 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 6.18 tons to 232.19 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.16 tons to 331.89 tons. The trading volume of building materials decreased by 1157 tons to 89930 tons [29][31]. 3.3 Supply - and - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased. - **Production Volumes**: The production volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased. - **Profits**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, with the profit of rebar improving and that of hot - rolled coils declining. - **Inventories**: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building materials decreased [29][31].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply - demand relationship of iron ore is shifting from tight - balance to balance, with supply growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining resilient. Short - term prices will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market is more focused on the industrial fundamentals, although there are still expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply The recovery of foreign ore shipments has exceeded expectations. Australia's shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have risen for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and generally on the rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand China's daily average pig iron output has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.75 (a week - on - week increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and blast furnace profits have also continuously decreased. Short - process steel production has fallen into full - scale losses again, which provides some protection for iron ore demand. Overall, the support from domestic demand for prices is weakening marginally. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can remain at a high level and the military parade - related production restrictions in North China [2]. Inventory Steel mills' daily consumption of imported ore remains high, and their inventory has decreased week - on - week. Port inventories have continued to accumulate slightly. With the increase in shipments and the decline of pig iron production from a high level, short - term inventories are expected to remain stable or increase slightly [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand relationship of iron ore is shifting from balanced and tight to balanced, with supply growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining resilient. Short - term prices will follow the sector's trend. The market is currently more focused on the industrial fundamentals, and although there are expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the future, the short - term trading is mainly based on industry conditions [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - After consecutive days of weakness, the black series rebounded yesterday due to the news of military parade production restrictions, and the implementation strength needs further attention. The macro - level disturbances have weakened, and the market has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The apparent demand for finished products is weak, and the carbon element's valuation on the futures market has returned. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore has weakened. The high profit of blast furnaces has declined from its peak, and short - process steelmaking at off - peak electricity has fallen into losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore has strong resilience but limited growth space, and the unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the futures price [2] Supply - The shipment of foreign iron ore has increased more than expected. Australia's shipment is stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipment has reached a record high, and the shipment from non - mainstream sources has risen for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and is generally on the rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). The current profitability of steel mills is high, and the blast furnace profit is relatively good. Short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can maintain its high - level upward trend and the military parade production restrictions in North China [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported iron ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise on a week - on - week basis and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated this period. Looking forward, as the arrival volume decreases and the pig iron output remains high, the inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in the short term [3]