1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets strengthened this week due to positive market sentiment driven by the release of China's 14th Five - Year Plan and the potential easing of Sino - US trade conflicts. However, as these macro - level positive factors are realized, the market sentiment will cool down, and the trading logic will return to the industrial fundamentals. Fundamentally, the steel and ore markets remain weak, mainly because the terminal demand shows no sign of improvement. The rebound in the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils this week may not be sustainable, and the decline in steel mill profits will also suppress the demand for iron ore. The pattern of weak peak seasons for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore markets are likely to maintain a weak outlook [60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price increased from 778 yuan/wet ton to 803 yuan/wet ton, and the price of Brazilian mixed powder rose from 815 yuan/wet ton to 840 yuan/wet ton. The spot landing profit of PB powder improved from - 24.26 yuan/wet ton to - 15.51 yuan/wet ton, and that of Brazilian mixed powder increased from - 1.59 yuan/wet ton to 8.41 yuan/wet ton. Australia's shipments to China decreased by 34.9 tons to 1625.3 tons, while Brazil's shipments increased by 100.8 tons to 925.1 tons. The port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 163.44 tons to 15272.93 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 592 tons to 2084.3 tons. The port clearance volume increased by 9.15 tons to 331.22 tons. The daily port trading volume of iron ore decreased by 0.6 tons to 79.6 tons. The average daily hot - metal production decreased by 3.54 tons to 236.36 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02% [6]. 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: The price of Shanghai rebar increased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils rose from 3290 yuan/ton to 3330 yuan/ton. The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points to 81.75%, while the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 0.97 percentage points to 68.83%. The blast - furnace profit of rebar improved from - 60 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils decreased from - 59 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton. The electric - furnace profit of rebar increased from - 154 yuan/ton to - 139 yuan/ton. The weekly production of rebar increased by 5.52 tons to 212.59 tons, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.11 tons to 323.56 tons. The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 6.67 tons to 430.81 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory decreased by 12.92 tons to 171.71 tons. The weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.64 tons to 328.93 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.31 tons to 77.66 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 6.18 tons to 232.19 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.16 tons to 331.89 tons. The trading volume of building materials decreased by 1157 tons to 89930 tons [29][31]. 3.3 Supply - and - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased. - **Production Volumes**: The production volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased. - **Profits**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, with the profit of rebar improving and that of hot - rolled coils declining. - **Inventories**: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building materials decreased [29][31].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply - demand relationship of iron ore is shifting from tight - balance to balance, with supply growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining resilient. Short - term prices will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market is more focused on the industrial fundamentals, although there are still expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply The recovery of foreign ore shipments has exceeded expectations. Australia's shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have risen for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and generally on the rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand China's daily average pig iron output has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.75 (a week - on - week increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and blast furnace profits have also continuously decreased. Short - process steel production has fallen into full - scale losses again, which provides some protection for iron ore demand. Overall, the support from domestic demand for prices is weakening marginally. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can remain at a high level and the military parade - related production restrictions in North China [2]. Inventory Steel mills' daily consumption of imported ore remains high, and their inventory has decreased week - on - week. Port inventories have continued to accumulate slightly. With the increase in shipments and the decline of pig iron production from a high level, short - term inventories are expected to remain stable or increase slightly [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand relationship of iron ore is shifting from balanced and tight to balanced, with supply growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining resilient. Short - term prices will follow the sector's trend. The market is currently more focused on the industrial fundamentals, and although there are expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the future, the short - term trading is mainly based on industry conditions [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - After consecutive days of weakness, the black series rebounded yesterday due to the news of military parade production restrictions, and the implementation strength needs further attention. The macro - level disturbances have weakened, and the market has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The apparent demand for finished products is weak, and the carbon element's valuation on the futures market has returned. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore has weakened. The high profit of blast furnaces has declined from its peak, and short - process steelmaking at off - peak electricity has fallen into losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore has strong resilience but limited growth space, and the unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the futures price [2] Supply - The shipment of foreign iron ore has increased more than expected. Australia's shipment is stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipment has reached a record high, and the shipment from non - mainstream sources has risen for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and is generally on the rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). The current profitability of steel mills is high, and the blast furnace profit is relatively good. Short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can maintain its high - level upward trend and the military parade production restrictions in North China [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported iron ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise on a week - on - week basis and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated this period. Looking forward, as the arrival volume decreases and the pig iron output remains high, the inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in the short term [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the有色金属 market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, economic data, and industry - specific supply - demand dynamics. Short - term price movements are subject to market sentiment, while medium - term trends are more driven by fundamental factors like supply and demand, and inventory levels [1][3][4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper slightly increased by 0.01% to $9440/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 77,670 yuan/ton. Three - exchange inventories increased by 24,000 tons. The short - term copper price may fluctuate and adjust, with the SHFE copper main contract expected to trade between 76,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between $9250 - 9550/ton [1]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose last week. LME aluminum increased by 2.78% to $2484/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,190 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline. The aluminum price has strong support but limited upside due to seasonal weak consumption. It is recommended to focus on inter - month positive spreads. The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to trade between 19,800 - 20,400 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between $2430 - 2530/ton [3]. Lead - Lead prices rose and then fell last week. The SHFE lead index fell 0.51% to 16,885 yuan/ton. The mid - term SHFE lead index is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan, and the short - term price shows a relatively strong oscillation [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices rose and then fell last week. The SHFE zinc index fell 0.51% to 22,379 yuan/ton. The potential shutdown of a Russian lead - zinc mine may boost sentiment, but there is still a risk of price decline in the medium term as zinc concentrate supply is expected to be in surplus and inventories may accumulate [6]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated last week. Supply is currently tight but may loosen. If downstream demand remains weak, the tin price may decline. The short - term domestic main contract is expected to trade between 260,000 - 320,000 yuan, and LME tin between $34,000 - 39,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated within a range last week. The overall fundamentals are weak. The refined nickel is expected to return to the inventory accumulation trend, leading to a further price decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the LME nickel 0 - 3 month spread and consider short - selling at high prices. The short - term SHFE nickel main contract is expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M between $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot price of lithium carbonate declined last week. The market is in a weak state, and the price may continue to test the industry's acceptance level. The main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to trade between 63,400 - 65,200 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - The alumina index fell on May 16. Spot prices in some regions rose. Due to uncertainties in the ore supply and supply - side disruptions, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and positive spreads can be held. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 2800 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,965 yuan/ton on Friday. Spot prices were stable with some slight increases. Cost support is strengthening, but terminal demand is cautious. The market may oscillate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to raw material trends and inventory changes [15].