宏观面：2026年1月8日，铅价突发跳水，其核心驱动力源于宏观情绪的显著转向与产业基本面的共同施 压。当日宏观层面形成内外双重压制：国内央行虽维持流动性投放，但等量续作的操作被市场解读为政 策宽松力度未超预期，削弱了市场对金属板块的流动性想象；与此同时，美元指数在强劲经济数据支撑 下大幅走强，创下数周高位，直接提升了以美元计价的铅的进口成本，对价格形成直接压制。美股市场 的回调也加剧了全球风险偏好的收缩，资金从有色金属等风险资产中流出。宏观"逆风"的到来，最终与 铅自身基本面因素形成共振，触发了价格的快速下挫。 今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅大幅下跌，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报17725元，高点17760元，低点17265 元，结算价17520元，收盘17335元/吨，下跌355元，跌幅2.01%。今日沪铅2602主力合约成交量87520 手，持仓量46028手减少5981手。伦铅最新价报2030美元，跌28.5美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报17350-17450元/吨，均价17400元/吨，跌190元；广东 现货市场1#铅报17310-17410元/吨，均价17360元，跌175元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5]. - Aluminum prices also retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. The movement of aluminum prices is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but is constrained by the industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the Fed's interest - rate meeting last week, the Fed's dovish stance led to a weak US dollar index, which was positive for copper prices. On Friday night, the overseas macro - atmosphere suddenly deteriorated, causing a sharp decline in copper prices after they hit new highs [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again. Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, there was a strong willingness to close out positions, leading to a short - term decline in copper prices. After the meeting, with a dovish Fed, copper prices increased in volume. The overall trend of increasing positions and rising prices remained unchanged [5]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On December 12, Mysteel's copper ore port inventory was 664,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,000 tons. Since November, the sulfuric acid price has been rising, and the upstream smelting profit has recovered significantly [26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 171,200 tons, a weekly increase of 6,700 tons. The COMEX + LME inventory was 613,100 tons, a weekly increase of 14,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [28]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper products rebounded month - on - month. As copper prices broke through upwards at the end of November, it is expected that the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment will rise again, and the capacity utilization rate in December may decline significantly [30]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance, mainly due to the constraints of industrial fundamentals. The macro - environment is relatively neutral for aluminum. The increase in aluminum prices has led to a rise in downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot discounts of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have remained weak. On Friday, the cooling of the macro - atmosphere led to a significant decline in SHFE aluminum with a reduction in positions [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 12, the port inventory of bauxite was 26.4354 million tons, a decrease of 1.4746 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.6554 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina continued to operate weakly, with the main contract price falling below 2,500. The profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum continued to expand, but on Friday night, the profit narrowed as aluminum prices retreated from their highs [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week; overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 525,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week. The slow reduction of electrolytic aluminum inventory at a low level supports aluminum prices [49]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline from a high level, mainly because the continuous rise in aluminum prices has suppressed downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the factory inventory at 86,500 tons, a slight decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous week [54][57]. 4. Conclusion - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again, but on Friday night, they fell sharply due to a decline in global market risk appetite. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere, and pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5][59]. - Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance. The movement is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but constrained by industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets strengthened this week due to positive market sentiment driven by the release of China's 14th Five - Year Plan and the potential easing of Sino - US trade conflicts. However, as these macro - level positive factors are realized, the market sentiment will cool down, and the trading logic will return to the industrial fundamentals. Fundamentally, the steel and ore markets remain weak, mainly because the terminal demand shows no sign of improvement. The rebound in the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils this week may not be sustainable, and the decline in steel mill profits will also suppress the demand for iron ore. The pattern of weak peak seasons for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore markets are likely to maintain a weak outlook [60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price increased from 778 yuan/wet ton to 803 yuan/wet ton, and the price of Brazilian mixed powder rose from 815 yuan/wet ton to 840 yuan/wet ton. The spot landing profit of PB powder improved from - 24.26 yuan/wet ton to - 15.51 yuan/wet ton, and that of Brazilian mixed powder increased from - 1.59 yuan/wet ton to 8.41 yuan/wet ton. Australia's shipments to China decreased by 34.9 tons to 1625.3 tons, while Brazil's shipments increased by 100.8 tons to 925.1 tons. The port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 163.44 tons to 15272.93 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 592 tons to 2084.3 tons. The port clearance volume increased by 9.15 tons to 331.22 tons. The daily port trading volume of iron ore decreased by 0.6 tons to 79.6 tons. The average daily hot - metal production decreased by 3.54 tons to 236.36 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02% [6]. 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: The price of Shanghai rebar increased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils rose from 3290 yuan/ton to 3330 yuan/ton. The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points to 81.75%, while the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 0.97 percentage points to 68.83%. The blast - furnace profit of rebar improved from - 60 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils decreased from - 59 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton. The electric - furnace profit of rebar increased from - 154 yuan/ton to - 139 yuan/ton. The weekly production of rebar increased by 5.52 tons to 212.59 tons, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.11 tons to 323.56 tons. The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 6.67 tons to 430.81 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory decreased by 12.92 tons to 171.71 tons. The weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.64 tons to 328.93 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.31 tons to 77.66 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 6.18 tons to 232.19 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.16 tons to 331.89 tons. The trading volume of building materials decreased by 1157 tons to 89930 tons [29][31]. 3.3 Supply - and - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased. - **Production Volumes**: The production volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased. - **Profits**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, with the profit of rebar improving and that of hot - rolled coils declining. - **Inventories**: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building materials decreased [29][31].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply - demand relationship of iron ore is shifting from tight - balance to balance, with supply growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining resilient. Short - term prices will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market is more focused on the industrial fundamentals, although there are still expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply The recovery of foreign ore shipments has exceeded expectations. Australia's shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have risen for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and generally on the rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand China's daily average pig iron output has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.75 (a week - on - week increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and blast furnace profits have also continuously decreased. Short - process steel production has fallen into full - scale losses again, which provides some protection for iron ore demand. Overall, the support from domestic demand for prices is weakening marginally. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can remain at a high level and the military parade - related production restrictions in North China [2]. Inventory Steel mills' daily consumption of imported ore remains high, and their inventory has decreased week - on - week. Port inventories have continued to accumulate slightly. With the increase in shipments and the decline of pig iron production from a high level, short - term inventories are expected to remain stable or increase slightly [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand relationship of iron ore is shifting from balanced and tight to balanced, with supply growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining resilient. Short - term prices will follow the sector's trend. The market is currently more focused on the industrial fundamentals, and although there are expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the future, the short - term trading is mainly based on industry conditions [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - After consecutive days of weakness, the black series rebounded yesterday due to the news of military parade production restrictions, and the implementation strength needs further attention. The macro - level disturbances have weakened, and the market has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The apparent demand for finished products is weak, and the carbon element's valuation on the futures market has returned. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore has weakened. The high profit of blast furnaces has declined from its peak, and short - process steelmaking at off - peak electricity has fallen into losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore has strong resilience but limited growth space, and the unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the futures price [2] Supply - The shipment of foreign iron ore has increased more than expected. Australia's shipment is stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipment has reached a record high, and the shipment from non - mainstream sources has risen for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and is generally on the rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). The current profitability of steel mills is high, and the blast furnace profit is relatively good. Short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can maintain its high - level upward trend and the military parade production restrictions in North China [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported iron ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise on a week - on - week basis and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated this period. Looking forward, as the arrival volume decreases and the pig iron output remains high, the inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in the short term [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the有色金属 market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, economic data, and industry - specific supply - demand dynamics. Short - term price movements are subject to market sentiment, while medium - term trends are more driven by fundamental factors like supply and demand, and inventory levels [1][3][4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper slightly increased by 0.01% to $9440/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 77,670 yuan/ton. Three - exchange inventories increased by 24,000 tons. The short - term copper price may fluctuate and adjust, with the SHFE copper main contract expected to trade between 76,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between $9250 - 9550/ton [1]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose last week. LME aluminum increased by 2.78% to $2484/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,190 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline. The aluminum price has strong support but limited upside due to seasonal weak consumption. It is recommended to focus on inter - month positive spreads. The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to trade between 19,800 - 20,400 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between $2430 - 2530/ton [3]. Lead - Lead prices rose and then fell last week. The SHFE lead index fell 0.51% to 16,885 yuan/ton. The mid - term SHFE lead index is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan, and the short - term price shows a relatively strong oscillation [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices rose and then fell last week. The SHFE zinc index fell 0.51% to 22,379 yuan/ton. The potential shutdown of a Russian lead - zinc mine may boost sentiment, but there is still a risk of price decline in the medium term as zinc concentrate supply is expected to be in surplus and inventories may accumulate [6]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated last week. Supply is currently tight but may loosen. If downstream demand remains weak, the tin price may decline. The short - term domestic main contract is expected to trade between 260,000 - 320,000 yuan, and LME tin between $34,000 - 39,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated within a range last week. The overall fundamentals are weak. The refined nickel is expected to return to the inventory accumulation trend, leading to a further price decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the LME nickel 0 - 3 month spread and consider short - selling at high prices. The short - term SHFE nickel main contract is expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M between $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot price of lithium carbonate declined last week. The market is in a weak state, and the price may continue to test the industry's acceptance level. The main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to trade between 63,400 - 65,200 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - The alumina index fell on May 16. Spot prices in some regions rose. Due to uncertainties in the ore supply and supply - side disruptions, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and positive spreads can be held. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 2800 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,965 yuan/ton on Friday. Spot prices were stable with some slight increases. Cost support is strengthening, but terminal demand is cautious. The market may oscillate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to raw material trends and inventory changes [15].