新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 单边：区间操作为主 美联储鹰派言论升温，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-03日沪镍主力合约2603开于132640元/吨，收于134830元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.25%，当日成交量 为663364（-144776）手，持仓量为101500（-9445）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈 "低开 — 探底 — 震荡回升" 的弱势整理走势，整体在宏观情绪与产业基本面博 弈下寻求支撑。宏观方面，隔夜美联储鹰派言论升温，市场担忧流动性收紧，引发大宗商品普跌，伦镍大幅下挫， 拖累沪镍开盘走弱。国内宏观政策相对稳定，但节前资金避险情绪上升，抑制价格反弹高度。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场与下游走势分化。受海外宏观消息影响，沪镍期货大幅调整，下游镍 铁价格随之回调。然而，镍矿端受前期极高的FOB成交成本支撑，CIF报价维持高位，难以松动。据悉，菲律宾1.4% 品位镍矿至印尼的CIF成交价已达到58-60美元，国内港口同品位报价也跟涨至相近水平。市场呈现僵持状态。镍 矿贸易商基于采购成本，报价坚挺。而下游镍铁厂因产品价格下跌，利润 ...

发期货页 场。在任何 何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成肤 发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货 分析方法: 具附属 经常主要将经济 网 哈自拍 下得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" | 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 2026年2月2日 Z0019938 | | 原 | | 1月30日 1月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 江苏均价 8670 8790 -120 -1.37% 现价 | | 期份 Y2605 8282 8382 -100 -1.19% | | 募差 Y2605 388 408 -20 -4.90% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05+400 05 + 410 -10 - | | 仓单 25960 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 1月30日 1月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 9240 9370 -130 -1.39% | | 期价 P2605 9240 9362 -122 -1.30% | | 基差 P2605 0 8 -8 -100.00% | | 现货基差报价 广 ...

铜价高位回调：1#铜价下跌810元至101,690元/吨。在昨日大幅上涨后，今日价格承压回落。尽管LME 库存持续下降提供长期支撑，但春节前备货接近尾声，社会库存有所累积，加之宏观情绪降温，共同导 致短期价格调整。 铝价稳健震荡：A00铝价小幅下跌160元至23,870元/吨，回调幅度相对有限。其走势凸显强劲基本面支 撑，全球显性库存处于历史低位，叠加新能源等领域需求旺盛，预计铝价中期上行趋势未改。 锌价逆势走强：1#锌价上涨40元至24,670元/吨，成为日内唯一上涨品种。内外盘联动上涨，主要受海 外矿山供应扰动、国内冶炼检修预期以及节前部分补库需求支撑，低库存格局为价格提供了弹性。 铅价区间整理：1#铅价下跌100元至17,050元/吨，走势相对平稳。市场缺乏突出矛盾，原生与再生铅供 应稳定，而需求端增长动力不足，使其短期主要受宏观情绪及板块联动影响。 锡价大幅调整：1#锡价暴跌10,500元至426,500元/吨，领跌有色板块。上期所调低该品种日内开仓限 额，直接抑制了投机热情，导致资金迅速离场。尽管全球锡矿供应长期偏紧，但短期半导体需求复苏缓 慢，价格波动因此被放大。 镍价显著承压：1#镍价重挫5,4 ...

现货交投与走势预测：偏强震荡，刚需主导 今日现货市场交投氛围随期货走强回暖，呈现"报价坚挺、刚需成交"特征。持货商受供应偏紧预期影响 惜售情绪浓厚，现货报价维持高位，现货对期货贴水幅度收窄。下游企业以节前备货刚需采购为主，对 高价货源谨慎观望，整体交投活跃度温和回升但未出现爆发式增长。 短期铅价走势预测 今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅下跌，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报17140元，高点报17155元，低点 17005元，结算价17070元/吨，收盘17010元/吨，跌35元，跌幅0.21%。伦铅最新价报2028美元，跌7美 元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报17010-17110元/吨，均价17060元，涨50元；广东现货 市场1#铅报16960-17060元/吨，均价17010元，涨25元。今日现货铅市场报价在16925-17110元/吨之间， 对比沪期铅2602合约贴水145-升水40元/吨，沪期铅2603合约贴水190-贴水5元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小涨，其背后是宏观环境与产业基本面共振形成的清晰支撑。宏观 层面，中国央行通过MLF操作释放流动性宽松信号，与美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a short-term weak trend due to multiple pressures from macro sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and capital flows [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures showed a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 17,360 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, a decrease of 0.57% [1] - The latest price for London lead is reported at 2,053 USD, remaining stable [1] - The average price for the ccmn Longjiang comprehensive 1 lead is 17,300 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a contradiction, with primary lead smelting operating at a relatively high rate, but raw material supply remains tight [2] - Domestic lead concentrate processing fees are running at low levels, and import processing fees are still in a deep negative range [2] - The demand side is experiencing structural differentiation, with traditional consumption entering a seasonal off-peak period and electric bicycle battery orders weakening [3] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - The entire industry chain exhibits a characteristic of "tight raw materials, loose finished products," with lead concentrate inventories at moderate levels while recycled lead raw material inventories are significantly lower than in previous years [3] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend, supported by raw material costs and low inventories, while being pressured by weak demand and capital diversion [3] - The lead market is at a critical stage of supply-demand rebalancing, with short-term oscillation expected [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that lead prices have experienced a significant decline due to a combination of macroeconomic sentiment shifts and fundamental pressures in the industry [2][3] - On January 8, 2026, lead prices dropped sharply, driven by dual pressures from domestic and international factors, including a stronger US dollar and a lack of robust monetary policy support from the central bank [2] - The supply-demand dynamics have shifted to a "supply increase and demand decrease" scenario, with rising inventories in smelting plants and a slowdown in demand from key sectors like lead-acid batteries [2] Group 2 - The short-term outlook for lead prices is dominated by bearish sentiment and seasonal demand weakness, suggesting a continuation of weak fluctuations [3] - Long-term price trends will depend on the recovery strength of downstream demand post-holiday and actual adjustments in the supply side, particularly in recycled lead [3] - The market is currently in a process of rebalancing between macroeconomic sentiment and industry fundamentals [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5]. - Aluminum prices also retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. The movement of aluminum prices is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but is constrained by the industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the Fed's interest - rate meeting last week, the Fed's dovish stance led to a weak US dollar index, which was positive for copper prices. On Friday night, the overseas macro - atmosphere suddenly deteriorated, causing a sharp decline in copper prices after they hit new highs [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again. Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, there was a strong willingness to close out positions, leading to a short - term decline in copper prices. After the meeting, with a dovish Fed, copper prices increased in volume. The overall trend of increasing positions and rising prices remained unchanged [5]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On December 12, Mysteel's copper ore port inventory was 664,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,000 tons. Since November, the sulfuric acid price has been rising, and the upstream smelting profit has recovered significantly [26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 171,200 tons, a weekly increase of 6,700 tons. The COMEX + LME inventory was 613,100 tons, a weekly increase of 14,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [28]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper products rebounded month - on - month. As copper prices broke through upwards at the end of November, it is expected that the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment will rise again, and the capacity utilization rate in December may decline significantly [30]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance, mainly due to the constraints of industrial fundamentals. The macro - environment is relatively neutral for aluminum. The increase in aluminum prices has led to a rise in downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot discounts of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have remained weak. On Friday, the cooling of the macro - atmosphere led to a significant decline in SHFE aluminum with a reduction in positions [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 12, the port inventory of bauxite was 26.4354 million tons, a decrease of 1.4746 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.6554 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina continued to operate weakly, with the main contract price falling below 2,500. The profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum continued to expand, but on Friday night, the profit narrowed as aluminum prices retreated from their highs [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week; overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 525,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week. The slow reduction of electrolytic aluminum inventory at a low level supports aluminum prices [49]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline from a high level, mainly because the continuous rise in aluminum prices has suppressed downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the factory inventory at 86,500 tons, a slight decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous week [54][57]. 4. Conclusion - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again, but on Friday night, they fell sharply due to a decline in global market risk appetite. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere, and pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5][59]. - Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance. The movement is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but constrained by industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets strengthened this week due to positive market sentiment driven by the release of China's 14th Five - Year Plan and the potential easing of Sino - US trade conflicts. However, as these macro - level positive factors are realized, the market sentiment will cool down, and the trading logic will return to the industrial fundamentals. Fundamentally, the steel and ore markets remain weak, mainly because the terminal demand shows no sign of improvement. The rebound in the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils this week may not be sustainable, and the decline in steel mill profits will also suppress the demand for iron ore. The pattern of weak peak seasons for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore markets are likely to maintain a weak outlook [60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price increased from 778 yuan/wet ton to 803 yuan/wet ton, and the price of Brazilian mixed powder rose from 815 yuan/wet ton to 840 yuan/wet ton. The spot landing profit of PB powder improved from - 24.26 yuan/wet ton to - 15.51 yuan/wet ton, and that of Brazilian mixed powder increased from - 1.59 yuan/wet ton to 8.41 yuan/wet ton. Australia's shipments to China decreased by 34.9 tons to 1625.3 tons, while Brazil's shipments increased by 100.8 tons to 925.1 tons. The port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 163.44 tons to 15272.93 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 592 tons to 2084.3 tons. The port clearance volume increased by 9.15 tons to 331.22 tons. The daily port trading volume of iron ore decreased by 0.6 tons to 79.6 tons. The average daily hot - metal production decreased by 3.54 tons to 236.36 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02% [6]. 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: The price of Shanghai rebar increased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils rose from 3290 yuan/ton to 3330 yuan/ton. The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points to 81.75%, while the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 0.97 percentage points to 68.83%. The blast - furnace profit of rebar improved from - 60 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils decreased from - 59 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton. The electric - furnace profit of rebar increased from - 154 yuan/ton to - 139 yuan/ton. The weekly production of rebar increased by 5.52 tons to 212.59 tons, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.11 tons to 323.56 tons. The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 6.67 tons to 430.81 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory decreased by 12.92 tons to 171.71 tons. The weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.64 tons to 328.93 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.31 tons to 77.66 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 6.18 tons to 232.19 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.16 tons to 331.89 tons. The trading volume of building materials decreased by 1157 tons to 89930 tons [29][31]. 3.3 Supply - and - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased. - **Production Volumes**: The production volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased. - **Profits**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, with the profit of rebar improving and that of hot - rolled coils declining. - **Inventories**: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building materials decreased [29][31].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply - demand relationship of iron ore is shifting from tight - balance to balance, with supply growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining resilient. Short - term prices will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market is more focused on the industrial fundamentals, although there are still expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply The recovery of foreign ore shipments has exceeded expectations. Australia's shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have risen for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and generally on the rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand China's daily average pig iron output has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.75 (a week - on - week increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and blast furnace profits have also continuously decreased. Short - process steel production has fallen into full - scale losses again, which provides some protection for iron ore demand. Overall, the support from domestic demand for prices is weakening marginally. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can remain at a high level and the military parade - related production restrictions in North China [2]. Inventory Steel mills' daily consumption of imported ore remains high, and their inventory has decreased week - on - week. Port inventories have continued to accumulate slightly. With the increase in shipments and the decline of pig iron production from a high level, short - term inventories are expected to remain stable or increase slightly [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand relationship of iron ore is shifting from balanced and tight to balanced, with supply growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining resilient. Short - term prices will follow the sector's trend. The market is currently more focused on the industrial fundamentals, and although there are expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies in the future, the short - term trading is mainly based on industry conditions [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - After consecutive days of weakness, the black series rebounded yesterday due to the news of military parade production restrictions, and the implementation strength needs further attention. The macro - level disturbances have weakened, and the market has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The apparent demand for finished products is weak, and the carbon element's valuation on the futures market has returned. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore has weakened. The high profit of blast furnaces has declined from its peak, and short - process steelmaking at off - peak electricity has fallen into losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore has strong resilience but limited growth space, and the unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the futures price [2] Supply - The shipment of foreign iron ore has increased more than expected. Australia's shipment is stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipment has reached a record high, and the shipment from non - mainstream sources has risen for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and is generally on the rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). The current profitability of steel mills is high, and the blast furnace profit is relatively good. Short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can maintain its high - level upward trend and the military parade production restrictions in North China [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported iron ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise on a week - on - week basis and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated this period. Looking forward, as the arrival volume decreases and the pig iron output remains high, the inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in the short term [3]