存款数字创五年新高，但没人敢说这是"富裕"。央行数据显示，2025年二季度居民存款突破128万亿元，同比激增12.3%。北京程序员小李的故事极具代表 性：他本打算换辆30万的中高档车，最终却将钱存入银行。不是不想消费，而是"怕下个月降薪，怕突然失业"。这种集体性防御心理，让社会消费品零售 总额增速始终徘徊在4%左右，远低于年初预期的5.5%。更讽刺的是，即便央行降准降息释放流动性，企业贷款难、百姓借钱谨慎的现象依然普遍——钱 在金融体系空转，就是流不到真正需要的地方。 房地产市场的反常更令人深思。首付比例降了，房贷利率历史新低，限购政策松了，但买房的人反而少了。2025年上半年，全国商品房销售面积同比下降 8.3%，销售额暴跌12.6%。上海同事王梅付七成首付买房，只因"不敢背太多债"。这种"恐贷症"背后，是居民实际收入增长2.8%却跑不赢CPI的残酷现 实。当"房住不炒"变成"房住不敢"，当一线城市人口净流出17.2万而二三线净流入26.8万，房租"倒挂"现象揭示的不仅是人口流动规律，更是城市吸引力 衰减的隐忧。 消费市场的分化达到前所未有的程度。一边是奢侈品市场寒冬——LV、香奈儿在华销售额两位数下滑，中 ...

Core Insights - The latest data from the People's Bank of China indicates a significant cooling in the real estate market, with the total personal housing loan balance reaching 37.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.1% decrease compared to the same period last year, signaling a profound transformation in the market [1][3] Group 1: Loan Dynamics - Personal housing loan balances have experienced negative growth for the second consecutive year, with this year's decline of 0.1% being less severe than last year's 2.1%, indicating that the speed of loan repayments is outpacing new loan issuance [3][5] - In the first half of this year, new housing loans amounted to only 51 billion yuan, while early repayments reached an astonishing scale, with 24 yuan being repaid for every 1 yuan of new loans issued [3][5] Group 2: Market Conditions - The decline in housing loan balances is primarily attributed to weak housing sales, with new residential sales dropping by 5.2% year-on-year to 4.42 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, affecting the growth of loan balances as over 80% of Chinese homebuyers rely on loans [5][6] - Despite the downtrend, the average down payment ratio has fallen to a historical low of 15% for both first and second homes, yet buyers remain hesitant to take on loans due to a defensive savings mentality amid income instability [5][6] Group 3: Changing Buyer Behavior - The appeal of early repayment arbitrage is diminishing as the gap between new loan rates (3.1%) and existing loan rates has narrowed to less than 0.5%, with many families that could repay early having already done so [6][7] - The proportion of homebuyers under 25 has plummeted from 17% in 2020 to 3.8% in 2025, reflecting a shift in attitudes where younger generations prefer renting over taking on long-term debt [6][7] Group 4: Market Recovery Challenges - Although the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 30 major cities increased by 12% in the first half of the year, this growth is largely superficial, as it represents a transfer of debt rather than an increase in overall loan amounts [7] - The anticipated rise in foreclosures, with an expected 210,000 new cases in 2025, poses a significant risk to the housing loan balance, as these properties may become "bad debts" [7] - Government measures to stimulate the market, including a 60% reduction in loan rates from historical highs, have not led to sustained recovery, highlighting the fragile nature of the real estate market [7]