【文/观察者网专栏作者 白玉京】 美国载人登月计划正处于关键节点，一位"局内人"的公开发声却显得格外刺耳。 近日，前NASA局长迈克尔·格里芬在国会听证会上直言，美国现行登月方案在工程上难以成立。这并非 美国内部不同派系之间的相互攻击或刻意唱衰，更像是一声来自体系内部的吹哨——提醒人们，一个庞 大的工程系统，正在沿着越来越难以纠偏的方向加速前行。 格里芬是科班出身，写过教材带过课，相当于美国航天的一位祖师爷。图片来源：NASA 如果说别人充当"吹哨人"尚不足以服众，那么格里芬的分量显然是够的。他曾是美国载人登月计划的掌 门人，主导制定过"星座计划"，设计了以战神1号和战神5号为核心的双火箭登月架构。耐人寻味的是， 这套强调载人与货运分离、压低任务内复杂度的思路，与中国正在推进的"双发长征十号"载人登月方 案，在工程逻辑上不谋而合。 战神1号和战神5号双火箭，是星座计划的最大亮点。图片来源：NASA 倒霉的星座计划 如果把今天的阿尔忒弥斯计划视为美国重返月球的"唯一选项"，本身就是一种历史误读。事实上，在进 入当前这条高度复杂、强耦合的技术路径之前，美国曾经系统性地思考过另一种登月方案，而且那套方 案在工程逻辑 ...

Core Insights - The competition in space exploration has intensified, with China's manned lunar program making significant progress, particularly with the successful tests of the Long March 10 rocket, raising concerns in the U.S. about potentially falling behind in the lunar race [1][3] - The U.S. Artemis program, intended to be a grand initiative for manned lunar missions, faces criticism for its complex processes and heavy reliance on SpaceX's Starship, leading to delays and uncertainty [1][5] - China's achievements in space, including the successful testing of the lunar lander "Lanyue" and the "Dream Boat" spacecraft, highlight its technological advancements and set the stage for future lunar base construction [5][7] U.S. Response and Strategy - In response to China's advancements, U.S. officials have announced plans to reopen contracts for lunar lander development, aiming to involve more companies in the competition, indicating a sense of urgency and concern [3][5] - Experts have called for a "Plan B" for the U.S. lunar missions, suggesting that allowing other aerospace companies to bid for lunar lander contracts could expedite the development of reliable landing solutions [3][5] - The U.S. faces challenges in quickly developing new lunar landers due to limited technological capabilities of companies like Blue Origin and potential cost issues with Lockheed Martin, compounded by government budget constraints [5][7] Geopolitical Implications - The lunar race is not just a technological contest but also a geopolitical struggle, with implications for national prestige and strategic positioning in the coming decades [7] - The outcome of the lunar missions could significantly influence the future dynamics of international space relations and the balance of power in space exploration [7]

Core Points - Elon Musk criticized NASA's acting administrator Sean Duffy for delays in the U.S. lunar return program, specifically regarding SpaceX's work on the Artemis III lunar landing system [2][3] - Duffy indicated that SpaceX's progress is behind schedule and mentioned the possibility of contracting competitors like Blue Origin [3][5] - NASA is seeking proposals from SpaceX and Blue Origin to accelerate the project by October 29 [3][6] Group 1 - Sean Duffy was appointed as NASA's acting administrator by President Donald Trump, filling a position that had been vacant since the beginning of Trump's term [4] - The Artemis program, initiated during Trump's first term, aims to establish a long-term human presence on the Moon for scientific exploration and technology development [5][6] - SpaceX won a $2.9 billion contract in 2021 to develop technologies for the Artemis program, competing with other contractors like Blue Origin, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing [5][6] Group 2 - The Artemis program has faced multiple setbacks, with the first mission launched in November 2022 and subsequent delays affecting the planned missions [6] - NASA plans to conduct its first crewed Artemis launch in April 2026 and aims to send two astronauts to the Moon in 2027 [6] - Ongoing government shutdowns are impacting NASA's operations, potentially delaying all restart contracts, although exceptions have been made for Artemis mission employees and contractors [7]

Core Viewpoint - NASA's lunar program is facing delays, prompting the agency to consider opening contracts to other companies to ensure a timely return to the Moon ahead of China [1][2][4]. Group 1: NASA's Lunar Program - NASA's Artemis mission aims for a long-term human presence on the Moon and preparation for Mars exploration, with the Artemis III mission scheduled for 2027 [1][6]. - The Artemis III mission was initially planned for 2024 but has been delayed to 2027 due to various setbacks, including issues with SpaceX's Starship [5][6]. - NASA's acting administrator, Sean Duffy, has expressed urgency in competing with China for lunar exploration, indicating a willingness to replace SpaceX with other contractors if necessary [2][4]. Group 2: SpaceX's Role - SpaceX was awarded a $2.9 billion contract to provide the Human Landing System (HLS) for the Artemis III mission, but progress has been slow, with multiple flight failures since 2025 [1][5]. - Elon Musk has defended SpaceX's progress, claiming it is significantly faster than competitors and asserting confidence in the Starship's eventual success [5]. Group 3: Competitors and Industry Dynamics - Other companies, including Blue Origin, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman, are also involved in supporting NASA's Artemis program [4]. - Duffy has hinted at the possibility of Blue Origin taking over SpaceX's role if they can deliver results more quickly [2][4]. - NASA is actively seeking proposals from SpaceX and Blue Origin to accelerate the development of the lunar lander by October 29 [5]. Group 4: China's Lunar Program - In contrast to the challenges faced by NASA, China's lunar exploration program is progressing steadily, with plans for a manned lunar landing by 2030 [8]. - China's advancements include successful tests of the Long March 10 rocket and ongoing development of various lunar mission components [8].

Core Points - NASA announced it will open the U.S. lunar landing contract to other bidders due to delays in SpaceX's Starship lunar lander program, paving the way for competitors like Blue Origin to participate in the upcoming astronaut moon landing missions [1][2] - NASA is under pressure to accelerate its Artemis lunar program, especially with China's goal of manned moon landing by 2030 and the U.S. aiming to complete Artemis 3 by 2027, leaving only two years until the scheduled landing date [1][2] - The contract adjustment signifies a major shift in NASA's lunar strategy, as SpaceX was initially awarded a $4.4 billion contract in 2021 to complete the lunar landing by 2027, but this timeline is now in doubt due to other priorities [1][2] Company Summaries - SpaceX has achieved "extraordinary" technical milestones but is currently behind schedule, with Elon Musk emphasizing the rapid development pace of SpaceX compared to other aerospace giants [2] - Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander project has gained attention, with the company signing a $3 billion contract with NASA in 2023 for subsequent Artemis missions, following protests against NASA's 2021 decision to select only SpaceX [2][3] - NASA has requested both SpaceX and Blue Origin to submit accelerated lunar landing plans by October 29 and is seeking proposals from the entire commercial space industry to explore ways to expedite the lunar landing timeline [3] Industry Context - The Artemis program is a multi-billion dollar initiative aimed not only at returning to the moon but also at establishing a long-term lunar base, with Artemis 2 planned for a 10-day round trip to the moon involving systems from Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin, expected to launch in April 2026 [3] - The contract adjustment coincides with NASA's reinitiation of the permanent administrator nomination process, with billionaire entrepreneur Jared Isaacman, a close associate of Musk, negotiating to regain his nomination that was revoked by Trump earlier this year [3]

Core Points - The Trump administration's proposed budget for NASA for fiscal year 2026 includes a significant reduction of approximately 25%, from $24.8 billion to $18.8 billion, while the defense budget increases by 13% to a historic high of $1.01 trillion [1][2] - The budget shift indicates a strategic focus on manned missions to Mars, with $1 billion allocated specifically for Mars exploration, while other NASA projects will face cuts and restructuring [2][3] - Major adjustments to the Artemis program are expected, including the potential retirement of the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft, which have been criticized for their high costs and delays [3][5] Budget Cuts and Impacts - The budget for space and Earth sciences, as well as mission support, will see a nearly 50% reduction, dropping from $7.325 billion to $3.899 billion [6] - Planetary science funding will decrease from $2.7 billion to $1.929 billion, with the Mars sample return mission being canceled due to budget overruns and delays [6][12] - Earth science funding will be cut by over 50%, with the new generation land satellite project being entirely canceled [6][12] International Cooperation and Competition - The cancellation of the Lunar Gateway project and other international collaborations raises concerns about the U.S. losing its leadership in space exploration [12][13] - The shift towards commercial space companies like SpaceX for future missions may disrupt traditional partnerships and lead to a more fragmented global space landscape [10][15] - Critics argue that the budget cuts will hinder international cooperation and alter the competitive dynamics in the global space industry [15] Commercial Space Sector - The budget cuts for NASA may benefit private space companies, as funding for Mars missions is expected to flow towards commercial launch providers [8][10] - SpaceX is positioned to take over many of the roles previously held by traditional aerospace contractors, with its Starship system being more cost-effective than NASA's SLS [10][11] - The reliance on fixed-price contracts for commercial projects may challenge traditional defense contractors while benefiting companies like SpaceX [11] Scientific Research and Development - The significant budget reductions are expected to limit NASA's scientific research capabilities, with major projects facing termination [7][12] - The cuts could lead to a loss of talent in the aerospace sector, as funding shortages may drive scientists and researchers away from NASA [7] - The overall impact on scientific data and research output could slow advancements in understanding the universe [15]