Core Viewpoint - The recent plunge in the domestic non-ferrous metal market reflects deep-seated challenges faced by the industry, driven by multiple long-term factors [1] Group 1: Small Metals Sector - The small metals sector, particularly manganese silicon, experienced a significant drop, with futures contracts plummeting 4.95%, a daily decline of 308 yuan, reaching a new low of 5910 yuan/ton [3] - Tungsten and cobalt indices also fell by 3.55% and 2.51% respectively, indicating accelerated capital outflow from the small metals sector [3] - The previous rise in manganese silicon prices by 15% due to steel production cuts was reversed due to lower-than-expected actual demand, leading to concentrated profit-taking and subsequent market collapse [3] Group 2: Industrial Metals Sector - The industrial metals sector saw widespread declines, with copper futures breaking the psychological barrier of 78,000 yuan/ton, closing at 78,110 yuan/ton, down 960 yuan or 1.21% [5] - Aluminum prices fell to 20,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%, while zinc and nickel also experienced significant drops [5] - The overall performance of the industrial metals sector has been notably weaker than the industrial product index, with supply-demand imbalances particularly pronounced in the aluminum market [5] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector was not spared, with silver prices dropping significantly more than gold, with silver futures falling 2.04% compared to a 0.36% decline in gold [5] - The disparity in price movements between gold and silver highlights increasing internal differentiation within the precious metals market [5] Group 4: Market Sentiment and External Pressures - The market sentiment is low due to multiple pressures, including a 50% tariff on imported copper products from the U.S., weak downstream demand, and accelerated capital withdrawal, with a net outflow of 19.6 billion yuan in a single day [6] - Although domestic copper inventories decreased by 13.17%, this was primarily due to reduced imports rather than a recovery in consumption [6] - The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49.7 but remains below the expansion threshold, indicating ongoing challenges in traditional industries [6] Group 5: Structural Issues and External Shocks - The non-ferrous metal export value increased by 29.1% in the first half of the year, mainly driven by gold, while the trade volume between China and the U.S. fell by 11% due to trade frictions [7] - Profits in the mining sector grew by 41.7%, while processing sector profits declined by 0.4%, indicating a concentration of profits in upstream resources [7] - The government's stringent carbon reduction targets for the electrolytic aluminum industry further squeeze profit margins, particularly for small smelting enterprises [7] - Short-term demand expectations are negatively impacted by the decline in photovoltaic installations and reduced subsidies for home appliance replacements, despite long-term demand prospects in the new energy sector [7]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 55, 2025) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - EUA has re - linked with TTF, and its price has rebounded significantly. The report suggests interval operation, with a pressure level of €75 and a support level of €66 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 66.71 euros/ton (-0.13%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.55 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The closing price of EUA futures is 70.1 euros/ton (2.94%), and the trading volume is 35,600 lots (0.05) [2] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct interval operations, with a pressure level of €75 and a support level of €66 [2] Core Logic - **Likely Positive Factors**: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine may bring geopolitical risk premiums; new sanctions on Russia by US senators; European major stock indices closed higher [2] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Trump's "Freedom Day" tariff plan may suppress the European economy; the end of the heating season and increased renewable energy generation are unfavorable to carbon prices; the EU may weaken its 2040 climate goals; Finland will close a coal - fired power plant [2][3]