Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, with EU and China prices reaching $2,500 and $2,960 per ton respectively, marking increases of 39% and 60% since the beginning of 2025 [1][2] - The profit margin for SAF in China is calculated to exceed 4,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong profitability in the sector [1] - The tightening supply of SAF is driven by the upcoming EU and UK verification of a 2% SAF blending ratio, alongside maintenance shutdowns at major production facilities like NESTE [2] Group 2 - The implementation of the RED III legislation in the EU starting in 2026 will raise carbon reduction targets and eliminate the double carbon credit policy for biodiesel produced from used cooking oil (UCO), leading to increased demand for biodiesel and UCO [3] - The projected demand for biodiesel produced from UCO in the EU is expected to rise significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase from 3.74 million tons in 2025 to an additional 4 million tons in 2026 [3] - The maritime sector is also expected to see increased demand for biodiesel, with new regulations requiring a shift towards electric or 100% biofuel-powered vessels by 2030 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent plunge in the domestic non-ferrous metal market reflects deep-seated challenges faced by the industry, driven by multiple long-term factors [1] Group 1: Small Metals Sector - The small metals sector, particularly manganese silicon, experienced a significant drop, with futures contracts plummeting 4.95%, a daily decline of 308 yuan, reaching a new low of 5910 yuan/ton [3] - Tungsten and cobalt indices also fell by 3.55% and 2.51% respectively, indicating accelerated capital outflow from the small metals sector [3] - The previous rise in manganese silicon prices by 15% due to steel production cuts was reversed due to lower-than-expected actual demand, leading to concentrated profit-taking and subsequent market collapse [3] Group 2: Industrial Metals Sector - The industrial metals sector saw widespread declines, with copper futures breaking the psychological barrier of 78,000 yuan/ton, closing at 78,110 yuan/ton, down 960 yuan or 1.21% [5] - Aluminum prices fell to 20,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%, while zinc and nickel also experienced significant drops [5] - The overall performance of the industrial metals sector has been notably weaker than the industrial product index, with supply-demand imbalances particularly pronounced in the aluminum market [5] Group 3: Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector was not spared, with silver prices dropping significantly more than gold, with silver futures falling 2.04% compared to a 0.36% decline in gold [5] - The disparity in price movements between gold and silver highlights increasing internal differentiation within the precious metals market [5] Group 4: Market Sentiment and External Pressures - The market sentiment is low due to multiple pressures, including a 50% tariff on imported copper products from the U.S., weak downstream demand, and accelerated capital withdrawal, with a net outflow of 19.6 billion yuan in a single day [6] - Although domestic copper inventories decreased by 13.17%, this was primarily due to reduced imports rather than a recovery in consumption [6] - The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49.7 but remains below the expansion threshold, indicating ongoing challenges in traditional industries [6] Group 5: Structural Issues and External Shocks - The non-ferrous metal export value increased by 29.1% in the first half of the year, mainly driven by gold, while the trade volume between China and the U.S. fell by 11% due to trade frictions [7] - Profits in the mining sector grew by 41.7%, while processing sector profits declined by 0.4%, indicating a concentration of profits in upstream resources [7] - The government's stringent carbon reduction targets for the electrolytic aluminum industry further squeeze profit margins, particularly for small smelting enterprises [7] - Short-term demand expectations are negatively impacted by the decline in photovoltaic installations and reduced subsidies for home appliance replacements, despite long-term demand prospects in the new energy sector [7]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 55, 2025) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - EUA has re - linked with TTF, and its price has rebounded significantly. The report suggests interval operation, with a pressure level of €75 and a support level of €66 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price is 66.71 euros/ton (-0.13%), and the bid coverage ratio is 1.55 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The closing price of EUA futures is 70.1 euros/ton (2.94%), and the trading volume is 35,600 lots (0.05) [2] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct interval operations, with a pressure level of €75 and a support level of €66 [2] Core Logic - **Likely Positive Factors**: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine may bring geopolitical risk premiums; new sanctions on Russia by US senators; European major stock indices closed higher [2] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Trump's "Freedom Day" tariff plan may suppress the European economy; the end of the heating season and increased renewable energy generation are unfavorable to carbon prices; the EU may weaken its 2040 climate goals; Finland will close a coal - fired power plant [2][3]