投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GERING 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0021177 卢钉毅 2025/8/20 从业资格号: F03101843 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 集 | 现值 | 1460 | 1193 | 1820 | 1106 | 2279 | 1759 | | | 前値 | 1490 | 1201 | 1823 | 1082 | 2792 | 1961 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -1.98% | -0.62% | -0.16% | 2.22% | -18.37% | -10.30% | | मि 1E | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | 现值 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of shipping derivatives basically peaked at the end of July. It is expected to decline slowly until late August and then the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract game is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October. The strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profits due to recent large pullbacks) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both declined. SCFI dropped by 3.30%, CCFI by 3.23%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 3.50%, SCFIS - US West by 1.31%, SCFI - US East by 6.48%, SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 0.53%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 3.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean by 4.35% [3]. - **Contract Index**: All contract indices declined. EC2506 dropped by 3.41%, EC2508 by 0.81%, EC2510 by 2.97%, EC2512 by 2.63%, EC2602 by 3.09%, and EC2604 by 4.47% [3]. - **Position**: For positions, EC2606 increased by 32, while EC2508 decreased by 724, EC2410 by 3056, EC2412 by 45, EC2602 by 77, and EC2604 by 184 [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: The 10 - 12 spread increased by 2.1 to - 267.2, the 12 - 2 spread increased by 1.6 to 207.6, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 16.3 to 368.2 [3]. Market News - USTR Greer hopes for positive progress in China - related trade but does not expect a major breakthrough. Trump's trade team also anticipates no major breakthrough in China negotiations. The EU - China summit commemorated the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations, with the meeting period shortened from two days to one at China's request, reflecting escalating tensions. The US - China trade negotiation team met in Stockholm, and both sides expressed the importance of stable economic and trade relations and the intention to continue consultations [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - term is affected by the continuous decline in airlines' prices in early August. The US - EU - China tariff talks may provide emotional support, but the outcome of the China - US talks is not expected to be better than market expectations, and the probability of postponed or over 20% tariffs is higher [7]. - The spot price basically peaked at the end of July. Airlines continued to use the late - July freight rates in early August but gradually lowered them as the booking time approached. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the high - capacity deployment in early August weakened the effect of the domestic cargo rolling pool. Spot prices are expected to peak at the end of July or early August, decline slowly until late August, and then the decline rate will increase. The main focus of the 10 - contract is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1593, down 3.30% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1261, down 3.23%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 3.50%, SCFIS - US West by 1.31%, SCFI - US East by 6.48%, SCFI - Northwest Europe by 0.53%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe by 3.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean by 4.35% [5]. - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., the current values and their changes compared to the previous values are presented. For example, EC2506 is currently at 1493.6, down 1.61% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current and previous positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2508, etc., and their changes are given. For instance, the current position of EC2606 is 832, with an increase compared to the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The current and previous values of monthly spreads such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4, and their changes are provided. For example, the 10 - 12 spread is currently 680.4, down 4.7 from the previous value [5]. Market Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2510 and far - month contracts have seen a significant increase recently. The reasons include the change of the main contract from 2508 to 2510, better - than - expected spot market conditions and European port congestion, and some influence from geopolitical factors. The current situation of the European line is stable reality and weak expectation, and the spot price is expected to enter an arc - top trend from late July to early August. [7][8][9] - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1647, a previous value of 1733, and a decline of 4.98%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1304, a previous value of 1314, and a decline of 0.78%. Other regional indices also show different degrees of rise and fall. [4] - **EC Contracts**: Different EC contracts have different current values, previous values, and changes in prices and positions. For example, the EC2508 contract has a current value of 2291.9, a previous value of 2265.9, and an increase of 1.15%, with a position change of - 879. [4] Trade News - The US has reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods, while US goods entering Indonesia are tax - exempt. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on the EU next month, and the EU is negotiating and drafting counter - measures. India is seeking lower tariffs in trade talks with the US, and Trump hinted at a "pretty good agreement". The deadline for sanctions against Russia may come earlier than 50 days. [5] Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short - term, there may still be a rush to ship in July. After the deep discount on the futures market is repaired, investors are advised not to chase high prices. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread. [9][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current ECO8 contract is trading at a discount to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the potential logic of scenario two. This year, European route trading tends to follow a cycle of "front - running - logic reinforcement - losses." It is recommended to value the "fault - tolerance" space of far - month contracts, formulate far - month positive spreading strategies based on historical delivery data, and avoid over - relying on short - term sentiment. The core is to first grasp marginal changes and then determine the trend direction. The 12 - 4 positive spread should be held [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1870, down 10.47% from the previous value; the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is 1342, up 8.00%. SCFI - US West is 2772, down 32.72%; SCFIS - US West is 2083, down 28.37%; SCFI - US East is 5352, down 20.65%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1835, down 0.49%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1937, up 14.14%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3063, down 3.98% [4] - **Forward Contracts**: For EC series contracts, such as EC2506, the current value is 1888.1, up 0.27% from the previous value; EC2508 is 1772.0, down 5.49%. In terms of positions, EC2506's current position is 2776, a decrease of 585 from the previous value; EC2508's current position is 44791, a decrease of 2262 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The current value of the 10 - 12 monthly spread is 467.4, a decrease of 37.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is - 152.9, an increase of 7.2; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 306.5, a decrease of 13.8 [4] 2. Market Review - **Spot Market**: In late June, leading airlines were eager to raise prices. COSCO's offline quote was 4200, CMA's was 4250, ONE's was 3000, MSC proposed a price increase to 3900 with an offline price of 3260. The spot freight rate continued to rise this week, and the quotes for European base ports in late June reached 2800 - 3200 US dollars/40 - foot container. The price increase is expected to continue until mid - to - late July. In early July, WSK reported a price of 3400, HPL reported 4350, CMA reported 4650, and ONE reported 4000 [7] - **Futures Market**: Last week, the US route freight rate declined, but the European route did not follow due to its own peak - season pattern. European route futures showed a "front - running" characteristic. For the European route freight rate from July to August, there are three scenarios: the overflow of US route capacity, shipping companies controlling capacity to stabilize prices, and interference from unexpected factors [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a mixed performance with some indices rising and others falling. The spot market for shipping is showing signs of price increases in late June, and the futures market is experiencing upward fluctuations, especially in the near - month contracts. A 12 - 4 positive spread strategy is recommended to be held [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Rate Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2240, up 8.09% from the previous value of 2073. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is currently 1155, a 3.34% increase from 1118. Other routes like SCFI - West US, SCFIS - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also show significant increases, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe having the highest increase of 29.62% from 1252 to 1623 [2]. 3.2 Forward Contracts (EC) - **Price and Position Changes**: For forward contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., prices show mixed trends. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1932.0, down 0.85% from 1948.6. In terms of positions, EC2508's position has increased by 1367 to 45494, while EC2506's position has decreased by 535 to 7268 [2]. 3.3 Market News - **Tariff Adjustments**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [6]. - **Export Data**: In May, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Exports to the US were 28.819 billion US dollars, a 34.5% year - on - year decrease with a larger decline than in April. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by 14.8% and 12% respectively [6]. - **Sino - US Trade Talks**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9. Both sides expressed that the talks were going well, and the international community hopes that the talks can resolve differences and strengthen cooperation [7]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: In late June, shipping companies are eager to raise prices. The market average transaction price in the first week of June was 23508 US dollars/FEU, and the high - end (75th percentile) transaction price was 27000 US dollars/FEU. Although the Far - East to Nordic route is not directly affected by Sino - US tariffs, market sentiment can push up freight rates due to potential capacity shortages [8]. - **Futures Market**: The price increases in the spot market have stimulated the futures market to fluctuate upward. Near - month contracts (June and August) are more affected, with the August contract having greater elasticity, while more distant contracts follow fundamental logic [8][14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - Container throughput growth is steady, while bulk cargo throughput is gradually stabilizing [2] - Overall throughput performance is stable, maintaining a "Positive" rating for the shipping and port sector [7] Summary by Sections Overview: National Import and Export Total and Cargo Throughput Situation - In the first four months of 2025, the national import and export total reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. The import total was 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%, while the export total was 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5% [4][14] - Coastal major ports' cargo throughput reached 3.702 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [4][31] Container: Shipping Rates and Container Throughput Situation - From January to April 2025, coastal major ports' container throughput reached 9.88 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [4][41] - As of June 6, 2025, the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1154.98 points, down 22.79% year-on-year, while the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2240.35 points, down 26.42% year-on-year [35][36] Liquid Bulk: Oil Shipping Rates and Crude Oil Throughput Situation - As of June 6, 2025, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 951 points, down 24.94% year-on-year [43] - From January to April 2025, crude oil imports reached 183 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [51] Dry Bulk: Shipping Rates and Iron Ore, Coal Throughput Situation - As of June 6, 2025, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1633 points, down 13.18% year-on-year [59] - From January to April 2025, iron ore throughput at major ports reached 450 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.07% [65] Monthly Throughput Situation of Key Port Listed Companies - In April 2025, Shanghai Port's cargo throughput was 0.51 billion tons, with container throughput of 450.10 thousand TEUs, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.40% and 7.65% respectively [76]