地缘端：加沙停火第一阶段协议正式生效满一个月。以色列政府和哈马斯不断指责对方违反停火协议，协议执行 波折频现，协议的脆弱性愈发凸显。人们担忧持久和平并未真的来临。中国国际问题研究院助理研究员李子昕表 示，虽然说第一阶段停火成功实现了全部仍然活着的以色列在押人员返回，以及大部分离世在押人员遗体的归还， 以色列也释放了一定数量的巴勒斯坦的在押人员，但目前第二阶段停火协议仍然是"遥遥无期"。双方在关键的问 题上几乎没有共识和妥协的余地，如果不能够顺利推进，后续停火被迫终止，恐怕也是在所难免。 动态供给：11月份剩余4周周均运力24.65万TEU，WEEK46/47/48/49周运力分别为15.11/29.65/26.89/26.94万TEU。 12月份月度周均运力33.88万TEU，WEEK50/51/52/53周运力分别为30.74/35.03/32.66/37.1万TEU。11月份共计10个 空班和1个TBN（其中MSC/PA联盟4个空班，双子星联盟1个空班，OA联盟5个空班，OA联盟的1个TBN后续预计 均转为空班）。12月份共计3个TBN。 12月合约:距离交割较远，12月合约交易更多关注节奏问题，预期和现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters, but the third quarter showed signs of recovery with improved profit margins due to rising shipping rates [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 4.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 947 million yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.20 yuan, down 42.81% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.497 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.10% and a year-on-year increase of 7.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 377 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.47% but a year-on-year increase of 31.97% [1]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 improved to 25.2%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.8 percentage points, although it was down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Market Trends - Since entering Q4, the shipping rates for refined oil in the Asia-Pacific region have decreased month-on-month but have shown significant year-on-year growth. In October, the TC7/Pacific route average rates fell by 12.8% and 13.2% compared to September, but increased by 18.1% and 8.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The supply of MR vessels remains tight, with current orders accounting for 14.6% of capacity, and vessels over 20 years old making up 16% of the fleet. Stricter sanctions on shadow fleets by Europe and the U.S. are expected to further limit effective MR vessel capacity [2]. Corporate Actions - The company announced plans to use surplus reserves to offset losses on the parent company's balance sheet, pending approval from the shareholders' meeting. If approved, this will enable the company to improve its dividend capacity, which is viewed positively for valuation recovery [2]. - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, having bought back 1.56% of its shares by the end of September [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The current profit forecast and valuation remain unchanged, with the stock price corresponding to 11.4 times and 10.0 times the earnings for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 3.7 yuan per share, suggesting a potential upside of 16.7% from the current stock price [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to be oscillating strongly [9] - Arbitrage: None [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of October, freight rates were slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase notices for the second half of November will be launched [1] - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer. Focus on the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. For the December contract, as it is far from delivery, trading focuses on the rhythm. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [5][6][7] - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 12, 2025, 210 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.704 million TEU [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of October 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures was 64,481.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 59,281.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1463.40, 1142.00, 1306.60, 1450.20, 1120.60, and 1708.60 respectively [7] II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping alliances show different price trends and price increase notices. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased from week 43 to week 44. HPL also issued price increase notices. Many other alliances like MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance also have price adjustments and price increase notices [1][2] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining three weeks of October was 276,100 TEU. The monthly average weekly capacity in November was 302,800 TEU, and in December was 287,700 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3] IV. Supply Chain - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed sanctions on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Since HMM and Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. have the same top - level controlling party, whether HMM's operations will be affected is unknown [4] V. Demand and European Economy - No specific content about demand and European economy is provided in the text other than the general background information related to the shipping market, such as the actions of shipping companies to adjust supply to maintain freight rates for the next - year long - term agreement negotiations [6]

Report Title - Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] Report Date - October 14, 2025 [5] Data Source - Clarksons, Wind [5] Core Viewpoints - In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargo, and freight rates dropped to $1300/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a $400/FEU increase for late October. However, in October, both supply and demand declined, and it is likely to return to the off - season market. Currently, the mainstream quotation range for late October is between $2000 - $2200. Subsequently, European routes will focus on price stabilization and support during the transition between off - and peak - seasons. Shipping companies' price increases may be difficult to implement, and it is necessary to closely monitor the implementation of price increases, peak - season cargo volume, capacity deployment, and shipping companies' attitude towards price support [8]. - The preliminary progress of the Gaza peace talks creates a theoretical possibility for the resumption of Red Sea shipping, but the shipping industry still needs to face "three hurdles": the stability of agreement implementation, the conditions for the Houthi armed forces to lift the blockade, and the sustainable guarantee of route safety. Before the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of shippers". The resumption of the Suez route will probably be carried out in a phased and verification - based manner, and the second quarter of next year will be the first substantial observation node [8]. Key Data Freight Rate Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI Composite Index | 1115 | 1198 | -6.97% | | CCFI Index | 1087 | 1120 | -2.93% | | SCFI - US West | 1460 | 1636 | -10.76% | | SCFIS - US West | 862 | 876 | -1.60% | | SCFI - US East | 2385 | 2557 | -6.73% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 971 | 1052 | -7.70% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1031 | 1046 | -1.43% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 1485 | 1638 | -9.34% | [5] Futures Contracts Present Value, Previous Value, and Change Rate | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1268.0 | 1248.6 | 1.55% | | EC2608 | 1395.8 | 1393.6 | 0.16% | | EC2510 | 1129.4 | 1121.1 | 0.74% | | EC2512 | 1562.5 | 1571.0 | -0.54% | | EC5602 | 1359.9 | 1338.0 | 1.64% | | EC2604 | 1098.5 | 1069.0 | 2.76% | [5] Open Interest | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Change in Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2606 Open Interest | 1483 | 1516 | (33) | | EC2608 Open Interest | 1122 | 1041 | 81 | | EC2410 Open Interest | 16148 | 18352 | (2204) | | EC2412 Open Interest | 28771 | 28056 | 715 | | EC2602 Open Interest | 9376 | 9768 | (392) | | EC2604 Open Interest | 12825 | 12963 | (138) | [5] Monthly Spread | Spread | Present Value | Previous Value | Change in Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 - 12 | -433.1 | -449.9 | 16.8 | | 12 - 2 | 202.6 | 233.0 | (30.4) | | 12 - 4 | 464.0 | 502.0 | (38.0) | [5] Spot Prices - GEMINI: The average of the alliance is around 1500. Maersk's wk40 opening price is 1400, and HPL - SPOT is 150 [8]. - OA: The average of the alliance is around 1550. CMA is 1700 (off - line 1500), OOCL is 1600, and EMC is 1700 (off - line 1500) [8]. - PA: The average of the alliance is around 1400. ONE is 1600, HMM is 1600, and IYM is 1300 [8]. - MSC: Reported 1600 in October [8]. Strategies - Go for a long position in the 10 - 12 spread [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is currently in a state of flux, with spot freight rates on the trans - Pacific route falling and carriers taking measures to stabilize prices. The European route is expected to experience a transition between the off - season and peak season, and the implementation of shipping companies' price increases is uncertain. A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [4][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both declined. SCFI dropped by 6.97% to 1115, and CCFI decreased by 2.93% to 1087. Rates on various routes such as the US West, US East, Northwest Europe, and Mediterranean also saw significant drops, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe falling 17.15% to 1193 and the SCFI - Mediterranean down 9.34% to 1485 [5]. - **Contract Freight Index**: Most of the contract freight indices showed a slight decline, except for EC2506 which had a 0.08% increase to 1483.5. EC2608 decreased by 0.66% to 1617.2, EC2510 dropped by 2.90% to 1139.0, etc. [5]. - **Position and Spread**: Positions in some contracts decreased, like EC2606 position decreased by 14 to 938 and EC2608 by 14 to 542. The 10 - 12 spread decreased by 27.9 to - 638.0, the 12 - 2 spread increased by 5.1 to 92.0, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 10.4 to 508.4 [5]. 3.2 Market News and Its Impact - Trans - Pacific shipping companies are increasing capacity cuts to stop the decline in freight rates. Spot freight rates on the east - west trans - Pacific route have fallen below the fixed contract prices signed by medium - sized retailers in May. In the next four weeks, trans - Pacific liner companies will accelerate the implementation of blank sailings to stabilize falling spot freight rates [6]. 3.3 EC Market Review - **Market Trend**: The market is in a state of oscillation. The main reason is that CM4 has raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK's unchanged freight rate in the second week of October has increased the expectation of a halt in the decline. MSK has announced a price increase of 400 for the late - October freight rate to 1800 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the GEMINI October upper - half price dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. In late September, the FMK freight rate center was around 1500 [7]. 3.4 Market Logic and Strategy - **Logic**: In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargo, and the freight rate once dropped to 1300 dollars/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a 400 - dollar/FEU price increase for late October. However, due to the decline in both supply and demand in October, it is likely to return to the off - season market. The European route will focus on price stabilization and support during the transition between the off - season and peak season, and the implementation of shipping companies' price increases is uncertain [8]. - **Strategy**: A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of October, and attention should be paid to the actual transaction prices during this period [1]. - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to Maersk's first - week quotation in the second half of October. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The freight rate center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. HPL and CMA have attempted to raise prices in the second half of October. If the price increase in the last week is successful, the final three - phase settlement price will correspond to a spot price of approximately $1450/1450/1950/FEU, equivalent to about 1130 points in SCFIS; if the price increase fails, the final settlement price may be below 1000 points [4]. - The December contract is far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Ship companies may adjust supply to keep freight rates high during the fourth - quarter holiday season. However, there are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. If US - bound ships are redirected to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices. The trading rhythm of the December contract is expected to involve first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this cycle until delivery. Given the frequent rhythm changes, investors can try with a light position [5][6]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate weakly, and for arbitrage, it is advisable to short the October contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes decreased from Week 40 to Week 41; HPL - SPOT's price increased in the second half of October and the first half of November. Some companies' prices remained stable in the first half of October, while CMA attempted to raise the price for the Shanghai - Antwerp route in the second half of October [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas has drafted a letter to US President Trump, requesting a 60 - day cease - fire in exchange for the immediate release of half of the hostages in Gaza. The letter is expected to be delivered this week [2]. 3.2 Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Weekly and Monthly Average Capacity**: The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports was 272,600 TEU in October and 285,200 TEU in November. There were 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. - **Ship Deliveries**: 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 62 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 935,000 TEU and 8 ships over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [7]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 22, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 85,743 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 65,644 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., are provided [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 19, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1052/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $1636/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $2557/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1254.92 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1193.64 points [7]. 3.4 Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to short the October contract [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate center continued to decline in the first half of October, and HPL attempted to raise the price in the second half of the month. For the October contract, it is relatively safe to allocate short positions, but the key lies in the downward space. The uncertainty lies in the quotes for the second half of October. If HPL's price increase is successful, the estimated ceiling of the final delivery settlement price of the October contract is likely to be around 1100 points; otherwise, it may be close to 1000 points [4]. - For the December contract, the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long positions can be gradually allocated to trade the expected price increases by shipping companies in November and December. However, due to the current large premium of the December contract futures price over the spot price, investors should take long positions in the December contract with a light position [6]. - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price trends. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes decreased from WEEK39 to WEEK41; HPL - SPOT tried to raise the price in the second half of October. In the MSC + Premier Alliance, MSC and ONE's prices remained stable in the first half of October compared to the second half of September, and YML's price decreased [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel launched a large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called for the evacuation of Palestinians from Gaza City, with nearly 400,000 people having left so far [2]. - **Capacity and Empty Sailing**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European base ports from China was 272,600 TEU, with 15 empty sailings and 1 TBN. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity was 283,000 TEU, with 4 empty sailings and 6 TBN. HMM announced a winter suspension plan for the PA alliance on the Asia - Europe route [3]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: It is mainly short - allocated during the off - season. The freight rate center in the first half of October continued to decline to around $1400/FEU (equivalent to about 1000 points on the SCFIS). The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The uncertainty lies in HPL's attempt to raise the price in the second half of October [4]. - **December Contract**: The pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the potential impact of transferring US - bound ships to European routes. The current futures price of the December contract has a large premium over the spot price, so long positions should be taken lightly [6]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 84,867.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 31,831.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., were provided [7]. - **Spot Market**: The SCFI prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) and the SCFIS prices for European and US West routes were given as of relevant dates. The current spot price center is around $1400/FEU [4][6][7]. 3.4 Strategy and Risk - **Strategy**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. - **Risk**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and US economies, a sharp drop in oil prices, unexpected vessel deliveries, insufficient vessel idling, and a good resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upward risks include an economic recovery in Europe and the US, supply chain disruptions, significant capacity reduction by liner companies, and the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to route detours [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The October contract is mainly short - allocated during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to be revised downward. The HPL has announced the price for the second half of October. The price center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1500/FEU (equivalent to about 1050 points on SCFIS). The SCFIS on October 13 is expected to be between 1050 - 1100 points. If other shipping companies follow HPL's lead and keep the prices unchanged, the final delivery settlement price of the October contract will likely be below 1100 points [4]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists in the December contract. There is an opportunity to bet on the price increase expectation in November. However, the current risks include the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the weak demand on the US route. If ships on the US route are transferred to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices [5]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the October contract in an arbitrage strategy [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of September 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 86,848.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 65,208.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1578.80, 1285.00, 1468.70, 1616.70, 1109.70, and 1672.00 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - On September 12, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1154/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $2370/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $3307/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1440.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1349.84 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In October 2025, the monthly average weekly capacity on the China - European base port route was 272,600 TEU, and in November, it was 283,000 TEU. There were 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 4 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HMM has announced the PA alliance's winter suspension plan for the Asia - Europe route [3]. - As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 59 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 886,000 TEU) and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 176,880 TEU) had been delivered [6]. 4. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical instability as Israel has launched a large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, which may impact the shipping supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the US route is weak, with the US NRF estimating that the container import demand from September to December 2025 will be about 20% lower than the same period in 2024. The transfer of US - bound ships to the European route in the fourth quarter may affect European route prices [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate center continues to decline, with the HMM price revised down to $1700/FEU. The 10 - month contract is under downward pressure, and short - allocation is relatively safe, but attention should be paid to the price level at which shipping companies try to stabilize prices. The 12 - month contract follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline. The main contract shows a weak and fluctuating trend, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract at high prices [1][4][5]. - 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries, with 180 ships delivered so far, totaling 1.452 million TEU of capacity [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of September 4, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts is 80,613 lots, and the daily trading volume is 37,244 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are $1518.70, $1247.80, $1443.00, $1607.40, $1300.70, and $1676.00 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show a general downward trend in freight rates. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam prices in weeks 37 and 38 have decreased, and many shipping companies' prices in September and October have also declined. The current 9 - month freight rate center has dropped to around $1900/FEU [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. In September, there are 3 blank sailings, and in October, there are 10 blank sailings and 7 TBNs. HPL has announced two additional ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors, such as the Israeli military's actions in Gaza, may affect the shipping supply chain. The Israeli military is expanding its operations in Gaza, which may lead to potential impacts on shipping routes and trade [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the demand for container imports in the US from September to December 2025 will decline by about 20% compared to the same period in 2024. The demand in the US line is weak, and if ships from the US line are transferred to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the freight rate center continues to decline. In a normal year, the freight rate in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rate center in September has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the short - allocation of the 10 - month contract is relatively safe, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4]. - The off - season and peak - season pattern of the 12 - month contract still exists, and the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. In a normal year, the Far East - Europe price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long - allocation can be gradually carried out later to trade the expected freight rate increase by shipping companies in November and December [5]. - The main contract fluctuates weakly, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different alliances and shipping companies have different price quotations for different routes and time periods. For example, the price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route in week 37 is $1175/1970, and in week 38 is $1035/1730. HPL's SPOT price for the first half of September, the second half of September, and the first half of October is $1085/1735 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 2, local time, the Israeli military chief of staff said that the Israeli army had entered new areas in Gaza City and would increase its operations and strike intensity [2]. - **Empty Voyages**: MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced empty voyages during the Chinese Golden Week. The initial capacity involved in the four voyages of MSC is approximately 59,000 TEU, and the AE1 route of the Gemini Alliance in week 41 is also empty. The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in September is 290,700 TEU, and in October is 268,000 TEU [3]. - **Overtime Ships**: HPL has announced information on two overtime ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU [3]. 2. Futures Prices As of September 3, 2025, the total contract positions of the container shipping index for European routes are 82,665.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 40,534.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1534.00, EC2604 is 1255.10, EC2606 is 1441.10, EC2508 is 1609.50, EC2510 is 1323.00, and EC2512 is 1701.20 [6]. 3. Spot Prices On August 29, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1481.00/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $1923.00/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $2866.00/FEU. On September 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1773.60 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1013.90 points [6]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU. Among them, 58 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 873,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies.