【EC】 行情综述:偏弱震荡 逻辑:现货瑞延续节前紧平衡态势,头部船司前期揽货已覆盖至 3 月中旬，叠加停航控舱力度加码,流通舱位持续 点 偏紧。节后下游工厂复工处于爬坡阶段但至少要到3月中旬，核心出口品类暂无集中放量，则需托底为主:船司挺价 i 策略出现分化,3 月上旬涨价落地难度较大，现货运价维持高位震荡，无深度回调压力。期货盘面周二大幅走强受 论 益于地缘情绪及航运板块共振。市场交易核心聚焦运价是否会继续下行及3月中下旬喊涨可能性。 ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0021177 卢钊毅 2026/2/27 从业资格号: F03101843 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 中国出口集装箱运价 上海H回集装箱运价 运价指数 SCFI-美西 SCFIS-美西 SCFI-美东 SCFI-西北欧 指数CCFI 综合指数SCFI 现值 1251 1787 1155 1088 2524 1361 in in in 前值 1122 1403 1267 1801 1101 2530 涨跌幅 -1.19% -0.7 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|航运策略⽇报 2026-02-26 EMC线上跟随调降至2530美元/FEU，美伊 开启第三轮间接谈判 今日市场以降价预期为主导。现货端3月MSK再度下调降价策略激 进，而PA或跌幅稍缓，OCEAN运价较2月下旬小幅抬升100美元/FEU左 右，报价出现分化，航运公司仍在其他航线试图挺价。3月下半月仍 面临运力回升、船司喊涨等波动风险，关注光伏等产品抢运实际兑现 节奏，而市场对5-6月运价预期仍相对近月更乐观。明日需关注美伊 第三轮间接谈判对地缘情绪影响；后续仍需观察船司是否有新的宣涨 函及现货市场波动方向。 昨日MSK开舱3月第二周运价，环比调降100美元/FEU；叠加昨日O OCL线上运价调降，带动市场交易现货运价涨价难兑现，今日市场以 降价预期为主导。ONE、YML3月上半月或呈现一定缓跌迹象。04合约 淡季预期主导，跌幅高于远月合约。04主力合约收于1236点，跌5. 13%，持仓总量增超800手；05合约收于1414.8点，跌2.7%，持仓量共 395手；06合约收于1621.1点跌3.3%，持仓量小幅增仓287手，位于1. 66万手；0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's outlook is "oscillation" [4] Core Views - The spot market has a good loading preference, and the freight rate center continues to rise. The 02 contract is at a premium to the 12 contract, with a significant increase in the 02 contract, rising trading volume, and increasing positions. The far - month contracts are oscillating, and the 12 contract has a slight decline [1] - The freight rates of some shipping companies in the spot market have adjusted. The geopolitical situation may complicate the second - stage cease - fire negotiations, and there are different stances in the macro - environment. The trading logic is that the shipping company's loading rate remains strong until the end of the year, and the market is optimistic about the implementation of the MSK's price increase plan. There are still expectations for price increases in January, and the 02 contract benefits from early delivery. It is advisable to pay attention to the 02 - 04 positive spread [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Spot Market Freight Rates - GEMINI: The HPL - SPOT NE2/AE1 freight rate in the third week of December dropped to $2235/FEU; the MSK's fourth - week price was $2300/FEU and remained unchanged today [2] - OCEAN: The CMA's freight rate in the first half of December dropped to $2345/FEU, a decrease of $300, the same as the OOCL's $2880/FEU in the first half of December. In the second half, GMA and OOCL are at $2745/FEU and $2530 - 2630/FEU respectively, and the offline price is $2450 - 2600/FEU [2] - PA&MSC: The YML updated the freight rate from December 21 - 31 to $1575/TEU and $2650/FEU, a decrease of $200/FEU compared to last week's announced price, but an increase of $650 compared to the first - half price in December [2] Geopolitical Situation - A Hamas source said they would negotiate on disarmament but would not be forced to give up their guns, asking Israel to withdraw from Gaza and mediators to ensure that Israel does not resume military operations in Gaza. The second - stage cease - fire negotiations may become complicated [2] Macro - environment - The French President expressed a tough stance after returning from a visit to China, criticizing the large trade surplus between China and the EU, while Germany had a positive attitude towards China [3] Trading Logic - By the end of the year, the shipping company's loading rate remains strong. The PA's container goods support its second - half price increase plan. The OCEAN's second - half freight rate is set at $2500/FEU, and the GEMINI's is set at $2300 - 2400/FEU, with the freight rate center rising by about $200/FEU compared to the first half [3] - The market is more optimistic about the implementation of MSK's plan to raise the price to $3500/FEU. MSK has announced a PSS for the Mediterranean route. Attention should be paid to whether it will push up the Nordic PSS to boost sentiment and benefit the near - month contracts [3] - Due to less delayed capacity in the 52nd week and the long - term contract negotiation period, there are still expectations for price increases in January and mid - January. The market demand before the Spring Festival in January is strong, and the 02 contract benefits from early delivery. There is a differentiation in the logic between near - and far - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 02 - 04 positive spread [3] Contract Performance - As of the close, the 02 contract closed at 1665.2 points, up 3.41%, with an increase of 669 in open interest; the 04 contract closed at 1080.7 points, up 0.6%, with a decrease of 159 in open interest; the 06 contract closed at 1225.6 points, up 0.9%; the 12 contract closed slightly lower at 1655 points, down 0.4%, with a decrease of 114 in open interest [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate entered a correction period in the second half of November, and attention should be paid to Maersk's price offer in the last week of November [1]. - The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas is fragile, and the second - stage cease - fire agreement is still "out of reach." [3] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the overall valuation support is constantly rising. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [4][5]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in November and December. For example, Maersk's 46 - week quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam is 1335/2230, and it has issued a price increase letter for December to 2080/3200 [1]. - Geopolitical situation: The first - stage cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been in effect for one month, but its implementation has been full of twists and turns, and the second - stage agreement is still uncertain [3]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity in the remaining 4 weeks of November is 246,500 TEU, and the monthly average weekly capacity in December is 338,800 TEU. There are 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 3 TBNs in December [3]. Contract Analysis - 12 - month contract: It focuses on the trading rhythm. The shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level. The price increase expectations and actual implementation will alternate. If each price increase letter lands at about 300 US dollars/FEU for three rounds, the price in the second half of December may reach 3000 US dollars/FEU, and the valuation ceiling of the 12 - month contract may be around 2100 points [4]. - 2026 February contract: There may be a large expectation gap, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. Attention should be paid to how the exchange defines the delivery settlement price [5]. Market Data - As of November 10, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 70,044.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 29,041.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1604.90, EC2604 is 1166.10, etc. [6]. - On November 7, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1323 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2212 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2848 US dollars/FEU. On November 10, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1504.80 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1329.71 points [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: The 12 - month contract will fluctuate. - Arbitrage: None at present.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters, but the third quarter showed signs of recovery with improved profit margins due to rising shipping rates [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 4.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 947 million yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.20 yuan, down 42.81% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.497 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.10% and a year-on-year increase of 7.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 377 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.47% but a year-on-year increase of 31.97% [1]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 improved to 25.2%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.8 percentage points, although it was down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Market Trends - Since entering Q4, the shipping rates for refined oil in the Asia-Pacific region have decreased month-on-month but have shown significant year-on-year growth. In October, the TC7/Pacific route average rates fell by 12.8% and 13.2% compared to September, but increased by 18.1% and 8.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The supply of MR vessels remains tight, with current orders accounting for 14.6% of capacity, and vessels over 20 years old making up 16% of the fleet. Stricter sanctions on shadow fleets by Europe and the U.S. are expected to further limit effective MR vessel capacity [2]. Corporate Actions - The company announced plans to use surplus reserves to offset losses on the parent company's balance sheet, pending approval from the shareholders' meeting. If approved, this will enable the company to improve its dividend capacity, which is viewed positively for valuation recovery [2]. - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, having bought back 1.56% of its shares by the end of September [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The current profit forecast and valuation remain unchanged, with the stock price corresponding to 11.4 times and 10.0 times the earnings for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 3.7 yuan per share, suggesting a potential upside of 16.7% from the current stock price [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to be oscillating strongly [9] - Arbitrage: None [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of October, freight rates were slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase notices for the second half of November will be launched [1] - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer. Focus on the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. For the December contract, as it is far from delivery, trading focuses on the rhythm. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [5][6][7] - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 12, 2025, 210 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.704 million TEU [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of October 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures was 64,481.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 59,281.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1463.40, 1142.00, 1306.60, 1450.20, 1120.60, and 1708.60 respectively [7] II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping alliances show different price trends and price increase notices. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased from week 43 to week 44. HPL also issued price increase notices. Many other alliances like MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance also have price adjustments and price increase notices [1][2] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining three weeks of October was 276,100 TEU. The monthly average weekly capacity in November was 302,800 TEU, and in December was 287,700 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3] IV. Supply Chain - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed sanctions on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Since HMM and Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. have the same top - level controlling party, whether HMM's operations will be affected is unknown [4] V. Demand and European Economy - No specific content about demand and European economy is provided in the text other than the general background information related to the shipping market, such as the actions of shipping companies to adjust supply to maintain freight rates for the next - year long - term agreement negotiations [6]

Report Title - Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] Report Date - October 14, 2025 [5] Data Source - Clarksons, Wind [5] Core Viewpoints - In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargo, and freight rates dropped to $1300/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a $400/FEU increase for late October. However, in October, both supply and demand declined, and it is likely to return to the off - season market. Currently, the mainstream quotation range for late October is between $2000 - $2200. Subsequently, European routes will focus on price stabilization and support during the transition between off - and peak - seasons. Shipping companies' price increases may be difficult to implement, and it is necessary to closely monitor the implementation of price increases, peak - season cargo volume, capacity deployment, and shipping companies' attitude towards price support [8]. - The preliminary progress of the Gaza peace talks creates a theoretical possibility for the resumption of Red Sea shipping, but the shipping industry still needs to face "three hurdles": the stability of agreement implementation, the conditions for the Houthi armed forces to lift the blockade, and the sustainable guarantee of route safety. Before the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of shippers". The resumption of the Suez route will probably be carried out in a phased and verification - based manner, and the second quarter of next year will be the first substantial observation node [8]. Key Data Freight Rate Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI Composite Index | 1115 | 1198 | -6.97% | | CCFI Index | 1087 | 1120 | -2.93% | | SCFI - US West | 1460 | 1636 | -10.76% | | SCFIS - US West | 862 | 876 | -1.60% | | SCFI - US East | 2385 | 2557 | -6.73% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 971 | 1052 | -7.70% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1031 | 1046 | -1.43% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 1485 | 1638 | -9.34% | [5] Futures Contracts Present Value, Previous Value, and Change Rate | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1268.0 | 1248.6 | 1.55% | | EC2608 | 1395.8 | 1393.6 | 0.16% | | EC2510 | 1129.4 | 1121.1 | 0.74% | | EC2512 | 1562.5 | 1571.0 | -0.54% | | EC5602 | 1359.9 | 1338.0 | 1.64% | | EC2604 | 1098.5 | 1069.0 | 2.76% | [5] Open Interest | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Change in Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2606 Open Interest | 1483 | 1516 | (33) | | EC2608 Open Interest | 1122 | 1041 | 81 | | EC2410 Open Interest | 16148 | 18352 | (2204) | | EC2412 Open Interest | 28771 | 28056 | 715 | | EC2602 Open Interest | 9376 | 9768 | (392) | | EC2604 Open Interest | 12825 | 12963 | (138) | [5] Monthly Spread | Spread | Present Value | Previous Value | Change in Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 - 12 | -433.1 | -449.9 | 16.8 | | 12 - 2 | 202.6 | 233.0 | (30.4) | | 12 - 4 | 464.0 | 502.0 | (38.0) | [5] Spot Prices - GEMINI: The average of the alliance is around 1500. Maersk's wk40 opening price is 1400, and HPL - SPOT is 150 [8]. - OA: The average of the alliance is around 1550. CMA is 1700 (off - line 1500), OOCL is 1600, and EMC is 1700 (off - line 1500) [8]. - PA: The average of the alliance is around 1400. ONE is 1600, HMM is 1600, and IYM is 1300 [8]. - MSC: Reported 1600 in October [8]. Strategies - Go for a long position in the 10 - 12 spread [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is currently in a state of flux, with spot freight rates on the trans - Pacific route falling and carriers taking measures to stabilize prices. The European route is expected to experience a transition between the off - season and peak season, and the implementation of shipping companies' price increases is uncertain. A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [4][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both declined. SCFI dropped by 6.97% to 1115, and CCFI decreased by 2.93% to 1087. Rates on various routes such as the US West, US East, Northwest Europe, and Mediterranean also saw significant drops, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe falling 17.15% to 1193 and the SCFI - Mediterranean down 9.34% to 1485 [5]. - **Contract Freight Index**: Most of the contract freight indices showed a slight decline, except for EC2506 which had a 0.08% increase to 1483.5. EC2608 decreased by 0.66% to 1617.2, EC2510 dropped by 2.90% to 1139.0, etc. [5]. - **Position and Spread**: Positions in some contracts decreased, like EC2606 position decreased by 14 to 938 and EC2608 by 14 to 542. The 10 - 12 spread decreased by 27.9 to - 638.0, the 12 - 2 spread increased by 5.1 to 92.0, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 10.4 to 508.4 [5]. 3.2 Market News and Its Impact - Trans - Pacific shipping companies are increasing capacity cuts to stop the decline in freight rates. Spot freight rates on the east - west trans - Pacific route have fallen below the fixed contract prices signed by medium - sized retailers in May. In the next four weeks, trans - Pacific liner companies will accelerate the implementation of blank sailings to stabilize falling spot freight rates [6]. 3.3 EC Market Review - **Market Trend**: The market is in a state of oscillation. The main reason is that CM4 has raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK's unchanged freight rate in the second week of October has increased the expectation of a halt in the decline. MSK has announced a price increase of 400 for the late - October freight rate to 1800 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the GEMINI October upper - half price dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. In late September, the FMK freight rate center was around 1500 [7]. 3.4 Market Logic and Strategy - **Logic**: In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargo, and the freight rate once dropped to 1300 dollars/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a 400 - dollar/FEU price increase for late October. However, due to the decline in both supply and demand in October, it is likely to return to the off - season market. The European route will focus on price stabilization and support during the transition between the off - season and peak season, and the implementation of shipping companies' price increases is uncertain [8]. - **Strategy**: A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of October, and attention should be paid to the actual transaction prices during this period [1]. - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to Maersk's first - week quotation in the second half of October. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The freight rate center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. HPL and CMA have attempted to raise prices in the second half of October. If the price increase in the last week is successful, the final three - phase settlement price will correspond to a spot price of approximately $1450/1450/1950/FEU, equivalent to about 1130 points in SCFIS; if the price increase fails, the final settlement price may be below 1000 points [4]. - The December contract is far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Ship companies may adjust supply to keep freight rates high during the fourth - quarter holiday season. However, there are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. If US - bound ships are redirected to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices. The trading rhythm of the December contract is expected to involve first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this cycle until delivery. Given the frequent rhythm changes, investors can try with a light position [5][6]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate weakly, and for arbitrage, it is advisable to short the October contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes decreased from Week 40 to Week 41; HPL - SPOT's price increased in the second half of October and the first half of November. Some companies' prices remained stable in the first half of October, while CMA attempted to raise the price for the Shanghai - Antwerp route in the second half of October [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas has drafted a letter to US President Trump, requesting a 60 - day cease - fire in exchange for the immediate release of half of the hostages in Gaza. The letter is expected to be delivered this week [2]. 3.2 Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Weekly and Monthly Average Capacity**: The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports was 272,600 TEU in October and 285,200 TEU in November. There were 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. - **Ship Deliveries**: 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 62 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 935,000 TEU and 8 ships over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [7]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 22, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 85,743 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 65,644 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., are provided [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 19, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1052/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $1636/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $2557/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1254.92 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1193.64 points [7]. 3.4 Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to short the October contract [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate center continued to decline in the first half of October, and HPL attempted to raise the price in the second half of the month. For the October contract, it is relatively safe to allocate short positions, but the key lies in the downward space. The uncertainty lies in the quotes for the second half of October. If HPL's price increase is successful, the estimated ceiling of the final delivery settlement price of the October contract is likely to be around 1100 points; otherwise, it may be close to 1000 points [4]. - For the December contract, the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long positions can be gradually allocated to trade the expected price increases by shipping companies in November and December. However, due to the current large premium of the December contract futures price over the spot price, investors should take long positions in the December contract with a light position [6]. - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price trends. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes decreased from WEEK39 to WEEK41; HPL - SPOT tried to raise the price in the second half of October. In the MSC + Premier Alliance, MSC and ONE's prices remained stable in the first half of October compared to the second half of September, and YML's price decreased [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel launched a large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called for the evacuation of Palestinians from Gaza City, with nearly 400,000 people having left so far [2]. - **Capacity and Empty Sailing**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European base ports from China was 272,600 TEU, with 15 empty sailings and 1 TBN. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity was 283,000 TEU, with 4 empty sailings and 6 TBN. HMM announced a winter suspension plan for the PA alliance on the Asia - Europe route [3]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: It is mainly short - allocated during the off - season. The freight rate center in the first half of October continued to decline to around $1400/FEU (equivalent to about 1000 points on the SCFIS). The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The uncertainty lies in HPL's attempt to raise the price in the second half of October [4]. - **December Contract**: The pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the potential impact of transferring US - bound ships to European routes. The current futures price of the December contract has a large premium over the spot price, so long positions should be taken lightly [6]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 84,867.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 31,831.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., were provided [7]. - **Spot Market**: The SCFI prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) and the SCFIS prices for European and US West routes were given as of relevant dates. The current spot price center is around $1400/FEU [4][6][7]. 3.4 Strategy and Risk - **Strategy**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. - **Risk**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and US economies, a sharp drop in oil prices, unexpected vessel deliveries, insufficient vessel idling, and a good resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upward risks include an economic recovery in Europe and the US, supply chain disruptions, significant capacity reduction by liner companies, and the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to route detours [8].