证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 宏观研究 外资如何看待 2026 中国经济？ ❖ 前言：本文关注外资对 2026 年中国经济的观点，整体而言，外资认为中国仍 处于新旧动能转换、供需再平衡的过程中，在此背景下，预计 2026 年经济增 速中枢在 4.5%附近（回溯来看外资预测普遍偏低估），通胀温和回升，CPI 转 正，PPI 降幅收窄。 ❖ （一）经济增长：中枢 4.5%左右 一致预期：多数机构认为，2026 年中国实际 GDP 增速 4.5%左右（小摩、德 银、瑞银、OECD、IMF），详见正文。 观点分歧：大摩的预期相对乐观（4.8%），一方面对出口的判断更为积极，预 计 2026 年净出口对 GDP 的贡献在 1.3 个百分点（瑞银为 0.7 个百分点），另一 方面，预计政府消费将有所提速。美银的预期同样乐观（4.7%），主要支撑在 投资，预计增速回升至 3.5%，结构上，基建在 5000 亿新型政策性金融工具+ 政府债扩容背景下维持高增，制造业低个位数增长，地产投资降幅收窄。巴克 莱的预测相对谨慎（4%），认为地产下行与低价风险仍将拖累经济表现。 ❖ （二）通胀：CPI 转正，PPI 降幅收窄 一 ...

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Group 1: Palm Oil - Indonesia's Energy Minister announced a mandatory B50 biodiesel policy to be implemented by 2026, leading to expectations of reduced palm oil exports from Indonesia [1] - MPOA data indicates a 2.35% decrease in Malaysia's palm oil production for September 1-30, with market surveys suggesting a potential decline in palm oil inventory for the first time in seven months due to increased exports and decreased production [1] - Concerns exist regarding India's potential increase in vegetable oil import tariffs, and domestic demand is under pressure following the end of the dual festival stocking period [1] Group 2: Gold - Concerns about a potential U.S. federal government shutdown have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the World Gold Council reporting a 12% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases in Q3 [1] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the necessity of another interest rate cut this year, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - Factors to watch include changes in inflation statements, adjustments to the balance sheet plan, and developments in geopolitical conflicts [1] Group 3: Copper - Global copper supply is tightening, exacerbated by production cuts at Chile's Escondida copper mine, with LME copper inventory dropping below 150,000 tons, the lowest level since 2005 [1] - Traditional sectors are experiencing weak demand, which may suppress downstream replenishment intentions due to high copper prices [1] - Key events to monitor include labor negotiations at Chile's Antofagasta copper mine and the resumption progress at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine [1] Group 4: Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows remains high, leading to sufficient supply of market pigs, while post-festival demand recovery has not met expectations [1] - National breeding sow inventory is being gradually reduced, with plans to decrease by 1 million heads within six months [1] - Events to watch include policy intervention signals, slaughter rhythm and weight, and the impact of weather changes on transportation and consumption demand [1] Group 5: Shipping - A ceasefire agreement in Gaza has been confirmed, and global fleet capacity is expected to grow by 6.3% by 2025, creating significant pressure from new ship deliveries [1] - The period from late Q3 to early Q4 is traditionally a low season, with spot rates continuing to decline [1] - Risks include potential seasonal demand for Christmas stocking, which may lead to a temporary increase in cargo volume, and ongoing threats from Houthi forces in Yemen [1] Group 6: Coking Coal - Weekly inventory of coking coal has decreased by 132, reaching 36.324 million tons, with recent mining accidents raising concerns about production capacity [2] - The long-term contract price for Mongolian coal has increased by $3.8 per ton in Q4, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards traditional peak season demand [2] - Key events to monitor include the maintenance of high iron water production capacity and the fulfillment of steel demand [2] Group 7: Industrial Silicon - The southwestern region is approaching a dry season, with expectations of rising electricity prices pushing production costs higher [2] - Institutions forecast a 5.95% month-on-month increase in October's polysilicon output to 142,500 tons, with a 3.7% increase in operating rates to 50.05% [2] - Events to watch include the progress of polysilicon storage plans and discussions on revising energy consumption standards for industrial silicon [2]

Financial Performance - The consolidated earnings for the first half of 2025 were $1.15 per diluted share, a decrease from $1.20 for the first half of 2024 [4] - For the second quarter of 2025, consolidated earnings were $0.17 per diluted share, down from $0.29 for the second quarter of 2024 [4] Conference Call Details - The Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call was hosted by Stacey Walters, Investor Relations Manager, with participation from President and CEO Heather Rosentrater and CFO Kevin Christie [2] - The earnings and Form 10-Q for Q2 2025 were released premarket and are available on the company's website [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Haid Group Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, while cash flow from operating activities saw a notable decline, indicating a mixed financial performance that warrants investor attention [1] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was approximately 114.60 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.31% from 2023's 116.12 billion yuan [2] - Despite the slight revenue decline, the company achieved record-high feed sales of 26.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 9%, indicating strong market competitiveness [2] - Domestic feed sales reached 22.06 million tons, up approximately 5%, while overseas feed sales surged by 40% to 2.36 million tons [2] Profitability - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 4.50 billion yuan, a 64.30% increase from 2.74 billion yuan in 2023 [3] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was about 4.54 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 78.60% compared to 2.54 billion yuan in 2023 [3] - Basic earnings per share rose to 2.71 yuan, up 63.25% from 1.66 yuan in 2023 [3] Cost and Expense Management - Sales expenses increased by 15.46% to approximately 2.61 billion yuan, driven by expanded sales scale and increased personnel costs [4] - Management expenses rose by 21.81% to about 3.19 billion yuan, necessitating a review of internal management efficiency [4] - Financial expenses decreased by 27.86% to approximately 369.71 million yuan, positively impacting profit growth [4] Research and Development - R&D investment amounted to approximately 911.81 million yuan, representing 0.80% of revenue, with a 9.50% increase in R&D personnel to 3,860 [5] - The company is advancing multiple R&D projects aimed at enhancing its competitive edge in the market [5] Cash Flow Analysis - The net cash flow from operating activities was approximately 7.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.03% from 12.70 billion yuan in 2023, primarily due to increased inventory and cash payments [6] - The net cash flow from investing activities was -6.41 billion yuan, a 67.68% increase in outflow compared to -3.82 billion yuan in 2023 [6] - The net cash flow from financing activities improved by 36.13% to -3.61 billion yuan, reflecting a reduction in loan repayments [6] Risk Factors - The company faces risks from weather anomalies and animal diseases that could impact feed demand [7][8] - Fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly for corn and soybeans, pose a risk to procurement costs [8] - Environmental policy changes may affect the industry’s capacity and market share [8] Management Compensation - The chairman received a pre-tax remuneration of 4.58 million yuan, with other executives also receiving significant compensation, reflecting the responsibility to drive company performance [9]