Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18 raises questions about the expected negative correlation between gold and the US dollar, as the dollar weakened but gold did not rise as anticipated [1][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The market had high expectations for a larger rate cut of 50 basis points, but the actual cut was only 25 basis points, leading to a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment regarding gold [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to the rate cut, described as risk management, contributed to the drop in gold prices [3]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Global central banks, including China, have engaged in significant monetary expansion, with China's M2 money supply increasing from 60 trillion yuan in 1995 to over 300 trillion yuan today, highlighting the inflationary pressure on fiat currencies [4]. - The limited supply of gold compared to the unlimited production of paper currency suggests that gold will retain its value as paper currency depreciates, indicating a loss of confidence in fiat money [4]. Group 3: Dollar Dynamics - The US dollar's dominance is being challenged as many countries seek alternatives, with US debt reaching 37 trillion dollars and concerns about the sustainability of this debt growing [5]. - Continuous interest rate cuts are expected to lead to further depreciation of the dollar, which could ultimately support an increase in gold prices as investors seek to hedge against currency devaluation [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Perspective - In the current economic environment, gold is viewed as a reliable store of value compared to other investment options, as confidence in fiat currencies diminishes [6]. - The decision to invest in gold versus holding cash depends on individual circumstances, but gold is recommended as a hedge against inflation [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, described by Powell as a "risk management" move rather than a shift to a sustained easing cycle [1][3] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowdown, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.2% to 4.3% [1][2] - The labor supply is decreasing due to immigration policies, which may mask the true decline in labor demand, leading to a "low hiring, low firing" environment [2] Group 2 - Inflation risks remain, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.7% over the past 12 months, and core PCE increasing by 2.9%, influenced by rising goods prices while service price inflation slows [3] - Despite the rate cut, the Fed's contradictory stance on predicting economic growth and inflation increases has led to market confusion [3] - International capital is seeking "safe havens," with China being a primary destination, as foreign investors injected nearly $45 billion into emerging market stocks and bonds in August, with about $39 billion directed towards China [4] Group 3 - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between the U.S. and China may lead to increased capital inflows into China, potentially boosting the RMB exchange rate [4] - China's monetary policy needs to be cautious in response to the narrowing interest rate differential, as further rate cuts could pressure bank margins and increase risk appetite among banks [4] - The low interest rate elasticity of consumption and investment in China suggests that rate cuts may not effectively stimulate these sectors, necessitating careful consideration of both international and domestic liquidity conditions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Fed's dot plot indicates the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [1][2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, emphasizing the need to respond to a cooling labor market [1][3]. - The Fed's economic forecast report slightly upgraded GDP growth predictions for 2025 and 2026 to 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, both up by 0.2 percentage points from June [2]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Outlook - The Fed is prioritizing employment over inflation, indicating a higher tolerance for inflation in the short term [2][3]. - The projected unemployment rate remains stable at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, unchanged from previous forecasts [2]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Future Projections - There is significant division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with 9 out of 19 voting members supporting two more cuts, while others are more cautious [3][5]. - The dot plot reflects a lack of consensus, with some members advocating for only one additional cut or none at all [5][6]. - The Fed's decision-making process is reportedly unaffected by political factors, as emphasized by Powell [6][7].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：创金合信基金） 4 月初以来美股因业绩韧性持续强势，但当前估值横向纵向均较高，预计高位震荡概率加大，上涨斜率 趋缓。 1、美联储再次开启降息应对降温的劳动力市场,但 降息预期或不如市场交易的极致:今年首次降息在连 续多月疲软的劳动市场影响之下如期而至,但经济展 望与鲍威尔新闻发布会也透露出"鹰派"的信号,因 月连续公布的就业数据让实劳动力市场的实质性放 缓,而通胀在美联储持续的担忧之下反而保持稳健, 因此在当前阶段,双重目标的重心已经从预防通胀转 为平衡就业。从会后声明来看,本次删除了"劳动力 市场状况仍然稳健"的说法,增加了"就业增长放 缓、就业下行风险有所上升"的表述; 2、本次投票结果暂时平息了外界对美联储内部分歧 的担忧:本月的利率决议以近乎全票的结果通过了25 个基点的降息,暂时平息了外界对美联储内部分歧的 担忧。唯一的反对票来自特朗普总统刚提名的盟友米 兰,这与特朗普长期以来的要求相呼应,他认为应该 降息50BP,此举或也将再次引发市场担心的美联储 独立性挑战。而最新点阵图显示年内降息3次共 75BP,较6月份的中位数下调25BP,同时在今年降 息三次后,明年和后年大概各会 ...

美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率从4.25%—4.50%降至4.00% —4.25%，符合市场预期。 这是去年12月以来FOMC首次行动。FOMC去年曾实施三次降息，但之后一直按兵不动。 美联储公布利率决议后，市场反应剧烈，美股三大指数短线冲高后迅速跳水，美元指数直线下挫，一度 创出2025年以来新低，随后大幅拉升，由跌转涨；金价自历史高位暴跌。 周四（9月18日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡偏弱，目前黄金价格交投于3660美元附近，美联储周三降息 25个基点并释放2025年继续宽松信号，但美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话鸽派程度不及预期，金价应声大幅下 挫近1%。 【要闻速递】 市场的剧烈波动与美联储主席鲍威尔随后召开的货币政策新闻发布会密切相关。他表示，无需迅速调整 利率，可以把今天的举动看作是风险管理式的降息。 FOMC声明称："委员会关注其双重使命所面临的双向风险，并判断就业的下行风险已经上升，" 在会后声明中，委员会再次将经济活动描述为"增速放缓"，同时新增表述称"就业岗位增长放缓"，并指 出通胀"已有所回升，且仍保持在相对较高水平"。就业增长放缓与通胀上升并存，与美联储"稳 ...

鲍威尔9月17日例行新闻发布会要点总结： 1、货币政策：今天的行动是一种风险管理类型的降息。FOMC对降息50个基点呼声的支持 并不多。 2、劳动力市场：经过修订的就业数据意味着，劳动力市场不再那么稳固。失业率仍然偏 低，但已经上扬；就业人口增幅已经放缓，下行风险加重，就业市场指标表明下行风险是实 质性的。人工智能（AI）可能是招聘放缓的原因之一。 3、通胀：关税通胀的传导机制已经放缓，影响的力度也更小。"关税通胀顽固地存在"的可 能性降低。预计美国8月PCE通胀率同比上升2.7%，预计核心PCE同比上升2.9%。预计服务 业将继续存在反通胀现象。长期通胀预期像磐石一样稳固。 4、美联储独立性：美联储坚定地致力于维持自身的独立性。如果讨论美联储理事Lisa Cook 与美国总统特朗普之间的官司，那将是不合适的；不会针对美国财长贝森特的讲话发表任何 评论。在追求双重职责方面，FOMC仍然是团结一致的。 5、关税：关税对核心PCE通胀数据造成0.3-0.4个百分点的"贡献"。 美东时间9月17日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25%至 4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%， ...