All three of the stocks rallied more than 5% on Monday as investors piled into Bitcoin and other risk-on assets. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points has positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a decrease in the cost of credit default swaps for euro-denominated debt [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The Fed's rate cut is driving an increase in global investment appetite for risk assets [1] - The European cross credit default swap index, which measures the credit risk of euro high-yield bonds, fell by 3 basis points to 248 basis points [1]

同时，尽管过去几个月通胀率年增，但迄今为止关税对消费者物价的影响仍然有限。美联储仍然认为关 税驱动的物价上涨只是水平变化，而非通胀的持续驱动因素。然而，由于基准关税的一些细节才刚刚明 朗，而且最近达成的"协议"的许多细节仍有待敲定，未来几个月通货膨胀率可能会继续上升。 关于在2024年降息100个基点之后，2025年是否会长期停滞、不会降息的问题，摩根资管指，美联储当 然愿意等待经济数据出现逆转——无论是成长放缓还是通胀上升——然后再采取行动，但可能需要几个 月的数据才能更清楚地了解该政策对美国经济的影响。 摩根资产管理环球策略师Kerry Craig表示，目前市场定价反映出9月降息的可能性不到50%，未来三次 会议上降息次数也不超过两次。摩根资管仍然预期美联储今年将放松政策，然而，9月降息的条件似乎 很高，可能需要劳动力市场出现实质恶化，并且政策决策的意外经济后果要到今年晚些时候才能完全显 现，这表明美联储可能在12月份降息。 美联储在7月会议上并未如预期般调整利率，但这标志着30多年来首次出现两位反对者。美联储希望被 视为货币政策"高效"，而非强硬或"鸽派"。 总体而言，美联储仍然认为经济状况良好。虽然对 ...

Core Insights - A record number of investors are returning to risk assets driven by optimism about economic growth and strong corporate profits [1] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - The risk level in investor portfolios has reached the highest level since 2001 over a three-month period [1] - There has been a significant increase in allocations to U.S. and European stocks, as well as technology stocks [1] Group 2: Allocation Changes - The July survey indicates the largest increase in allocations to U.S. stocks since December of the previous year [1] - Allocations to technology stocks have seen the largest three-month increase since 2009 [1] - The overweight position in Eurozone stocks has reached its highest level in four years [1]

Group 1 - Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating led to a 1% drop in the S&P 500 index, but retail traders began record buying of US stocks shortly after [1] - Retail investors net purchased $4.1 billion in US stocks by noon on Monday, marking the highest level for that time of day [1] - The S&P 500 index initially fell nearly 1.1% but rebounded to a flat position by the afternoon, with retail trading accounting for 36% of the volume, the highest since April [1][3] Group 2 - Retail investors have learned from past experiences and are now committed to seizing opportunities in the market, as indicated by their significant buying activity [3] - Wall Street strategists largely ignored Moody's downgrade, advising clients to continue buying stocks, with some suggesting that the recent drop presents a buying opportunity [3] - Clough Capital Partners' CEO noted that retail investors are making intuitive decisions to allocate funds where they can achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns [4] Group 3 - On Monday, retail investors bought $2.5 billion in individual stocks and $1.5 billion in ETFs, with significant inflows into Tesla and Palantir [4] - Retail investors are also investing in Bitcoin ETFs while remaining net sellers of Nvidia [4]