Core Viewpoint - The Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is expected to remain in a low-speed adjustment phase in 2026, with an estimated annual sales growth of 0.9% [1]. Market Performance: Resilience Remains - As of September 2025, FMCG sales grew by 1.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate dropped to 0.7% in the third quarter, indicating increasingly cautious consumer spending [2]. Category Differentiation: Growth Drivers and Pressures Coexist - **Food Category**: Expected to be the main growth driver with a projected sales growth rate of 3.0% in 2026. Consumer demand for convenience, nutrition, and product upgrades supports this growth. In the first three quarters of 2025, growth was 3.4%, with a third-quarter growth rate of 4.4% [4]. - **Dairy Products**: Anticipated to decline by 6.2% in sales in 2026. In the first three quarters of 2025, there was a 6.1% year-on-year decrease, with a third-quarter drop of 6.8%, primarily due to increased competition from plant-based alternatives and heightened price sensitivity among consumers [4]. - **Non-Alcoholic Beverages**: Growth momentum is weakening, with an expected growth rate of 3.9% in 2026, down from 4.8% in 2025. The first three quarters of 2025 saw a growth of 4.9%, but the third quarter's growth plummeted to 1.7%, indicating future growth risks [4]. - **Alcoholic Beverages**: A significant shift is noted, with a slight expected decline of 0.6% in 2026. The first three quarters of 2025 showed a minor increase of 0.9%, but the third quarter experienced a year-on-year decline of 4.2%, reflecting reduced consumer spending on non-essential items [4]. - **Home Care Products**: Expected to perform steadily with a growth rate of 2.5% in 2026. The first three quarters of 2025 recorded a growth of 3.1%, with a third-quarter slowdown to 1.7% [5]. - **Personal Care Products**: Recovery is slow, with a potential flat growth rate of -0.1% in 2026. The first three quarters of 2025 saw a growth of 1.1%, but the third quarter's growth fell to zero, highlighting intense competition and consumer price sensitivity [5]. Structural Opportunities: Lower-tier Markets and Emerging Demands - Despite numerous challenges, opportunities exist in the market. Lower-tier cities are experiencing increased consumer demand, driven by the penetration of e-commerce, instant retail, and logistics infrastructure [6]. - Categories emphasizing health, functionality, and sustainability (such as plant-based foods, eco-friendly home products, and functional beverages) are showing strong growth momentum [6]. - Brands that can innovate to align with emerging lifestyles and promote product premiumization are more likely to thrive in a cautious market environment [6]. Summary: Agile Response to Complex Environment - The trend of cautious consumer behavior is expected to continue into 2026, placing pressure on corporate growth. Companies need to leverage data insights, closely monitor market changes, and swiftly adjust strategies to find survival and growth opportunities in this complex market [6].

Core Insights - The article highlights the shift in personal and household care consumption from mere functionality to a focus on sensory comfort and emotional healing, driven by the fast-paced and high-pressure lifestyle of modern consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Demand Upgrade - The emotional value demand from consumers is driving an upgrade in consumption decisions, with fragrance becoming a key element in fulfilling emotional needs through various scent profiles [3]. - In the body care category, fragrance products have shown significant market performance, with a price index of 116 and a penetration rate increase of 0.9 percentage points for fragrance products by the second quarter of 2025 [3]. - Households with children and female buyers are identified as the primary audience for fragrance care products, contributing significantly to overall category growth [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Segments - In 2024, households with children are projected to be the largest consumer group for fragrance laundry products, with a preference index of 108 and a penetration rate increase of 13 percentage points [5]. - The shopping frequency for this demographic has increased by 11.8%, indicating a growing market potential [5]. - Lower-tier cities and interest e-commerce channels, exemplified by platforms like Douyin, are emerging as key battlegrounds for fragrance care products, presenting opportunities for brands to capture market share [5]. Group 3: Ingredient Development and Technological Innovation - The success of fragrance products relies on ingredient development and technological innovation, with natural plant essential oils and microencapsulation technology becoming mainstream choices for leading brands [6]. - Natural plant essential oils meet both fragrance and cleaning/care needs, making them highly sought after by consumers [6]. - Worldpanel's AI packaging recognition technology is being utilized to track emerging market trends, including popular product scents, ingredients, and technologies, allowing brands to monitor market dynamics effectively [6][8]. Conclusion - Brands in the personal and household care categories should focus on the fragrance economy, providing emotional experiences alongside basic functionalities [9]. - Targeting female buyers and households with children, while exploring demand in lower-tier cities and interest e-commerce, can enhance market opportunities [9]. - Continuous monitoring and analysis of consumer behavior changes will aid brands in identifying market opportunities and tracking product performance [9].

Group 1: Personal Care Industry - The personal care sector is experiencing growth driven by increased national income and health demands, providing opportunities for domestic brands to gain market share [1] - Douyin's channel is accelerating the online growth of personal care products, with GMV growth expected to reach 38.86% in 2024, significantly outpacing cosmetics [1] - Recommended stocks include companies with clear technological advantages and strong operational capabilities, such as Dengkang Oral Care and Runben Co., with a focus on brands that combine technological innovation and channel control [1] Group 2: Cosmetics Industry - The cosmetics industry saw an unexpected growth rate of 3.2% in Q1 2025, attributed to consumption promotion policies and a low base effect, entering a phase of normalized growth [2] - Foreign brands are facing dual pressures from tariffs and store closures, leading to a negative performance, while domestic brands are actively innovating and expanding their product lines [2] - Recommended stocks include Marubi and Proya, with a focus on companies that are actively innovating and showing strong performance [2] Group 3: Offline Beauty Care - The offline beauty care sector is experiencing a divided performance, driven by supply-side innovations, particularly in new materials like collagen and hydroxyapatite [3] - Companies like Jinbo Bio are leading in the field of recombinant collagen, with a rich product layout and capacity expansion plans [3] - The offline beauty care industry is expected to benefit from technological innovations and supportive consumption policies, with recommendations for Jinbo Bio and Juzhi Bio [3]