西南证券发布研报称，2025年轻工板块业绩平淡，顺周期及传统制造估值承压，包装、出口、个护板块 表现分化。2026年重点关注四条主线：1）低估值顺周期（如造纸）迎底部反转；2）需求强、产能布局 优的出口标的；3）国货个护品牌持续成长；4）AI眼镜、新型烟草等新消费赛道延续高景气。 推荐标的：太阳纸业、博汇纸业、稳健医疗、百亚股份、诺邦股份、依依股份、梦百合、顾家家居。 风险提示：地产竣工不及预期的风险；终端需求疲弱的风险；原材料价格波动的风险；汇率波动的风 险。 回顾2025年，在业绩表现相对平淡的背景下，轻工板块中传统顺周期和传统制造公司的估值依然受到压 制。而包装印刷等板块受益于提价落地（金属包装）和跨界转型等因素，股价表现较好。出口板块在关 税政策扰动下出现一定程度分化，其中多产能布局均衡、需求韧性强、受关税影响小的标的表现较好。 个护板块在上半年有超额收益，下半年受电商渠道竞争加剧的影响，进入估值消化期，但国货品牌受益 于产品结构优化和渠道扩张，中长期成长逻辑有望持续兑现。 2026年选股思路 一方面关注低估顺周期资产在大宗周期变化下估值修复，逐步兑现配置价值；另一方面不断平衡新消费 及出口板块的估值 ...

轻工行业2026年投资策略 掘金情绪消费，重估周期价值 西南证券研究院 轻工研究团队 2026年1月 核 心 观 点 1 2025年板块复盘：回顾2025年，在业绩表现相对平淡的背景下，轻工板块中传统顺周期和传统制造公司的估值 依然受到压制。而包装印刷等板块受益于提价落地（金属包装）和跨界转型等因素，股价表现较好。出口板块在 关税政策扰动下出现一定程度分化，其中多产能布局均衡、需求韧性强、受关税影响小的标的表现较好。个护板 块在上半年有超额收益，下半年受电商渠道竞争加剧的影响，进入估值消化期，但国货品牌受益于产品结构优化 和渠道扩张，中长期成长逻辑有望持续兑现。 2026年选股思路：一方面关注低估顺周期资产在大宗周期变化下估值修复，逐步兑现配置价值；另一方面不断 平衡新消费及出口板块的估值与成长性匹配度，优选成长匹配度高或估值低位、安全性高的标的。推荐四条主线 ：1）逐步重视低估值的顺周期标的。以造纸为代表的大宗周期板块，在"反内卷"与传统旺季驱动下逐步开始 提价，且当前渠道库存处于历史低位，提价持续性值得期待，吨净利有望修复，板块呈现底部反转的机会。 2） 需求韧性强、制造能力突出的出口标的配置价值仍较高。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a growing trend of self-love among consumers, reflected in their spending on health, quality, and self-expression products [1][2] - The "self-love" mindset is increasingly influencing purchasing decisions, moving from online discussions to actual shopping behaviors, particularly in categories like personal care and health beverages [1][2] Group 2 - In the personal care sector, liquid soap is experiencing significant growth, with sales expected to increase by 55% by 2025, driven largely by high-income new middle-class consumers [4] - The primary consumer demographics for liquid soap include young families and older households, with a focus on health protection and convenience [4] - The body care segment is seeing a notable rise in scented products, with double-digit growth for body lotions that offer emotional experiences [4] Group 3 - Consumers are becoming more discerning in their beverage choices, with 46% regularly checking ingredient labels and nutritional information, indicating a shift towards valuing transparency and real value [6] - The low-temperature yogurt market is witnessing a decline in consumer trust regarding health claims, necessitating brands to adopt clearer communication and professional endorsements [6] Group 4 - Beer consumption is growing in both home and out-of-home markets, with home consumption driven by heavy drinkers seeking quality and value, while younger consumers are pushing for a more social and relaxed drinking experience [7] Group 5 - In the beauty sector, consumers are making more informed choices based on specific scenarios, with different skincare needs for morning and evening routines [9] - Medical beauty consumers spend approximately 1.4 times more on skincare than non-medical beauty consumers, showing a preference for high-efficacy products [9] Group 6 - The approach to self-love varies by life stage and household structure, with single young adults favoring a "prudent" purchasing model focused on quality and value [11] - Older households show a strong preference for essential goods and health products, with a notable demand for quality in their purchases [11]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The light industry and beauty sector is expected to stabilize and improve due to the dual drivers of domestic demand policies and steady export growth [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a year of enhanced domestic demand policies, coupled with consumers' increasing pursuit of high-quality living, creating significant growth opportunities for the industry [3] - The penetration rate of cross-border e-commerce has ample room for improvement, and the recovery of international relations and demand from emerging markets will further drive market expansion [3] Group 2: Beauty Sector - The cosmetics market is projected to grow steadily, with the skincare segment being the largest, reaching a market size of 4,619 billion yuan in 2024, and expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% from 2024 to 2029 [19] - The high-end cosmetics market is rapidly expanding, with the market size for high-end skincare products increasing from 749 billion yuan in 2019 to 1,144 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.84% [19] - Key companies in the beauty sector include: - **Mao Geping**: Revenue reached 25.88 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a growth rate of 31.28% [23] - **Lin Qingxuan**: Revenue grew to 10.52 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 98.28% increase [27] - **Marubi**: Revenue is expected to reach 29.70 billion yuan in 2024, recovering from previous declines [32] Group 3: Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics sector is facing short-term pressure due to cautious consumer spending, but the long-term growth potential remains strong, with a projected CAGR of 10%-15% from 2024 to 2027 [36] - The market penetration rate for medical aesthetics in China is currently at 4-5%, indicating a growth potential of 2-5 times compared to countries like the US and South Korea [36] - Key companies in the medical aesthetics sector include: - **Jinbo Biological**: Achieved revenue of 12.96 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.10% [45] Group 4: Daily Chemicals - The daily chemical industry is benefiting from domestic demand policies, with local brands poised to capture market share [49] - Companies such as **Dengkang Oral Care** and **Runben** are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [51][55] - **Shanghai Jahwa** has shown significant growth, with revenue reaching 49.61 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a 10.83% increase [59] Group 5: Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is under pressure due to weak real estate sales, with a 15% decline in residential investment in 2025 [65] - National subsidies for home appliances and furnishings have provided some support, but the long-term effects are limited [65] - Leading companies such as **Oppein Home** and **Kuka Home** are noted for their strong channel capabilities and multi-category layouts [65]

行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 23 日 扩内需提消费下关注个护、潮玩、 宠物等赛道；关注永艺股份报告 看好 —— 造纸轻工周报 2025/12/15-2025/12/19 本期投资提示： ⚫ 重点提示：1）内需消费：在扩大内需、提振消费的背景下，关注结构性消费机会，如国 货崛起的个护、相对高景气的宠物用品、悦己消费催化的 IP 潮玩 ...

不过，密集并购带来的商誉风险及债务飙升问题值得关注。长江商报记者注意到，截至2025年9月30日，孩子王商 誉账面价值飙升至19.32亿元；期末，公司长期借款达20.44亿元，同比暴增125.35%，主要为新增的"并购贷"，资 产负债率达64.26%。 当"母婴零售第一股"的规模光环逐渐褪去，孩子王正站在一个新的十字路口，此次冲击港股上市，是为了拓展业 务版图，还是补血解压？能助其突破增长困境吗？ 继A股市场上市后，孩子王（301078.SZ）启动赴港IPO引发关注。 孩子王是母婴零售龙头企业，据弗若斯特沙利文数据，2024年按GMV计，孩子王在中国母婴童产品及服务市场排 名第一，市场份额为0.3%。 受限母婴行业见顶，孩子王归母净利润在2021年至2023年出现连续三年下滑。为此，孩子王祭出"扩品类、扩赛 道、扩业态"三扩战略，以密集并购跨界扩张。从经营业绩指标来看，收购扩张短期取得了效果。 奶粉业务贡献半壁江山 近日，孩子王正式向港交所主板发起冲击，本次拟发行的H股股数不超过发行后公司总股本的15%。募集资金将 用于海外拓展及收购，扩展销售网络及品牌推广，数字化与智能化升级，研发新品及拓展产品组合，营运资 ...

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlined key tasks for China's economic work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of maintaining confidence and leveraging advantages to address challenges [1][9] Economic Work Focus Areas - **Domestic Demand**: Emphasis on building a strong domestic market through consumption initiatives, income increase plans, and investment stabilization [1][11] - **Innovation Drive**: Focus on fostering new growth drivers by enhancing education, technology, and talent development, and establishing international innovation centers [1][11] - **Reform and High-Quality Development**: Commitment to deepening reforms, including a unified market construction and addressing competitive practices [2][11] - **Opening Up**: Promotion of multi-field cooperation and gradual expansion of service sector openness, along with enhancing foreign investment mechanisms [2][11] - **Coordinated Development**: Efforts to promote urban-rural integration and regional collaboration, ensuring stable prices for essential agricultural products [2][11] - **Green Transition**: Initiatives aimed at energy efficiency and carbon reduction across key industries [2][11] - **Public Welfare**: Focus on improving people's livelihoods through job stability and healthcare reforms [3][11] - **Risk Management**: Strategies to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks [3][11] Market Opportunities - **Technology and Manufacturing Exports**: Attention on sectors like semiconductor equipment, AI, and robotics, as well as traditional manufacturing exports [6][14] - **Supply Optimization**: Focus on industries with resource constraints and potential price increases, alongside sectors benefiting from policy adjustments [6][14] - **Consumer and Service Sector Upgrades**: Anticipation of a positive macroeconomic policy environment boosting consumer sectors, particularly in retail and food and beverage [6][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic investment of Yan Jianya, a newly crowned billionaire from Shaanxi, who acquired an 8% stake in the A-share listed company Sanrenxing for 450 million yuan, marking a significant move in the capital market [5][12]. Group 1: Investment Details - Yan Jianya's acquisition of Sanrenxing is seen as a "bottom-fishing" strategy, as the company has faced declining performance, with revenue dropping from 5.65 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.21 billion yuan in 2024, and net profit falling from 740 million yuan to 120 million yuan during the same period [5][13]. - Following the transaction, the controlling shareholder's stake in Sanrenxing decreased from 53.88% to 45.88%, while Yan Jianya became the second-largest shareholder with over 5% ownership [12][13]. - The deal is characterized as an effort to optimize the company's equity structure and introduce a significant strategic investor, which is expected to enhance governance and market credibility for Sanrenxing [13][14]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - For Sanrenxing, Yan Jianya's involvement is anticipated to bring threefold value: governance improvement, resource synergy, and strategic empowerment, particularly in expanding into high-end manufacturing and military sectors [13][14]. - Yan Jianya's investment is also a strategic positioning move, as Sanrenxing's marketing network and data resources could synergize with his beauty and skincare business, Giant Biogene, enhancing brand building and market promotion [14][15]. - The collaboration between Yan Jianya and Sanrenxing has been developing over several years, with previous joint ventures and investments laying the groundwork for this deeper capital connection [15][16]. Group 3: Broader Context of Yan Jianya's Investments - Prior to the Sanrenxing investment, Yan Jianya's notable investment was the acquisition of a 100% stake in Siyi Industrial by Kid King, valued at 1.65 billion yuan, marking it as the largest personal care acquisition in China this year [18][19]. - Yan Jianya's family empire includes three listed companies: Giant Biogene, Triangle Defense, and Sanrenxing, showcasing a diversified portfolio across biotechnology, advanced manufacturing, and marketing services [24][25]. - The family's investment strategy emphasizes industrial synergy, with plans for further capital expansion and resource integration through their private equity platform, Sanyuan Capital, which focuses on aerospace, new materials, and advanced manufacturing [26][29].

Core Viewpoint - The pricing logic of Chinese stocks is subtly changing, with China taking a more proactive role in global trade, and the manufacturing sector entering a globalization development cycle. The real estate market is stabilizing, leading to a shift in economic thinking, while macro tail risks are decreasing. New technologies and industries are emerging, creating more opportunities in structural development areas [1]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The pet food industry is experiencing a simultaneous increase in volume and price, driven by diversified growth and strong brand loyalty, suggesting significant potential for leading brands [2]. - The gold and jewelry sector is expected to maintain a favorable outlook through 2026, with a focus on the value retention of gold jewelry and the strengthening of leading brands [2]. - The collectible toy market is evolving towards a global business model, transitioning from a single product focus to an integrated IP and ecosystem approach, highlighting the importance of strong brand positioning [2]. - The new tobacco sector is seeing stricter regulations but a steady recovery in the compliant market, with increased penetration of heated tobacco products (HNB) [2]. - The AI smart glasses market is projected to grow significantly, with sales expected to reach 1.8 million units by 2026, indicating a shift in product development priorities [2]. - The two-wheeler market is undergoing regulatory changes that are optimizing the industry structure, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved product offerings [2]. Group 2: Cyclical Opportunities - The home furnishings sector is anticipated to remain in an adjustment phase until 2026, with growth driven by demand for soft and smart home products [3]. - The paper industry is facing a tightening supply of wood chips, which may support a gradual recovery in pulp prices, with leading companies expected to enhance their competitive advantages [3]. - The metal packaging industry is seeing increased concentration, with expectations of slight price increases in 2026, while the paper and plastic packaging sectors are maintaining stable demand [3]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - Following the US interest rate cuts, expectations for real estate improvement are rising, and corporate orders are showing signs of recovery, with leading companies benefiting from localized production strategies [5]. - Companies with global layouts, such as home furnishings and automotive brands, are demonstrating resilience and expanding their brand influence through mature local operations [5]. Group 4: Textile and Apparel - The outdoor apparel market is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 9.6% for outdoor clothing and 9.2% for footwear from 2025 to 2029, driven by product innovation [6]. - The men's clothing and home textile sectors are showing resilience, with leading companies benefiting from high dividend yields and online sales growth [6]. - The textile manufacturing sector is optimistic about external demand, with healthy channel inventories and improving orders, particularly in Indonesia as a key production destination [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent acquisition of an 8% stake in the A-share listed company Sanrenxing by the new Shaanxi billionaire Yan Jianya for 450 million yuan is a strategic move that reflects deep-rooted collaboration and mutual trust between Yan and Sanrenxing, aiming to optimize the company's governance and expand its market reach [4][10][14]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Sanrenxing's controlling shareholder transferred 8% of its shares to Yan Jianya for 450 million yuan, marking a significant investment in the company [5][10]. - Following the transaction, Sanrenxing's controlling shareholder's stake decreased from 53.88% to 45.88%, while Yan became the second-largest shareholder with over 5% of the shares [10][11]. - The transaction is characterized as a strategic move to optimize the company's equity structure and introduce a significant strategic investor [11][14]. Group 2: Background of Yan Jianya - Yan Jianya, who recently topped the Shaanxi billionaire list with a net worth of 33 billion yuan, is the founder of Giant Biogene, a leading player in the collagen protein sector [5][8]. - Yan's investment in Sanrenxing is not his first interaction with the company; both parties have collaborated on various projects, including a previous investment in Giant Biogene by Sanrenxing [6][12]. - Yan's business empire includes three listed companies: Giant Biogene, Triangle Defense, and Sanrenxing, forming a diversified capital matrix across biotechnology, aerospace, and marketing [7][24]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The partnership is expected to enhance Sanrenxing's governance and market credibility, leveraging Yan's extensive industry resources to attract large clients, particularly in high-end manufacturing and military sectors [11][14]. - Yan's investment is seen as a strategic positioning to synergize with Sanrenxing's marketing capabilities, potentially benefiting his other ventures in the consumer goods sector [11][14]. - The collaboration has evolved over years, transitioning from initial joint ventures to a direct strategic investment, indicating a strong foundation of trust and resource complementarity [12][14]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Sanrenxing has faced declining revenues, with projections showing a drop from 5.65 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.21 billion yuan in 2024, and net profits falling from 740 million yuan to 120 million yuan during the same period [5][6]. - Yan's other company, Triangle Defense, reported revenues of 1.247 billion yuan and net profits of 375 million yuan in Q3 2025, showcasing a robust performance in the aerospace sector [22]. Group 5: Broader Context - The transaction reflects a broader trend of family-owned businesses in China actively engaging in capital markets and strategic investments to build diversified business ecosystems [26][28]. - Yan Jianya's approach emphasizes industry synergy and strategic expansion, as evidenced by his previous investments and the establishment of a private equity platform focused on sectors aligned with his core businesses [26][28].