Core Viewpoint - The transportation industry has shown weak performance compared to the broader market, with heavy asset sectors like highways and railways lagging behind, while cyclical sectors such as shipping and aviation have performed better due to the implementation of anti-involution policies in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: 2026 Outlook - The focus for 2026 will remain on sectors benefiting from anti-involution and high certainty stocks, as the emphasis on anti-involution is expected to have a long-term impact on industry performance [2] - Key sectors to watch include aviation, express delivery, and regional shipping, while high dividend and low debt ratio stocks will be favored in weak cyclical areas [2] Group 2: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability due to rising single-ticket prices and a reduction in low-price competition, with major companies opting to abandon unprofitable business lines [3] - The sector is currently in the early stages of an upward cycle, with lower price competition expected to persist, favoring companies that provide differentiated services [3] - Key companies to focus on include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, which are showing improved profitability [3] Group 3: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector has experienced significant performance improvements since Q2, driven by lower oil prices and effective supply management by airlines [4] - Airlines are expected to maintain a cautious approach to aircraft procurement through 2026, with improvements in passenger load factors and revenue per seat kilometer indicating a strengthening supply-demand relationship [4] - The focus should be on the three major airlines, which are expected to show greater revenue and profit elasticity compared to smaller carriers [4] Group 4: Highway Sector - The highway sector has underperformed the market due to declining bond yields and rising market risk appetite, although the sector's price-to-earnings ratio has become more attractive after recent adjustments [5] - There is a growing preference for high dividend and low debt ratio companies, as investors exhibit risk-averse behavior following the sector's adjustments [5] - Recommended stocks include Wantong Expressway, Guangdong Expressway A, and China Merchants Highway, with a focus on stable dividend payouts from Ninghu Expressway [5]

东兴证券近日发布交通运输行业2026年投资策略：回顾本年交运行业的走势，截至2025年12月8日，交 运板块涨幅在申万一级行业中排名靠后，走势明显弱于大盘。细分到子板块，公路、铁路、港口等重资 产+弱周期板块年初至今走势相对较弱，而航运航空等周期类板块走势相对较强。我们认为下半年反内 卷的政策执行对交运强周期板块的股价产生了较为积极的影响。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资摘要： 行业回顾：反内卷带动强周期板块基本面回暖 回顾本年交运行业的走势，截至2025年12月8日，交运板块涨幅在申万一级行业中排名靠后，走势明显 弱于大盘。细分到子板块，公路、铁路、港口等重资产+弱周期板块年初至今走势相对较弱，而航运航 空等周期类板块走势相对较强。我们认为下半年反内卷的政策执行对交运强周期板块的股价产生了较为 积极的影响。 2026年展望：重视反内卷受益板块及高确定性个股 我们认为与今年下半年类似的，26年行业需要重点关注的依旧是反内卷和高确定性两条主线。今年国家 层面对反内卷的重视程度明显提升，反内卷对于行业的影响大概率会长期化，并对26年相关行业的股价 走势造成重要影响。因此我们建议持续关注受益于反内卷的相关板块，包括航空 ...