商贸零售 商贸零售 2025 年 10 月 12 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《吉宏股份预告高增长，关注三季度 高景气赛道公司 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.9.28 《医美化妆品 8 月月报：锦波生物胶 原蛋白冻干纤维获药用辅料登记，珀 莱雅拟赴港上市—行业点评报告》 -2025.9.27 《潮宏基订货会火热举办，优质新品 受加盟商欢迎—行业周报》-2025.9.21 国庆假期消费稳步恢复，关注年轻时尚黄金优质品牌 ——行业周报 黄泽鹏（分析师） 姚慕宇（联系人） huangzepeng@kysec.cn yaomuyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125040021 国庆假期消费稳步恢复，关注年轻时尚黄金优质品牌 国庆期间出行、餐饮、消费等各细分方面均有稳步复苏趋势，出行方面，国庆中 秋假日 8 天，全国国内出游 8.88 亿人次，较 2024 年国庆节假日 7 天增加 1.23 亿人次，国内出游总花费 8090.06 亿元，较 2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry index decreased by 4.32% in the week of September 22-26, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.21% [6][13] - The report highlights the strong performance of certain companies, such as Jihong Co., which is expected to achieve a net profit of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55-65% [4][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [7][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2281.69 points, ranking 29th among 31 primary industries [6][13] - The brand cosmetics sector experienced the smallest decline of 1.31% during the week, while the watch and jewelry sector led with a year-to-date increase of 26.87% [18][20] Company Performance Highlights - Jihong Co. is expected to achieve a net profit of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, driven by its dual business model of cross-border e-commerce and packaging [4][26] - Old Puhuang reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 250.9%, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [36][37] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 44.3% [39] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in the gold and jewelry sector, such as Old Puhuang and Chao Hong Ji, which are expected to benefit from emotional consumption trends [7][31] - Emphasize the importance of offline retail companies that adapt to consumer trends, recommending companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [31][32] - Highlight the potential of domestic beauty brands, recommending companies like Mao Ge Ping and Po Lai Ya, which are positioned well in the high-end market [32][33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry is experiencing a shift towards emotional consumption, with brands that possess differentiated product capabilities and deep consumer insights gaining traction [31] - The report highlights the strong performance of the jewelry sector, particularly in high-end and fashion segments, driven by consumer preferences and innovative marketing strategies [31][39] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index closed at 2384.72 points, down 0.51% for the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell 1.30% [6][13] - Year-to-date, the retail index has increased by 6.51%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's 13.97% rise [13][15] Key Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the successful autumn ordering meeting of Chao Hong Ji, showcasing strong demand for new products rooted in traditional craftsmanship and innovative designs [25][26] - The jewelry sector, particularly the high-end and fashion categories, is benefiting from emotional consumption trends, with brands like Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji recommended for investment [31][39] Company Performance Highlights - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for H1 2025, a 250.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [33][36] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 19.5% increase, with a net profit of 331 million yuan, up 44.3% [39][40] - The report also highlights the performance of other companies such as Mao Ge Ping and Ru Ben, which are experiencing significant growth in the cosmetics sector [32][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the emotional consumption theme, particularly in the jewelry and cosmetics sectors, with specific recommendations for Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Mao Ge Ping [7][31][32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking," which aims to reconstruct the trust framework in offline services through real navigation and travel behavior data [23][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2396.85 points, up 0.85% for the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.52% [12][20] - Among retail sub-sectors, the supermarket sector had the highest weekly increase of 4.78%, while the watch and jewelry sector led with a year-to-date increase of 35.68% [14][18] Industry Dynamics - The launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking" is positioned as a significant step for Alibaba to transition from a navigation platform to a comprehensive local service platform, enhancing user experience and trust [23][27] - The ranking system incorporates real user behavior and credit filtering to provide authentic feedback, potentially disrupting the existing "to-store" business landscape dominated by Meituan and Dianping [27][29] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on differentiated gold and jewelry brands with deep consumer insights, recommending companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [6][31] - Investment Theme 2: Highlight retail enterprises that adapt to trends and actively explore changes, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][29] - Investment Theme 3: Emphasize high-quality domestic beauty brands with differentiated capabilities, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][30] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][30] Company Performance Highlights - Laopu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 250.9%, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [38][39] - Chaohongji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 19.5% increase, with a net profit of 331 million yuan, up 44.3% [41][42] - Maogeping reported a revenue of 2.588 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 31.3% increase, with a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [31][34]

Core Viewpoint - 毛戈平化妆品股份有限公司 has reported strong financial performance post-IPO, with a focus on expanding into international markets while maintaining high profit margins and unique business strategies [2][6][17]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [2][17]. - The gross margin was 84.2%, slightly down from 84.9% year-on-year, but still high within the industry [2][6]. - The net profit growth rate outpaced revenue growth, indicating strong profitability [6]. Business Segments - The main revenue contributors are makeup, skincare, and makeup artistry training, with the skincare segment showing a growth rate of 33.4%, surpassing the makeup segment's growth of 31.1% [8][9]. - The makeup artistry training segment saw a decline of 5.9% to 67.3 million yuan, attributed to a strategic decision to control enrollment and enhance service quality [8][9]. Sales Channels - 毛戈平 employs a dual-channel strategy, balancing online and offline sales, with offline revenue reaching 1.224 billion yuan (up 26.6%) and online revenue at 1.297 billion yuan (up 39%) [9][8]. - The company has established a significant offline presence with 409 counters and over 2,800 beauty consultants, creating a unique service experience that enhances customer loyalty [9][8]. Market Position and Strategy - 毛戈平 has positioned itself as a high-end brand, successfully competing with international brands by offering products at premium prices, such as a powder priced at 354 yuan and a face mask at 715 yuan [16][17]. - The brand's strategy includes entering international markets with plans for department store counters and online stores, which presents new challenges in diverse cultural and competitive environments [2][17]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite strong growth, 毛戈平 faces rising cost pressures, with sales and distribution expenses increasing by 24.8% to 1.169 billion yuan, which is 45.2% of total revenue [9][17]. - The average product price has decreased from 163.8 yuan to 157 yuan, indicating increased market competition [9]. - The new perfume line generated only 11.41 million yuan in revenue, accounting for just 0.4% of total revenue, highlighting the need for new growth drivers [17].

Core Viewpoint - Mao Geping Cosmetics Co., Ltd. has reported strong financial performance post-IPO, with a revenue of 2.588 billion yuan and a net profit of 670 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 31.3% and 36.1% respectively, while also planning to expand into overseas markets [1][4][12]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 84.2%, slightly down from 84.9% year-on-year, but still remains high within the industry [1]. - Revenue from the core makeup segment was 1.422 billion yuan, accounting for 55% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 31.1% [4]. - The skincare segment outperformed, generating 1.087 billion yuan, representing 42% of total revenue and a year-on-year growth of 33.4% [4]. - The makeup art training business saw a decline of 5.9% to 67.3 million yuan, attributed to a strategic decision to control enrollment and enhance service quality [4][9]. - Online sales reached 1.297 billion yuan, growing by 39%, while offline sales were 1.224 billion yuan, up by 26.6% [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Mao Geping ranked first in the latest Hurun list of China's top 50 makeup brands, surpassing competitors like Carzi Lan and Huaxizi [4]. - The brand's unique "bone structure makeup method" has created a high repurchase barrier and enhanced consumer experience [4]. - The company has established 409 counters across 120 cities, with a significant presence in mid to high-end commercial projects [13]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite strong growth, the average product price decreased from 163.8 yuan to 157 yuan, indicating increased market competition [6]. - The company faces rising cost pressures, with sales and distribution expenses increasing by 24.8% to 1.169 billion yuan, accounting for 45.2% of total revenue [5]. - New business segments, particularly the perfume line, generated only 11.41 million yuan, representing 0.4% of total revenue, indicating a need for these segments to scale effectively [14].

Core Viewpoint - Mao Geping Cosmetics Co., Ltd. has reported strong financial performance post-IPO, with a strategic focus on expanding into overseas markets while maintaining robust growth in domestic sales [1][9]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [1]. - The revenue growth rate for net profit exceeded that of total revenue, indicating strong profitability [1]. Business Segments - The core makeup segment generated 1.422 billion yuan, accounting for 55% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 31.1% [2]. - The skincare segment outperformed, with revenue of 1.087 billion yuan, representing 42% of total revenue and a growth rate of 33.4% [3]. - The makeup art training business saw a decline of 5.9%, with revenue at 67.3 million yuan, attributed to a strategic decision to control enrollment and enhance service quality [3]. Sales Channels - The company employs a dual-channel strategy, balancing online and offline sales, with offline revenue reaching 1.224 billion yuan (up 26.6%) and online revenue at 1.297 billion yuan (up 39%) [4]. - Mao Geping has established a significant offline presence with 409 counters and over 2,800 beauty consultants, creating a unique service experience that enhances customer loyalty [4]. Cost and Pricing Pressure - Sales and distribution expenses increased by 24.8% to 1.169 billion yuan, constituting 45.2% of total revenue, with marketing expenses exceeding 540 million yuan [5]. - The average product price decreased from 163.8 yuan to 157 yuan, indicating increased market competition [5]. Brand Strategy and Market Position - The brand has a high-end positioning strategy, with a focus on direct entry into international high-end markets, successfully competing with global brands [7][10]. - The company has established a collaborative system of "brand + channel + education," which has created a strong competitive barrier and a stable cash flow [8]. IPO Journey - Mao Geping has faced multiple challenges in its IPO journey, including withdrawing from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and subsequently applying to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9]. - Despite these challenges, the company has shown impressive financial growth, with revenue increasing from 1.577 billion yuan in 2021 to 2.886 billion yuan in 2023, and a gross margin of 84.8% [9][10]. New Business Development - The newly launched perfume line generated only 11.41 million yuan in revenue, accounting for a mere 0.4% of total revenue, indicating that it has not yet achieved significant scale [11]. - The company faces the challenge of identifying new growth drivers as initial growth momentum slows, particularly in the context of rising online marketing costs and stagnant training business growth [11].

Core Insights - 毛戈平化妆品股份有限公司 reported strong financial performance in its first half post-IPO, with revenue of 25.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit of 6.70 billion yuan, up 36.1% [1][10] - The company is strategically planning to enter overseas markets, aiming to establish both department store counters and online sales channels [1][12] - 毛戈平's revenue sources include makeup, skincare, and makeup artistry training, with the latter showing a decline due to a controlled enrollment strategy [2][3] Financial Performance - The net profit growth rate outpaced revenue growth, indicating strong profitability [2] - The core makeup segment generated 14.22 billion yuan, accounting for 55% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 31.1% [2] - Skincare revenue reached 10.87 billion yuan, representing 42% of total revenue and a growth of 33.4% [3] Business Segments - The makeup artistry training segment saw a decline of 5.9% to 673 million yuan, reflecting a reduction in growth momentum [3] - The company has a balanced performance in both online and offline channels, with offline sales reaching 12.24 billion yuan (up 26.6%) and online sales at 12.97 billion yuan (up 39%) [4] Cost and Pricing Pressure - Sales and distribution expenses increased by 24.8% to 11.69 billion yuan, constituting 45.2% of total revenue [5] - The average product price decreased from 163.8 yuan to 157 yuan, indicating pricing pressure due to intensified market competition [5] Market Position and Strategy - 毛戈平 has established a significant presence in high-end retail, with 409 counters across over 120 cities, including major shopping centers [11] - The brand's high-end positioning is reflected in its pricing strategy, with products priced competitively against international brands [11] - The company aims to leverage its unique "Oriental Bone Structure Makeup Method" as a key differentiator in both domestic and international markets [1][12] Future Challenges - The new perfume line generated only 11.41 million yuan, indicating it has not yet achieved significant scale [12] - 毛戈平 faces the challenge of identifying new growth drivers as initial growth momentum slows, particularly in the context of rising online marketing costs and stagnant training business growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth exceeding 30%, aligning with expectations, and demonstrating sustained momentum in high-end brand positioning [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue reached 2.588 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [1] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.179 billion, 1.536 billion, and 1.939 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.41, 3.13, and 3.95 yuan [1] Group 2: Business Segmentation - In H1 2025, the makeup, skincare, and makeup art training segments generated revenues of 1.422 billion, 1.087 billion, and 67 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.1%, 33.4%, and a decline of 5.9% respectively [2] - Online and offline channels achieved revenues of 1.297 billion and 1.224 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 39.0% and 26.6% [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 84.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, with specific margins for makeup, skincare, fragrance, and makeup art training at 82.7%, 87.5%, 62.9%, and 77.6% respectively [2] - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 45.2%, 6.9%, and 0.6%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.3, 1.5, and 0.2 percentage points, indicating stable cost management [2] Group 4: Product Development and Market Expansion - The company continues to leverage synergies between makeup and skincare, with significant sales in high-end products such as the small gold fan powder and caviar cushion, each exceeding 200 million yuan [3] - The fragrance segment is expanding with new launches like "Guoyun Ningxiang" and "Wendao Dongfang," achieving sales of 11.41 million yuan [3] - The skincare segment saw retail sales of the caviar mask surpassing 600 million yuan, accounting for nearly 60% of skincare sales, with strong performance from key products [3] Group 5: Channel Strategy and Customer Engagement - The company has expanded its offline presence with 405 self-operated and 32 distributor counters across over 120 cities, achieving a repurchase rate of 30.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [3] - Online sales during the 2025 618 promotion grew over 70%, and the company secured the top position in the Douyin makeup category during the Good Goods Festival, indicating effective online marketing strategies [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.588 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.3%, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [4][5] - The company is recognized as a rare high-end domestic beauty brand, demonstrating stable performance even under high base conditions [4] - The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.179 billion, 1.536 billion, and 1.939 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.41, 3.13, and 3.95 yuan [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the expected revenue is 5.184 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 33.4% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.179 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [7] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 84.4% for 2025 [7] - The P/E ratio for 2025 is projected at 35.7 times [7]