商贸零售 商贸零售 2026 年 01 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《潮宏基多渠道高效推新，毛戈平推 出高端冻龄系列 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.28 《海南自贸港封关正式启动，首日数 据表现亮眼—行业周报》-2025.12.21 《11 月社零同比+1.3%，整体增速有 所承压—行业点评报告》-2025.12.15 "人、货、场"迭代升级，关注情绪消费赛道机会 ——行业周报 黄泽鹏（分析师） 李昕恬（联系人） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 lixintian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125100021 "人、货、场"演进升级，情绪价值驱动消费意向 2025 年伴随国家消费刺激政策陆续出台及线下业态积极调改变革，零售业态 "人、货、场"演进升级，"品质+服务"驱动下，情绪消费为行业带来新机会。 （1）人：情绪价值驱动消费意向，"研究型消费+悦己导向+长期主义"成 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry is experiencing a transformation with a focus on emotional consumption and innovative product offerings, particularly in the jewelry and cosmetics sectors [6][33] - Companies like潮宏基 and毛戈平 are leveraging multi-channel strategies to enhance brand visibility and product sales, indicating a strong market presence [26][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index closed at 2462.73 points, with a weekly increase of 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.88% [5][15] - The retail sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 10.00%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's 18.26% rise [15][19] Company Highlights - **潮宏基**: Achieved a revenue of 62.37 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, up 28.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.17 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% increase [42] - **毛戈平**: Launched the "琉光赋活" skincare series, set to debut on January 1, 2026, focusing on high-end skincare needs [31] - **周大福**: Reported a revenue of 389.86 billion HKD for FY2026H1, a slight decrease of 1.1%, but with a net profit increase of 0.1% [39] Investment Themes - **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending潮宏基 and老铺黄金 as key players [6][33] - **Offline Retail**: Emphasis on companies adapting to market changes, with recommendations for永辉超市 and爱婴室 [6][33] - **Cosmetics**: Highlighting brands that innovate with emotional value and safe ingredients, recommending毛戈平 and珀莱雅 [6][34] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Targeting differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical aesthetic chains, with recommendations for爱美客 and科笛-B [6][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry is experiencing a shift towards quality growth and long-term strategies, moving away from reliance on traffic bonuses [25][26] - The industry is focusing on emotional consumption themes, with high-quality companies in sectors like gold jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics being highlighted as investment opportunities [5][29][30] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index rose by 3.45% during the week of November 24-28, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.05 percentage points [4][13] - The multi-format retail sector showed the highest growth this week, with a 6.18% increase, while the jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with a 22.11% increase [18][19] Retail Insights: Brand Building and Technological Aesthetics - The 2025 Cosmetics Annual Conference highlighted the importance of brand building and technological aesthetics for domestic beauty brands to achieve growth [25][26] - Companies like Shiseido and Shanghai Jahwa are focusing on quality and profitability, while Elysian Group is transitioning from operational to technological drivers [26][27] Investment Recommendations - **Gold Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [5][29] - **Offline Retail**: Highlighting companies adapting to trends and exploring AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [5][30] - **Cosmetics**: Emphasizing brands that meet emotional value and safety innovation, recommending companies like Maogeping and Proya [5][30] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Targeting differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical chains, recommending companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B [5][30] Company-Specific Insights - **Chow Tai Fook**: Achieved revenue of HKD 38.986 billion in FY2026H1, with a slight decline in revenue but a stable profit margin [36][37] - **潮宏基 (Chao Hong Ji)**: Reported a revenue increase of 28.4% in Q1-Q3 2025, with a strong performance in Q3 [39][40] - **永辉超市 (Yonghui Supermarket)**: Experienced a revenue decline of 22.2% in Q1-Q3 2025, but is undergoing a transformation towards quality retail [43][44]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Mao Ge Ping, has proposed a restricted stock incentive plan aimed at enhancing its long-term incentive mechanism and aligning the interests of shareholders, the company, and management to promote sustainable development [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year [1] - For the third quarter of 2025, sales on various platforms showed significant growth, with Taobao, Douyin, and JD platforms reporting year-on-year increases of 25.4%, 55.6%, and 45.7% respectively [1] Group 2: Sales Performance During Promotions - In October, during the "Double Eleven" promotional period, sales on Taobao, Douyin, and JD platforms grew by 60.5%, 39.8%, and 22.3% year-on-year [2] - The brand entered the top 20 in the beauty category on Tmall for the first time, ranking 20th, and secured the 1st position in the domestic makeup category on JD [2] - Several key products performed exceptionally well, with annual sales exceeding 200,000 for the Xiaojin Fan powder and over 100,000 for the Caviar Cushion Foundation and Caviar Mask [2] Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Future Outlook - The company is reinforcing its high-end beauty positioning, with strong growth in main categories and channels [2] - The product range is expanding into fragrances, with new series launched to enhance the product matrix [2] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.21 billion, 1.58 billion, and 2.04 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.46, 3.22, and 4.16 yuan, and a "buy" rating is upheld [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a restricted stock incentive plan by the company Mao Ge Ping, aimed at enhancing long-term incentive mechanisms and aligning the interests of shareholders, the company, and management [4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year [5]. - For the third quarter of 2025, sales on various platforms showed significant growth: Taobao increased by 25.4%, Douyin by 55.6%, and JD.com by 45.7% [5]. - During the "Double Eleven" sales event, sales continued to perform well, with Taobao, Douyin, and JD.com showing year-on-year growth of 60.5%, 39.8%, and 22.3% respectively [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Product Development - The company has strengthened its high-end beauty positioning, with significant growth in its main product categories and channels [6]. - The product range has expanded from makeup and skincare to include fragrances, with new series such as Guo Yun Ning Xiang and Wen Dao Dong Fang [6]. - The company has successfully entered high-end department stores, including Beijing SKP and Chongqing Xingguang 68, enhancing its offline presence [6]. Group 3: Sales Performance and Rankings - The company achieved notable rankings during the "Double Eleven" event, entering the top 20 in the beauty category on Tmall and ranking first in the domestic makeup category on JD.com [5]. - Several key products have performed exceptionally well, with annual sales exceeding 200,000 units for the Xiaojin Fan powder and over 100,000 units for the Caviar Cushion Foundation and Caviar Mask [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has launched a restricted stock incentive plan to enhance its long-term development confidence and align the interests of shareholders, the company, and management [1] - The company's performance has been strong, with a 31.3% year-on-year increase in revenue to 2.59 billion yuan and a 36.1% increase in net profit to 670 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company is focusing on high-end beauty positioning, expanding its product range into fragrances, and has seen significant growth in both online and offline channels [3] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a 31.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [2] - Sales on major platforms during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival showed strong growth, with year-on-year increases of 60.5% on Taobao, 39.8% on Douyin, and 22.3% on JD [2] Product and Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its high-end beauty positioning and has expanded its product categories to include fragrances, with successful product launches in various high-end department stores [3] - The product matrix has been enriched with new series such as Guo Yun Ning Xiang and Wen Dao Dong Fang [3] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.21 billion yuan, 1.58 billion yuan, and 2.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.46 yuan, 3.22 yuan, and 4.16 yuan [3][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 34, 26, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a recovery in consumer spending, with a focus on high-quality brands and innovative products [6][27] - The approval of the first recombinant type I collagen by Juzi Biotech opens new opportunities in the medical beauty sector, enhancing the company's product matrix [22][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption trends driving growth in various segments, particularly in jewelry and cosmetics [27][28] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail index closed at 2288.31 points, up 0.46% for the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 2.88% [5][12] - Year-to-date, the retail index has increased by 2.21%, lagging behind the overall market performance [12][15] - Among retail segments, the professional chain sector saw the highest weekly increase of 1.96%, while the jewelry sector led year-to-date with a 23.33% rise [14][17] Industry Dynamics - Juzi Biotech's recombinant type I collagen product received NMPA approval, marking a significant advancement in the medical beauty market [22][23] - The product is the first of its kind in China, aimed at facial dermal filling and wrinkle correction, indicating strong growth potential in the high-value collagen injection market [22][24] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in the emotional consumption theme, particularly in the jewelry sector, with recommendations for brands like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [6][27] - Emphasize retail companies that are actively transforming and exploring new strategies, such as Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][27] - Highlight domestic beauty brands with strong performance during promotional events, recommending companies like Juzi Biotech, Pola, and Maogeping [28][30] - Consider differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical institutions, recommending companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B [28][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The consumption during the National Day holiday showed steady recovery, with significant increases in travel and retail sales, indicating a positive trend for the retail sector [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and highlights high-quality companies in high-growth sectors, particularly in gold jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [6][33] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2288.03 points, with a weekly increase of 0.28%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.80% [5][12] - The professional chain sector saw the largest increase this week, while the watch and jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with an increase of 28.18% [14][17] Retail Insights - During the National Day holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, marking an increase of 1.23 billion trips and 108.19 billion yuan compared to the previous year [23][24] - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales during the holiday, with daily sales in related industries growing by 4.5% [23][25] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality gold jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Laopuhuang and Chaohongji [6][33] - Emphasize offline retail companies that adapt to trends, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][33] - Highlight domestic cosmetics brands with strong differentiation, recommending brands like Maogeping and Porcelain [6][34] - Suggest medical aesthetics companies with differentiated product lines, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][34] Company Performance Highlights - Laopuhuang reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 250.9%, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [38][39] - Chaohongji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 19.5% increase, with a net profit of 331 million yuan, up 44.3% [35] - Maogeping's revenue reached 1.769 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 30.8% increase, with a net profit of 186 million yuan, up 5.2% [35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry index decreased by 4.32% in the week of September 22-26, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.21% [6][13] - The report highlights the strong performance of certain companies, such as Jihong Co., which is expected to achieve a net profit of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55-65% [4][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [7][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2281.69 points, ranking 29th among 31 primary industries [6][13] - The brand cosmetics sector experienced the smallest decline of 1.31% during the week, while the watch and jewelry sector led with a year-to-date increase of 26.87% [18][20] Company Performance Highlights - Jihong Co. is expected to achieve a net profit of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, driven by its dual business model of cross-border e-commerce and packaging [4][26] - Old Puhuang reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 250.9%, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [36][37] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 44.3% [39] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in the gold and jewelry sector, such as Old Puhuang and Chao Hong Ji, which are expected to benefit from emotional consumption trends [7][31] - Emphasize the importance of offline retail companies that adapt to consumer trends, recommending companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [31][32] - Highlight the potential of domestic beauty brands, recommending companies like Mao Ge Ping and Po Lai Ya, which are positioned well in the high-end market [32][33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry is experiencing a shift towards emotional consumption, with brands that possess differentiated product capabilities and deep consumer insights gaining traction [31] - The report highlights the strong performance of the jewelry sector, particularly in high-end and fashion segments, driven by consumer preferences and innovative marketing strategies [31][39] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index closed at 2384.72 points, down 0.51% for the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell 1.30% [6][13] - Year-to-date, the retail index has increased by 6.51%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's 13.97% rise [13][15] Key Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the successful autumn ordering meeting of Chao Hong Ji, showcasing strong demand for new products rooted in traditional craftsmanship and innovative designs [25][26] - The jewelry sector, particularly the high-end and fashion categories, is benefiting from emotional consumption trends, with brands like Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji recommended for investment [31][39] Company Performance Highlights - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for H1 2025, a 250.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [33][36] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 19.5% increase, with a net profit of 331 million yuan, up 44.3% [39][40] - The report also highlights the performance of other companies such as Mao Ge Ping and Ru Ben, which are experiencing significant growth in the cosmetics sector [32][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the emotional consumption theme, particularly in the jewelry and cosmetics sectors, with specific recommendations for Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Mao Ge Ping [7][31][32]