1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market in 2025 shows significant supply - demand imbalance, with high inventory of laying hens, young age structure, slow old - hen culling, limited demand, and over - capacity throughout the year. Egg prices have bottomed out multiple times, and farmers are under great pressure and may accelerate the culling of old hens. In December, as the inventory of laying hens decreases and holiday stocking demand starts, the market is shifting from loose to tight - balance, but the upward space of egg prices is still restricted by substitute prices and terminal consumption. Mid - to long - term capacity reduction will dominate the probability of market reversal [8][9] - The strategy is that the main contract continues to fluctuate widely at a low level, with the pressure level referring to 2980 - 3000; mid - term, long positions in far - month contracts can be arranged, and call options can be bought with a light position [9] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - The national egg spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly within the range this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from last week, a decline of 0.34%. As the egg price rises to the current level, the market trading has become cautious again, and the egg price may fall at the end of the month. In November 2025, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. It is expected that the inventory in December will still decline but remain at a high level in the past five - year average. The egg market is expected to shift from loose to tight - balance, and the egg price will be supported by fundamentals, but the upward space is restricted [8][9] - The strategy is to refer to the pressure level of 2980 - 3000 for the main contract, and arrange long positions in far - month contracts and buy call options with a light position in the mid - term [9] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot: The national egg spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from last week, a decline of 0.34%. The price increase has weakened, and there may be a decline at the end of the month [8][20] 3.3 Supply - side - Inventory of laying hens: In November 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 8.46%. It is expected that the inventory in December will still decline but remain at a high level in the past five - year average [8][33] - Chicken - chick replenishment: The average price of commercial chicken chicks in key regions this week was 2.71 yuan/feather, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.10%. The market showed a small rebound, and the replenishment enthusiasm of some breeding units was stimulated, but the overall replenishment sentiment was still divided [38] - Culling of old hens: The egg price is weak, and the supply of old hens in November increased month - on - month. The culling enthusiasm of breeding units increased, and the market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price continued to be under pressure [40] 3.4 Demand - side - Egg demand shows seasonal characteristics. The price usually reaches the lowest level around April, the highest level in the first half of the year at the end of May, and the highest level in the year from September to mid - October. After that, the price declines and stabilizes from November to December [65] 3.5 Cost and Profit - Feed price: The cost of egg production is mainly affected by the prices of corn and soybean meal. In 2026, the annual average price of corn may slightly decrease, and the average price center of soybean meal may also decline slightly. Although the feed cost is expected to decrease by 1% - 2%, the overall cost of the industry is generally above 3.5 yuan/jin [71][75] - Breeding profit: This week, the cost per jin of eggs was 3.51 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. The profit was - 0.52 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56%. The breeding cost per chicken was 132.43 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%, and the breeding profit was 8.50 yuan per chicken, a month - on - month decrease of 38.66% [84]

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is experiencing a continuous decline in prices despite being in the traditional demand peak season, driven by supply-demand imbalance and pessimistic market sentiment [1][3]. Supply Side Pressure - The inventory of laying hens remains at a historical high of 1.3557 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 1.19% and a year-on-year increase of 6.197%, leading to significant downward pressure on egg prices [1][3]. - The ongoing increase in new laying hens exacerbates market supply pressure, counteracting the seasonal demand growth expected in late August [3]. - Egg prices have been below the cost line for nearly four months, resulting in losses for egg producers and reducing their willingness to replenish stocks [3]. Demand Side Constraints - High temperatures and weak egg prices have led traders to adopt a "just-in-time" purchasing strategy, with no significant new demand drivers in the short term [4]. - The market sentiment is pessimistic, characterized by excess supply and high inventory levels, which are expected to limit the price rebound potential [4]. - Although demand may be delayed due to the postponement of the Mid-Autumn Festival, it is anticipated that suppressed demand could return as the holiday approaches, but the overall price increase is expected to be limited due to high supply levels [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with the 09 contract hitting a record low. The spot market also showed weakness, with prices in both the main production and sales areas dropping. The imbalance between supply and demand in the egg market has intensified, with high supply and weak demand due to factors such as the increase in newly - laid hens, high - temperature weather, and low consumer confidence. Although the market demand is expected to enter the peak season in mid - to - late August, the price increase of eggs during the peak season may be weaker than expected due to the pressure on the breeding side [5][7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Trends Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with the 09 contract hitting a record low. By the end of last Friday, the JD2509 contract was reported at 3362 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.41%, with a trading volume of 153,259 lots and an open interest of 203,664 lots [15]. (2) Spot Price - In the main production areas, the average egg price last week was 3.01 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty, or 7.10%. In the main sales areas, the average price was 3.04 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20 yuan per catty, or 6.17%. The decline in prices in the production areas affected the sales areas, and downstream procurement became more cautious [19]. (3) Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken chicks was 3.11 yuan per chick, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 yuan per chick, or 4.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.89%. The current market is characterized by an abundant supply of chicken chicks and weak demand [23]. (4) Old Hen Price - Last week, the average price of old hens in the representative market was 5.71 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 yuan per catty, or 3.22%. The decline in egg prices hit the confidence of farmers, increasing the willingness to sell, but the terminal demand was weak [27]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: In July, the national inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.292 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.04%. The number of newly - laid hens has increased month - on - month [32]. - **Production Area Shipment Volume**: The weekly shipment volume of the representative market in the main production areas was 6216.03 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.68%. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and downstream purchasers are cautious [36]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens at the sample points was 452,200, a week - on - week increase of 1.53%. The average slaughter age was 503 days, unchanged from the previous week. Some farmers chose to slaughter old hens, but most still maintained a pressure - stocking state [40]. (2) Demand Side - **Sales Area Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume in the Beijing and Guangdong markets decreased last week. In Beijing, the trading activity was low in the first half of the week and increased slightly at the end of the week. In Guangdong, the purchasing enthusiasm increased in the middle and late weeks [45]. - **Sales Area Sales Volume**: As of last Thursday, the weekly egg sales volume was 6003.38 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.44%. The sales volume was slightly boosted by the downstream replenishment demand [49]. (3) Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.89 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.15 days. The egg inventory increased week - on - week due to increased supply and weak demand [53]. (4) Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.54 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per catty, or 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.53 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan per catty, or 82.76%. The increase in soybean meal prices pushed up the feed cost [57]. 3. Market Outlook and Strategy - The current supply of eggs remains high, and the imbalance between supply and demand restricts the increase in egg prices during the peak season. Although the demand is expected to enter the peak season in mid - to - late August, the price increase may be weaker than expected. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds in the medium term [8][58][59].