| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3484 | 39 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -27941 | 5118 | | 期货市场 | 克) | | | | | | | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(9-1):(日,元/500千克) 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -20 | 18 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 150786 | -22760 | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 53 2.55 | -28 0 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | -931 | -35 | | | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 110.89 | -1.46 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 108.68 | 11.92 | | 上游情况 | 主产区平均价:蛋鸡苗(周,元/羽) | 3.9 | -0.1 新增雏鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 106.78 | ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货低位小幅回升 期价震荡收高 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：轻仓试多。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收高，08合约收盘价为3618元/500千克，较前一周+62元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：随着节后鸡蛋步入季节性需求淡季，且目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新 开产压力较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足。同时，受湿热天气影响，鸡蛋存储成本增加，下游经销商采 购谨慎，蛋价持续处于同期偏低水平，养殖端也持续处于亏损状态。不过，价格来到相对低位后， 老鸡淘汰进程有所加快，降低存栏预期。盘面来看，期价跌至低估值区域后，近来有止跌回暖倾 向。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 来源：大商所 wind 图2、大商所鸡蛋指 ...

中泰期货：鸡蛋主力临近限仓，持仓下降或带动盘面小幅波动 现货压力仍较大，缺少上涨驱动，不过下方支撑较强，产业存冷库和换羽的意愿较高，可能导致供应压 力后移至中秋旺季。操作上建议反弹波段做空07-10合约，追空需谨慎，注意止盈。上日行情波动原 因：昨日现货维持弱势，存冷库蛋较多，供应压力后移，市场对07-10等中秋合约预期转弱；同时中秋 集中淘鸡的预期和玉米豆粕上涨带动更远月01等合约偏强运行。主力07合约临近限仓，持仓下降或带动 盘面小幅波动。 光大期货：鸡蛋盘面暂时观望 6月13日盘中，鸡蛋期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至3564.00元。截止收盘，鸡蛋主力合约 报3556.00元，涨幅2.15%。 鸡蛋期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 中泰期货 鸡蛋主力临近限仓，持仓下降或带动盘面小幅波动 光大期货 鸡蛋盘面暂时观望 五矿期货 鸡蛋盘面近月仍为挤升水的逻辑，逢高抛空为主 短期产区蛋价多稳少落，销区采购成本多数稳定，少数下跌。终端消化平淡，贸易商随销随采，销区各 市场鸡蛋价格部分下跌，少数稳定。供给端来看，8月前新增供给量延续增加。梅雨季对蛋价的利空影 响不变 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently in a situation where supply is relatively abundant due to high laying - hen inventory and new - laying hens coming into production. The demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the hot and humid weather increases storage costs, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream dealers. Egg prices are at a relatively low level, and the breeding side is in a loss state. However, the supply - loose expectation has been reflected in the futures price, and if the spot price remains low, it may increase the enthusiasm for old - hen culling and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the long - term price. The spot price drags down the near - term futures price, while the long - term contracts show a tendency to stop falling and recover. The strategy suggestion is to lightly test long positions in long - term contracts [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the egg futures 08 contract bottomed out and rebounded, with a closing price of 3556 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 3 yuan/500 kilograms compared to the previous week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: After the festival, the egg market enters the seasonal demand off - peak. With high laying - hen inventory and new - laying hens coming into production, the supply is sufficient. The hot and humid weather increases storage costs, and downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing. Egg prices are at a low level, and the breeding side is in a loss state. If the spot price remains low, it may affect the laying - hen inventory, which is beneficial to long - term prices. The spot price drags down the near - term futures price, while the long - term contracts show signs of recovery [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Lightly test long positions in long - term contracts [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 08 contract bottomed out and rebounded, with a position of 228,245 lots, an increase of 40,890 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 7397, and the net short position increased slightly compared to last week [17]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [21]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 2608 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 187 yuan/500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 08 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 948 yuan/ton [27]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of egg futures was reported at 37 yuan/500 kilograms, at the lowest level in the same period [31]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of June 12, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.33 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.34 yuan/kg [37]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory and Replenishment**: As of March 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new - chick index was 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [42]. - **Supply Side - Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age was 510 days [48]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of June 12, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2406.27 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2880 yuan/ton [52]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of June 6, 2025, the egg - hen breeding profit was - 0.44 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - hen compound feed was 2.74 yuan/kg [59]. - **Egg - Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices**: As of June 6, 2025, the average price of egg - hen chicks in the main production areas was 4.1 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.26 yuan/kg [61]. - **Egg Exports**: In April 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,792.51 tons, an increase of 1680.12 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 15.12%, and a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons compared to the previous month [67]. 3.4 Representative Company - Information about Xiaoming Co., Ltd. includes a graph of its price - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [69].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 淘汰缓慢，梅雨天气蛋价继续探底 ——策略周报2025-06-09 作 者：刘四奎 执业证书编号：F3033884 交易咨询编号：Z0011291 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 分析师微信 公司官方微信 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【供应方面】：现阶段，新增产能不断释放，新增产能不断 | | | | | 释放，落后产能开始出现加速，但是仍不明显，叠加天气原 | | | | | 因，供应增加明显，下游库存偏低，整体供应压力继续集中 | | | | | 释放。 | | | | | 【需求方面】：需求上，端午备货表现一般，市场进入疲软 | | | | | 状态，南方温湿天气逐渐影响蛋品质量，整体支撑有限。 | 1、反弹后的做空。 | 1、上游库存消化情况 | | | 【成本利润】：玉米价格不断走强，豆粕现货稳中回落。成 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 本段整体维持震荡偏强。目前饲料成本2.4元/斤左右，综合 | 2、继续JD反套为 | 2、假期消费提振情况 | | | ...