美国股市以连续第三年实现双位数百分比涨幅结束了2025年。始于2022年10月的这轮美股牛市，一直由对AI的乐观情绪、利率下降以及经济在衰退担忧中 持续增长所推动。标普500指数在2025年上涨超过16%，此前在2024年上涨23%，2023年上涨24%。不过，要在2026年连续第四年取得亮眼表现或许是个艰巨 的任务，需要强劲的企业盈利、立场偏鸽的美联储、以及持续强劲的人工智能(AI)相关支出。 许多市场策略师预计2026年美股将继续表现强劲，一些策略师对标普500指数的目标点位意味着超过10%的涨幅，其中包括德意志银行给出的8000点目标 ——这意味着该指数将上涨约17%。 CFRA首席投资策略师Sam Stovall表示，要再获得一年强劲的两位数百分比回报，市场需要"所有方面都全速运转"。Sam Stovall对2026年底的目标价为7400 点，这意味着较当前水平上涨8%。他表示："多重逆风让我觉得，虽然我们最终可能迎来一个出人意料的好年景，但我认为不会是又一个辉煌的年份。" 企业盈利和AI能否继续提供支撑? 美股估值的另外一大支撑来自对AI的热情，包括对基础设施的大规模投入以及对其应用可能出现的旺盛需 ...

Group 1 - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds reached a historical high of 3.215% amid concerns over a potentially more dovish Federal Reserve following President Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook [1] - Japan's debt burden, approximately 250% of GDP, complicates the government's goal of managing its finances as the Finance Ministry plans to request over 32 trillion yen (approximately 217.2 billion USD) for debt servicing costs in the next fiscal year's budget, marking a record amount [1] - The sensitivity of the Japanese market to changes in global interest rates is heightened, as Japan is the world's largest creditor with some of the lowest sovereign yields [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2023, Japan holds 2 trillion USD in U.S. assets, with rising U.S. bond yields contributing to this increase, indicating a synchronization of Japanese bond yields with U.S. yields [2] - Trump's attacks on Cook have intensified his efforts to influence monetary policy, undermining confidence in U.S. sovereign debt as a safe investment, which is particularly concerning for the Japanese bond market experiencing rising yields [2] - The ruling coalition's recent defeat in the Senate elections has empowered opposition parties advocating for consumption tax cuts, raising concerns about potential delays in discussions regarding supplementary budgets [2]

Group 1 - Fidelity International predicts gold prices may reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and central banks increasing gold reserves [1][2] - Ian Samson, a multi-asset fund manager, notes that the company remains bullish on gold, with some funds increasing their gold allocation from 5% to nearly 10% over the past year [1][2] - Gold prices have risen over 25% this year, driven by uncertainties from U.S. trade policies and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside continued central bank purchases [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs shares a similar optimistic outlook on gold prices, forecasting a potential rise to $4,000 per ounce, while Citigroup expresses a more cautious stance predicting a decline [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain current interest rates, but there may be dissent among officials advocating for support of the slowing labor market [2] - Samson highlights that gold typically benefits from a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, with ongoing central bank purchases and expanding fiscal deficits enhancing gold's appeal as a hard asset [3]