继续看好黄金珠宝产品的消费者喜爱度提升。根据中金大类资产团队研究，中美流动性共振主线下，黄 金仍是占优资产，地缘政治风险与全球安全格局的不确定性，也强化了黄金的战略配置价值。金价的较 好表现有望支持黄金珠宝产品的保值稀缺感和吸引力，我们继续看好黄金珠宝产品的消费者喜爱度提 升。 盈利预测与估值 维持公司FY26/27 EPS预测0.87/0.93 港元，当前股价对应14/13倍FY26/27 市盈率，维持跑赢行业评级。 我们继续看好公司的品牌力提升和渠道优化，但考虑行业估值波动，下调目标价13%至16.89 港元，对 应19 倍 FY26 市盈率，有37%的上行空间。 机构：中金公司 研究员：杨润渤/郭海燕 公司近况 据智通财经1，12 月19 日周大福年内第三次调整一口价黄金产品价格，部分产品价格上调幅度在 4%-16%之间。我们认为适度的价格调整有望维持公司的品牌高级感和良好的利润表现。 评论 价格调整助力周大福品牌高级感和盈利能力。2025 年以来金价呈波动上涨趋势，截至12 月18 日，上海 金交所AU9999 收盘价累计上涨59%。黄金珠宝公司为应对成本上行，也在调整产品价格向终端传递， 周大福3、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and increasing geopolitical risks, leading to expectations of heightened volatility in the gold market this week [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices rose by 2% to reach a new high, influenced by dovish remarks from Fed officials, particularly from the aggressive dovish stance of Milan, who suggested a continued rate cut at 50 basis points [1]. - The market sentiment remains optimistic due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the recognition of Palestine by several countries and Israel's aggressive stance [2]. - The expectation of increased volatility in gold prices is anticipated this week, especially with upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Powell and the latest core PCE inflation data [2]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Despite the high gold price of $3,700, there are no compelling reasons to short gold, as it remains a dominant monetary asset in global financial markets [3]. - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold due to diminishing confidence in the US dollar, driven by the US government's push for significant rate cuts amid rising inflation pressures [3]. - The current market environment is described as a "perfect storm" for gold and silver, with increasing appeal for safe-haven assets amid political divisions in the US and escalating tensions between NATO and Russia [3].

Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has boosted gold prices and injected upward momentum into the overall metal market [1] - Following the Jackson Hole meeting, market expectations for a rate cut in September have significantly increased, leading to a simultaneous rise in precious and industrial metal prices [1] - Gold's strategic value as a safe-haven asset has become more pronounced amid increasing global macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Group 2 - As of August 25, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 3.65%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Hunan Silver (10.00%) and Jiangxi Copper (8.77%) [3] - The Gold Stock ETF Fund (159322) increased by 3.68%, with a latest price of 1.3 yuan, and has shown a cumulative increase of 2.04% over the past month, ranking 1/6 among comparable funds [3] - The trading volume of the Gold Stock ETF Fund was active, with a turnover rate of 12.06% and a transaction value of 2.853 million yuan [3] Group 3 - The Gold Stock ETF Fund has seen a net value increase of 29.66% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 16.59% since inception [4] - The fund's longest consecutive monthly gain was 4 months, with a total increase of 31.09%, and an average return of 7.06% during up months [4] - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 1.35, ranking in the top 1/3 of comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [4] Group 4 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index accounted for 66.02% of the index, with Zijin Mining (601899) and Shandong Gold (600547) being the top two [5] - The top ten stocks include companies like Zhongjin Gold (600489) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988), reflecting a concentration in the gold mining sector [5] Group 5 - The stock performance of key companies in the gold sector shows positive trends, with Zijin Mining up by 6.15% and Shandong Gold by 3.32% [7] - The MACD golden cross signal formation indicates a favorable upward trend for these stocks [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the immense value of a metal-rich asteroid, estimated at 700 trillion euros (approximately 5.53 trillion yuan), which could theoretically provide about 87.5 billion euros (approximately 691.2 billion yuan) per person if distributed among the global population of around 8 billion [4] - NASA has launched the "Psyche" spacecraft in October 2023 to initiate a mission to explore this metal-rich asteroid, with an expected arrival at the target in 2029 [7] - As of July 29, the spot gold price increased by 0.13%, reaching $3,318.79 per ounce [11] Group 2 - Long-term perspectives indicate that in a macro environment characterized by low interest rates, high debt, and frequent geopolitical conflicts, the strategic value of gold is becoming more pronounced. Although gold's long-term returns may not match equities, its volatility is between stocks and bonds, showcasing its characteristics as a safe-haven asset [13] - Fidelity International predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a declining dollar, and continued accumulation by central banks [13] - Analysts suggest that the traditional factors influencing gold pricing, primarily the U.S. dollar fundamentals, are weakening. Factors such as global economic divergence and changes in trust among nations are driving a trend towards increased demand for gold from both residents and officials, contributing to rising gold prices [13]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, China's gold consumption decreased by 3.54% year-on-year, with jewelry consumption dropping significantly while investment in gold bars and coins surged by 23.69% due to high gold prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Consumption Trends - China's total gold consumption in the first half of 2025 was 505.205 tons, with jewelry consumption at 199.826 tons (down 26.00%) and gold bars and coins at 264.242 tons (up 23.69%) [4]. - The high gold prices have suppressed jewelry consumption, but products with strong design and high added value remain popular, benefiting retailers [4]. - Investment demand for gold bars and coins has significantly increased due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, highlighting gold's role as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. Group 2: Gold Production and Imports - Domestic gold production in the first half of 2025 was 179.083 tons, a slight decrease of 0.31% year-on-year, while imported gold production rose to 76.678 tons, an increase of 2.29% [4]. - The high gold prices and policies promoting high-quality development have created historical opportunities for gold enterprises, leading to increased profit margins despite stable production levels [4]. Group 3: Gold Prices and Market Dynamics - As of June 30, 2025, the international gold price reached $3,287.45 per ounce, a 24.31% increase since the beginning of the year, with an average price of $3,066.59 per ounce for the first half, up 39.21% year-on-year [5]. - Domestic gold prices also rose, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange closing at 764.43 yuan per gram, a 24.50% increase since the start of the year [5]. - The demand for gold ETFs in China increased significantly, with a net increase of 84.771 tons in the first half of 2025, representing a 173.73% year-on-year growth [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term strategic value of gold is expected to increase due to low interest rates, high debt levels, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [7]. - The potential easing of tariff threats could lead to a withdrawal of funds from safe assets, impacting gold demand, but central bank purchases and financial investments are likely to support gold prices [7].