贵金属日报 | 2025-12-10 哈塞特称美联储还有很大降息空间 市场分析 货币政策方面，美联储预计将在内部意见分歧的情况下连续第三次降息，官员们随后可能暗示暂停行动；芝商所 集团（CME）的美联储观察工具显示，市场已高度定价一次25个基点的降息。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞 特表示，他认为美联储还有很大降息空间。美国总统特朗普表示，他将把支持立即大幅降息作为选择新任美联储 主席的\"试金石\"，并称可能通过调整关税政策帮助降低部分商品价格。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-09，沪金主力合约开于958.04元/克，收于951.54元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.75%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于955.70元/克，收于955.82元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.45%。 2025-12-09，沪银主力合约开于13726.00元/千克，收于13607.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.72%。当日成交 量为1309030手，持仓量为417326手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于13761元/千克，收于14116元/千克，较昨日午后 收盘上涨3.74 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium- to long-term logic for being bullish on precious metals remains unchanged, although the current market risk aversion sentiment is weakening, which may slightly reduce the demand for gold investment. It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near term, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: Russian President Putin stated that the US President's decision was more of a postponement rather than a cancellation of the meeting. Russia always advocates dialogue [1]. - Tariff aspect: South Korea and the US are discussing a plan for South Korea to invest $200 billion in the US in phases over the next eight years to reach a tariff negotiation agreement. In the overall $350 billion plan, South Korea will provide $150 billion through credit guarantees and directly invest the remaining $200 billion [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 23, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 927.66 yuan/gram and closed at 942.28 yuan/gram, a change of -1.08% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 948.64 yuan/gram, up 0.67% from the afternoon close [2]. - On the same day, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11,255.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,467.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.55% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 977,615 lots, and the open interest was 377,229 lots. The night session closed at 11,517 yuan/kg, up 0.44% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 23, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.00%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.51%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by -313 lots, and the short position changed by -119 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 755,210 lots, a change of -26.20% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots, and the short position changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,562,642 lots, a change of -40.62% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,052.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,469 tons, a decrease of 129 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 23, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 9.64 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -943.76 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 82.17, a change of -1.62% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 85.46, a change of -0.15% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On October 23, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 63,090 kg, a change of -36.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 985,702 kg, a change of -58.01% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 6,592 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 2,700 kg [7]. Strategies - Gold: It is expected that the Au2512 contract will oscillate in the range of 930 yuan/gram - 960 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: It is expected that the Ag2512 contract will oscillate in the range of 11,000 yuan/kg - 11,800 yuan/kg [8]. - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [9] - Options: Hold off [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - With the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine easing, the safe-haven premium of precious metals has faded, and the demand for gold investment may weaken slightly. Coupled with the profit-taking of investors, the prices of gold and silver are expected to be range-bound in the near term [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical risks are easing as European leaders support a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiations, and Japan's new Prime Minister Kishida Sanae is considering a supplementary budget to address rising prices [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 990.00 yuan/gram and closed at 994.06 yuan/gram, up 2.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 945.44 yuan/gram, down 4.89% from the afternoon session [2]. - On the same day, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,982.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,805.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.54% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,582,985 lots, and the open interest was 424,554 lots. The night session closed at 11,285 yuan/kilogram, down 4.40% from the afternoon session [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 21, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was 3.953%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.508%, also unchanged [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 522 lots, and the short positions decreased by 224 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts was 695,291 lots, down 29.90% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai silver contracts was 2,383,616 lots, down 35.60% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,058.66 tons, while the silver ETF holdings decreased by 93 tons to 15,677 tons [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On October 21, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -31.30 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,378.39 yuan/kilogram [6]. - The ratio of the prices of the main gold and silver futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.21, up 1.90% from the previous trading day, and the ratio in the overseas market was 82.10, up 0.62% [6]. Fundamentals - On October 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 87,030 kilograms, up 21.13% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 2,116,166 kilograms, up 27.61% [7]. - The gold delivery volume was 16,814 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 139,020 kilograms [7]. Strategies - Gold: The price of gold is expected to be range-bound, with the Au2512 contract likely to trade between 930 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The price of silver is also expected to be range-bound, with the Ag2512 contract likely to trade between 10,800 yuan/kilogram and 11,600 yuan/kilogram [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold continues to surge, reaching new historical highs, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased demand from central banks and investors [12][14]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On October 15, spot gold prices rose to a high of $4,190.47 per ounce, while New York gold reached $4,210 per ounce, both setting new historical records [1][12]. - As of the latest update, spot gold was reported at $4,187.78 per ounce, and New York gold at $4,206.76 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Domestic Gold Market - In the domestic market, the main contracts for Shanghai gold futures rose collectively by over 1% [4]. - The prices for gold jewelry have also increased, with brands like Lao Miao and Chow Tai Fook reporting prices of 1,235 RMB per gram, reflecting a significant rise from the previous day [5][9]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have contributed to the rising gold prices, as he indicated a potential for further interest rate cuts [12]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, which may lead to more aggressive monetary easing by the Fed, thereby reducing the holding costs of gold [12]. - There is a noticeable trend of funds being shifted from U.S. Treasury securities to gold among global central banks, institutional investors, and individual investors [12]. Group 4: Future Predictions - Bank of America has raised its price forecast for gold to $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with a possibility of reaching $6,000 per ounce, contingent on a 28% increase in purchasing volume [14].