投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 智利Arauco公司10月针叶浆银星报价680美元/吨，阔叶浆明星报价540美元/吨，本色浆金星报价590美元/吨，进口报价总体表现为针叶 | 供给 | 偏空 | | | 浆下降，阔叶浆上涨的情况；2025年10月中国纸浆产量为208.4万吨，环比上涨10.2%，纸浆供给端较为宽松。 | | | | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | 主要木浆用纸产量基本保持稳定，白卡纸价格出现明显上涨且有去库的趋势，生活用纸价格略有上涨，其余纸种保持稳定。 | | | 截 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides trend intensities for each product: for PX, PTA, and MEG, the trend intensity is -1, indicating a "weak" or "weakly bearish" outlook [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that PX, PTA, and MEG are all in a weak position in the medium - term. For PX, it recommends a long PXN strategy, and for PTA, it suggests holding a 1 - 5 reverse spread. MEG is expected to have a bearish trend due to a supply - surplus situation [1][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: After the IEA downgraded the demand outlook, crude oil hit its lowest level since May. The IEA expects global oil demand to grow by only 700,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, far lower than the historical trend of 1.3 million barrels per day in the 2010s. There has been a market surplus of 1.9 million barrels per day since the beginning of 2025, and in September, water - borne oil production soared by 102 million barrels (equivalent to 3.4 million barrels per day) [2]. - **PX**: A 1 - million - ton PX plant in the northwest has stopped for maintenance, and a 720,000 - ton PX plant in Taiwan, China, has also stopped as planned. The PX price fell, with today's valuation at $779 per ton, a $12 decrease from yesterday [2][3]. - **PTA**: The report does not provide significant new information about PTA in the market dynamics section. - **MEG**: From October 13th to 19th, the planned arrival at major ports is about 102,000 tons. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol plant in Henan is expected to complete maintenance at the end of October and start up in November [3]. - **Polyester**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, with an average sales rate of about 40% as of 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are also average, with an average sales rate of 46% as of 3:00 pm [3][4]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures all decreased yesterday, with PX down 1.43%, PTA down 1.55%, MEG down 1.22%, PF down 1.17%, and SC down 0.90% [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, and MEG1 - 5 all changed, with PX1 - 5 unchanged, PTA1 - 5 down 4, and MEG1 - 5 down 14 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and Dated Brent all decreased, with PX down $12.16 per ton, PTA down 55 yuan per ton, MEG down 28 yuan per ton, and Dated Brent down $1.68 per barrel [1]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: The PX - naphtha spread decreased by $1.83, the PTA processing fee increased by 38.34 yuan, the short - fiber processing fee decreased by 20.42 yuan, and the bottle - chip processing fee decreased by 8.47 yuan [1]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The cost - end crude oil has fallen to a new low, and the support for aromatics valuation is weak. The unilateral trend of PX is weak, and it is recommended to go long on PXN. The only potential positive factor may come from the aromatics end. With the improvement of MX blending demand, the PX - MX spread has been significantly compressed. The PX supply - demand gap still exists as a new PTA plant of Xin Fengming may be put into production soon [5]. - **PTA**: Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support of the polyester industry chain is weak due to the weak demand outlook and low oil prices. The supply in the East China PTA spot market is still sufficient, and sporadic plant maintenance cannot change the current weak basis situation. Attention should be paid to whether filament production will be reduced in October and the impact of additional fees on textile exports [5]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak due to the supply - surplus situation. The overall load will be slightly reduced this week, and the high point of the load in October is expected to have passed. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US government's new fee policy on ethane producers. The polyester load is expected to be maintained at 91% in October, 89% in November, and will decline further during the Spring Festival [6].

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyester Data Weekly Report - Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: He Xiaoqin, Qian Jiayin 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of PX, PTA, and MEG remains weak. Suggest 1 - 5 inverse spreads for these products. For PTA, consider shorting on the rebound of processing fees for 01/05 contracts. For MEG, operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 and consider the strategy of going long on L and short on MEG [3][4][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Product PX Valuation - The PX valuation is affected by factors such as the strengthening of naphtha, the weakening of PXN, and the strong overseas oil product cracking spreads. The external PX is strong in the near - term, and attention should be paid to the monthly spread inverse spread [20][28][34]. Supply and Demand - Domestic PX supply is gradually increasing. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). In August, the PX表观 consumption was 393000 tons, and the import volume was 88000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons. The inventory in August decreased to 3.9 million tons (-240000) [55][56][57][60][67][73]. PTA Valuation - The 1 - 5 month spread is in an inverse spread. The PTA processing fee is at a low level, and the device operation willingness is weakened. The cost has collapsed, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has declined [79][81][87]. Supply and Demand - The PTA supply is gradually increasing. The current operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged). The cumulative PTA production from January to August 2025 was 48.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. Exports increased from July to August, and the inventory is at a low level [90][93][106]. MEG Valuation - The MEG valuation shows a downward trend, and the basis remains high. The MEG is relatively more valuable compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics. The coal - based profit has dropped to 305 yuan/ton (-95), the naphtha - based MEG profit is -970 (-130) yuan/ton, and the MTO profit is -1106 (-70) yuan/ton [123][129][131]. Supply and Demand - The overall operating load of MEG in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.85%), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to produce MEG is 74.36% (a month - on - month decrease of 5.02%). The supply pressure has marginally improved. The import volume in August was about 590000 tons, and it is expected to increase in September. The port inventory is at a low level [133][136][137]. Polyester - The current polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%). Affected by the typhoon, a 1.1 - million - ton bottle - chip factory in South China temporarily stopped production. The bottle - chip sales improved significantly, the filament factory's promotion drove the inventory to decrease by 7 - 10 days, and the staple fiber inventory continued to decline. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the inventory pressure of polyester factories is expected to rise again after the festival [158][160].