投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 智利Arauco公司10月针叶浆银星报价680美元/吨，阔叶浆明星报价540美元/吨，本色浆金星报价590美元/吨，进口报价总体表现为针叶 | 供给 | 偏空 | | | 浆下降，阔叶浆上涨的情况；2025年10月中国纸浆产量为208.4万吨，环比上涨10.2%，纸浆供给端较为宽松。 | | | | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | 主要木浆用纸产量基本保持稳定，白卡纸价格出现明显上涨且有去库的趋势，生活用纸价格略有上涨，其余纸种保持稳定。 | | | 截 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 PTA：中期仍偏弱 MEG：1-5 月差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 期货 PX 主力 PTA 主力 MEG 主力 PF 主力 SC 主力 昨日收盘价 6338 4440 4061 6060 449.6 涨跌 -92 -70 -50 -72 -4.1 涨跌幅 -1.43% -1.55% -1.22% -1.17% -0.90% 月差 PX1-5 PTA1-5 MEG1-5 PF12-1 SC11-12 昨日收盘价 -52 -58 -88 -22 -1 前日收盘价 -52 -54 -74 -44 -1.3 涨跌 0 -4 -14 22 0.3 现货 PX CFR 中国（美 金/吨） PTA 华东（元/吨） MEG 现货 石脑油 MOPJ Dated 布伦特 (美 金/桶) 昨日价格 779.17 4385 4150 553 62.58 前日价格 791.33 4440 4178 566.75 64.25 涨跌 -12.16 -55 -28 -13.75 -1.68 现货加工费 PX ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyester Data Weekly Report - Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: He Xiaoqin, Qian Jiayin 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of PX, PTA, and MEG remains weak. Suggest 1 - 5 inverse spreads for these products. For PTA, consider shorting on the rebound of processing fees for 01/05 contracts. For MEG, operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 and consider the strategy of going long on L and short on MEG [3][4][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Product PX Valuation - The PX valuation is affected by factors such as the strengthening of naphtha, the weakening of PXN, and the strong overseas oil product cracking spreads. The external PX is strong in the near - term, and attention should be paid to the monthly spread inverse spread [20][28][34]. Supply and Demand - Domestic PX supply is gradually increasing. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). In August, the PX表观 consumption was 393000 tons, and the import volume was 88000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons. The inventory in August decreased to 3.9 million tons (-240000) [55][56][57][60][67][73]. PTA Valuation - The 1 - 5 month spread is in an inverse spread. The PTA processing fee is at a low level, and the device operation willingness is weakened. The cost has collapsed, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has declined [79][81][87]. Supply and Demand - The PTA supply is gradually increasing. The current operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged). The cumulative PTA production from January to August 2025 was 48.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. Exports increased from July to August, and the inventory is at a low level [90][93][106]. MEG Valuation - The MEG valuation shows a downward trend, and the basis remains high. The MEG is relatively more valuable compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics. The coal - based profit has dropped to 305 yuan/ton (-95), the naphtha - based MEG profit is -970 (-130) yuan/ton, and the MTO profit is -1106 (-70) yuan/ton [123][129][131]. Supply and Demand - The overall operating load of MEG in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.85%), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to produce MEG is 74.36% (a month - on - month decrease of 5.02%). The supply pressure has marginally improved. The import volume in August was about 590000 tons, and it is expected to increase in September. The port inventory is at a low level [133][136][137]. Polyester - The current polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%). Affected by the typhoon, a 1.1 - million - ton bottle - chip factory in South China temporarily stopped production. The bottle - chip sales improved significantly, the filament factory's promotion drove the inventory to decrease by 7 - 10 days, and the staple fiber inventory continued to decline. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the inventory pressure of polyester factories is expected to rise again after the festival [158][160].