高盛股票分析师John Marshall在最新报告中指出，在过去几十年中，10月的实际波动率比其他月份高出 25%以上。10月历来是全年波动性最大的时期，主要受三大因素影响：(1)企业财报季：企业获利压力与 年终业绩评估将使市场交易活动显著增加。(2)宏观经济数据：美联储官员的公开发言，以及即将发布 的最新消费者物价指数(CPI)报告，都将受到投资者高度关注，并可能引发市场震荡。(3)投资人行为： 历史上单一股票的交易量(包括股票和期权交易)通常在十月达到峰值，这显示在业绩压力下，投资者被 迫采取行动。 格隆汇9月26日｜今年美股意外打破了"9月魔咒"的季节性规律，有望创下近15年来最佳9月表现。科技 股表现尤为强劲，截至25日收盘，纳指本月已累计上涨超4.3%。然而，高盛提醒，在享受9月股市涨势 的同时，应对即将到来的10月保持审慎，市场将面临企业财报和宏观经济等多重风险考验，预计股市波 动性将大幅上升。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a rally, with the Nasdaq 100 index recently achieving its longest winning streak in over a year, having risen for five consecutive months [1] - Morgan Stanley warns that the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may dampen investor enthusiasm, as the market has already priced in a quarter-point cut [3] - The S&P 500 index has been in a period of low volatility, with daily fluctuations averaging less than 0.9%, marking the longest calm period in two years, yet it continues to reach new highs [3] Group 2 - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will depend on various scenarios, including the perceived dovishness of the Fed's guidance and any indications of economic slowdown [4] - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index typically declines in September, but it has risen in past instances when the Fed cut rates without an economic contraction [6] - The potential for the stock market to continue reaching new highs post-rate cut hinges on improved economic data, sustained dovish signals from the Fed, and strong corporate earnings, particularly in the tech sector [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the historical trend of the S&P 500 index experiencing declines in September, particularly during the first year of a presidential term, and discusses the potential volatility and macroeconomic challenges facing the market in the upcoming month [1][4][6]. Group 1: Historical Trends and Market Behavior - Data from Bank of America indicates that the S&P 500 has a 56% probability of declining in September, with an average drop of 1.17%, which increases to 58% and an average drop of 1.62% during the first year of a president's term [4][5]. - September and October are identified as the months with the highest volatility in the stock market over the past thirty years, with the VIX index typically hovering around 20 during this period [4][9]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The S&P 500 index has risen 17% since early May, leading to a valuation of 22 times expected earnings, comparable to the peak of the internet bubble [5]. - Investors are facing a precarious situation as hedge funds have reached an 80th percentile exposure to stocks, indicating overextension in market positioning [7]. Group 3: Upcoming Challenges - The market is expected to face multiple pressures in September, including significant employment and inflation data releases, as well as a Federal Reserve meeting to decide on interest rates [4][10]. - Institutional investors, such as pension funds and mutual funds, are likely to rebalance their portfolios at the end of the quarter, which may lead to increased selling pressure [7][8]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Strategy - Retail investor activity is anticipated to slow down in September, historically one of the months with the lowest participation from individual investors [7]. - Analysts suggest that the current volatility levels are unsustainable, and some investors may feel the need to pull back their investments after a summer of market highs [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing weakness, with major indices declining, particularly in September, which historically has been the weakest month for stocks [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the last trading day of August, major indices fell, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1% and Nvidia and chip stocks declining more than 3% [1]. - The S&P 500 index has risen 17% since early May, reaching a valuation of 22 times expected earnings, comparable to the late internet bubble [4]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Challenges - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 has a 56% chance of declining in September, with an average drop of 1.17%, and this probability increases to 58% in presidential election years [3]. - September is expected to bring significant macroeconomic challenges, including key non-farm payroll reports and inflation data, along with a Federal Reserve meeting to decide on interest rates [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investors are facing bubble risks as hedge funds have reached an 80th percentile in stock exposure, indicating overextended market positioning [4]. - There is an anticipated reduction in buying support as pension funds and mutual funds will rebalance portfolios, potentially leading to increased selling pressure [4][5]. - Retail investor activity is expected to slow down in September, which is typically a low participation month for retail investors [5]. Group 4: Volatility and Uncertainty - September and October are historically the months with the highest stock market volatility, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) typically hovering around 20 during this period [8]. - There is a growing caution among traders regarding downside risks, as indicated by the rising costs of put options [8]. - Policy uncertainty is heightened with the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and potential economic data that could influence interest rate decisions [8][9]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Analysts suggest that despite the current volatility, investors should consider increasing stock holdings, viewing potential market pullbacks as buying opportunities [9].