市场人士普遍关注三大风险因素：一是美国经济数据呈现降温迹象，消费者与企业信心不足；二是美国贸易保护政策 动向可能加剧全球供应链紧张；三是政治层面，美联储理事丽莎·库克被罢免引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧。德意志 银行外汇研究主管George Saravelos指出，市场对这些风险的定价明显不足，30年期美债收益率单日跳升5个基点至 4.94%已释放警示信号。 （图片来源：彭博社） 今年夏季，在科技"七巨头"股票带动下，标普500指数自4月底以来持续攀升，截至周一收盘较4月低点累计上涨超 30%，市场波动率指数（VIX）更降至年内低位。但高盛资产配置研究主管Christian Mueller-Glissmann警告称，这种繁 荣主要依赖少数科技企业超预期业绩，而非整体经济基本面改善。"劳动力市场持续走软表明，'金发姑娘'式的完美经 济环境并不存在，当前涨势难以持续。" 据彭博社等外媒报道，高盛最新分析指出，支撑美股夏季强势表现的"黄金之夏"行情正面临多重挑战，随着投资者结 束假期重返市场，美国经济疲软信号、贸易政策不确定性及政治因素将对市场形成压力。 值得注意的是，尽管美元指数自7月低点有所回升，但风险资产与避险 ...

来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】据彭博社等外媒报道，高盛最新分析指出，支撑美股夏季强势表现的"黄金夏 季"行情正面临多重挑战，随着投资者结束假期重返市场，美国经济疲软信号、贸易政策不确定性及政 治因素将对市场形成压力。 彭博社 今年夏季，在科技"七巨头"股票带动下，标普500指数自4月底以来持续攀升，截至周一收盘较4月低点 累计上涨超30%，市场波动率指数（VIX）更降至年内低位。但高盛资产配置研究主管Christian Mueller-Glissmann警告称，这种繁荣主要依赖少数科技企业超预期业绩，而非整体经济基本面改 善。"劳动力市场持续走软表明，'金发姑娘 '式的完美经济环境并不存在，当前涨势难以持续。" 市场人士普遍关注三大风险因素：一是美国经济数据呈现降温迹象，消费者与企业信心不足；二是美国 贸易保护政策动向可能加剧全球供应链紧张；三是政治层面，美联储理事丽莎·库克被罢免引发市场对 美联储独立性的担忧。德意志银行外汇研究主管George Saravelos指出，市场对这些风险的定价明显不 足，30年期美债收益率单日跳升5个基点至4.94%已释放警示信号。 值得注意的是，尽管美元指数自7月低点有 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Bitcoin surged to $117,000, leading to $318 million in short liquidations, with nearly 90% of liquidators betting against Bitcoin [1] - Major US stock indices reached all-time highs, with the Dow Jones at 44,650 points, S&P 500 at 6,280 points, and Nasdaq at 20,630 points [1] - Tesla's stock rose over 4% due to the announcement of its new AI model and expansion of its autonomous taxi business [1] Group 2: Company Movements - Coinbase and Robinhood stocks both increased by 4% amid the cryptocurrency rally [1] - Meta's stock unexpectedly declined, influenced by Mark Zuckerberg's acquisition of Apple's AI head for over $200 million, setting a record for tech executive transfer fees [1] Group 3: Economic Risks - Goldman Sachs warned of three major risks: potential black swan events, volatile interest rates, and the risk of a depreciating dollar [2] - Morgan Stanley noted that momentum strategies are beginning to fail, indicating significant risks from concentrated holdings and leverage [2] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Geopolitical Factors - The Federal Reserve's potential shift in policy, including discussions of interest rate cuts and adjustments to its balance sheet, adds uncertainty to the market [4] - Geopolitical tensions are rising, with Brazil's president responding to US tariffs and new military aid packages for Ukraine being prepared [4] Group 5: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Four main drivers behind Bitcoin's rise include the upcoming "21st Century Innovation Act," Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations, SEC's crypto regulations, and significant accumulation by public companies totaling over 850,000 Bitcoins valued at $95.3 billion [6] - The Bitcoin ETF market is attracting substantial investments, with a weekly inflow of $1.5 billion, bringing the total to $129 billion, representing 6% of Bitcoin's market cap [6] Group 6: Stock Market Vulnerabilities - High valuations and concentrated holdings in the stock market pose risks, with leading economic indicators showing weakness for three consecutive months [7] - The potential for a black swan event related to interest rates could trigger a tech stock bubble burst, while a weak dollar increases import costs and diminishes overseas profits [7] Group 7: Investment Strategies and Trends - Investors are advised to diversify away from concentrated sectors, with a shift towards defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare [8] - Gold's spot premium has reached historical highs, prompting some hedge funds to invest in gold mining stocks as a risk hedge [8]