来源：广发证券研究 我们认为美股短期将迎来修复：原因一：近期AI泡沫担忧、流动性吃紧与宏观不确定性三大利空因素 基本出尽。流动性层面，本周政府重新开门后，美元流动性问题已得到显著缓解。宏观层面，非农数据 的出炉部分扭转了过"鹰"的预期，短期降息预期扰动基本结束。原因二：目前美国"K型"经济和"金发姑 娘"经济情形并存，上述两种形态下，美股表现都不弱。 摘 要 美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人，预期增加5.2万人，前值修正为增加2.2万人，大超预期。失业率小 幅攀升至4.4%，创下2021年10月以来的最高水平。从市场表现来看，投资者将该份非农报告解读为中 性偏弱。CME FEDWATCH数据显示，12月降息25bp的概率自39%回升至71%，前期因美联储重要官员 密集的鹰派发言导致市场的降息预期骤减，目前降息预期已回升至较高水平。 参考美国基本面和历史"软着陆"降息情形，12月降息紧迫性并不强：（1）从基本面来看，当前通胀仍 处温和回升的趋势，大幅走高的风险不强；就业方面，10月新增就业和裁员人数激增并存的背景下，就 业市场短期或将处于微妙的平衡，大幅走弱的风险较低；（2）从历史复盘来看，"软着陆"降息的 ...

来源：晨明的策略深度思考 作者：刘晨明/陈振威 报告摘要 美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人，预期增加5.2万人，前值修正为增加2.2万人，大超预期。失业率小幅攀升至4.4%，创下2021年10月以来的最高水平。从 市场表现来看，投资者将该份非农报告解读为中性偏弱。CME FEDWATCH数据显示，12月降息25bp的概率自39%回升至71%，前期因美联储重要官员密集 的鹰派发言导致市场的降息预期骤减，目前降息预期已回升至较高水平。 参考美国基本面和历史"软着陆"降息情形，12月降息紧迫性并不强：（1）从基本面来看，当前通胀仍处温和回升的趋势，大幅走高的风险不强；就业方 面，10月新增就业和裁员人数激增并存的背景下，就业市场短期或将处于微妙的平衡，大幅走弱的风险较低；（2）从历史复盘来看，"软着陆"降息的幅度 约75-100bp，当前就业并未出现明显衰退的背景下，美联储可能短期将暂停降息，并为明年降息留足空间。但是从政策倾向来看，美联储官员内部分歧仍 存，在非农数据公布前以鹰派发声为主，但近日约翰威廉姆斯和哈塞特则明确支持12月继续降息。综合来看，12月是否降息仍然存在不确定性。 我们认为美股短期将迎来修复 ...

然而，Mueller-Glissmann写道，在今年年底之前，"金发姑娘"行情可能会受到冲击。他说："金发姑娘 有可能遇到三只熊中的一只。" "金发姑娘"经济，顾名思义，是一种童话般的情景：经济既不太热（导致通胀猖獗），也不太冷（导致 增长放缓）。正如童话故事所表达的，一切"刚刚好"。 高盛警告称，美股"金发姑娘"行情可能在年底前受冲击；该行分析师提出"三只熊"风险：增长冲击、利 率冲击和美元熊市，并强调短期内这些冲击未成现实，但年底前风险仍存。 随着标准普尔500指数接近历史高位，估值接近互联网泡沫时期的水平，有关美股泡沫的相关警告也卷 土重来。高盛（Goldman Sachs）就在最新报告中警告称，今年年底前，美股"金发姑娘"行情可能会遭 遇冲击。 高盛投资组合策略部门资产配置研究主管Christian Mueller-Glissmann和他的团队在一份题为《金发姑娘 继续逃离熊市》（Goldilocks continues to escape the bears）的报告中指出，围绕人工智能（AI ）和科技 公司的乐观情绪继续推高了美国股市。 与此同时，该行指出，投资者正享受着美联储预计今年将至少再推出一 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a rally, with the Nasdaq 100 index recently achieving its longest winning streak in over a year, having risen for five consecutive months [1] - Morgan Stanley warns that the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may dampen investor enthusiasm, as the market has already priced in a quarter-point cut [3] - The S&P 500 index has been in a period of low volatility, with daily fluctuations averaging less than 0.9%, marking the longest calm period in two years, yet it continues to reach new highs [3] Group 2 - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will depend on various scenarios, including the perceived dovishness of the Fed's guidance and any indications of economic slowdown [4] - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index typically declines in September, but it has risen in past instances when the Fed cut rates without an economic contraction [6] - The potential for the stock market to continue reaching new highs post-rate cut hinges on improved economic data, sustained dovish signals from the Fed, and strong corporate earnings, particularly in the tech sector [8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that the strong performance of the U.S. stock market during the summer, referred to as the "golden summer," is facing multiple challenges as investors return to the market [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 30% since the end of April, primarily driven by the performance of the "seven tech giants," while the market volatility index (VIX) has dropped to its lowest level of the year [3] - Concerns are growing regarding three major risk factors: signs of a cooling U.S. economy, uncertainty in trade policies, and political issues affecting the independence of the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - The labor market's continued weakness suggests that a "Goldilocks" economic environment does not exist, making the current market rally difficult to sustain [3] - The market's pricing of these risks appears insufficient, as evidenced by a 5 basis point increase in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.94%, signaling potential warnings [3] - Despite a rebound in the U.S. dollar index since July, the simultaneous movement of risk and safe-haven assets indicates a growing divergence among investors [3]

Group 1 - The "golden summer" rally supporting the strong performance of US stocks is facing multiple challenges as investors return to the market, with signs of a weakening US economy, trade policy uncertainties, and political factors putting pressure on the market [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 30% since the end of April, driven by the performance of the "seven tech giants," while the market volatility index (VIX) has dropped to its lowest level of the year [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the current market rally is primarily reliant on the exceptional performance of a few tech companies rather than an improvement in the overall economic fundamentals [2] Group 2 - Three major risk factors are highlighted: signs of cooling in US economic data, insufficient consumer and business confidence, and potential escalation of global supply chain tensions due to US trade protection policies [2] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have arisen following the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which may impact market sentiment [2] - The market's pricing of these risks appears insufficient, as indicated by a 5 basis point increase in the 30-year US Treasury yield to 4.94%, signaling potential warnings [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Bitcoin surged to $117,000, leading to $318 million in short liquidations, with nearly 90% of liquidators betting against Bitcoin [1] - Major US stock indices reached all-time highs, with the Dow Jones at 44,650 points, S&P 500 at 6,280 points, and Nasdaq at 20,630 points [1] - Tesla's stock rose over 4% due to the announcement of its new AI model and expansion of its autonomous taxi business [1] Group 2: Company Movements - Coinbase and Robinhood stocks both increased by 4% amid the cryptocurrency rally [1] - Meta's stock unexpectedly declined, influenced by Mark Zuckerberg's acquisition of Apple's AI head for over $200 million, setting a record for tech executive transfer fees [1] Group 3: Economic Risks - Goldman Sachs warned of three major risks: potential black swan events, volatile interest rates, and the risk of a depreciating dollar [2] - Morgan Stanley noted that momentum strategies are beginning to fail, indicating significant risks from concentrated holdings and leverage [2] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Geopolitical Factors - The Federal Reserve's potential shift in policy, including discussions of interest rate cuts and adjustments to its balance sheet, adds uncertainty to the market [4] - Geopolitical tensions are rising, with Brazil's president responding to US tariffs and new military aid packages for Ukraine being prepared [4] Group 5: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Four main drivers behind Bitcoin's rise include the upcoming "21st Century Innovation Act," Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations, SEC's crypto regulations, and significant accumulation by public companies totaling over 850,000 Bitcoins valued at $95.3 billion [6] - The Bitcoin ETF market is attracting substantial investments, with a weekly inflow of $1.5 billion, bringing the total to $129 billion, representing 6% of Bitcoin's market cap [6] Group 6: Stock Market Vulnerabilities - High valuations and concentrated holdings in the stock market pose risks, with leading economic indicators showing weakness for three consecutive months [7] - The potential for a black swan event related to interest rates could trigger a tech stock bubble burst, while a weak dollar increases import costs and diminishes overseas profits [7] Group 7: Investment Strategies and Trends - Investors are advised to diversify away from concentrated sectors, with a shift towards defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare [8] - Gold's spot premium has reached historical highs, prompting some hedge funds to invest in gold mining stocks as a risk hedge [8]