高盛团队由其首席经济学家简·哈祖斯领导，在上周给客户的一份报告中自认为相对于共识观点"更为乐 观"。该行预测美国2026年日历年均增长率为2.6%。在77家机构预测中，高盛的这一预测乐观程度排名 第四——若仅看华尔街投行，则位列第一。 智通财经APP获悉，在圣诞假期前发布的年度展望报告中，高盛和花旗的经济团队对美国经济前景的判 断形成了鲜明对比，讨论这种差异可能有助于思考2026年的经济走势。 花旗对此并不那么确信。他们估计额外退税规模更为温和，在300亿至500亿美元之间。该行也认为宽松 金融环境带来的支撑有限，并强调这些条件今年未能阻止失业率上升。 高盛团队这样表述："主要脆弱点仍然是美国劳动力市场的裂痕，如果就业疲软进入可能再次引发严重 衰退担忧的区间。" 关于不确定性降低的问题，花旗经济学家写道："几乎没有证据表明2025年下半年招聘放缓是由于贸易 或其他政策不确定性造成的。"疲软的就业市场是该行经济前景判断的关键，他们强调了疲弱的招聘和 工资增长数据。 花旗写道："我们的基本预期是，招聘将保持低迷，导致收入增长放缓，消费者支出持续减速。" 两家银行都认为美联储决策者将在2026年进一步降息，高盛预测 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The geopolitical issues in the Taiwan Strait have led to a slight increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, and attention should be paid to the impact of this news on the β - drive of gold. After the end of the longest - ever government shutdown in the US, the release of backlogged economic data is awaited, and the key lies in whether the employment reports for October and November can be released in time. Gold is rated as neutral, with a price range of 890 - 980 yuan/gram [6]. - Silver: Although it is difficult for silver to break through the previous high at present, it is only a matter of time before it breaks through new highs. Attention should be paid to the entry opportunity after this correction. Silver is rated as neutral, with a price range of 11400 - 12400 yuan/kilogram [6]. - Copper: The real - world driving force for copper prices is not strong, but the long - term price increase logic is still obvious. It is recommended to mainly go long on dips, and look for opportunities for internal - external reverse arbitrage [86]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Gold and Silver Market Performance - This week, London gold rose 1.93%, and London silver rose 6.81%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.1 in the previous week to 78.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.86%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate dropped to 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 99.28 [6]. Price Analysis - Silver: Due to the rebound of the lease rate on Monday and extremely low domestic silver inventories, the market restarted long - position trading. However, it is difficult for silver to break through the previous high at present, and it is only a matter of time before it breaks through new highs [6]. - Gold: Geopolitical issues in the Taiwan Strait have increased market risk - aversion sentiment. Attention should be paid to the impact of this news on gold prices, as well as the release of US economic data [6]. Transaction - related Data - Overseas and domestic price differences: The London spot - COMEX gold主力 price difference fell to - 2.241 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 price difference was 2.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 price difference rose to 0.117 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 price difference was 0.58 dollars/ounce. The domestic gold and silver price differences were also at different levels, with the gold price difference at - 5.22 yuan/gram and the silver price difference at - 25 yuan/gram [12][15][19]. - Month - to - month price differences: The gold month - to - month price difference was 7.92 yuan/gram, at the upper edge of the historical range; the silver month - to - month price difference was 67 yuan/gram, at the lower edge of the historical range [26][30]. - Inventory and position: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.1%; COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138 tons to 14795 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. The gold futures inventory increased by 0.81 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 46 tons to 576 tons [39][41][43]. - ETF position: The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 3.65 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 129 tons [51][53]. Copper Market Performance - The copper price rebounded and then fluctuated, with the price range of 85000 - 89000 yuan/ton. The COMEX copper price was about 300 dollars/ton higher than the LME price [82]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The logic of raw material supply shortage continues to weaken. The supply of recycled copper has increased marginally, and the domestic refined copper output has remained at a high level. It is expected that the annual increase will exceed 1.2 million tons [86]. - Demand: The current demand has weakened, but the long - term logic is still strong. The high copper price has suppressed downstream demand, but in the long run, consumption is expected to recover [86]. Transaction - related Data - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE, INE, LME, and COMEX copper prices has declined. The LME copper price volatility is around 8%, and the SHFE copper volatility is around 13% [90]. - Term price differences: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount has turned into a premium [92]. - Position: The positions of LME and COMEX copper have increased, while the SHFE copper position has decreased by 0.13 million lots to 55.31 million lots [95]. - Spot premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has declined [103]. - Inventory: The global total inventory has increased, with a significant increase in COMEX inventory [106].

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan [2] - Date: November 16, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold: There is a slight increase in market risk aversion due to geopolitical issues such as the Taiwan Strait situation. The release of backlogged economic data after the end of the US government shutdown may affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of these factors on gold prices [3]. - Silver: Although there is some pressure for silver to break through the previous high, it is only a matter of time to break through new highs. It is advisable to pay attention to the entry opportunities after this round of corrections [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Price Performance** - This week, London gold rose 1.93%, and London silver rose 6.81%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.1 to 78.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.86%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.14% (2 - year 3.62%), and the US dollar index was 99.28 [3]. - Various gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed different degrees of changes, such as the 7.55% increase in the weekly price of Shanghai Silver 2512 [4]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Overseas Spread**: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 2.241 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was 2.1 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 0.117 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was 0.58 dollars per ounce [9][12]. - **Domestic Spread**: The gold futures - spot spread was - 5.22 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was - 25 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.92 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 67 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16][19][23][28]. - **Inventory and Position Analysis** - **COMEX Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 52.1%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138 tons to 14,795 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 32.8% [37][39]. - **Futures and Exchange Inventory**: Gold futures inventory increased by 0.81 tons, silver futures inventory decreased by 46 tons to 576 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 82 tons to 822 tons [41]. - **CFTC Position**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while that of silver decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Position**: The inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 3.65 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 129 tons [49][51]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Relationship with Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales**: Data on US PCE and core PCE year - on - year changes are presented, which can reflect the inflation situation and may affect gold prices [68]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Information on indicators such as US non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates is provided, which are important factors affecting the Fed's monetary policy and gold prices [70][72][73].