——电力设备行业周报 最近一年走势 | | | | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 王刚 S0350524020001 | | | | wangg06@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 李昂 S0350525030002 | | | | lia@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 吴亦辰 S0350125030017 | | | | wuyc@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 全球储能需求高增确定性再提升，谷歌 TPU 液 冷持续推进 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/12/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 电力设备 | -5.4% | 4.3% | 33.9% | | 沪深 300 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The report discusses the potential for an early spring market rally, suggesting that historical patterns indicate such rallies often occur ahead of schedule during bull markets [3][4] - Analysts believe that the current market environment, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may catalyze an earlier-than-usual spring rally [4][5] - Growth sectors, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, are highlighted as key areas for investment as the market anticipates a shift towards growth styles [5] Group 2: Renewable Energy Sector - The report indicates a continuous improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the lithium battery industry, with production levels expected to stabilize around historical highs [10][11] - The solar energy sector is experiencing a decline in prices for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules, but supply-side reforms are expected to enhance market stability [6][7] - Wind energy projects are gaining momentum, with significant increases in domestic and international offshore wind turbine tenders, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the sector [7][8] Group 3: Aluminum Industry Insights - The aluminum market is experiencing upward price pressure due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, including anticipated interest rate cuts and improved manufacturing PMI [16][17] - Domestic production of electrolytic aluminum is slightly increasing, but demand remains mixed, with some sectors showing signs of weakness as the market enters a seasonal slowdown [17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production rates in the aluminum sector, as these factors will influence future pricing trends [18][19] Group 4: Coal Market Dynamics - The coal market is expected to see price increases in December, driven by seasonal demand and production adjustments, despite recent price declines [26][29] - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the coal supply chain, including transportation issues and fluctuating demand from both power generation and industrial sectors [26][27] - Long-term trends suggest that coal prices may continue to rise due to structural factors such as rising operational costs and regulatory pressures [29][30] Group 5: Robotics Industry Developments - The report notes significant advancements in the robotics sector, with the U.S. government accelerating initiatives to promote industry growth [31][32] - Tesla's developments in humanoid robots are highlighted, indicating a focus on cost-effective production and potential market applications [32][33] - Various robotics companies are securing substantial funding to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach, indicating a vibrant investment landscape [34][35][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the European offshore wind catalysis continues to strengthen, and the supply-demand pattern of lithium batteries is improving [1] - The overall performance of the power equipment sector shows positive changes and potential catalysts, maintaining an overall "Recommended" rating for the sector [7] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The power equipment sector has shown a performance of -5.4% over the last month, 10.2% over the last three months, and 33.1% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Key Events and Insights - In the photovoltaic sector, there is a continued decline in prices for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules, with a significant reduction in domestic polysilicon production by 15.9% month-on-month in November [4] - In the wind power sector, domestic offshore wind turbine bidding has reached 10.3GW, a 9% increase from the previous year, with significant developments in emerging markets [5] - The energy storage sector is seeing growth, with Trina Solar's energy storage shipments expected to exceed 5GWh in Q4, and a focus on overseas markets [5] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing high prosperity, with production expected to remain at a historical high of around 220GWh in December [5] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the silicon material sector such as GCL-Poly and Tongwei, as well as battery technology firms like LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar [4] - For wind power, companies like Dongfang Cable and Goldwind Technology are recommended due to their involvement in significant projects [5] - In the energy storage space, leading integrators and cell manufacturers such as Sungrow Power and CATL are highlighted as key players [5] - The lithium battery sector is advised to focus on leading companies like CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy, as the industry is moving towards a more rational growth phase [5]

Group 1 - The electric grid equipment sector experienced a slight pullback, with the only electric grid equipment ETF (159326) down by 1.28% as of 1:32 PM on November 11, despite active trading with a transaction volume of 266 million yuan [1] - The electric grid equipment ETF (562600) has seen continuous net inflows for 11 days, accumulating over 1.3 billion yuan, reaching a new high of 1.772 billion yuan [1] - The integration of source-grid-load-storage projects is accelerating, with the release of the white paper on "China's Action for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" on November 8, indicating a shift from concept validation to large-scale promotion [1] Group 2 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) tracks the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in the sectors of transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, cable components, and distribution equipment [2] - The high voltage transmission sector holds a significant weight of 64% in the ETF, the highest in the market, with leading companies like Guodian NARI, TBEA, and Sifang Electric among the top ten holdings [2]

Core Viewpoint - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) has seen significant investment interest, with a recent net inflow of 398 million yuan, reaching a record high in total assets of 1.161 billion yuan, indicating strong market confidence in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The electric grid equipment ETF has increased by approximately 2.36% as of 13:36 on November 6, with a trading volume exceeding 721 million yuan, marking a historical peak [1]. - Key holdings such as Zhengtai Electric and Baobian Electric have hit the daily limit up, while other stocks like Zhongneng Electric and China West Electric have also shown strong upward momentum [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The ETF's recent performance is attributed to a robust demand for electric grid equipment, with companies like Shuangjie Electric reporting a solid order backlog during institutional research, supporting business growth [1]. - The clean energy sector is identified as a key growth area during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for continued investment in power infrastructure and the advancement of ultra-high voltage transmission channels [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The ETF tracks the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, covering various sectors including transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation, and distribution equipment, with a significant focus on ultra-high voltage, which constitutes 64% of its weight [2]. - The top ten holdings include industry leaders such as Guodian NARI, TBEA, and Sifang Electric, reflecting the ETF's strong market representation [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant growth in the photovoltaic sector, with a 150% year-on-year increase in new installations, reaching 197.85 GW from January to May 2025 [4] - Wind power installations also saw substantial growth, with a 801% year-on-year increase in May, totaling 26.32 GW, supported by policy incentives [4] - The report emphasizes the ongoing advancements in the lithium battery supply chain, particularly in solid-state battery development, indicating a strong future outlook for the sector [7] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - New installations in the photovoltaic sector reached 197.85 GW from January to May 2025, marking a 150% increase year-on-year [4] - In May alone, 92.92 GW of new capacity was added, reflecting a 105.48% month-on-month increase and a 388.03% year-on-year increase [4] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in material innovation and high-efficiency battery technologies [4] Wind Power Sector - The report notes that wind power installations reached 46.28 GW in the first five months of 2025, a 134% year-on-year increase [4] - The significant growth in installations is expected to support the performance of companies in the supply chain during Q2 [4] - The report recommends monitoring companies involved in offshore wind projects, as government policies are expected to catalyze further growth [4] Lithium Battery Sector - Companies in the lithium battery supply chain are advancing solid-state battery technologies, with several firms achieving significant milestones in energy density and production [7] - The report highlights that Ganfeng Lithium has established a comprehensive solid-state battery layout, achieving breakthroughs in energy density and cycle life [7] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned in the solid-state battery ecosystem and those providing innovative solutions in the supply chain [7] Energy Storage Sector - The report indicates that energy storage markets in Europe are experiencing a surge in policy support, creating structural investment opportunities [7] - Various European countries are implementing significant subsidies and regulatory changes to enhance energy storage capabilities [7] - The report recommends focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from these developments in the energy storage market [7] Overall Industry Outlook - The report concludes that the electric power equipment industry is experiencing positive fundamental changes and potential catalysts, maintaining an overall "Recommended" rating for the sector [4]