证券研究报告 | 2025年09月29日 行业与公司动态：商务部等发布服务消费 19 条举措，涵盖鼓励业态融合、 优化景区预约、支持非学科培训及探索中小学春秋假等，以激发消费潜力。 教育部推出县中振兴计划，通过资源扩容、规范招生及职普融通等措施促进 县域高中优质均衡发展。淘宝闪购与饿了么将联合推出到店团购业务，打通 阿里多端流量切入本地生活市场。海底捞旗下"焰请烤肉"在部分城市试点 自助模式，定价 79.9 元/人。 风险提示：政策变动、行业竞争加剧、消费环境修复不及预期等。 社会服务行业双周报（第 115 期） 优于大市 凯文教育携手智谱华章，成立合资公司布局 AI 教育 周观点：凯文教育携手智谱华章，成立合资公司布局 AI 教育。凯文教育是 A 股稀缺的 K12 学校运营服务商，据公司年报，业务涵盖三大板块：K12 学校 业务、素质教育业务（提供校内外体育、艺术等特色培训）、职业教育服务 （产教融合及党校业务）。2025 年上半年，公司实现营业收入 1.71 亿元， 同比增长 12.51%，归母净利润实现扭亏为盈。近期发布公告与智谱华章成立 合资公司，业务版图进一步扩展至 AI 教育板块，凯文教育持股 6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company focuses on intelligent control and commercial display sectors, maintaining a leading position in the market. In H1 2025, the company's education interactive smart panel had a domestic market share of 45.3%, while the MAXHUB brand conference interactive smart panel held a 26.5% market share [6] - The company is actively promoting AI in education, with significant achievements in enhancing teaching efficiency and optimizing educational management through tools like the AI lesson preparation assistant and smart feedback systems [6] - The MAXHUB brand is accelerating its overseas expansion, having received official compatibility certifications from Microsoft Teams and Zoom, and is collaborating with Microsoft for hardware development and cloud integration [6] - The company has made significant advancements in robotics, with over 600 patent applications and the launch of the MAXHUB X7 industrial robot, which has been applied in various industry scenarios [6] - The company maintains a stable operation with promising prospects in AI education and robotics, projecting net profits of 1.041 billion, 1.250 billion, and 1.450 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 22, and 19 [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 22,401 million yuan in 2024 to 29,794 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 971 million yuan in 2024 to 1,450 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a recovery and growth trajectory [5][7] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 21.3% in 2024 to 23.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5]

Summary of Southern Media Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Southern Media - **Industry**: Education Publishing and AI Education Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Southern Media has completed the fall textbook and supplementary materials subscription, ensuring "books before class" by early September [2][4] - The pass rate for junior high school first-class supplementary materials reached 90%, with the "Southern New Classroom" being the only all-subject, all-version approved material in the province [2][4] - The education publishing market in Guangdong is stable, with a steady demand for high school and college entrance exams, indicating continued growth for the company's market-oriented supplementary materials business over the next two to three years [2][6][7] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Southern Media's total profit reached 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, outperforming expectations in the publishing industry [3][4] AI Education Initiatives - Southern Media has developed an AI education matrix, with its core product "Yuejiao Xiangyun" having nearly 16 million users across 19,151 schools [2][8] - The AI assistant application has completed public testing and is set for provincial rollout in early September [2][9] - The company has sold 3,000 units of the AI mouse, generating approximately 600,000 yuan in sales, with a target of 30,000 units for the year [2][9][11] Product Development and Sales - The "Southern Easy Classroom" mini-program, in collaboration with Tencent, has reached 398,000 users, while the smart homework platform with iFLYTEK has been launched [2][10] - Sales of "Yue High School" and "Language Fun Learning" cards reached 4.68 million units, generating over 20 million yuan in revenue in the first half of the year [2][11] Challenges and Strategic Responses - General book revenue declined due to a nationwide drop in sales and a lack of blockbuster titles compared to the previous year [2][14] - Southern Media is actively transforming through digital initiatives like micro-short dramas and has established an 80 million yuan publishing fund to attract quality authors [2][14][16] Future Plans and Market Expansion - The company plans to continue promoting head products and increase the sales of general books despite market pressures [2][15] - Southern Media aims to expand its AI education offerings and has plans for new product launches, including AI teaching aids and digital education platforms [2][10][18] Dividend and Investment Strategy - Southern Media will steadily increase its total dividend to enhance investor satisfaction [2][22] - The company has reduced its holdings in Longban Media and is exploring new investment opportunities in consumer, trendy toys, and animation sectors [2][23] Cash Flow and Financial Management - The decrease in net cash flow was primarily due to prepayments for textbooks, which are expected to be recovered later [2][24] - In a low-interest environment, the company is converting some cash into trading financial assets for better returns [2][25] Educational Policy Impact - The population advantage in Guangdong provides a favorable environment for the textbook and supplementary materials market, with expectations for stable growth despite regulatory challenges [2][12] New Business Opportunities - The inclusion of preschool education in the free education phase presents new opportunities, with Southern Media developing various preschool reading materials and digital platforms [2][29] Overall Outlook - Southern Media is well-positioned in the education publishing sector, benefiting from demographic trends and increasing educational demands, with a strong focus on AI education and digital transformation [2][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [4][32]. Core Insights - The social services sector experienced a 5.18% increase during the reporting period from August 11 to August 24, 2025, which underperformed the broader market by 1.47 percentage points [13][15]. - Key stocks that performed well include Kede Education (39.74%), Dongfang Zhenxuan (22.88%), and Huazhu Group-S (12.91%), while stocks like Keri International (-7.52%) and New Macau International Development (-5.84%) saw declines [15][16]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of AI education products by companies such as Dou Shen Education, Fenbi, and NetEase Youdao, which aim to enhance learning experiences through innovative technology [2][17][18][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The consumer services sector's performance was ranked 13th among 30 industry indices, with a 5.18% increase compared to a 6.65% rise in the CSI 300 index during the same period [13][15]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Dou Shen Education updated its AI training series, enhancing interactive learning experiences [17]. - Fenbi launched an AI exam preparation class and a smart speaker, creating a comprehensive learning solution [18]. - NetEase Youdao introduced several AI education products, including an upgraded answering pen and a comprehensive listening device [19]. - The Supreme Court's new regulation on social security payments will take effect on September 1, 2025, impacting labor relations [20]. Stock Holdings - Notable changes in stock holdings during the reporting period include an increase in Haidilao's holding ratio by 0.84 percentage points to 21.54% and a significant increase in Tianli International Holdings by 3.43 percentage points to 56.95% [3][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Atour, Ctrip Group-S, Xiaocaiyuan, and BOSS Zhipin for investment, with a mid-term preference for China Duty Free, Meituan-W, and others [4][32].

Market Overview - On August 20, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.14%, the STAR Market 50 surged by 3.23%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 0.86%, the ChiNext Index grew by 0.23%, and the Hang Seng Index went up by 0.17% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on August 20 were Beauty Care (+2.42%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+2.36%), Electronics (+2.32%), Automotive (+1.93%), and Food & Beverage (+1.39%). The worst-performing sectors were Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology (-0.07%), Household Appliances (+0.12%), Real Estate (+0.16%), Environmental Protection (+0.2%), and Construction Decoration (+0.2%) [4][6] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on August 20 was 24,484.14 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 14.682 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][6] Important Recommendations - The report highlights Dou Shen Education (300010) as the first education company to implement AI virtual teachers across its entire product line, aiming to capture market share and establish a leading brand in the AI education era [7] - The company is expected to achieve significant market penetration due to its first-mover advantage and rapid iteration of AI education products, with a potential market space reaching hundreds of billions [7] - Revenue projections for Dou Shen Education are estimated at 1,228.96 million yuan in 2025, 2,047.78 million yuan in 2026, and 3,573.90 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 62.38%, 66.63%, and 74.53% [7] Key Insights - The macroeconomic report indicates a high probability of a "residential deposit migration" trend, similar to past occurrences in 2009 and 2014-2015, driven by factors such as declining deposit rates and a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy [8] - The bond market analysis suggests a long-term bullish outlook supported by economic recovery and a tightening credit environment, while short-term risks remain due to fluctuating risk preferences [9][10] - The communication industry report emphasizes the significance of supernode solutions in enhancing AI computing efficiency, with major companies like Huawei and ZTE accelerating their development [11][12] - The chemical industry report notes a surge in demand for fluorinated liquids driven by the growth of AI computing investments and the increasing adoption of immersion cooling technologies [13]

Summary of Dou Shen Education Conference Call Company Overview - Dou Shen Education is positioned to rapidly capture market share in the AI education sector due to its first-mover advantage and continuous product iteration, aiming to become a leading brand in the industry, particularly in AI product experiences for teaching and delivery [2][3] Market Potential - The market for Dou Shen Education is underestimated, with the large language recording market alone estimated at 9 billion. Including resources for English and mathematics, as well as the potential for high-priced small class replacements, the total market size could reach hundreds of billions or even over a trillion [2][5] - Dou Shen Education forecasts revenues of 1.2 billion, 2.03 billion, and 3.54 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 220 million, 430 million, and 880 million, corresponding to net profit margins of 18%, 21%, and 25% [2][6] Competitive Advantages - Dou Shen Education is the first company to launch an AI virtual teacher product that has gained market recognition, with a dedicated AI team of about 70 people focusing on product implementation [3][9] - The company’s management is directly involved in product development, ensuring that the solutions meet teaching and student interaction needs, which enhances market acceptance and experience differentiation [10][11] Market Expectations and Challenges - There are four main discrepancies in market expectations regarding Dou Shen Education: 1. Other companies have launched AI products, but Dou Shen's focus on teaching and delivery quality creates significant experience differences. 2. Doubts about its first-mover advantage and rapid iteration capabilities. 3. Market size assessments, with Dou Shen aiming for 20.3 billion in revenue by 2026, which could yield a 13x PS valuation, corresponding to a target market value of 26.4 billion [4][6] 4. The company aims to improve conversion and retention rates through highly customized one-on-one experiences, which will enhance gross margins and reduce management expense ratios [4][5] Future Growth and Profitability - Dou Shen Education's future outlook is optimistic, with expectations of significant sales scale expansion and user acquisition within the next one to two years due to its first-mover advantage and resource investment in product iteration [13] - The company anticipates that its operating profit margin could rise from the teens to around 30% or higher, driven by the elasticity of profit margins in AI products [15] Stock Performance and Valuation - As of August 19, the company's market capitalization is approximately 18 billion, indicating potential for growth compared to a projected valuation of 63 times for 2026 [7] - Current stock price fluctuations are minimal, reflecting unclear market perceptions of the industry ecosystem, product differentiation, and strategic understanding [7] Comparison with Competitors - Other educational companies are slower in launching similar AI virtual teacher products, with noticeable experience differences compared to Dou Shen. For instance, New Oriental's recent launch of an English virtual teacher still lags behind Dou Shen's offerings [14] - Dou Shen's strategy mirrors successful tactics used by companies like Zuoyebang, which maintained market leadership through early development of basic AI educational tools and dynamic iteration based on user feedback [14] Conclusion - Dou Shen Education is well-positioned for growth in the AI education market, with strong competitive advantages, significant market potential, and a clear path to profitability. The company's proactive approach to product development and market strategy is expected to yield substantial returns for shareholders in the coming years [15]

Group 1: Company Overview and Leadership - Douxin, the Chairman, and Zhao Boqi, the CEO, lead the company alongside other key executives [3] - The company is focused on integrating AI technology into its educational services [5] Group 2: New Product Launch - The company introduced an AI education ecosystem comprising AI Dual Teacher, AI Super Training Ground, and AI Companion Robot, aimed at enhancing quality education through technology [5] - The AI Dual Teacher model combines human teachers with AI to provide personalized learning strategies [5] - The AI Super Training Ground utilizes AI to create customized learning experiences based on individual student data [5][6] - The AI Companion Robot serves multiple roles in a child's learning and daily life, offering guidance and support [6] Group 3: Market Strategy and Product Development - The company employs a strategy of differentiated competition by collaborating with top educators and utilizing advanced AI programming [7] - The English product has already been launched, with plans for additional subjects to follow [7] Group 4: Computational Capacity and Optimization - The company has optimized algorithms to reduce GPU resource requirements, enabling support for 200,000 concurrent users [8] - Strategies include training smaller models and utilizing edge computing to decrease cloud dependency [8] Group 5: Marketing and Sales Channels - The new AI-Class course will leverage existing sales channels and social media platforms for promotion, with a launch date set for July 21, 2025 [9] - The AI Companion Robot will be marketed through various channels, including partnerships with major 3C retailers and promotional collaborations with media and influencers [9]