丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 1009 港股日评：三大指数走势分化，资源股逆 势走强 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 10 月 9 日，港股市场大市成交额达到 3868.2 亿港元，南向资金净买入 30.43 亿港元。 今日港股三大指数走势分化，恒指震荡收跌，科技股疲软拖累大市，盘面呈现明显板块轮动。 板块上看，受海外避险情绪升温及国内政策等因素提振，有 Wind 香港色金属板块走强；而 Wind 香港医药生物、Wind 香港半导体等前期涨幅较高板块则出现部分资金获利了结，今日收跌。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 1009 港股日评：三大指数走势分化，资源股逆 2] 势走强 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 港股市场方面，恒生指数回调 0.29%报 26752.59，恒生科技回调 0.66%报 6471.34，恒生中 国企业指数上涨 0.0 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index declined by 0.76% to 26,344.14, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.58% to 6,257.91, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.07% to 9,370.73 [3] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.22%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.46%, and the Wind All A Index gained 0.52%, while the Dividend Index fell by 0.84% [3] Sector Performance - Among the sectors in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, Electronics (+1.85%), Steel (+1.58%), and Non-ferrous Metals (+1.39%) led the gains, while Defense and Military (-2.59%), Comprehensive Finance (-2.44%), and Comprehensive (-2.39%) were the biggest losers [3] - Concept indices showed significant movements, with the Foxconn Index rising by 15.02%, the OLED Index increasing by 10.30%, and the Apple Index up by 6.57%. Conversely, the Port Transportation Index fell by 3.57%, the Charging Pile Index decreased by 3.34%, and the Fuel Cell Index dropped by 3.19% [3] Market Commentary - On September 22, 2025, the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 290.54 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 12.736 billion [4] - The decline in the Hong Kong stock indices is attributed to macroeconomic factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was already anticipated by the market [4] - The sentiment in the automotive sector was negatively impacted by news of overseas shareholders reducing their stakes, while upcoming increases in port service fees for Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports are expected to suppress the performance of the transportation sector [4] Future Outlook - The Hong Kong market may reach new highs driven by three key factors: 1) AI technology and new consumption trends, which are expected to have significant growth potential [5] 2) Continued inflows of southbound funds, enhancing marginal pricing power [5] 3) The transmission of wide monetary policy to wide credit, alongside potential further interest rate cuts in the U.S. to improve global liquidity [5]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose over 1% during the trading session, reaching a peak of 26,296.6 points, marking a nearly four-year high following the previous day's performance [1] - Other key indices in the Hong Kong stock market also saw collective gains, with the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing nearly 2% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising over 1% [1] - Southbound capital has seen a continuous net inflow for eight consecutive days, with a cumulative net purchase amount reaching a record high of 10,389.4 million HKD year-to-date [1] Group 2 - Recent trends indicate that Southbound capital is primarily flowing into sectors such as retail, automotive, consumer services, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [1] - Changjiang Securities noted that the sustained inflow of Southbound capital is enhancing marginal pricing power, and if domestic low-interest rates persist alongside rising weights in the ERP model, more funds may be allocated to the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The potential for further increases in the Hong Kong stock market is supported by the transmission from broad monetary policy to broad credit, along with possible interest rate cuts in the U.S. that could improve global liquidity, as well as performance realization in the AI industry [1] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180), which focuses on leading technology AI companies, new energy vehicle manufacturers, and chipmakers [2] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) targets leading internet companies in Hong Kong, benefiting from reduced competition [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (520510) has a leading CXO content among all market ETFs and is expected to take over the innovation drug main line [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market in China, particularly in the context of the ongoing U.S.-China trade situation and its implications for investment strategies and market dynamics [1][3][8]. Key Points and Arguments - **AIE Indicator**: The AIE (Asset Investment Equity) indicator, which measures the equity allocation ratio in the market, predicts a future annualized return of 8.64% over the next three years, down from a previous forecast of 12% [1][4]. - **Revised ERP Model**: The revised ERP (Equity Risk Premium) model suggests maintaining a strategic position of around 60% in equities, contrasting with previous recommendations of being fully invested or in cash [1][5]. - **Market Trends**: Despite short-term volatility due to various factors, including U.S.-China trade relations and monetary policy, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend through 2027-2028 [1][6]. - **Internal Market Focus**: The market's attention is shifting from external factors to internal issues such as overcapacity, deflation, real estate downturns, and local government debt, which are becoming critical for future market performance [1][8][9]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Current investor sentiment is nearing historical adjustment levels, indicating potential for market corrections and style rotation risks [1][10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector Rotation**: Recent market style rotation has moved from growth to defensive and then to consumer sectors, with a focus on defensive assets like gold and high-dividend stocks [1][12][18]. - **Investment Value**: High-dividend, low-volatility sectors such as banking, utilities, and transportation are highlighted as having significant investment value in the current market environment [1][13]. - **Impact of Fund Development Plans**: The public fund development action plan may lead to a shift in capital towards underweighted sectors like banking and utilities, negatively impacting sectors like electronics and biomedicine [2][17]. - **Economic Challenges**: The Chinese economy faces challenges such as overcapacity and declining fixed asset investment growth, with corporate earnings yet to confirm a bottom [1][9]. - **Consumer Sector Outlook**: The consumer sector is currently underperforming due to a lack of fundamental support, with expectations for improvement reliant on policy stimulus [1][16]. Conclusion - The A-share market is navigating a complex landscape influenced by both internal economic factors and external trade dynamics. Investors are advised to remain cautious and adaptable to ongoing market changes, focusing on sectors that offer defensive characteristics and potential for recovery.