商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 06 日 豆粕：关税情绪影响，震荡 豆一：关税情绪影响，震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：文华财经，卓创，汇易，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 11 月 5 日 CBOT 大豆日评：中国下调美国部分产品关税一年，大豆上涨。北京德润林 2025 年 11 月 6 日消息：周四，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘温和上涨，反映了中国方面确认将下调对美国部 分产品关税，这使得市场再次关注中美贸易休战协议。中国正式宣布暂停部分美国产品的报复性关税一 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 期货研究 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | （夜盘） 收盘价 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4123 | +47（+1.15%） | 4139 +62 （+1.52%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3073 | + ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Palm oil lacks driving forces and attention should be paid to short - term support [2]. - For soybean oil, US soybeans have stabilized and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly returning [2]. - Both soybean meal and soybean are affected by tariff sentiment and will fluctuate [2]. - Corn will move in a volatile manner [2]. - India's sugar production is expected to recover significantly [2]. - Cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. - Eggs are in an adjustment phase [2]. - For live pigs, the spot contradictions are gradually being released, and a large reverse spread strategy is recommended [2]. - For peanuts, attention should be paid to the spot market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,590 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - session closing price was 8,630 yuan/ton with a 0.47% change. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,138 yuan/ton with a 0.37% change, and night - session closing price was 8,156 yuan/ton with a 0.22% change [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The tariff on US imports will be adjusted, and Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 12.31% to 2 million tons. India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low. Affin Hwang IB expects palm oil prices to recover in Q1 2026 [5][7][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean's 2601 contract daily - session closing price was 4,123 yuan/ton (+47, + 1.15%), and night - session closing price was 4,139 yuan/ton (+62, + 1.52%). DCE soybean meal's 2601 contract daily - session closing price was 3,073 yuan/ton (+45, + 1.49%), and night - session closing price was 3,076 yuan/ton (+37, + 1.22%) [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China will adjust the tariff on US products, and the market's short - term sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals remain cautious [12][14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,134 yuan/ton (-0.23%) during the day and 2,139 yuan/ton (+0.23%) at night. The closing price of C2603 was 2,162 yuan/ton (-0.23%) during the day and 2,168 yuan/ton (+0.28%) at night [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in different regions have different performance, and the prices of imported sorghum and barley are also provided [17]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.12 cents/pound (-0.1), the mainstream spot price was 5,680 yuan/ton (-10), and the futures main - contract price was 5,441 yuan/ton (-40) [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and its exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,615 yuan/ton (0.59%) during the day and 13,630 yuan/ton (0.11%) at night. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,820 yuan/ton (0.13%) during the day and 19,890 yuan/ton (0.35%) at night [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The spot trading of low - basis cotton is good, and the price of pure - cotton yarn is stable. The performance of the Xinjiang and inland markets is different [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2512 was 3,217 yuan/500 kg (1.93%), and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,509 yuan/500 kg (1.23%) [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No specific macro and industry news is provided. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,880 yuan/ton (-100), the Sichuan spot price was 11,500 yuan/ton (-150), and the Guangdong spot price was 12,560 yuan/ton (-200). The price of live pigs 2601 was 11,945 yuan/ton (260) [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of PK601 was 7,802 yuan/ton (-0.10%), and the price of PK603 was 7,848 yuan/ton (-0.18%) [36]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The peanut market in different regions has different performance, with some regions having stable prices and some having weak prices [37].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trends and rankings in the Chinese bond underwriting and syndicate loan markets for the first half of 2025, showcasing the performance of various financial institutions [2][3][5]. - The total issuance of Panda bonds reached 208.25 billion yuan in 2024, with a decrease of 18.12% to 96.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year [5]. - The overall issuance of credit bonds in China for the first half of 2025 was approximately 8.8 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.41% compared to the same period in 2024 [12]. Group 2 - The top three underwriters in the Chinese bond market for the first half of 2025 were CITIC Securities (5.813%), Industrial Bank (5.609%), and Guotai Junan Securities (5.604%) [7]. - In the offshore RMB bond market (excluding certificates of deposit), the leading banks were Bank of China (5.772%), Guotai Junan Securities (4.952%), and CICC (4.330%) [20]. - The issuance of offshore bonds by Chinese enterprises (excluding certificates of deposit) exceeded 733.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a growth of approximately 13.65% compared to the previous year [21]. Group 3 - The total issuance of syndicated loans in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) reached 216.6 billion USD in the first half of 2025, a decline of 18% year-on-year [26]. - The top three underwriters in the Asia-Pacific syndicated loan market were Bank of China (6.12%), DBS Bank (4.56%), and Korea National Bank (4.15%) [28]. - The Chinese onshore syndicated loan market saw a significant decline of 67% in issuance, while the offshore market experienced a growth of 50% [30]. Group 4 - The issuance of green syndicated loans in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) increased by 61% year-on-year, reaching 33.4 billion USD, marking a historical high since 2014 [35]. - The major contributors to the growth of green loans were Australia, Singapore, and China, accounting for 27%, 13%, and 12% of the market share, respectively [35].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China for two energy companies, Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer [1] - Approximately half of the ethane produced in the U.S. is exported to China, primarily for use in the petrochemical industry [1] - The restrictions were initially imposed in response to China's limitations on rare earth product exports, but were modified on June 25, allowing loading of ethane products on ships bound for China, with unloading requiring authorization [1] Group 2 - The U.S. and China have reached a consensus on expanding rare earth product exports to the U.S., indicating a planned progression of the "trade truce" between the two nations [3] - A spokesperson from China's Ministry of Commerce stated that under the guidance of the consensus between the two heads of state, both sides have reached a principled agreement during trade talks held in London [3] - The spokesperson emphasized the importance of mutual cooperation to promote healthy, stable, and sustainable development of U.S.-China economic and trade relations [3]

Core Viewpoint - Following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson suggests that investors should buy U.S. stocks on dips, as the U.S.-China trade truce has reduced the likelihood of an economic recession [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The downgrade by Moody's has led to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, surpassing 4.5%, which may increase the likelihood of a stock market pullback [1] - After the credit rating downgrade, S&P 500 futures fell by 1.2% on Monday [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Moody's cited the persistent expansion of the U.S. budget deficit without signs of narrowing as the reason for the downgrade [1] - The downgrade has reignited concerns about the attractiveness of U.S. assets amid ongoing global trade uncertainties [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market in China, particularly in the context of the ongoing U.S.-China trade situation and its implications for investment strategies and market dynamics [1][3][8]. Key Points and Arguments - **AIE Indicator**: The AIE (Asset Investment Equity) indicator, which measures the equity allocation ratio in the market, predicts a future annualized return of 8.64% over the next three years, down from a previous forecast of 12% [1][4]. - **Revised ERP Model**: The revised ERP (Equity Risk Premium) model suggests maintaining a strategic position of around 60% in equities, contrasting with previous recommendations of being fully invested or in cash [1][5]. - **Market Trends**: Despite short-term volatility due to various factors, including U.S.-China trade relations and monetary policy, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend through 2027-2028 [1][6]. - **Internal Market Focus**: The market's attention is shifting from external factors to internal issues such as overcapacity, deflation, real estate downturns, and local government debt, which are becoming critical for future market performance [1][8][9]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Current investor sentiment is nearing historical adjustment levels, indicating potential for market corrections and style rotation risks [1][10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector Rotation**: Recent market style rotation has moved from growth to defensive and then to consumer sectors, with a focus on defensive assets like gold and high-dividend stocks [1][12][18]. - **Investment Value**: High-dividend, low-volatility sectors such as banking, utilities, and transportation are highlighted as having significant investment value in the current market environment [1][13]. - **Impact of Fund Development Plans**: The public fund development action plan may lead to a shift in capital towards underweighted sectors like banking and utilities, negatively impacting sectors like electronics and biomedicine [2][17]. - **Economic Challenges**: The Chinese economy faces challenges such as overcapacity and declining fixed asset investment growth, with corporate earnings yet to confirm a bottom [1][9]. - **Consumer Sector Outlook**: The consumer sector is currently underperforming due to a lack of fundamental support, with expectations for improvement reliant on policy stimulus [1][16]. Conclusion - The A-share market is navigating a complex landscape influenced by both internal economic factors and external trade dynamics. Investors are advised to remain cautious and adaptable to ongoing market changes, focusing on sectors that offer defensive characteristics and potential for recovery.