行业报告 | 行业深度研究 银行 证券研究报告 2025 年贷款利率下行幅度有望显著放缓 1. 我国商业性贷款利率定价已基本市场化，近年来贷款利率持续下行 目前贷款定价主要有三类模型：①LPR 定价法实现了政策引导和市场自主定 价之间的平衡，但近年来在定价基准、点差表现等方面也出现了一些新变化。 ②内部资金转移定价（FTP）聚焦银行内部定价管理，LPR 改革后商业银行 已构建起"LPR→贷款 FTP→贷款利率"的定价机制。③成本加成法是传统 的贷款外部定价模型，认为银行贷款利率应是资金成本、运营成本、风险成 本、资本成本、税收成本等各项贷款成本和银行目标收益之和。 LPR 改革后，除 2021 年货币政策回归常态化期间，其他大部分时候贷款利 率都在大幅快速下行。期间三个阶段的贷款利率走势值得关注：LPR 改革深 化和宽松货币政策加码后的快速下行阶段（2020 年）、信贷供需失衡主导的 大幅下行阶段（2022 年）、贷款利率和 LPR 点差压降放缓的阶段（2024 年）。 2. 央行视角看当前贷款定价约束 从央行意图和监管成效看，预计 2025 年贷款利率降幅有限。其一，货币政 策延续宽松，但更重视呵护银行息差 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is expected to lower financing costs for both enterprises and residents, thereby stimulating economic activity and consumer confidence [6][7][8]. Group 1: Impact on Enterprises - The one-year LPR has decreased to 3%, and the five-year LPR has dropped to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous period, leading to a reduction in overall financing costs for the real economy [6]. - Companies like Maoming Boge Port Railway Co. have reported significant savings, with annual interest expenses reduced by 770,000 yuan, easing operational pressures [6]. - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, which is about 50 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a trend of declining loan rates [6][7]. Group 2: Impact on Residents - Homebuyers are benefiting from reduced mortgage interest burdens, with some banks adjusting their rates in response to the LPR decrease [8][9]. - For a 1 million yuan, 30-year mortgage, a 10 basis point drop in LPR can reduce monthly payments by 54 yuan and total interest payments by 19,000 yuan [9]. - In major cities, banks have quickly adjusted first-home loan rates to around 3.05%, which is expected to boost housing market activity and consumer purchasing power [9][10]. Group 3: Stimulating Consumer Spending - The LPR decline is also expected to lower costs for large consumer purchases, alleviating financial pressure on residents looking to improve their living conditions [11]. - For instance, a 300,000 yuan, 3-year consumer loan can save nearly 3,600 yuan in interest compared to last year, which can encourage spending on home renovations and other large purchases [11]. - Banks are actively expanding consumer credit offerings, with some products now offering rates as low as 3%, which is a 25 basis point decrease from the previous year [11].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China announced a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for the first time this year, with the 5-year LPR at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous period [1] - The reduction in LPR is expected to lower financing costs for businesses and residents, thereby boosting market confidence and supporting stable growth in the real economy [1][2] - The adjustment aligns with market expectations, as the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, now a key pricing anchor for LPR, was also lowered [2] LPR and Loan Rates - The LPR decrease is anticipated to stimulate credit demand and unleash investment potential for businesses and consumer spending [2] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points year-on-year, while the average for personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down about 55 basis points [2][7] - The actual loan rates may not necessarily decrease as the LPR is only one component; banks add their own margins based on various factors [3] Deposit Rate Adjustments - Alongside the LPR decrease, major banks have also lowered deposit rates, with the one-year deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time [4][5] - Specific reductions include a 5 basis point drop in demand deposit rates and a 15 basis point drop in various term deposit rates, with long-term deposit rates seeing larger reductions [4] - The overall adjustment in deposit rates is greater than that of the LPR, indicating a strategy to protect bank interest margins while encouraging lending [5] Non-Interest Costs - Future adjustments to the LPR will consider multiple factors to maintain a balance among growth, interest margins, exchange rates, and foreign trade [6] - The focus will also be on reducing non-interest costs, such as mortgage fees, guarantee fees, and intermediary service fees, which significantly impact the overall financing costs for businesses, especially small and private enterprises [7]

202 5 年Q2 HUATAI FUTURES RESEARCH REPORT 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z001 461 7 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 2 1 境内 中间价形成机制 汇率走势 逆周期因子机制 LPR改革和利率传导 跨境融资宏观审慎调节 中长期分析框架 境外 离岸中心功能 QFII/QDII CIPS系统 短期分析框架 国际收支 利率平价 相对经济强度 资金供需 市场供需 政策与外部环境 CNY/CNH 方向 波动 汇率工具与成本评估 对冲策略 风险管理 汇率敞口识别（经营 / 财务） 工具配置 （期货 / 远期 / 结构化） 预算锁定与目标匹配（预算汇率 / 盈利稳定性） 滚动对冲机制 量化 合约筛选：基于波动率 /流动性 /期限结构 对冲比率动态调整：择时 +因子权重微调 3 | 工具类型 | 操作方式 | 基本逻辑 | 核心功能 | 典型应用案例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1. 通过银行或交易平台下单 | | - 即时汇率兑换 | - 企业支付进口货款 | | 即期外汇 | 2. 按实时汇率成交 | 按当前市场价格即时买卖货 ...