作者：金融界银行研究院院长 陈国汪 2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日—6日召开。会议提出，要继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。"把促 进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工 具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融 资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。畅通货币政策传导机制，发挥好政 策利率引导作用，做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款 综合融资成本工作覆盖面，推动明示个人贷款综合融资成本"。 人民银行2026年的货币政策将对不同类型银行业金融机构经营发展带来不同的影响。银行业金融机构如 何利用货币政策，错位经营，推动自身差异化特色化发展，将对整个十五五期间的发展带来深远影响。 核心政策要点预测 央行2026年工作会议明确适度宽松货币政策总基调，根据国内经济金融运行情况，考虑美联储可能大幅 降息和中美贸易战等因素，预计2026年货币政策的核心量化特征包括： 降准降息空间：预计全年降准1-2次（释放长期流动性1-2万亿元），降息10-25BP（5年期 ...

来源：华夏时报 作为"十五五"开局之年首场重要的金融工作规划，2026年中国人民银行工作会议于1月5日至6日在北京 召开，为全年金融工作划定清晰路线。 会议明确2026年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周 期调节力度，提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效，深化金融改革和更高水平对外开放，增强宏观政 策前瞻性针对性协同性，着力扩大内需、优化供给，防范化解风险、稳定社会预期，为经济稳定增长、 高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境。 在多位受访人士看来，此次会议传递的政策信号既延续了中央经济工作会议的基调，又在工具运用、传 导机制等细节上进一步细化，凸显出"稳增长、调结构、防风险"之间的统筹平衡，预示着2026年货币政 策将更注重精准性与有效性。 货币政策司迎第七任司长 在总量政策层面，会议明确"继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策"，要求"把促进经济高质量发展、物价合 理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，对政策工具运用则提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工 具。" "中央经济工作会议明确2026年要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，中国人民银行将全面贯彻落实会议精 神，加 ...

北京一家银行分析师在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示，这一表述变化是货币政策根据经济金融形 势作出的精准调整，标志着融资成本调控目标由"持续下行"转向"巩固既有成效"。 从现实情况看，我国社会融资成本已处于历史较低水平。有关数据显示，11月份企业新发放贷款（本外 币）加权平均利率为3.1%，较上年同期下降约30个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利 率为3.1%，较上年同期下降约3个基点。 上述银行分析师进一步指出，此次表述变化既是对前期降成本政策成效的肯定，也体现了政策取向的稳 健性。其核心在于通过维持融资成本低位运行，稳定市场预期、减轻经营主体负担，同时避免过度宽松 带来潜在风险。这也意味着，后续政策将更加侧重于完善利率传导机制、降低非利息成本等方式，巩固 降成本成果，而非单纯追求利率的绝对下行。 苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟也对记者表示，社会综合融资成本已处于相对合意的较低区间，当前的关键 在于防止其出现不必要的反弹，保持金融环境对实体经济的支持力度稳定。这体现了货币政策在稳增长 与防风险之间寻求平衡的精准性与灵活性。 会议还研究了下一阶段货币政策的主要思路，提出要发挥增量政策与存量政策的集成效应， ...

12月22日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布的新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）显示， 12月1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，维持上期报价不变。今年以来，1年期和5年期以上LPR 分别累计下降10个基点，促进贷款利率稳中有降。 LPR报价由央行政策利率和报价行报价加点共同决定。自今年5月LPR报价跟随当月央行降息下降10个 基点后，作为央行政策利率的7天期逆回购利率再无调整，这意味着LPR报价的定价基础未发生变化。 与此同时，今年以来商业银行整体处于偏低的净息差水平，也导致报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的 意愿。 此外，央行今年以来持续畅通利率传导机制，也推动了社会综合融资成本下行。一方面，央行引导各地 逐步有序加入明示企业贷款综合融资成本试点，有效保障金融消费者知情权；另一方面，央行强化利率 政策执行和监督，督促金融机构坚持风险定价原则，合理确定存贷款利率，维护市场竞争秩序。同时， 充分发挥利率自律机制作用，大力治理资金空转、手工补息等行为，稳定银行负债成本。 央行最新数据显示，11月企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约30个基 点；个人住房新发放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations and previous values [1][2] Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, indicating a net liquidity injection of 110 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [1] - The stability of the LPR since May 2025 reflects a steady macroeconomic environment, driven by strong export performance and growth in new productive sectors [2][3] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was reported at 3.1% in October, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the same rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - Economic growth momentum is expected to slow down, with recent macro data indicating declines in investment, consumption, and industrial production [3] - There is potential for new monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts, to stimulate internal financing demand and support economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 [3] - Regulatory measures may be introduced to lower the 5-year LPR, aiming to reduce the burden of high mortgage rates on residents and stimulate housing market demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans for the sixth consecutive month, reflecting a stable interest rate environment amid ongoing pressure on bank net interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: LPR and Interest Rates - The LPR remains unchanged due to the lack of adjustment in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as the pricing anchor for the LPR [1]. - As of the end of Q3, the net interest margin of Chinese commercial banks stands at 1.42%, unchanged from the previous quarter, indicating a stabilization in the downward trend of interest margins [1]. - The recent trend of stabilizing interest margins is attributed to measures such as deposit rate reductions and improvements in the liability structure of banks [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory authorities are enhancing guidelines for financial institutions to stabilize loan pricing and curb irrational competition, aiming for sustainable banking operations [2]. - The PBOC's recent report emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships for macroeconomic balance and resource allocation [2]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC should use self-regulatory mechanisms and window guidance to ensure that loan and deposit rates reflect policy rate adjustments while maintaining risk pricing and interest margin stability [2]. Group 3: Financing Costs - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points [3]. - The PBOC is guiding localities to participate in pilot programs aimed at reducing comprehensive financing costs for enterprises, benefiting numerous small and medium-sized enterprises [3]. - The decline in financing costs for businesses and households indicates a relatively loose monetary condition and ample funding supply, meeting the effective financing needs of the real economy [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for the sixth consecutive month, reflecting a stable interest rate environment amid ongoing pressures on bank net interest margins [1] Group 1: LPR and Interest Rates - The LPR remains unchanged due to the lack of adjustment in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as the pricing anchor for the LPR [1] - As of the end of Q3, the net interest margin for commercial banks in China stands at 1.42%, unchanged from the previous quarter, indicating a stabilization in the downward trend of interest margins [1] - The recent report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that the stabilization of interest margins is supported by measures such as deposit rate reductions and improvements in the liability structure of banks [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory efforts aim to stabilize loan pricing and prevent irrational competition among financial institutions, with a focus on maintaining sustainable banking operations [2] - The PBOC's report emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to ensure effective functioning of the market-oriented interest rate system [2] - Analysts suggest that the central bank should use self-regulatory mechanisms and window guidance to ensure that loan and deposit rates reflect policy rate adjustments while maintaining risk pricing and interest margin stability [2] Group 3: Financing Costs - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points [3] - The PBOC is actively guiding localities to participate in pilot programs aimed at reducing comprehensive financing costs for enterprises, benefiting numerous small and medium-sized enterprises [3] - The decline in financing costs for both enterprises and residents indicates a relatively loose monetary condition and ample funding supply, meeting the effective financing needs of the real economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, reflecting stable market expectations and a consistent monetary policy environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections LPR Announcement - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged from previous values [1]. - The announcement aligns with market expectations, indicating stability in the monetary policy [1]. Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.4%, while 190 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 110 billion yuan [1]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a downward trend, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 5.6 basis points to 1.364% and the 7-day Shibor down by 2.7 basis points to 1.46% [1]. Economic Context and Future Outlook - The stability of the LPR is attributed to a strong macroeconomic performance, with key indicators such as investment, consumption, and industrial production showing signs of decline [2][3]. - The potential for new monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts, is anticipated to stimulate domestic demand and support economic growth [3]. - The regulatory body may consider lowering the 5-year LPR to address high mortgage rates and boost housing market demand [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, indicating stability in monetary policy amid mixed economic signals [1][2] Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months since a reduction in May, aligning with market expectations due to stable policy rates [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to the unchanged pricing basis from the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate and a lack of incentive for banks to lower LPR amid historically low net interest margins [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - Recent economic data shows a decline in domestic investment, consumption, and industrial production, raising concerns about growth momentum [2] - The central bank's upcoming monetary policy may include new interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate economic activity, particularly in light of low inflation levels [2] - The anticipated fiscal measures, including two 500 billion yuan initiatives, are expected to support the economy and potentially lead to lower LPR rates, thereby encouraging financing demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a stable monetary policy environment amid ongoing pressures on bank net interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR remains unchanged due to the lack of adjustments in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as the pricing anchor for the LPR [1]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average interest rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points year-on-year [1]. - The PBOC is actively promoting a reduction in the overall financing costs for society, with all 30 provinces participating in a pilot program aimed at improving transparency in corporate loan costs [1]. Group 2: Financing Conditions and Regulatory Environment - The current low financing costs for enterprises and residents indicate a relatively loose monetary condition and ample funding supply, effectively meeting the financing needs of the real economy [2]. - Regulatory authorities are reinforcing pricing behavior guidelines for financial institutions to stabilize loan pricing and prevent irrational competition [2]. - Future regulatory efforts may focus on reducing financing costs through fiscal subsidies and structural tools rather than direct interest rate cuts [2]. Group 3: Future Directions - The PBOC's upcoming monetary policy execution report emphasizes the need to enhance the interest rate adjustment framework and improve the market-based formation mechanism for interest rates [2]. - Continuous reforms to the LPR are planned to ensure it more accurately reflects the actual loan market interest rates [2].